Author Topic: calling the top  (Read 4141 times)

sol

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calling the top
« on: March 11, 2017, 05:52:06 PM »
The US stock market will crash again, eventually.  It has always done this periodically and I see no reason to expect anything different.  It's just a structural feature of publicly traded markets.

But WHEN will this next happen?  Some forum members have been "calling the top" every few months since about 2012, and have missed out on 15% per year gains since then.  I don't think we're ready to crash yet, but I fully expect it to happen again eventually and I want to hear your guesses on when, and how much.

All submissions should include a proposed month/year for the market peak, and a S&P500 percentage drop of >10% to occur after that.  For example, I might propose that the market will peak in November 2017 and then suffer a maximum 15% drop (before exceeding that value again).  This format removes all ambiguities about the duration of a potential downturn, because if a 15% drop sticks around for six months and then drops another 15%, that's just a 30% drop and the peak date remains unchanged.

Who is brave enough to venture a guess?

sol says the top will be June 2018, then a maximum drawdown of -15%. 


markbike528CBX

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Re: calling the top
« Reply #1 on: March 11, 2017, 07:32:06 PM »
August 2017, 20%

Joeko

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Re: calling the top
« Reply #2 on: March 11, 2017, 07:36:34 PM »
I'll guess Feb. 2019.  35% drop in S&P.  No clue if it will be caused by a geopolitical event, a Tweet by our Commander and Chief...or simply the market is over valued.

Al1961

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Re: calling the top
« Reply #3 on: March 11, 2017, 07:37:39 PM »
April 2017. 50%.

Why wait to be wrong?
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Frankies Girl

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Re: calling the top
« Reply #4 on: March 11, 2017, 07:52:41 PM »
May 17th as the top, with it eventually dropping over the next several months to a low of 27%.

I frequently have no idea what I'm talking about. Like now.

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PizzaSteve

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Re: calling the top
« Reply #5 on: March 11, 2017, 09:29:19 PM »
March, 2020.  25% drop. But it will recover half by Feb 2021.
« Last Edit: March 15, 2017, 08:41:43 AM by PizzaSteve »
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Paul der Krake

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Re: calling the top
« Reply #6 on: March 11, 2017, 11:30:27 PM »
Tuesday.

YttriumNitrate

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Re: calling the top
« Reply #7 on: March 12, 2017, 08:30:05 AM »
My "calling a top" signal is whether or not my relatives are discussing how much their stocks, houses, etc. have gone up in value at family gatherings. At the Christmas 2016 YttriumNitrate family gathering most financial conversations we about people being fearful or hopeful of what Trump would do to the economy, so I saying the top won't occur until at least 2018, and possibly later.

Edit: I'll guess March 2019, then down 20%
« Last Edit: March 12, 2017, 08:32:03 AM by YttriumNitrate »

Scortius

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Re: calling the top
« Reply #8 on: March 12, 2017, 09:19:09 AM »
April 2019. Drops 20%

GuitarStv

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Re: calling the top
« Reply #9 on: March 12, 2017, 09:26:10 AM »
I've been crunching the numbers and strongly expect to see a big collapse and drop at the end of 2007.  Probably in excess of 50% before the recovery.

Retire-Canada

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Re: calling the top
« Reply #10 on: March 12, 2017, 10:47:16 AM »


I have no idea when the top will be, how big the drop will be or how long the recovery will take. That being the case my investment plans don't require me to have that knowledge to be successful in the longterm. We typically are well prepared to fight the last war. Sadly the next war is rarely like the last war.
« Last Edit: March 12, 2017, 10:51:43 AM by Retire-Canada »

StreetCat

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Re: calling the top
« Reply #11 on: March 12, 2017, 10:54:05 AM »
I have no guess and I don't understand the point of this exercise.  Just for kicks?

There is a saying about the "Straw that broke the camel's back": https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Straw_that_broke_the_camel%27s_back

There is usually a straw/trigger/spark that initiates the event.  IMO, trying to find that trigger is futile.  It's like asking "Which exact straw broke the camel's back?"  It is futile because the problem really isn't with any particular piece of straw.  The problem is that the camel's back is structurally already overloaded and some minor/major trigger could cause it to break.

I think the only useful insight we can glean from the situation is that structural problem.  Currently the US stock market is richly valued compared to historical average, but still not as high as some bubbles we have seen.  Statistically that brings with it a low expected future returns.

dividendman

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Re: calling the top
« Reply #12 on: March 12, 2017, 12:01:26 PM »
I predict the S&P 500 will get to 3500, pretty much going straight up, until Jan 2020. It'll then pull back to 3100 by June of 2020. Then it will go on the greatest bull market ever to end the 2020s at 15000.

Radagast

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Re: calling the top
« Reply #13 on: March 12, 2017, 12:04:45 PM »
Peak in 2022. Low enough to set a new record for longest streak without real gains, from the 2000 peak, with dividends reinvested, as measured by VTSMX. Recovery to previous high in 2032.

April 2017. 50%.

Why wait to be wrong?
Nice.

...I don't understand the point of this exercise.  Just for kicks?
I assume.

Heckler

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Re: calling the top
« Reply #14 on: March 12, 2017, 12:12:04 PM »
My "top" is measured in $CAD, so also has the exchange rate fluctuation to call. 

So, Ill just go with tomorrow.  Monday morning, -12.6%.

BobTheBuilder

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Re: calling the top
« Reply #15 on: March 12, 2017, 12:22:32 PM »
Tough one.

I call May 5th, in case Le Pen wins France on the 7th. 30% downturn in this case.

If Le Pen does not win, I believe Europe will see 3 more years of moderate growth. The U.S. however seems to be further ahead in the cycle and will top in 2017 one way or another.

SwedishMoustache

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Re: calling the top
« Reply #16 on: March 12, 2017, 12:23:59 PM »
The sooner the better. I want good investment opportunities - so it can't crash soon enough by my way of thinking :).

Hopefully before/during summer!

tiberius

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Re: calling the top
« Reply #17 on: March 12, 2017, 02:13:28 PM »
I don't need to call the top because I intend to have 20% of my investments in US stock.
If it rises in value and becomes 22% - then I skim 2% off and rebalance, using that money to buy the asset class that has dropped the most.
That way I benefit from the bubble but don't suffer unduly.

powskier

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Re: calling the top
« Reply #18 on: March 12, 2017, 02:39:01 PM »
Impeachment by early July, so peak end of May then -15% and run up by September.

Scortius

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Re: calling the top
« Reply #19 on: March 12, 2017, 03:15:25 PM »
I have no guess and I don't understand the point of this exercise.  Just for kicks?

There is a saying about the "Straw that broke the camel's back": https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Straw_that_broke_the_camel%27s_back

There is usually a straw/trigger/spark that initiates the event.  IMO, trying to find that trigger is futile.  It's like asking "Which exact straw broke the camel's back?"  It is futile because the problem really isn't with any particular piece of straw.  The problem is that the camel's back is structurally already overloaded and some minor/major trigger could cause it to break.

I think the only useful insight we can glean from the situation is that structural problem.  Currently the US stock market is richly valued compared to historical average, but still not as high as some bubbles we have seen.  Statistically that brings with it a low expected future returns.

I would say the purpose is to show how stupid we all are, and that in this dense crowd of 'market timers' there will still be one or two who guess close to the truth and henceforth may consider themselves experts for no other justifiable reason.

Financial.Velociraptor

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Re: calling the top
« Reply #20 on: March 12, 2017, 04:18:03 PM »
This is cheating...but I think its too soon to be trying to guess the top.  Anyone remember real estate in late 2007?  Everyone was either in RE or wanted to get in.  You could get NINJA loans banks felt so confident about the market.  The 2000 market top was similar.  People literally saying its "a new economy" where the old rules don't apply.  When the bag boys at the local grocery store start chatting me up with hot stock tips and the elderly lady in line behind pipes in about her own hot stock, I'll know we are nearing a top in sentiment.  Top in the market comes soon thereafter.

We are not there yet.  Not in an environment where people are starting threads about calling the top.  That's not irrational exuberance.  Bull has legs to run...
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TheAnonOne

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Re: calling the top
« Reply #21 on: March 12, 2017, 10:18:46 PM »
Jan 2018: 25%

Livewell

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Re: calling the top
« Reply #22 on: March 12, 2017, 10:51:38 PM »
This is cheating...but I think its too soon to be trying to guess the top.  Anyone remember real estate in late 2007?  Everyone was either in RE or wanted to get in.  You could get NINJA loans banks felt so confident about the market.  The 2000 market top was similar.  People literally saying its "a new economy" where the old rules don't apply.  When the bag boys at the local grocery store start chatting me up with hot stock tips and the elderly lady in line behind pipes in about her own hot stock, I'll know we are nearing a top in sentiment.  Top in the market comes soon thereafter.

We are not there yet.  Not in an environment where people are starting threads about calling the top.  That's not irrational exuberance.  Bull has legs to run...

I agree, too much negative news.  There may be a near term top with a mild pullback but generally I think there is room to run.  In the intermediate term, say 12-18 months, I do think either the Fed raises rates too quickly and/or the tax overhaul gets delayed and we see a more severe pullback of 15-20%.  But we'll all be cool...

Paul der Krake

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Re: calling the top
« Reply #23 on: March 12, 2017, 10:57:27 PM »
I have heard taxi drivers comment on the growth prospects of tech companies.

tyort1

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Re: calling the top
« Reply #24 on: March 12, 2017, 11:08:31 PM »
This is cheating...but I think its too soon to be trying to guess the top.  Anyone remember real estate in late 2007?  Everyone was either in RE or wanted to get in.  You could get NINJA loans banks felt so confident about the market.  The 2000 market top was similar.  People literally saying its "a new economy" where the old rules don't apply.  When the bag boys at the local grocery store start chatting me up with hot stock tips and the elderly lady in line behind pipes in about her own hot stock, I'll know we are nearing a top in sentiment.  Top in the market comes soon thereafter.

We are not there yet.  Not in an environment where people are starting threads about calling the top.  That's not irrational exuberance.  Bull has legs to run...

Oh man, that is such a brilliant way to look at it - thanks!  And I'm also laughing my butt off at how accurate it is :D
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steveo

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Re: calling the top
« Reply #25 on: March 12, 2017, 11:19:25 PM »
I've been crunching the numbers and strongly expect to see a big collapse and drop at the end of 2007.  Probably in excess of 50% before the recovery.

We came to the same conclusion. I also got 10 March 2000 for a dot com bust. 19 Oct 1987 as Black Monday & 24 Oct 1929 as the Great Crash.

I also think that this will happen again but I'll let everyone know my tips sometime in the future.

Retire-Canada

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Re: calling the top
« Reply #26 on: March 13, 2017, 07:02:02 AM »
When the bag boys at the local grocery store start chatting me up with hot stock tips and the elderly lady in line behind pipes in about her own hot stock, I'll know we are nearing a top in sentiment.

Well my cat bought into the Snap IPO. Told me it was basically a sure thing.

Le Barbu

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Re: calling the top
« Reply #27 on: March 13, 2017, 07:16:09 AM »
The top was on march 3th and the drop will be at least 2% maybe more...
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Cycling Stache

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Re: calling the top
« Reply #28 on: March 13, 2017, 07:17:19 AM »
Ridiculous thread.  The top was April 2016, with the early coming of Red Dow(n).  Everyone has just been in denial since.

L.A.S.

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Re: calling the top
« Reply #29 on: March 13, 2017, 08:16:44 AM »
My "calling a top" signal is whether or not my relatives are discussing how much their stocks, houses, etc. have gone up in value at family gatherings. At the Christmas 2016 YttriumNitrate family gathering most financial conversations we about people being fearful or hopeful of what Trump would do to the economy, so I saying the top won't occur until at least 2018, and possibly later.

Edit: I'll guess March 2019, then down 20%

I laughed when I saw this because my wife and I joke that we don't have worry about selling until we get stock tips and investing advice from my SIL at a family get together.  Background: SIL is in a non-finance related field, and we know that she is not particularly sophisticated with investments.

We probably won't sell.  But, maybe starting at that point we'll use new investments to open up a position in bonds if the interest rates are decent, and wait a bit and to see where things go.

Dicey

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Re: calling the top
« Reply #30 on: March 13, 2017, 08:23:28 AM »
I've been crunching the numbers and strongly expect to see a big collapse and drop at the end of 2007.  Probably in excess of 50% before the recovery.

We came to the same conclusion. I also got 10 March 2000 for a dot com bust. 19 Oct 1987 as Black Monday & 24 Oct 1929 as the Great Crash.

I also think that this will happen again but I'll let everyone know my tips sometime in the future.
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VoteCthulu

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Re: calling the top
« Reply #31 on: March 13, 2017, 12:11:29 PM »
I'll blindly guess November 2019 will be the peak, with an eventual drop of 65%, since that would screw me over the most. Murphy's Law...
« Last Edit: March 13, 2017, 02:05:32 PM by VoteCthulu »

spud1987

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Re: calling the top
« Reply #32 on: March 13, 2017, 01:55:23 PM »
The Dow and S&P500 will peak in August 2017. They will then drop 20%. The reason? The markets are currently priced with the expectation of (1) a tax cut; (2) a $1T infrastructure bill; and (3) ACA repeal. I predict that two of these things will not happen (most likely being tax reform and infrastructure) and this will be evident by the summer. The markets will respond (read: freak out) accordingly. 

Eric

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Re: calling the top
« Reply #33 on: March 13, 2017, 02:04:35 PM »
I'd like to retire around June 2019, so I'll call the drop starting just before that.  Lets say April 2019 going down 27%.
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Pizzabrewer

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Re: calling the top
« Reply #34 on: March 13, 2017, 04:17:07 PM »
Well this guy says we're on the verge of melting up to Dow 40,000-50,000.

http://thecrux.com/dyncontent/reclusive-millionaire-get-out-of-cash/?cid=MKT328877&eid=MKT330267

Of course he also wants you to send him money for his investment wisdom....

8)

Kaspian

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Re: calling the top
« Reply #35 on: March 14, 2017, 01:40:24 PM »
My genie says beginning of June, 2017.  After the recent (strong) bull run, people will do the "sell in May and walk away" thing.  Newscasters will predict economic disaster, volcanoes, never recover, buy gold, locusts, sharks!  ...And then a new "top" will eventually come just come along the way it always does anyway.
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eddieryan

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Re: calling the top
« Reply #36 on: March 14, 2017, 09:40:18 PM »
I'll need to check in with old co-workers who discuss trading stocks daily. One of them bought $10,000 of Apple the week it peaked and still complains that his broker screwed him. Same guy claims that he makes tons of money by selling his entire 401 SP500 shares and buying them right back after "big drops". Another one from the same gang swore that we would see 1200 based on some voodoo tech chart article right when the SP dropped below 1900 Summer/Fall before last and started selling her stocks. My favorite source is probably the Apple guy. He epitomizes the public at large view of the market....when I talk with him I'll report back. When he zigs, it means a zag is coming.

ChpBstrd

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Re: calling the top
« Reply #37 on: March 15, 2017, 03:22:42 PM »
I think it would be a lot more interesting to speculate the immediate triggers of the correction. The timing of such events could vary. Here are my thoughts:

1) Legislation is introduced to return the US to the gold standard.
2) Russia invades the rest of Ukraine and/or the Baltic states.
3) China shoots down an American spy plane.
4) Tariffs are set up with top US trading partners.
5) Ethnic or religious riots triggered by mass deportation / incarceration of minorities.
6) Rising student loan delinquencies.
7) Rising mortgage delinquencies.
8) Rising auto loan delinquencies.
9) Rising inflation.
10) Abolition of the federal reserve bank.

Of these, I'd guess 2, 5, 6, and maybe 9 once people realize that the "basket of goods" measured for inflation is made in foreign countries targeted for tariffs.

Eric

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Re: calling the top
« Reply #38 on: March 15, 2017, 04:28:14 PM »
11.  US starts WWIII over a Twitter post
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Mikila

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Re: calling the top
« Reply #39 on: March 19, 2017, 03:30:53 PM »
I will call the top.  The market will peak in Oct. 2020, then plunge 30%. 

Who knows?  But this is a fun activity.

human

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Re: calling the top
« Reply #40 on: March 19, 2017, 03:38:24 PM »
THE SKY IS FALLING SELL IT AAAAAALLLL!

Then try to figure out when the bottom is. I say fall of 2018 a ten year anniversary kind of thing.

Car Jack

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Re: calling the top
« Reply #41 on: March 19, 2017, 05:30:15 PM »
March 19, 2042.  70% drop.  Coincidentally, that's also the day I die, according to my spreadsheet.  Yah, I plan everything.

kayvent

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Re: calling the top
« Reply #42 on: March 19, 2017, 05:36:14 PM »
March, 2020.  25% drop. But it will recover half by Feb 2021.

How will Trump ever win re-election with such a drop?

Le Barbu

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Re: calling the top
« Reply #43 on: March 19, 2017, 06:14:11 PM »
March, 2020.  25% drop. But it will recover half by Feb 2021.

How will Trump ever win re-election with such a drop?

If it doesnt recover, Trump will tell us it's fake news
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Full Beard

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Re: calling the top
« Reply #44 on: March 19, 2017, 06:37:18 PM »
March, 2020.  25% drop. But it will recover half by Feb 2021.

How will Trump ever win re-election with such a drop?

If it doesnt recover, Trump will tell us it's fake news

Or he'll likely blame it on Obama.

« Last Edit: March 19, 2017, 06:43:05 PM by Full Beard »
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kellyincville

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Re: calling the top
« Reply #45 on: March 19, 2017, 08:02:06 PM »
Impeachment by early July...

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PDXTabs

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Re: calling the top
« Reply #46 on: March 19, 2017, 10:59:24 PM »
The Dow and S&P500 will peak in August 2017. They will then drop 20%. The reason? The markets are currently priced with the expectation of (1) a tax cut; (2) a $1T infrastructure bill; and (3) ACA repeal. I predict that two of these things will not happen (most likely being tax reform and infrastructure) and this will be evident by the summer. The markets will respond (read: freak out) accordingly.

I mostly agree, except that I consider tax reform to be the most likely thing to pass. Also, if *just* tax reform passes then the market may weather the storm. Repealing the ACA might actually be bad for the economy as a whole, so I'm not sure that failing to repeal it will have any impact on the stock market. $1T in infrastructure investment would certainly be a good thing for the country as well as the market (as long as it is for good stuff, not a border wall).

marty998

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Re: calling the top
« Reply #47 on: March 20, 2017, 12:41:21 AM »

I mostly agree, except that I consider tax reform to be the most likely thing to pass. Also, if *just* tax reform passes then the market may weather the storm. Repealing the ACA might actually be bad for the economy as a whole, so I'm not sure that failing to repeal it will have any impact on the stock market. $1T in infrastructure investment would certainly be a good thing for the country as well as the market (as long as it is for good stuff, not a border wall).

I love how tax reform only ever = tax cuts.

2Birds1Stone

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Re: calling the top
« Reply #48 on: March 20, 2017, 01:41:09 AM »
The top will be the day I dump the remaining $10k that's sitting in Money Market funds from my IRA Rollover I completed back on Nov 18th.

After a great lesson on why time in the market > timing the market I am about to give up on holding out for a pullback and "go all in".

You're welcome. I'll post the day I do this.
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PDXTabs

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Re: calling the top
« Reply #49 on: March 20, 2017, 08:28:34 PM »
I love how tax reform only ever = tax cuts.

Well, I think that when Paul Ryan and Donald Trump say it, it means tax cuts and tax reform. I do not vote for people like Ryan and Trump, but I am aware how perverted our corporate tax code is to have a 35% nominal rate, an average Fortune 500 corporate rate of 19%, and some corporations paying nothing. Additionally, if I was a company choosing between the US, Ireland, and Singapore I would take a long hard look at Ireland and Singapore for their simpler and more favorable corporate taxes.

EDIT - typo
« Last Edit: March 20, 2017, 08:41:27 PM by PDXTabs »