Conspiracy economics: Martin Armstrong/Princeton Economics and the pi-cycle

[Sjalabais]

I just watched a very interesting, and clearly biased, documentary about Martin Armstrong and Princeton Economics ("The Forecaster"). He was portrayed as a sort of history scion with a knack of very accurate financial predictions. His theory is a deterministic, history and pi (3.14) based cycle, that reliably tells us about financial panics. Octobre 2015 is thus another point in time when markets are supposed to crash.

Anyone here who has good knowledge of this concept and what to make of it?

[tyir]

There was a small discussion here: http://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/worldwide-crash-us-investing-opportunity/

It was supposed to happen October 1. Why would pi have to do with financial cycles?

[brainfart]

I'd rather base my predictions on e = 2.718281828459045 or i where iČ = −1. Way cooler than pi.

[Sjalabais]

Thanks for the link - didn't find it when I searched the forum. The pi thing is mentioned in the thread.

The whole idea sounds incredibly bogus, but I'm easily sceptical about today's system, build on hot air. And Armstrong was portrayed as someone who predicted just about every crisis since the late 80s. So, who knows, maybe some guys get lucky more often than others. :)

[arebelspy]

Octobre 2015 is thus another point in time when markets are supposed to crash.

It's fun to read about predictions like this after the fact.  With October come, and gone, apparently this guy missed a prediction.  ;)

[MDM]

I'd rather base my predictions on e = 2.718281828459045 or i where iČ = −1. Way cooler than pi.

Go with Euler Hedging, Inc. and use e^i*pi + 1 = 0.  Of course, zero may be where your investment total ends....

[ShoulderThingThatGoesUp]

I prefer market timing based on Avogadro's number.

[Sjalabais]

I first thought you were basing your conspiracies on avocados. This strike of brilliance made me green of envy. Hence, I misread you.

[arebelspy]

I prefer market timing based on Avogadro's number.

I prefer Graham's number.

Still waiting to buy in.

[BBub]

Octobre 2015 is thus another point in time when markets are supposed to crash.

It's fun to read about predictions like this after the fact.  With October come, and gone, apparently this guy missed a prediction.  ;)

I predict that over the next 20 years...

1. Stocks will return between 8-10% nominally
2. The average investor will underperform the major indexes by at least half
3. The major indexes will experience a 33% drawdown at least twice
4. The major indexes will experience a 50% decline at least once
5. Nearly every year, several of the following topics will be discussed in major articles with some variation of the headline 'stocks are dead': inflation, deflation, hyperinflation, low oil prices, high oil prices, low interest rates, high interest rates, war, terrorism, the liberals, the conservatives, the moderates, the president, congress, the fed, socialism, the wealth gap, automation, the rise of the machines, the national debt, the national deficit, the trade deficit, baby boomers, gen x, gen y, millenials.

Let's revisit near the end of 2035... assuming we live through the apocalypse.

[GuitarStv]

I prefer market timing based on Avogadro's number.

I prefer guacamole made with fresh Avogadros.

[Kaspian]

Geeze, I must've blinked and missed the damn crash!  I also missed The Y2K Meltdown, The Rapture, and the Mayan Apocalypse.   :(

I did remember Halloween though.  ...Because there's candy.