The US stock market will crash again, eventually. It has always done this periodically and I see no reason to expect anything different. It's just a structural feature of publicly traded markets.
But WHEN will this next happen? Some forum members have been "calling the top" every few months since about 2012, and have missed out on 15% per year gains since then. I don't think we're ready to crash yet, but I fully expect it to happen again eventually and I want to hear your guesses on when, and how much.
All submissions should include a proposed month/year for the market peak, and a S&P500 percentage drop of >10% to occur after that. For example, I might propose that the market will peak in November 2017 and then suffer a maximum 15% drop (before exceeding that value again). This format removes all ambiguities about the duration of a potential downturn, because if a 15% drop sticks around for six months and then drops another 15%, that's just a 30% drop and the peak date remains unchanged.
Who is brave enough to venture a guess?
sol says the top will be June 2018, then a maximum drawdown of -15%.