Author Topic: Bottom is in  (Read 23660 times)

Brother Esau

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #100 on: December 20, 2019, 12:03:30 PM »
Bump. Just in case anyone didn't notice

aboatguy

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #101 on: February 21, 2020, 03:31:56 PM »
is the bottom in?

Brother Esau

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #102 on: February 21, 2020, 04:16:04 PM »
is the bottom in?

Since I correctly predicted the Top in the "Top is In" thread (2 days ago, yesterday?....whatever). I'll let you know when to buy back in. Wait for it!

aboatguy

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #103 on: March 02, 2020, 07:54:37 PM »
Is the bottom in or is it a big bacon bounce





aboatguy

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #104 on: March 04, 2020, 07:37:37 PM »
Credit Suisse strategists say the bottom has not yet begun to form..... 
Recession is in, bottom is not in.
However, Thorstache has posted in the Top is In thread so the bottom is probably close...
« Last Edit: March 04, 2020, 07:39:18 PM by aboatguy »

Missy B

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #105 on: March 04, 2020, 10:59:08 PM »
My feeling is we've got another 10% to drop. It may not be for a while - it wouldn't surprise me if things stabilized for a while and then sank later in the year as the real impact of coronavirus becomes quantifiable. The other question for me is: What sectors/businesses have weakness that isn't so visible that may be disrupted disproportionately? Some areas are obviously vulnerable, but some aren't until they start to fail.

Lots more choppy trading days ahead... and if there's a cluster of coronavirus near New York, watch the fur fly.                                               

aboatguy

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #106 on: March 09, 2020, 06:18:47 PM »
Is the bottom in or will everything be on sale for my next paycheck (in about two weeks) ?

dragoncar

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #107 on: March 09, 2020, 06:48:33 PM »
Credit Suisse strategists say the bottom has not yet begun to form..... 
Recession is in, bottom is not in.
However, Thorstache has posted in the Top is In thread so the bottom is probably close...

I think he jumped the gun on bottom not in.  Bottom not in will probably be in a month or two

dividendman

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #108 on: March 09, 2020, 07:55:14 PM »
bottom is in, VIX down, confidence up

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #109 on: March 09, 2020, 08:01:13 PM »
Fears of COVID-19 spread sent markets -8% lower yesterday.  Lots of panic, and I sold with all the rest of them... because they didn't panic enough.  It's my prediction the U.S. will hit 10,000 cases of COVID-19, and trigger another panic.

Montecarlo

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #110 on: March 09, 2020, 08:15:45 PM »
I wouldnít be surprised to see the market take another 50% haircut, but if it does I will be buying the whole way down.  Iím young enough that a bear market is good for me.

dragoncar

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #111 on: March 10, 2020, 03:19:19 AM »
Fears of COVID-19 spread sent markets -8% lower yesterday.  Lots of panic, and I sold with all the rest of them... because they didn't panic enough.  It's my prediction the U.S. will hit 10,000 cases of COVID-19, and trigger another panic.

Why is 10k a magic number?

bigblock440

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #112 on: March 10, 2020, 05:38:51 AM »
Fears of COVID-19 spread sent markets -8% lower yesterday.  Lots of panic, and I sold with all the rest of them... because they didn't panic enough.  It's my prediction the U.S. will hit 10,000 cases of COVID-19, and trigger another panic.

Why is 10k a magic number?

Because it's a nice round number that they think the news is going to make a big deal about, creating more panic.  Not really any significance other than the general populations reaction to it.

habaneroNorway

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #113 on: March 10, 2020, 06:06:58 AM »
This is the distribution of daily returns of the S&P 500 during the great selloff from Jun 2008 until the market bottomed out early in march 2009. All "calm" days in which the market moved by less than +/- 2% are taken out.






bacchi

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #114 on: March 12, 2020, 02:53:28 PM »
Ok, I'm calling it. This is the bottom @2480 S&P.

All in; it's nothing but top from here on out.

magnet18

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #115 on: March 16, 2020, 02:51:25 PM »
Ok, I'm calling it. This is the bottom @2480 S&P.

All in; it's nothing but top from here on out.

2386 S&P laughs at you

But I saw a motley fool add saying they're issuing a rare "all in" buy recommendation, and that in 5 years I'll wish I'd bought these stocks

So the bottoms gotta be in now

dragoncar

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #116 on: March 16, 2020, 02:58:09 PM »
Ok, I'm calling it. This is the bottom @2480 S&P.

All in; it's nothing but top from here on out.

2386 S&P laughs at you

But I saw a motley fool add saying they're issuing a rare "all in" buy recommendation, and that in 5 years I'll wish I'd bought these stocks

So the bottoms gotta be in now

While I think this is a decent buy level, my gut tells me the bottom wonít be in until They issue a rare ďgive upĒ recommendation

Is the time magazine cover in yet?

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #117 on: March 16, 2020, 03:09:16 PM »
Ok, I'm calling it. This is the bottom @2480 S&P.

All in; it's nothing but top from here on out.

2386 S&P laughs at you

But I saw a motley fool add saying they're issuing a rare "all in" buy recommendation, and that in 5 years I'll wish I'd bought these stocks

So the bottoms gotta be in now

While I think this is a decent buy level, my gut tells me the bottom wonít be in until They issue a rare ďgive upĒ recommendation

Is the time magazine cover in yet?

We need a business week cover declaring the end of equities. Absent that, I think this rollercoaster is just getting started. 

Brother Esau

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #118 on: March 17, 2020, 09:04:21 AM »
Does -30% or so look like a bottom?

vand

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #119 on: March 17, 2020, 09:34:34 AM »
We may have found buyers at Dow @20k.


dandarc

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #120 on: March 17, 2020, 09:36:30 AM »
We may have found buyers at Dow @20k.
Be interesting to see how long it takes them to run out of money.

aperture

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #121 on: March 17, 2020, 09:57:51 AM »
Bottom can't be here yet.  We have barely had time for the doomsayers to declare this as a unique 100-year moment in history possibly worse then the great depression and the great recession combined.  We'll only know we have hit bottom when someone coins a phrase that captures the this particular economic event and it is picked up by every talking head. 

I'm thinking it should start with "Great"

dragoncar

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #122 on: March 24, 2020, 11:13:11 AM »
Bottom may be in.  Iím getting FOMO because I havenít rebalanced or leveraged in yet!  Iím just sitting here doing nothing like a chump!

bthewalls

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #123 on: March 24, 2020, 01:26:48 PM »
bottom is NOT NOT NOT  in!

Bottom will be in when USA is saturated with covid..

I bet my mother in law that I am right! Who taking bets?

dragoncar

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #124 on: March 24, 2020, 01:52:40 PM »
bottom is NOT NOT NOT  in!

Bottom will be in when USA is saturated with covid..

I bet my mother in law that I am right! Who taking bets?

Define saturated with covid and I'll take the bet

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #125 on: March 24, 2020, 02:07:04 PM »
We may have found buyers at Dow @20k.
Fools and their money are soon parted.

xander

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #126 on: March 24, 2020, 02:12:01 PM »
The night is darkest just before the dawn.

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #127 on: March 24, 2020, 02:13:15 PM »
Bottom may be in.  Iím getting FOMO because I havenít rebalanced or leveraged in yet!  Iím just sitting here doing nothing like a chump!

And youíll feel like a real chump when/if the market takes a second dive.

The Fed just initiated QE to infinity and beyond! and Congress looks like itís going to dump a couple trillion into the economy. I should hope that gooses the market a bit. The question is does it last?


Buffaloski Boris

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #128 on: March 24, 2020, 02:14:16 PM »
The night is darkest just before the dawn.

The light at the end of the tunnel might well be a freight train.

Cabaka

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #129 on: March 24, 2020, 02:18:58 PM »
Bottom may be in.  Iím getting FOMO because I havenít rebalanced or leveraged in yet!  Iím just sitting here doing nothing like a chump!

bottom may be in is the usa and world can avoid a recession/depression.

only took 6 trillion in federal bank money and 2 trillion from taxpayers, basically 8 trillion in spending in a 15 trillion dollar economy to keep it afloat; yes this will work out well.

Painters Brush

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #130 on: March 24, 2020, 02:35:21 PM »
Bottom will be in when USA is saturated with covid..

My opinion only folks...

I saw a clip of a hospital corridor in Spain with people laying on the floor. The hospital was overwhelmed.

Looking at a chart of nations infection trajectories and also looking at USA news, I'm convinced that USA is in for a shock - two of them.

Shock One - When current high infection zones become overwhelmed something like Spain. We should be 2-3 weeks away. Measures taken might change that curve. Regardless, it will surprise people. The news won't be good.

Shock two: When Red states realize that the infection multiplies in numbers like we're seeing in NY.

Shock two, I believe, is when Washington shuts down America big time and I find it hard to believe that this will not be a major stock market drop.

londonbanker

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #131 on: March 24, 2020, 03:16:51 PM »
bottom is NOT NOT NOT  in!

Bottom will be in when USA is saturated with covid..

I bet my mother in law that I am right! Who taking bets?

Is your MIL any hot??

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #132 on: March 24, 2020, 03:49:26 PM »
bottom is NOT NOT NOT  in!

Bottom will be in when USA is saturated with covid..

I bet my mother in law that I am right! Who taking bets?

Is your MIL any hot??
She's very hot - I think the medical term is a fever.

(Not my MIL, but couldn't resist the joke)

bthewalls

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #133 on: March 24, 2020, 05:01:20 PM »
Bottom will be in when USA is saturated with covid..

My opinion only folks...

I saw a clip of a hospital corridor in Spain with people laying on the floor. The hospital was overwhelmed.

Looking at a chart of nations infection trajectories and also looking at USA news, I'm convinced that USA is in for a shock - two of them.

Shock One - When current high infection zones become overwhelmed something like Spain. We should be 2-3 weeks away. Measures taken might change that curve. Regardless, it will surprise people. The news won't be good.

Shock two: When Red states realize that the infection multiplies in numbers like we're seeing in NY.

Shock two, I believe, is when Washington shuts down America big time and I find it hard to believe that this will not be a major stock market drop.

Absolutely agree...USA ainít seen anything yet

blue_green_sparks

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #134 on: March 24, 2020, 05:11:19 PM »
I saw this in a different forum. LOL

"Dow rises on hope of more free taxpayer money for big business"

MaaS

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #135 on: March 24, 2020, 05:17:05 PM »
Bottom will be in when USA is saturated with covid..

My opinion only folks...

I saw a clip of a hospital corridor in Spain with people laying on the floor. The hospital was overwhelmed.

Looking at a chart of nations infection trajectories and also looking at USA news, I'm convinced that USA is in for a shock - two of them.

Shock One - When current high infection zones become overwhelmed something like Spain. We should be 2-3 weeks away. Measures taken might change that curve. Regardless, it will surprise people. The news won't be good.

Shock two: When Red states realize that the infection multiplies in numbers like we're seeing in NY.

Shock two, I believe, is when Washington shuts down America big time and I find it hard to believe that this will not be a major stock market drop.

Agree, but I think shock 1A might be this week's unemployment report. Everyone expects it to be bad but it's all a complete guess. I've been astonished by the number of seemingly unrelated companies and industries laying off staff.

Painters Brush

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #136 on: March 24, 2020, 05:47:32 PM »
Agree, but I think shock 1A might be this week's unemployment report. Everyone expects it to be bad but it's all a complete guess. I've been astonished by the number of seemingly unrelated companies and industries laying off staff.

Yes... we haven't even gotten to the many bankruptcies that must ensue, broad dividend cuts, GDP numbers et cetera, et cetera, et cetera.

But you're right, its all a compete guess.

Jack0Life

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #137 on: March 25, 2020, 02:16:24 PM »
I'm thinking the uptick in the market was good while it lasted.
Market was up all day and then the last 20 mins, it plunged.
Even with the agreement for the Stimulus bill didn't boost it that much.
I'm guessing we'll see a big dip tomorrow.


Stachless

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #138 on: March 25, 2020, 08:16:17 PM »
I'm thinking the uptick in the market was good while it lasted.
Market was up all day and then the last 20 mins, it plunged.
Even with the agreement for the Stimulus bill didn't boost it that much.
I'm guessing we'll see a big dip tomorrow.

I could be wrong, but I think the market tanked the last 20 minutes on word of Bernie + a few Republicans were in a Mexican standoff and threatening to not get the bill done?

It will almost certainly get done tomorrow - hopefully the market gets to rally on the same news twice.  Now go wash your hands!

Jack0Life

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #139 on: March 25, 2020, 10:18:06 PM »
I'm thinking the uptick in the market was good while it lasted.
Market was up all day and then the last 20 mins, it plunged.
Even with the agreement for the Stimulus bill didn't boost it that much.
I'm guessing we'll see a big dip tomorrow.

I could be wrong, but I think the market tanked the last 20 minutes on word of Bernie + a few Republicans were in a Mexican standoff and threatening to not get the bill done?

It will almost certainly get done tomorrow - hopefully the market gets to rally on the same news twice.  Now go wash your hands!

Markets is stumbling just a little bit during after hours.
Interesting to see tomorrow.

2Birds1Stone

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #140 on: March 26, 2020, 03:15:05 AM »
with millions unemployed this week, and possibly tens of millions in a month or two.......RIP to the markets.

Jack0Life

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #141 on: March 26, 2020, 09:10:18 AM »
I'm a bit shock that the market is on the rise today.
With the market plunging the last 20 mins yesterday I thought momentum was gone.
The unemployment didn't deter the market so far today.

MaaS

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #142 on: March 26, 2020, 09:58:17 AM »
I'm a bit shock that the market is on the rise today.
With the market plunging the last 20 mins yesterday I thought momentum was gone.
The unemployment didn't deter the market so far today.

A very surprising turn of events. This is why I only invest long-term. Trying to day trade this stuff would be enough to make a person go mad.

With absolutely no new information, the market will probably randomly decide to sell off 12% one day next week. Then next week's unemployment report will be worse, and we'll rally it all back. Lol.

VaCPA

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #143 on: March 26, 2020, 10:41:40 AM »
I don't think volatility is quite done yet. Will it drop back to the low it hit this week? I have absolutely no idea. I think optimism is high right now, between the stimulus and Trump's comments about going back to normal in 3 weeks. Of course that is ridiculous and if they try it it'll backfire on him.

bthewalls

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #144 on: March 26, 2020, 05:15:27 PM »
I don't think volatility is quite done yet. Will it drop back to the low it hit this week? I have absolutely no idea. I think optimism is high right now, between the stimulus and Trump's comments about going back to normal in 3 weeks. Of course that is ridiculous and if they try it it'll backfire on him.

Canít see optimism lasting long after covid rips thru USA ....could easily kill few hundred thought...I read max estimates up to 480000

dividendman

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #145 on: March 26, 2020, 05:18:21 PM »
I don't think volatility is quite done yet. Will it drop back to the low it hit this week? I have absolutely no idea. I think optimism is high right now, between the stimulus and Trump's comments about going back to normal in 3 weeks. Of course that is ridiculous and if they try it it'll backfire on him.

Canít see optimism lasting long after covid rips thru USA ....could easily kill few hundred thought...I read max estimates up to 480000

If enough people think that then the bottom is in.

Stachless

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #146 on: March 26, 2020, 05:32:04 PM »
I don't think volatility is quite done yet. Will it drop back to the low it hit this week? I have absolutely no idea. I think optimism is high right now, between the stimulus and Trump's comments about going back to normal in 3 weeks. Of course that is ridiculous and if they try it it'll backfire on him.

Can’t see optimism lasting long after covid rips thru USA ....could easily kill few hundred thought...I read max estimates up to 480000

From today:
"The U.S. now has more confirmed coronavirus cases than China, making it the country with the largest outbreak in the world."

Also from today:
"It might not feel like it, but a new bull market in stocks is under way—at least by one definition. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up more than 23% from recent intraday lows. Will the Covid-19 bull market date to March 26, 2020?"

The market is forward-looking...what if the 'worst case' was already priced in? 

I certainly don't know the answer to this...but what I am willing to wager on is that humanity will not only survive, but continue to thrive.
« Last Edit: March 26, 2020, 05:34:54 PM by Stachless »

Montecarlo

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #147 on: March 27, 2020, 07:12:29 AM »
the whole efficient market hypothesis should probably be firmly rejected based off of ZOOM vs ZM

MaaS

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #148 on: March 27, 2020, 08:50:39 AM »
the whole efficient market hypothesis should probably be firmly rejected based off of ZOOM vs ZM

The crazy thing is this isn't the first time this has happened. When Zoom Video Communications IPO'ed, Zoom Technologies (the wrong Zoom) exploded.


wienerdog

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #149 on: March 27, 2020, 09:10:26 AM »
I don't think volatility is quite done yet. Will it drop back to the low it hit this week? I have absolutely no idea. I think optimism is high right now, between the stimulus and Trump's comments about going back to normal in 3 weeks. Of course that is ridiculous and if they try it it'll backfire on him.

Canít see optimism lasting long after covid rips thru USA ....could easily kill few hundred thought...I read max estimates up to 480000

From today:
"The U.S. now has more confirmed coronavirus cases than China, making it the country with the largest outbreak in the world."

Also from today:
"It might not feel like it, but a new bull market in stocks is under wayóat least by one definition. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up more than 23% from recent intraday lows. Will the Covid-19 bull market date to March 26, 2020?"

The market is forward-looking...what if the 'worst case' was already priced in? 

I certainly don't know the answer to this...but what I am willing to wager on is that humanity will not only survive, but continue to thrive.

This pretty much happens every time.  Ask around I bet you find many people already had the virus.  I know the US passed 80,000 but I bet the real number is closer to a million or 10 times what is reported.  The more people I talk to I believe it to be true.  I was sick in January for 2 days.  Fever, chills, cough and out of breath with very little effort.  I happen to have a yearly doctors appointment the 3rd day but I had broke the fever and was back to normal.  Not 100% but I felt much better where I could do things. and was planning to go to work after my appointment.  Doctor tested me for strep at office and took blood work after that strep test proved to be negative.  I was told to stay home and away from people as the blood was taken on Friday and results wouldn't be back until Monday.  The mono test with the blood work came back negative also.  He didn't test for influenza but did asked if I get a shot.

My mom was diagnosed with pneumonia in early February after being tested for influenza.  Her boyfriend had coughing and same symptoms of Corona shortly before (both in their 70s).  I talked to guys in Detroit that said something spread like a wildfire in their office in January.  Same thing many of them didn't go to the doctor but the one that did was told they had an upper respiratory infection.

A co-worker at work same thing.  Traveled to Spain in late January after I was sick.  Fever, chills cough and "gurgling" while breathing which was labored.  Over the shelf medicine and it is was gone in a few days.  I have never used cough medicine in my life.  In January was the first time I have bought it.  Not saying it wasn't bad as I haven't had an ass kicking like that in some years.  Probably the last time was when I had Strep over 10 years ago and broke down and went to the doctor when I couldn't kick it in a couple days.

Long story short don't always believe the media as they want to create something that isn't true.  Many times they always find all these models are wrong but the media will run with it because big news is their business.  More and more times they are finding this to be true.  For more on the subject as this isn't anything new:

https://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/article?id=10.1371/journal.pmed.0020124

Don't forget heart disease kills over 2000 people a day in the US.  If the media really cared they would be working on changing the American diet.  Keep your immune system healthy folks as the body is an amazing thing and knows what to do at exactly the right time.  I am not saying go around licking door knobs and hand rails as you still have to be smart but I believe this is way overblown much as the study has found happens.