Author Topic: Buckle up folks  (Read 13048 times)

ysette9

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Re: Buckle up folks
« Reply #50 on: February 18, 2016, 02:12:51 PM »
This is probably some naivety on my part (I mostly didn't pay attention during the great recession and didn't have that much invested at that point anyway), but I just don't get why people are paying attention so closely and so upset. Markets go up and down. If this is news to anyone then you clearly aren't ready to be investing. If a 10% temporary correction throws your finances out of whack then you have the wrong asset allocation. if a 10% correction makes you panic and lose sleep at night then you have the wrong asset allocation and need to spend some quality time educating yourself about the bigger picture.

We are down about $100K from the end of 2015 but my reaction so far has been "meh". I suppose that means that our AA of 95% stocks is an acceptable fit for our risk tolerance.
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tj

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Re: Buckle up folks
« Reply #51 on: February 18, 2016, 02:15:22 PM »
Just curious, has anyone fully cashed out?

Well bit slow to catch this, but I'll bite since no one else did.
I went to cash on 12-22-15 with SPX at about 2055. I think we'll see a run up to 2040-2060 range and at that point I'll consider going short the market again. I think pain(opportunity) is just starting.

I get MPT and all that, but the bull market is over, and 'paper losses' are real folks. Yes I might miss gains before I get back into some VTI etc.. but it feels good to remember you can choose NOT to be in the market.
This doesn't make sense to me. Why would you to to cash only to invest it again after a run-up?
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kurtnyc

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Re: Buckle up folks
« Reply #52 on: February 18, 2016, 02:23:29 PM »
ah, well there are two ways to do this. one if you want to be long only read "Ivy Portfolio" you find that statistically market volatility can be reduced and increase returns with very simply methods. the other reason is as I state, I went short and will again. you can do this easily with a no leverage inverse ETF like SH. with is just the inverse of SPY. As an instrument it carries no more risk than SPY.

I get this isn't for everyone, and not in the MMM 'mode' but the info might be helpful to someone, looks like this conversation is going on in this post right now.  http://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/why-i-am-reducing-mkt-exposurehave-been-since-2015/
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DarkandStormy

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Re: Buckle up folks
« Reply #53 on: October 12, 2017, 09:01:56 AM »
I don't understand how people aren't buying equities these days with every spare dollar they have. Do you really believe that "this is the big one" and that within a couple of years from now the market won't recover and surpass its previous highs? If you don't need the money to live on, why not put it to work?

Because adding "new" money to the broad stock market at todays valuation offers less than 1% annual return over the next decade along with a double-digit potential drawdown. This is essentially risking dollars to make pennies. There are better opportunities right now other than the stock market, and that is where my money is headed.

Whoops!
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Scortius

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Re: Buckle up folks
« Reply #54 on: October 12, 2017, 10:14:04 AM »
I don't understand how people aren't buying equities these days with every spare dollar they have. Do you really believe that "this is the big one" and that within a couple of years from now the market won't recover and surpass its previous highs? If you don't need the money to live on, why not put it to work?

Because adding "new" money to the broad stock market at todays valuation offers less than 1% annual return over the next decade along with a double-digit potential drawdown. This is essentially risking dollars to make pennies. There are better opportunities right now other than the stock market, and that is where my money is headed.

Whoops!

S&P 500:
Feb 12, 2016 - 1,865
Oct 12, 2017 - 2,554

That's a 37% gain over a year and a half.  Yup, that guy sure avoided the 40% dip...

I moved my 401k in late Aug from out of the market into safer bonds and for the year I am up a little.

Will move into stocks at a later date when I see market is ready.

No reason to see my 401k go down 40% and waste a year or two to just get back that 40%.

I have followed the market for years and know about trading and would not suggest this for most people.

I'm glad following the market for years is all it takes to be able to call broad long-term market movements.
« Last Edit: October 12, 2017, 10:18:33 AM by Scortius »

tyort1

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Re: Buckle up folks
« Reply #55 on: October 12, 2017, 10:22:12 AM »
I don't understand how people aren't buying equities these days with every spare dollar they have. Do you really believe that "this is the big one" and that within a couple of years from now the market won't recover and surpass its previous highs? If you don't need the money to live on, why not put it to work?

Because adding "new" money to the broad stock market at todays valuation offers less than 1% annual return over the next decade along with a double-digit potential drawdown. This is essentially risking dollars to make pennies. There are better opportunities right now other than the stock market, and that is where my money is headed.

Whoops!

Man, I <heart> you.  Thanks for digging up these old fear/panic threads.  I provides much needed perspective to some of our more skittish/gullible members here.  Plus, you know, comedy.
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DarkandStormy

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Re: Buckle up folks
« Reply #56 on: October 12, 2017, 11:01:15 AM »
ah, well there are two ways to do this. one if you want to be long only read "Ivy Portfolio" you find that statistically market volatility can be reduced and increase returns with very simply methods. the other reason is as I state, I went short and will again. you can do this easily with a no leverage inverse ETF like SH. with is just the inverse of SPY. As an instrument it carries no more risk than SPY.

I get this isn't for everyone, and not in the MMM 'mode' but the info might be helpful to someone, looks like this conversation is going on in this post right now.  http://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/why-i-am-reducing-mkt-exposurehave-been-since-2015/

2/18/16: SH is at 44.04.  It peaks early on 2/19/16 (to 44.10) and has not been at that level since.
Today: SH is at 31.06.

Unless you are making constant day trades (and making the calls the right way w/r/t to SPY v. SH) you've lost money and an incredible amount when compared to just keeping it invested.
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tyort1

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Re: Buckle up folks
« Reply #57 on: October 12, 2017, 11:29:54 AM »
ah, well there are two ways to do this. one if you want to be long only read "Ivy Portfolio" you find that statistically market volatility can be reduced and increase returns with very simply methods. the other reason is as I state, I went short and will again. you can do this easily with a no leverage inverse ETF like SH. with is just the inverse of SPY. As an instrument it carries no more risk than SPY.

I get this isn't for everyone, and not in the MMM 'mode' but the info might be helpful to someone, looks like this conversation is going on in this post right now.  http://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/why-i-am-reducing-mkt-exposurehave-been-since-2015/

2/18/16: SH is at 44.04.  It peaks early on 2/19/16 (to 44.10) and has not been at that level since.
Today: SH is at 31.06.

Unless you are making constant day trades (and making the calls the right way w/r/t to SPY v. SH) you've lost money and an incredible amount when compared to just keeping it invested.

Gee I wonder why no one ever comes back here and reports any huge losses on things like this?  I can only think of 2 reasons.  First, maybe they got out of that position when things went south and never bothered to tell anyone they abandoned that strategy or Second (and more likely), they actually did lose huge amounts of money with their "smart market analysis" and are ashamed to come back here and admit it. 
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risky4me

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Re: Buckle up folks
« Reply #58 on: October 12, 2017, 11:58:18 AM »
I have to admit that I moved an education fund that I am the trustee of to bonds recently. I chose to leave my own money to ride out any storm, but as a trustee your main responsibility is to keep the money safe, not try to be a hero and get the best possible returns. Another factor is the money will be utilized in the next few years so I don't have the luxury of riding out a storm like I do with my own money.
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DarkandStormy

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Re: Buckle up folks
« Reply #59 on: October 12, 2017, 11:58:45 AM »
^So many future tellers fail to come back with their tail between their legs.  Too much pride to admit they were wrong.
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talltexan

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Re: Buckle up folks
« Reply #60 on: October 13, 2017, 10:03:11 AM »
wow, what a story. I remember how exciting that early 2016 period was, when the SP500 fell back below 1,900. Now, it feels like it may never stock going up!

Mr. Green

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Re: Buckle up folks
« Reply #61 on: October 13, 2017, 11:46:33 AM »
The OP said he invested half his cash the day before. I bet he's glad he did that now!
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JAYSLOL

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Re: Buckle up folks
« Reply #62 on: October 13, 2017, 11:13:41 PM »
When this thread got revived I didn't notice it was old, got a couple posts in and was like "what the hell!?", checks stock prices, checks OP posting date - "ah, that explains it".  Thanks for reviving another epic market timing thread, always enjoy these type discussions

Exflyboy

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Re: Buckle up folks
« Reply #63 on: October 14, 2017, 07:13:42 PM »
Wow I don't even remember Feb 2016... Must have been REALLY significant.. Not.