Author Topic: Failing Trader  (Read 4456 times)

UnleashHell

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Re: Failing Trader
« Reply #50 on: July 07, 2018, 04:59:24 AM »
you have already failed in trading. not sure what you see that indicates you'll be successful in the future.
if you still think you can beat the market then I'd suggest you throw 90% of your savings into index funds (you know - the proven builder of wealth) and take 10% and trade with just that account.

I have been pretty successful doing individual shares but its damn hard work. I don't have the time for it.
I am now set up that all new contributions go to index funds and my IRA contains funds that I have historically used for individual investments. Even that I am slowly converting. 1/3 of that account is now index funds and I'm slowly moving the rest over.
At this point in time I am approx 80% index and 20% shares of individual companies. the 80% will increase as I sell of my positions because I do not have the time or inclination to carry on going that route. I'd say that 95% of my time spend researching shares led to me NOT buying stuff. Thats a lot of time invested on nothing. Its the right way to do it but I find myself with a life and no time for that.

Even though I've been successful in beating the s&p consistently I've also had my failures - a few investments that went to zero.
my return of a few % above the s&p is not worth the time investment or the risk of failure any more.


I'd suggest you maintain one small account for trading if you still feel the need to do it.

Father Dougal

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Re: Failing Trader
« Reply #51 on: July 07, 2018, 06:28:48 AM »
...

Has anyone on here gone through any type of failure or loss of similar magnitude in real estate, trading or another endeavor and stuck with it long enough to come out ahead on the other side? I am curious, how did you get through the discouragement that came with the failure?

...

Can anyone relate?

Oh yes. Several times.

I lost money once on a so-called Absolute Return mutual fund, managed (and I use that term loosely) by one of the biggest wealth managers. I know, what a sucker.

This led me to question my strategy and so I moved out of actively managed funds and into the welcoming arms of the low-cost diversified portfolio crowd.

After that, at times my portfolio value has fallen during market corrections. I have not changed my strategy, just stuck with it. I did not get discouraged because I believed it to be the best for me.

So the question you are not asking, but perhaps should, is: is my strategy right for me and do I believe in it?  You seem keen to tell us why you are right, but perhaps you are trying to convince yourself rather than us?  Next questions are, what am I trying to achieve and what choices do I have?

Good luck.
« Last Edit: July 07, 2018, 06:30:35 AM by Father Dougal »

Raymond Reddington

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Re: Failing Trader
« Reply #52 on: July 07, 2018, 04:48:23 PM »
Trading is not a good strategy for the little guy.

Buying and holding dividend producing securities (and reinvesting the dividends) is one of the best ways to go if you want to go the individual positions route. Otherwise, invest in indexes.

Technical analysis has shown to have serious flaws, and does not typically have any merit. The only aspect of technical trading, I'd argue, that has any support is the idea of a support "base". However, patterns in general mean very little, especially over the short term, and must be looked at in the context of the greater market. And the only reason the idea of a support base in a chart has any value is it shows there is willingness to buy a stock at that price point, because it is seen as a good buy at that price point.

Which is, in a nutshell, value investing.

You buy at that price point and hold for the dividends, and you reinvest them which gives you an effective form of dollar cost averaging.

stimepy

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Re: Failing Trader
« Reply #53 on: July 09, 2018, 08:58:00 AM »
You sir, are either a Troll dedicated to this ruse OR someone who needs some serious help.   I am going to believe you need the help.

So let me lay it bare.  You suck.   You speak of Warren Buffet, Value, and all manner of why I should keep trading, but as other have said, you lost in a Bull Market.  That my friend means you need to stop period.   All your posts (wall of texts) have basically said is I don't have a fucking clue what I am doing.  Yes, it sound good, but obviously it's not your cup of tea.  Just stop.

Let me give you two quotes:

Quote
"The way to make money in the stock market is to buy good stocks. Hold them until they go up. And if they donít go up, donít buy them!" - Will Rogers

"To invest successfully over a lifetime does not require a stratospheric IQ, unusual business insights or inside information. What's needed is a sound intellectual framework for making decisions and the ability to keep emotions from corroding that framework." - Warren Buffet

You have done neither.  And hell, one of these two is a dead comedian and HE beat you in THIS stock market!

IF you must trade in stocks, may I recommend you not.   Instead do a Warren Buffet does buy and hold.  Only buy something IF you are willing to own it for Life otherwise pass.   

Keep on investing in those indexes with your 401k, and if you choose to stop trading (Like you should!) just put that extra in indexes or bonds and to emphasize Stop trading!

boarder42

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Re: Failing Trader
« Reply #54 on: July 09, 2018, 09:12:42 AM »
You sir, are either a Troll dedicated to this ruse OR someone who needs some serious help.   I am going to believe you need the help.

So let me lay it bare.  You suck.   You speak of Warren Buffet, Value, and all manner of why I should keep trading, but as other have said, you lost in a Bull Market.  That my friend means you need to stop period.   All your posts (wall of texts) have basically said is I don't have a fucking clue what I am doing.  Yes, it sound good, but obviously it's not your cup of tea.  Just stop.

Let me give you two quotes:

Quote
"The way to make money in the stock market is to buy good stocks. Hold them until they go up. And if they donít go up, donít buy them!" - Will Rogers

"To invest successfully over a lifetime does not require a stratospheric IQ, unusual business insights or inside information. What's needed is a sound intellectual framework for making decisions and the ability to keep emotions from corroding that framework." - Warren Buffet

You have done neither.  And hell, one of these two is a dead comedian and HE beat you in THIS stock market!

IF you must trade in stocks, may I recommend you not.   Instead do a Warren Buffet does buy and hold.  Only buy something IF you are willing to own it for Life otherwise pass.   

Keep on investing in those indexes with your 401k, and if you choose to stop trading (Like you should!) just put that extra in indexes or bonds and to emphasize Stop trading!

this is pretty well said and a summary of all the OP needs to know here.

basically what the OP asked is i've been pointed a loaded gun at my face for the last 8 years and everytime i pull the trigger i die.  can you all tell me how you point a gun loaded with live ammo at your face and dont die.  the response stop pointing the guy at your face ... but i want to point it at my face b/c i've seen these people do it and they were successful.  doesnt matter its unlikely you can be as successful.  but look at all these points i can make that dont actually prove anything other than i still dont know how to point a gun away from my face.
« Last Edit: July 09, 2018, 09:40:04 AM by boarder42 »

talltexan

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Re: Failing Trader
« Reply #55 on: July 09, 2018, 12:46:00 PM »
Guys, perhaps we need to tone it down a little. OP has been given great advice. It's hard to give up on the idea of trading, I still retain a few individual stocks, too. OP, please let us know what happens, we're on this FIRE journey with you.

But you'll finish sooner--on average--if you follow the advice in this topic.

boarder42

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Re: Failing Trader
« Reply #56 on: July 09, 2018, 12:55:46 PM »
Guys, perhaps we need to tone it down a little. OP has been given great advice. It's hard to give up on the idea of trading, I still retain a few individual stocks, too. OP, please let us know what happens, we're on this FIRE journey with you.

But you'll finish sooner--on average--if you follow the advice in this topic.

the OP isnt currently on a FIRE journey - they are saving blowing 75% of their income on gambling.  its quite obvious.

stimepy

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Re: Failing Trader
« Reply #57 on: July 09, 2018, 02:02:31 PM »
Guys, perhaps we need to tone it down a little. OP has been given great advice. It's hard to give up on the idea of trading, I still retain a few individual stocks, too. OP, please let us know what happens, we're on this FIRE journey with you.

But you'll finish sooner--on average--if you follow the advice in this topic.

I agree OP has been given Great advice, which I really hope they follow, but it does seem OP still wants to defend their trading.  If OP could keep it to a minimum, it'd be fine, but given an 80k Loss and the walls of texts, they just needs to stop.

It's kinda like an alcoholic.  You and I are ok for a drink every now and again, the alcoholic, wants the bottle and more.  They just shouldn't drink.   In this case I would say it's similar.
Maybe in time OP can trade again, but they needs to step away.  Find something else for a bit, maybe forever.

Dabnasty

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Re: Failing Trader
« Reply #58 on: July 10, 2018, 02:42:33 PM »
I think the Beatles have taken to "investing"

TripleM

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Re: Failing Trader
« Reply #59 on: July 13, 2018, 03:26:22 PM »
Can anyone relate?

Sorry no.  You spent 10 years in an amazing bull market losing $80K with a high salary and you want to go back and try the same failed strategy? That sounds crazy. You should be sitting on a nice fat portfolio just from average market returns over that period.
Agreed. Trading is a zero sum game and a loser for 90%+ individuals.

Dont trade.  You should treat this as if you have a gambling problem IMHO.  Your lack of confidence is actually your rational brain trying to talk to you.

I think I know what company you are talking about (E?).

Lots of good stuff said by all of you, thank you! Some of you hate me? :)

I have put enough time into this journey and have not gotten the results I anticipated, so realistically I am going to have to find a different avenue to support my early retirement dreams or put my energy towards a career path that I actually enjoy more than my current job.

I thought trading would provide me an avenue for leaving the corporate world and never looking back, but it is just too hard and too stressful even for the pros who figure it out.
« Last Edit: July 14, 2018, 10:57:51 AM by TripleM »

boarder42

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Re: Failing Trader
« Reply #60 on: July 13, 2018, 03:48:58 PM »
No one here hates you we want to see you succeed. You think active trading is the answer at a 75% savings rate just index. You have no reason to do anything else there are no shortcuts you can't go back in time and fix what you've done but you can correct your path now.

Look at what you have lost the last 6 years. Do you want to come back here in 6 years repeating the same story.

A high savings rate invested in index funds is the safest fast way to wealth and FIRE.
« Last Edit: July 13, 2018, 03:51:56 PM by boarder42 »

ysette9

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Re: Failing Trader
« Reply #61 on: July 13, 2018, 05:49:31 PM »
Can anyone relate?

Sorry no.  You spent 10 years in an amazing bull market losing $80K with a high salary and you want to go back and try the same failed strategy? That sounds crazy. You should be sitting on a nice fat portfolio just from average market returns over that period.
Agreed. Trading is a zero sum game and a loser for 90%+ individuals.

I briefly worked for a company that was the largest and most influential trader in the world.  I also worked on the systems improvement strategy for their #1 competitor, and could talk in detail about risk books, arbitrage and the strategies real serious traders use to make money (BTW, the best are ADD psychopath types without emotions).  These companies invested millions in the most advanced trading systems and spend billions to own assets in the markets they traded to have insider advantages.  Both companies had decades of successful profits. 

The company I was hired to help in a new tech play was so confident, that after a trading period where the traders failed to deliver expected earnings, management decided to start forcing volatility and market corrections in the asset classes they traded by influencing by using its owned assets to spike demand or supply.   They bet even more capital.  I fear this is where you would be heading, if you experienced extended success.  Their confidence helped lead to the largest corporate meltdown in history.  5k people were laid off.

Dont trade.  You should treat this as if you have a gambling problem IMHO.  Your lack of confidence is actually your rational brain trying to talk to you.

I think I know what company you are talking about (E?).

Lots of good stuff said by all of you, thank you! Some of you hate me? :)

I have put enough time into this journey and have not gotten the results I anticipated, so realistically I am going to have to find a different avenue to support my early retirement dreams or put my energy towards a career path that I actually enjoy more than my current job.

I thought trading would provide me an avenue for leaving the corporate world and never looking back, but it is just too hard and too stressful even for the pros who figure it out.
Your high savings rate combined with index investing will allow you to leave the corporate world and never look back. You have the hardest part down already. You just need to tweak your investing (to something so much easier!) and you will be there. See my previous posts. You absolutely can do this and we want to see you succeed. You are so close. Most people who post in these forums aren’t able to make FI happen as easily as you can. All you have to do is stop gambling your savings away.

boarder42

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Re: Failing Trader
« Reply #62 on: July 14, 2018, 11:31:43 AM »
Seriously man. Don't post it if you don't want it quoted. Asking people to edit things you said out of your posts means it shouldn't be said.

Retire-Canada

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Re: Failing Trader
« Reply #63 on: July 14, 2018, 01:27:12 PM »
Seriously man. Don't post it if you don't want it quoted. Asking people to edit things you said out of your posts means it shouldn't be said.

This is true.

ysette9

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Re: Failing Trader
« Reply #64 on: July 15, 2018, 10:59:55 AM »
Children, can you please take this offline? I’m interested in the OP’s situation, not your debate.