It is to naive to think that if I had the balls and enough time, and went 80% stock and only 20% bonds and ride out any crashes without selling, it has to go up eventually? or is this crazy thinking....
I don't think you can just say "
Hey I will suck it up".
Say your target to retire is 1.5m and you are up to 1m, you can't really just "
suck it up' when your 1m drops steadily over a couple of years, the whole time you don't know when it will stop dropping and you see a decade or more of savings disintegrate, more and more every day with no end in sight, down to 800k, steadily to 700k, eventually dropping below 600k, then down towards 500k not knowing when it will stop. Some people can tolerate this. Some can't. I don't think it's something to be ashamed of by saying one doesn't have "the balls" to tolerate something like this. I think someone would have to be a freak of nature to be able to tolerate it.
That link I posed by Larry Swedroe says to find an allocation based on each of
ability,
willingness and
need to take risk, and using the lowest, to ensure you don't screw it up and end up
worse than if you just did it sensibly.
I am not in a rush since when I FIRE, i'll still trickle at work (I know thats a bad word...I kinda like my work and will hang my head in shame)...
If you can continue working, work acts as a form of bonds (as does SS, pension, rental income, lack of paying rent if you own your own home - they all reduce your market risk when the market goes down which is the point of bonds).
If you actually don't mind your work and are able to continue, you have it made! You are truly one of the lucky ones. This changes everything. You now don't have a "need" to take more risk than you are comfortable with, and can just focus on your ability and willingness to take risk. We are not all in your fortunate situation, which is why some of us are forced to take more risk whether we like it or not. If you don't need to do it, why on earth would you?