Is this guy a bear? Or is world economy "screwed"?

[Fru-Gal]

https://mtmalinen.substack.com/p/what-is-wrong-with-the-world-economy

[dougules]

Is it real, or is it just click-bait?  I don't want to feed the click-bait bear. 

[bwall]

Nothing new to see here.

Typical run of the mill, garden variety European style pessimism. Economics is his field, so he can be pessimistic in that field. You see the same thing in biology, ecology, physics, agriculture, psychology, etc.

An optimistic European academic is not taken seriously by his peer group or wider society.

[ixtap]

Is it real, or is it just click-bait?  I don't want to feed the click-bait bear.

Well, if the OP can't provide a summary or comments, I don't click.

[Fru-Gal]

Thanks @bwall!

[BicycleB]

I don't mind reading Substack.

Author says that everything is in a bubble; junk bond meltdown will trigger broader asset devaluation of assets; he doesn't see any way out. Notably, he specifies that the carnage begins "late summer/fall".

Links to author's newsletter / "warnings" / economy-and-markets-prediction service are provided; he's selling subscriptions. Bwall is right, it's clickbait.

Notably, links to past predictions are active despite their poor performance. 8/3/20's prediction for example predicted "mayhem in global markets" was likely due to then-recent "collapses" in Saudi and Kuwaiti stock markets.

Per Yahoo Finance, rounded to nearest whole number. As far as I can tell, the S&P hasn't been below 3271 at close of trading on even one single day since he predicted "mayhem."
S&P 500 close on prior trading day, 3271
S&P 500 close on 8/3/20, 3295
S&P 500 close on 8/10/20, 3360
S&P 500 close on 7/9/21, 4370


So, yes he's a bear.

[ender]

Well, of course, top is in :-)

[bacchi]

Using the stopped clock rule, an economist is going to be right about the market decline eventually. She/he will then use that "smart timing capital" to gain more clicks the next time the market is on a tear. "Mr So-and-So, who correctly predicted the 202x crash, predicts a crash will happen in 2033. Click here to read all about it!"