Post by: acroy on February 09, 2018, 06:35:47 AM
I put $6500 into VTI yesterday. It was down to around 6350 at day's close.
We may have a ways down to go yet, but I don't see an immediate systemic risk. Unless interest rates blow up (or N Korea blows up the Olympics) I think the market is over-sold.
More will go into VTI as it becomes available.
Post by: FIRE47 on February 09, 2018, 06:41:44 AM
I agree with the comment on the fundamentals - this is just a reaction to the markets being overheated. That being said the movement seems pretty violent and we havn't really seen any signs that we've turned the corner. Until these intraday swings settle down and we have 2 up days in a row the traditional wisdom says stay away from a market timing perspectiveotherwise it's just a pure gamble. If I was timing the market at this point I'd wait to see these signs or I would probably gamble and pull the trigger if there is another big overreaction like another -4% in one day.
That being said I havn't stopped contributing and I don't bother with timing. Problem is my next lump sum isn't for 2 months.
Post by: Mr. Green on February 09, 2018, 06:48:25 AM
Post by: Capt j-rod on February 09, 2018, 06:53:57 AM
Post by: dandarc on February 09, 2018, 07:06:21 AM
Post by: Mississippi Mudstache on February 09, 2018, 07:21:43 AM
Post by: ingrownstudentloans on February 09, 2018, 07:58:17 AM
Post by: LAGuy on February 09, 2018, 09:35:50 AM
Post by: Financial.Velociraptor on February 09, 2018, 09:36:11 AM
Post by: acroy on February 09, 2018, 09:59:16 AM
Bonus/retroactive pay raise happens early April for me so to an extent, I have fingers crossed the market will cooperate. As others mentioned, if the dip continues, the bigger it gets the more we'll trim expenses to be able to buy low.
Only the great Thorstach can call tops and bottoms! This is heresy!Spread the fun!
Post by: alanB on February 09, 2018, 10:16:40 AM
Post by: FIRE47 on February 09, 2018, 10:30:12 AM
Post by: Tabaxus on February 09, 2018, 10:35:01 AM
Looks like we're going to have another couple percentage point drop today. So, bottom not in! Ah well. Need to decide if I want to clip something out of my $20k "emergency"/cash smoothing fund (I had been thinking about reducing it from $25k to $20k for awhile and decided to pull the trigger on that yesterday, but putting $10k more in today would be pure market timing, I would feel the need to replenish it over the next couple of months).
I don't think I will. Don't want to start bad habits.
In any event, have a $7k 401(k) contribution that will happen on the 15th, so if we're still down then, I'll get some of that.
Playing a sad song for the $134k I've put into the market since November, though ($33k in November when I finally got around to offloading cash that had been accumulating, $60k at the end of December from year-end bonus, $11k into 2018 Roth IRA, $11k in January into 401(k), 6900 into HSA, and then this $12k yesterday). Ah, well. The only mistake in there--and it was a big mistake, obviously--was letting my cash accumulate for a few months in 2017.
Post by: boarder42 on February 09, 2018, 10:40:04 AM
Post by: 2Birds1Stone on February 09, 2018, 10:42:30 AM
i dont just have cash sitting around waiting
Leverage ;)!
Post by: sol on February 09, 2018, 10:53:57 AM
These people clearly have no idea what they're taking about. Trying to fit a narrative to this sort of volatility is hilarious. Is it deficit spending, or inflation fears, or white house turmoil, or all of the above on a rotating 15 minutes schedule? They should just print "computer algorithms amplify market swings and nobody understands why" every day for the next month.
Wait, I meant to say "bottom is in."
Post by: dougules on February 09, 2018, 11:02:13 AM
Only the great Thorstach can call tops and bottoms! This is heresy!
We've not established thorstach's ability to call bottoms, just tops.
Post by: boarder42 on February 09, 2018, 11:04:04 AM
I've been entertaining myself by reading the popular press market news today. First it was "Dow snaps losing streak with huge gain at open"and then 30 minutes later it was "market gives up gains in early trading" then "market up, positive note to end a down week" and now we're back to "catastrophic market plunge caps worst week since 2008".
These people clearly have no idea what they're taking about. Trying to fit a narrative to this sort of volatility is hilarious. Is it deficit spending, or inflation fears, or white house turmoil, or all of the above on a rotating 15 minutes schedule? They should just print "computer algorithms amplify market swings and nobody understands why" every day for the next month.
Wait, I meant to say "bottom is in."
yeah i have a screen shot from a couple days ago that says dow off 200 - then the dow is up 100 in the ticker and below it - it says dow on track to blow past 200 in losses - just hilarious - by the time they publish the article its changed so much. they should just have an algorithm that plugs in key words to change the headlines as the market moves
market moves up over 20pts in 10 mins draw words from bucket X
Post by: des999 on February 09, 2018, 11:10:43 AM
i dont just have cash sitting around waiting
Post by: alanB on February 09, 2018, 11:19:52 AM
i dont just have cash sitting around waitingMe neither, dark days for the cash poor. My previous post was just some dry humor, since I am so illiquid ;)
Post by: Phenix on February 09, 2018, 11:40:12 AM
Post by: Bird In Hand on February 09, 2018, 11:41:09 AM
Now I'm stupidly sitting on the fence wondering whether to buy $5,500 at today's closing price for my 2018 Roth IRA. :D
Post by: Travis on February 09, 2018, 11:55:46 AM
I've been entertaining myself by reading the popular press market news today. First it was "Dow snaps losing streak with huge gain at open"and then 30 minutes later it was "market gives up gains in early trading" then "market up, positive note to end a down week" and now we're back to "catastrophic market plunge caps worst week since 2008".
These people clearly have no idea what they're taking about. Trying to fit a narrative to this sort of volatility is hilarious. Is it deficit spending, or inflation fears, or white house turmoil, or all of the above on a rotating 15 minutes schedule? They should just print "computer algorithms amplify market swings and nobody understands why" every day for the next month.
Wait, I meant to say "bottom is in."
yeah i have a screen shot from a couple days ago that says dow off 200 - then the dow is up 100 in the ticker and below it - it says dow on track to blow past 200 in losses - just hilarious - by the time they publish the article its changed so much. they should just have an algorithm that plugs in key words to change the headlines as the market moves
market moves up over 20pts in 10 mins draw words from bucket X
I saw a graph on some news program yesterday that was scaled to make it look like the market simply cratered yesterday. My own net worth tracker on Personal Capital is rigged in the same fashion (their choice, not mine).
There's a joke out there that went on a rant about how pundits have no clue what they're talking about spitting out jargon they themselves don't understand. This catastrophic market event could be summed up as "Some stocks were bought, some stocks were sold. Long term investors didn't even notice. Brokers earned $1 billion in fees, but nobody notices or talks about this figure despite it being the most important number in all of personal finance."
Post by: I'm a red panda on February 09, 2018, 12:54:29 PM
Making a decision on when the low is the lowest was so stressful to think about we decided to keep just putting in every month like we always do.
Post by: boarder42 on February 09, 2018, 01:25:52 PM
We thought about maxing our IRAs for the year yesterday. But how do we know if the bottom is the bottom?
Making a decision on when the low is the lowest was so stressful to think about we decided to keep just putting in every month like we always do.
what are you doing with that other money sitting around them. if you can max today you have soldiers sidelined.
Post by: I'm a red panda on February 09, 2018, 01:31:49 PM
We thought about maxing our IRAs for the year yesterday. But how do we know if the bottom is the bottom?
Making a decision on when the low is the lowest was so stressful to think about we decided to keep just putting in every month like we always do.
what are you doing with that other money sitting around them. if you can max today you have soldiers sidelined.
Our asset allocation includes 10% cash. It's there, because we say it should be.
Post by: FI4good on February 09, 2018, 01:37:50 PM
Badass me .
Post by: boarder42 on February 09, 2018, 02:02:24 PM
We thought about maxing our IRAs for the year yesterday. But how do we know if the bottom is the bottom?
Making a decision on when the low is the lowest was so stressful to think about we decided to keep just putting in every month like we always do.
what are you doing with that other money sitting around them. if you can max today you have soldiers sidelined.
Our asset allocation includes 10% cash. It's there, because we say it should be.
so then you shouldnt be dumping it in if thats what you are supposed to have .
Post by: FIRE47 on February 09, 2018, 02:14:55 PM
We thought about maxing our IRAs for the year yesterday. But how do we know if the bottom is the bottom?
Making a decision on when the low is the lowest was so stressful to think about we decided to keep just putting in every month like we always do.
what are you doing with that other money sitting around them. if you can max today you have soldiers sidelined.
Our asset allocation includes 10% cash. It's there, because we say it should be.
so then you shouldnt be dumping it in if thats what you are supposed to have .
My thoughts exactly.
If a 10% fall (although it did come on hard and fast) is causing people to adjust their long term plans, then perhaps the plan is not right for them.
I also have around 5% of my liquid NW "stache" in cash (not counting chequing account which is only around 2% anyways) but a lot more would have to happen before I decide to dump this into the markets.
Remember once you use that up then what? You will feel even more frantic as you have nothing left to do. The markets could easily drop another 10% from here.
Post by: JAYSLOL on February 09, 2018, 02:27:05 PM
Post by: DS on February 09, 2018, 02:32:40 PM
Post by: Apocalyptica602 on February 09, 2018, 02:38:13 PM
I went on a diet so am able to pump my extra £5 a week savings into the market , i might even go mad and skip filling up & using the car for an extra £20 this month.
Badass me .
I'm surprised people who are quick to yell 'market timer!' at everyone don't jump on people who say I'm doing 'X' to throw more money at the market because it's dipping!
I'm sure you're probably being sarcastic, and I guess whatever gets you saving more is good, but just an observation. Automated DCA all the way, no dry powder and not dipping into my emergency fund to buy more stock.
Post by: Yankuba on February 09, 2018, 02:47:49 PM
Post by: dougules on February 09, 2018, 03:03:36 PM
I went on a diet so am able to pump my extra £5 a week savings into the market , i might even go mad and skip filling up & using the car for an extra £20 this month.
Badass me .
I'm surprised people who are quick to yell 'market timer!' at everyone don't jump on people who say I'm doing 'X' to throw more money at the market because it's dipping!
I'm sure you're probably being sarcastic, and I guess whatever gets you saving more is good, but just an observation. Automated DCA all the way, no dry powder and not dipping into my emergency fund to buy more stock.
Actually, that is bad market timing too. If you can do that when the market falls, why were you not doing it when the market was rising too?
Post by: sol on February 09, 2018, 03:04:32 PM
I've been entertaining myself by reading the popular press market news today. First it was "Dow snaps losing streak with huge gain at open"and then 30 minutes later it was "market gives up gains in early trading" then "market up, positive note to end a down week" and now we're back to "catastrophic market plunge caps worst week since 2008".
Then miraculously finishes the day with triumphant headlines about the late day surge suggesting a recovery already in progress. Whatever, guys.
Post by: 2Birds1Stone on February 09, 2018, 03:07:46 PM
I've been entertaining myself by reading the popular press market news today. First it was "Dow snaps losing streak with huge gain at open"and then 30 minutes later it was "market gives up gains in early trading" then "market up, positive note to end a down week" and now we're back to "catastrophic market plunge caps worst week since 2008".
Then miraculously finishes the day with triumphant headlines about the late day surge suggesting a recovery already in progress. Whatever, guys.
Another -10% next week!
Post by: I'm a red panda on February 09, 2018, 03:16:43 PM
We thought about maxing our IRAs for the year yesterday. But how do we know if the bottom is the bottom?
Making a decision on when the low is the lowest was so stressful to think about we decided to keep just putting in every month like we always do.
what are you doing with that other money sitting around them. if you can max today you have soldiers sidelined.
Our asset allocation includes 10% cash. It's there, because we say it should be.
so then you shouldnt be dumping it in if thats what you are supposed to have .
My thoughts exactly.
If a 10% fall (although it did come on hard and fast) is causing people to adjust their long term plans, then perhaps the plan is not right for them.
I also have around 5% of my liquid NW "stache" in cash (not counting chequing account which is only around 2% anyways) but a lot more would have to happen before I decide to dump this into the markets.
Remember once you use that up then what? You will feel even more frantic as you have nothing left to do. The markets could easily drop another 10% from here.
Which is part of the reason we didn't do it. Trying to call a bottom is as silly as the top.
But as for "used it up" fully funding an IRA is not very much money at all. For both of us it's less than $10k. That's barely a fancy vacation, not a small
Post by: LAGuy on February 09, 2018, 04:28:06 PM
Post by: facepalm on February 09, 2018, 05:24:34 PM
Only the great Thorstach can call tops and bottoms! This is heresy!Nahh, Thorsach only calls tops. We get to call bottoms.
I'm calling a soggy bottom--sort of like a reverse muffin top.
I've been entertaining myself by reading the popular press market news today. First it was "Dow snaps losing streak with huge gain at open"and then 30 minutes later it was "market gives up gains in early trading" then "market up, positive note to end a down week" and now we're back to "catastrophic market plunge caps worst week since 2008".The press has been even more entertaining as of late. The funniest thing I heard was that the correction was caused by some VIX/XIV play that went sour.
These people clearly have no idea what they're taking about. Trying to fit a narrative to this sort of volatility is hilarious. Is it deficit spending, or inflation fears, or white house turmoil, or all of the above on a rotating 15 minutes schedule? They should just print "computer algorithms amplify market swings and nobody understands why" every day for the next month.
Wait, I meant to say "bottom is in."
The only thing more entertaining is that many pundits are now predicting that Bitcoin will go to zero. HAHAHAHAHA!
Post by: waltworks on February 09, 2018, 05:26:01 PM
-Market is super expensive/all time high - "I'm rich!"
-Market is dropping/everyone panics - "My contributions are working harder!"
Seriously, I realize I actually think that way. Very fun.
-W
Post by: Brother Esau on February 09, 2018, 05:34:09 PM
Post by: Travis on February 09, 2018, 07:33:10 PM
Ah, you can't blame the financial press too much. They live for this kind of stuff, and the low volatility of the past year or so has got to have made it a rough time to have been a financial journalist.
I can blame any type of press/media for the words that come out of their mouths. For financial types, it's cheap press to talk about why the market has been going up. They can be 100% wrong and nobody will care. When the market goes down, they're supposed to have the answers to explain bad news to people who assume those talking are experts.
Post by: PhilB on February 10, 2018, 01:58:40 AM
That's dreadful market timing. If the market moves are correlated with the overall economy, then you should eat MORE during a downturn to take advantage of lower priced food and diet during a boom when prices are high. Well established principle - why else do you think the press has been full of pictures of skinny rich people over the last few years?I went on a diet so am able to pump my extra £5 a week savings into the market , i might even go mad and skip filling up & using the car for an extra £20 this month.
Badass me .
I'm surprised people who are quick to yell 'market timer!' at everyone don't jump on people who say I'm doing 'X' to throw more money at the market because it's dipping!
I'm sure you're probably being sarcastic, and I guess whatever gets you saving more is good, but just an observation. Automated DCA all the way, no dry powder and not dipping into my emergency fund to buy more stock.
Actually, that is bad market timing too. If you can do that when the market falls, why were you not doing it when the market was rising too?
Post by: FI4good on February 10, 2018, 07:08:57 AM
That's dreadful market timing. If the market moves are correlated with the overall economy, then you should eat MORE during a downturn to take advantage of lower priced food and diet during a boom when prices are high. Well established principle - why else do you think the press has been full of pictures of skinny rich people over the last few years?I went on a diet so am able to pump my extra £5 a week savings into the market , i might even go mad and skip filling up & using the car for an extra £20 this month.
Badass me .
I'm surprised people who are quick to yell 'market timer!' at everyone don't jump on people who say I'm doing 'X' to throw more money at the market because it's dipping!
I'm sure you're probably being sarcastic, and I guess whatever gets you saving more is good, but just an observation. Automated DCA all the way, no dry powder and not dipping into my emergency fund to buy more stock.
Actually, that is bad market timing too. If you can do that when the market falls, why were you not doing it when the market was rising too?
I've never thought about the skinny rich people scale as an indicator, I had heard about George Taylors' 1926 masterwork hemline index, on researching that i found out about the mens underwear index but suspect the latter is nonsense as it appears not to have been written by an expert with a book or theory to sell .
Thanks for all of the genuine concerned sounding replies, yes it's more about motivation to diet than saving anything.
I already have enough stashed in retirement accounts to be FI at 4% x1.5 with some geographical arbitrage today so I imagine when they become accessible in 12 years time i'll be ok, especially as i'm getting a 200% match up to 7% on my current pension contribution from my employer plus a 40% discount to market share purchase plan and before all of those mathematical additions and tax shenanigans I'm saving roughly 66% of my income after tax.
I wouldn't recommend consuming less calories than you expend as a long term investment boosting strategy but as a short term motivator it can be fun, as can seeing stocks/shares as "on sale".
Post by: DS on February 10, 2018, 08:04:02 AM
This is soooooo normal given the history of the markets. Everyone needs to do a deep breath and chill.
So what you are saying is the bottom is in?
Post by: hodedofome on February 12, 2018, 10:35:27 AM
Post by: anisotropy on February 12, 2018, 12:08:27 PM
Anyone catching the falling knife?
I put $6500 into VTI yesterday. It was down to around 6350 at day's close.
We may have a ways down to go yet, but I don't see an immediate systemic risk. Unless interest rates blow up (or N Korea blows up the Olympics) I think the market is over-sold.
More will go into VTI as it becomes available.
30k+ into dip buying thus far!
Post by: aboatguy on February 12, 2018, 01:16:40 PM
(https://www.nueskes.com/assets/1/20/DimLarge/702_Nueskes_Applewood_Smoked_Unsliced_Slab_Bacon_3lbs.jpg?769)
Post by: Phenix on February 12, 2018, 01:22:44 PM
Was the bottom in, or is this a big bacon bounce?
*Amazing Picture*
That picture is just beautiful.
Post by: aboatguy on February 13, 2018, 06:09:00 AM
Was the bottom in, or is this a big bacon bounce?
*Amazing Picture*
That picture is just beautiful.
if you want to see more amazing meat (I know phrasing) google Nueske's. As a boatguy I literally travelled around the world many times, and I'm seriously thinking about a trip to wisconson in order to visit Nueskes
Looks like they learned about phrasing too:
(https://www.nueskes.com/assets/1/6/MainFCKEditorDimension/Robert_Nueske_truck.jpg)
The question remains, is the bottom in?
Post by: dougules on February 13, 2018, 10:57:07 AM
Was the bottom in, or is this a big bacon bounce?
*Amazing Picture*
That picture is just beautiful.
if you want to see more amazing meat (I know phrasing) google Nueske's. As a boatguy I literally travelled around the world many times, and I'm seriously thinking about a trip to wisconson in order to visit Nueskes
Looks like they learned about phrasing too:
(https://www.nueskes.com/assets/1/6/MainFCKEditorDimension/Robert_Nueske_truck.jpg)
The question remains, is the bottom in?
I think it's a dead muskrat skitter.
Post by: TheAnonOne on February 13, 2018, 01:08:38 PM
I think that's why people don't jump all over it.
(Also the dollar amounts are so negligible, if I cut my entire food budget in HALF *saving 100-200 a MONTH* it wouldn't matter much against the 5,000->9,000 we save monthly. Who cares if its 5k or 5.1k saved that month, my savings rate probably wouldn't change a full % point)
Post by: hodedofome on February 15, 2018, 08:14:03 AM
Post by: alanB on February 15, 2018, 08:52:16 AM
S&P 500 and DJIA coming up on the 50 day moving average today. Nasdaq is already above the 50ma for a few days. Usually the first time SPX and DJIA tests the 50ma it's rejected and goes back down for a little while. We'll see what happens either this week or next.
Meanwhile the 500 day moving average still looks amazing!! Oh sorry, wrong thread, bottom is still in.
Post by: caracarn on February 15, 2018, 09:38:39 AM
Dip is in, time to starting dipping into cash reserves, if you can bear it.What kind of dip? French Onion, seven layer? It's almost lunch time and I'm hungry. Need to know what my options are!
Post by: alanB on February 15, 2018, 09:44:43 AM
Dip is in, time to starting dipping into cash reserves, if you can bear it.What kind of dip? French Onion, seven layer? It's almost lunch time and I'm hungry. Need to know what my options are!
Au jus. Enjoy a steak sandwich in memoriam bull markets past.
Post by: aboatguy on February 15, 2018, 05:13:41 PM
(https://icelandguide.files.wordpress.com/2014/10/22cf57_15c7b5be999d4b61bead80343f72ed44_srz_980_652_85_22_0-50_1-20_0-00_png_srz.png)
Post by: ingrownstudentloans on February 16, 2018, 07:34:01 AM
I hope we hold this level (or go a little more down) for the next week. My company pays bonuses 2/15, so my 401k withholding will be normal paycheck plus bonus withholding...would be nice to get a big chunk right here. If it goes up, oh well...
it looks like my bonus and 2/15 paycheck 401k contributions are going to hit today. Not the bottom*, but I will take it.
I did forget about my company's 401k match contribution though, which hit 2/12 (3% of total 2017 comp), that was closer to the bottom.*
All together, about $10,000 more little green dudes/dudettes into the stache.
* assuming that was the bottom...if not, oh well.
Post by: 2Birds1Stone on February 16, 2018, 07:35:16 AM
Post by: acroy on March 08, 2018, 11:40:33 AM
Post by: anisotropy on March 08, 2018, 12:14:03 PM
the bottom has held since early Feb. wow; I have 100% accuracy on financial predictions... thus far in this thread. let's see how long it lasts. a month is pretty good :)
way to go!
Post by: caffeine on March 08, 2018, 12:36:35 PM
Was the bottom in, or is this a big bacon bounce?
(https://www.nueskes.com/assets/1/20/DimLarge/702_Nueskes_Applewood_Smoked_Unsliced_Slab_Bacon_3lbs.jpg?769)
Where can I get uncut bacon? I want thick bacon.
Also, I feel like I'm getting conflicting information from this thread and the top is in thread.
Bacon is in.
Post by: Financial.Velociraptor on March 08, 2018, 01:05:35 PM
Post by: aboatguy on March 09, 2018, 09:24:44 AM
Was the bottom in, or is this a big bacon bounce?
(https://www.nueskes.com/assets/1/20/DimLarge/702_Nueskes_Applewood_Smoked_Unsliced_Slab_Bacon_3lbs.jpg?769)
Where can I get uncut bacon? I want thick bacon.
Also, I feel like I'm getting conflicting information from this thread and the top is in thread.
Bacon is in.
There is no conflicting information, Bacon is always in!
Post by: dragoncar on November 20, 2018, 04:08:33 PM
Post by: brooklynmoney on November 20, 2018, 05:24:25 PM
Post by: minimalistgamer on November 20, 2018, 07:13:21 PM
Post by: minimalistgamer on November 20, 2018, 07:41:31 PM
Post by: 2Birds1Stone on November 21, 2018, 07:10:18 AM
Well, I just went ahead and purchased $5000 of VTSAX...
Is that why stock futures are up this morning?
Post by: Brother Esau on November 21, 2018, 08:20:12 AM
This is soooooo normal given the history of the markets. Everyone needs to do a deep breath and chill.
So what you are saying is the bottom is in?
Post by: aboatguy on November 24, 2018, 06:03:02 PM
Suit jacket bottom button is never in!
Post by: TeeNixx on November 25, 2018, 11:54:49 AM
There is that little devil on the right shoulder whispering "go with VMMXX, go with VMMXX....") while the guy on the left shoulder insisting on "stay put, stay put...".
What about all those voices I hear?
Post by: GuitarStv on November 25, 2018, 01:52:48 PM
Time for the monthly $5k VTSAX contribution.
There is that little devil on the right shoulder whispering "go with VMMXX, go with VMMXX....") while the guy on the left shoulder insisting on "stay put, stay put...".
What about all those voices I hear?
They're an indication that your music is not yet cranked.
Post by: 2Birds1Stone on November 25, 2018, 02:57:48 PM
What about all those voices I hear?
They're saying, "wait, the stock market will be cheaper in another 2-3 months".
Post by: soccerluvof4 on November 26, 2018, 06:42:07 AM
What about all those voices I hear?
They're saying, "wait, the stock market will be cheaper in another 2-3 months".
I always like They or They're saying! growing up I had to listen to my mom always say Well Phil Donahue said? who are all the experts! I want to meet "They" talking heads.
Post by: aboatguy on November 27, 2018, 06:20:29 AM
Jack Bouroudjian is calling the bottom of the bounce.
Post by: FrugalToque on November 27, 2018, 06:25:11 AM
I've been entertaining myself by reading the popular press market news today. First it was "Dow snaps losing streak with huge gain at open"and then 30 minutes later it was "market gives up gains in early trading" then "market up, positive note to end a down week" and now we're back to "catastrophic market plunge caps worst week since 2008".
These people clearly have no idea what they're taking about. Trying to fit a narrative to this sort of volatility is hilarious. Is it deficit spending, or inflation fears, or white house turmoil, or all of the above on a rotating 15 minutes schedule?
...
Have you ever played Dungeons and Dragons with children?
They'll roll several 3s and 4s in a row and be all like, "My character sucks", then they'll roll a bunch of critical 20s and be all like, "Wow, my Ranger is way better now!"
It's like that.
Post by: dragoncar on November 27, 2018, 11:44:57 PM
I've been entertaining myself by reading the popular press market news today. First it was "Dow snaps losing streak with huge gain at open"and then 30 minutes later it was "market gives up gains in early trading" then "market up, positive note to end a down week" and now we're back to "catastrophic market plunge caps worst week since 2008".
These people clearly have no idea what they're taking about. Trying to fit a narrative to this sort of volatility is hilarious. Is it deficit spending, or inflation fears, or white house turmoil, or all of the above on a rotating 15 minutes schedule?
...
Have you ever played Dungeons and Dragons with children?
They'll roll several 3s and 4s in a row and be all like, "My character sucks", then they'll roll a bunch of critical 20s and be all like, "Wow, my Ranger is way better now!"
It's like that.
I just play with a special d20 for whiners (only has 10+)
Post by: 2Birds1Stone on November 28, 2018, 06:53:09 AM
Post by: DS on November 28, 2018, 08:09:33 AM
Post by: 2Birds1Stone on November 28, 2018, 08:35:36 AM
Post by: SwitchActiveDWG on November 28, 2018, 08:47:05 AM
Post by: 2Birds1Stone on November 28, 2018, 08:57:52 AM
Post by: DS on November 28, 2018, 09:22:09 AM
Post by: Maenad on June 04, 2019, 03:09:00 PM
The Fed will save us from the trade wars. Bottom is in!
Post by: dougules on June 04, 2019, 03:16:25 PM
At the risk of zombifying an old thread...
The Fed will save us from the trade wars. Bottom is in!
I think this thread is alive as long as "Top is in" is alive.
Trade wars = price increases due to tarriffs = inflation
I'm not an economist, but wouldn't lowering rates in an inflationary environment make things even worse? Maybe this is a topic for another thread.
Edit: I did start a new thread.
Post by: aboatguy on June 20, 2019, 06:26:45 PM
Post by: JAYSLOL on June 20, 2019, 11:06:03 PM
The bottom is in?
Correction, the bottom was in, The Top Is In now and forever
Post by: Maenad on June 21, 2019, 09:38:28 AM
At the risk of zombifying an old thread...
The Fed will save us from the trade wars. Bottom is in!
I guessed right! HAHAHAHAHAHA!!! I guess I need to start my market-timing empire.
Post by: Brother Esau on July 03, 2019, 11:15:13 AM
Post by: aboatguy on August 05, 2019, 02:12:58 PM
Post by: Brother Esau on August 08, 2019, 12:15:58 PM
Post by: aboatguy on August 08, 2019, 12:53:22 PM
Post by: Blueberries on August 08, 2019, 01:13:29 PM
I kind of hope we end up off 20% so it'll put an end to all the "Long in the tooth" and "2nd Longest Bull Market Evvaaahhhh!" articles in the media. Tired of reading that crap.
20% won't do it. The Nasdaq was down 23.89% in December 2018 from its August high. The Nasdaq was down 19.53% in 2016 (from July '15 highs).
Post by: aboatguy on August 29, 2019, 08:12:20 PM
Post by: RWD on September 09, 2019, 07:01:06 AM
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/how-the-sp-500-reasonably-climbs-79-to-5300-morning-brief-102421440.html
(Side note: I feel like they forgot that part of total return is dividends which don't contribute to increases in the SP 500)
Post by: aboatguy on December 03, 2019, 08:06:55 AM
Post by: Brother Esau on December 03, 2019, 10:49:10 AM
The post Turkeyday Trump Tweet selloff has begun, when will the bottom be in?
When the opposite of this happens!
thorstach
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Top is in
« on: April 11, 2017, 08:26:07 AM »
Quote
Fear is back, VIX above 15, XIV breaking down. SPY to follow, earnings will be a reality check.
Post by: dragoncar on December 03, 2019, 12:02:43 PM
The post Turkeyday Trump Tweet selloff has begun, when will the bottom be in?
When the opposite of this happens!
thorstach
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Top is in
« on: April 11, 2017, 08:26:07 AM »
Quote
Fear is back, VIX above 15, XIV breaking down. SPY to follow, earnings will be a reality check.
Maybe I’m whooshing but wouldn’t that post be indicative of the bottom? Capitulation=bottom and complacency=top?
Post by: aboatguy on December 12, 2019, 08:12:59 AM
Post by: Brother Esau on December 20, 2019, 12:03:30 PM
Post by: aboatguy on February 21, 2020, 03:31:56 PM
Post by: Brother Esau on February 21, 2020, 04:16:04 PM
is the bottom in?
Since I correctly predicted the Top in the "Top is In" thread (2 days ago, yesterday?....whatever). I'll let you know when to buy back in. Wait for it!
Post by: aboatguy on March 02, 2020, 07:54:37 PM
(https://cdn.thewhoot.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/How-To-Make-Bacon-Recipe--550x339.jpg)
Post by: aboatguy on March 04, 2020, 07:37:37 PM
Recession is in, bottom is not in.However, Thorstache has posted in the Top is In thread so the bottom is probably close...
Post by: Missy B on March 04, 2020, 10:59:08 PM
Lots more choppy trading days ahead... and if there's a cluster of coronavirus near New York, watch the fur fly.
Post by: aboatguy on March 09, 2020, 06:18:47 PM
Post by: dragoncar on March 09, 2020, 06:48:33 PM
Credit Suisse strategists say the bottom has not yet begun to form.....Recession is in, bottom is not in.However, Thorstache has posted in the Top is In thread so the bottom is probably close...
I think he jumped the gun on bottom not in. Bottom not in will probably be in a month or two
Post by: dividendman on March 09, 2020, 07:55:14 PM
Post by: MustacheAndaHalf on March 09, 2020, 08:01:13 PM
Post by: Montecarlo on March 09, 2020, 08:15:45 PM
Post by: dragoncar on March 10, 2020, 03:19:19 AM
Fears of COVID-19 spread sent markets -8% lower yesterday. Lots of panic, and I sold with all the rest of them... because they didn't panic enough. It's my prediction the U.S. will hit 10,000 cases of COVID-19, and trigger another panic.
Why is 10k a magic number?
Post by: bigblock440 on March 10, 2020, 05:38:51 AM
Fears of COVID-19 spread sent markets -8% lower yesterday. Lots of panic, and I sold with all the rest of them... because they didn't panic enough. It's my prediction the U.S. will hit 10,000 cases of COVID-19, and trigger another panic.
Why is 10k a magic number?
Because it's a nice round number that they think the news is going to make a big deal about, creating more panic. Not really any significance other than the general populations reaction to it.
Post by: habanero on March 10, 2020, 06:06:58 AM
Post by: bacchi on March 12, 2020, 02:53:28 PM
All in; it's nothing but top from here on out.
Post by: magnet18 on March 16, 2020, 02:51:25 PM
Ok, I'm calling it. This is the bottom @2480 S&P.
All in; it's nothing but top from here on out.
2386 S&P laughs at you
But I saw a motley fool add saying they're issuing a rare "all in" buy recommendation, and that in 5 years I'll wish I'd bought these stocks
So the bottoms gotta be in now
Post by: dragoncar on March 16, 2020, 02:58:09 PM
Ok, I'm calling it. This is the bottom @2480 S&P.
All in; it's nothing but top from here on out.
2386 S&P laughs at you
But I saw a motley fool add saying they're issuing a rare "all in" buy recommendation, and that in 5 years I'll wish I'd bought these stocks
So the bottoms gotta be in now
While I think this is a decent buy level, my gut tells me the bottom won’t be in until They issue a rare “give up” recommendation
Is the time magazine cover in yet?
Post by: Buffaloski Boris on March 16, 2020, 03:09:16 PM
Ok, I'm calling it. This is the bottom @2480 S&P.
All in; it's nothing but top from here on out.
2386 S&P laughs at you
But I saw a motley fool add saying they're issuing a rare "all in" buy recommendation, and that in 5 years I'll wish I'd bought these stocks
So the bottoms gotta be in now
While I think this is a decent buy level, my gut tells me the bottom won’t be in until They issue a rare “give up” recommendation
Is the time magazine cover in yet?
We need a business week cover declaring the end of equities. Absent that, I think this rollercoaster is just getting started.
Post by: Brother Esau on March 17, 2020, 09:04:21 AM
Post by: vand on March 17, 2020, 09:34:34 AM
Post by: dandarc on March 17, 2020, 09:36:30 AM
We may have found buyers at Dow @20k.Be interesting to see how long it takes them to run out of money.
Post by: aperture on March 17, 2020, 09:57:51 AM
I'm thinking it should start with "Great"
Post by: dragoncar on March 24, 2020, 11:13:11 AM
Post by: bthewalls on March 24, 2020, 01:26:48 PM
Bottom will be in when USA is saturated with covid..
I bet my mother in law that I am right! Who taking bets?
Post by: dragoncar on March 24, 2020, 01:52:40 PM
bottom is NOT NOT NOT in!
Bottom will be in when USA is saturated with covid..
I bet my mother in law that I am right! Who taking bets?
Define saturated with covid and I'll take the bet
Post by: Buffaloski Boris on March 24, 2020, 02:07:04 PM
We may have found buyers at Dow @20k.Fools and their money are soon parted.
Post by: xander on March 24, 2020, 02:12:01 PM
Post by: Buffaloski Boris on March 24, 2020, 02:13:15 PM
Bottom may be in. I’m getting FOMO because I haven’t rebalanced or leveraged in yet! I’m just sitting here doing nothing like a chump!
And you’ll feel like a real chump when/if the market takes a second dive.
The Fed just initiated QE to infinity and beyond! and Congress looks like it’s going to dump a couple trillion into the economy. I should hope that gooses the market a bit. The question is does it last?
Post by: Buffaloski Boris on March 24, 2020, 02:14:16 PM
The night is darkest just before the dawn.
The light at the end of the tunnel might well be a freight train.
Post by: Cabaka on March 24, 2020, 02:18:58 PM
Bottom may be in. I’m getting FOMO because I haven’t rebalanced or leveraged in yet! I’m just sitting here doing nothing like a chump!
bottom may be in is the usa and world can avoid a recession/depression.
only took 6 trillion in federal bank money and 2 trillion from taxpayers, basically 8 trillion in spending in a 15 trillion dollar economy to keep it afloat; yes this will work out well.
Post by: Painters Brush on March 24, 2020, 02:35:21 PM
Bottom will be in when USA is saturated with covid..
My opinion only folks...
I saw a clip of a hospital corridor in Spain with people laying on the floor. The hospital was overwhelmed.
Looking at a chart of nations infection trajectories and also looking at USA news, I'm convinced that USA is in for a shock - two of them.
Shock One - When current high infection zones become overwhelmed something like Spain. We should be 2-3 weeks away. Measures taken might change that curve. Regardless, it will surprise people. The news won't be good.
Shock two: When Red states realize that the infection multiplies in numbers like we're seeing in NY.
Shock two, I believe, is when Washington shuts down America big time and I find it hard to believe that this will not be a major stock market drop.
Post by: londonbanker on March 24, 2020, 03:16:51 PM
bottom is NOT NOT NOT in!
Bottom will be in when USA is saturated with covid..
I bet my mother in law that I am right! Who taking bets?
Is your MIL any hot??
Post by: MustacheAndaHalf on March 24, 2020, 03:49:26 PM
She's very hot - I think the medical term is a fever.bottom is NOT NOT NOT in!
Bottom will be in when USA is saturated with covid..
I bet my mother in law that I am right! Who taking bets?
Is your MIL any hot??
(Not my MIL, but couldn't resist the joke)
Post by: bthewalls on March 24, 2020, 05:01:20 PM
Bottom will be in when USA is saturated with covid..
My opinion only folks...
I saw a clip of a hospital corridor in Spain with people laying on the floor. The hospital was overwhelmed.
Looking at a chart of nations infection trajectories and also looking at USA news, I'm convinced that USA is in for a shock - two of them.
Shock One - When current high infection zones become overwhelmed something like Spain. We should be 2-3 weeks away. Measures taken might change that curve. Regardless, it will surprise people. The news won't be good.
Shock two: When Red states realize that the infection multiplies in numbers like we're seeing in NY.
Shock two, I believe, is when Washington shuts down America big time and I find it hard to believe that this will not be a major stock market drop.
Absolutely agree...USA ain’t seen anything yet
Post by: blue_green_sparks on March 24, 2020, 05:11:19 PM
"Dow rises on hope of more free taxpayer money for big business"
Post by: MaaS on March 24, 2020, 05:17:05 PM
Bottom will be in when USA is saturated with covid..
My opinion only folks...
I saw a clip of a hospital corridor in Spain with people laying on the floor. The hospital was overwhelmed.
Looking at a chart of nations infection trajectories and also looking at USA news, I'm convinced that USA is in for a shock - two of them.
Shock One - When current high infection zones become overwhelmed something like Spain. We should be 2-3 weeks away. Measures taken might change that curve. Regardless, it will surprise people. The news won't be good.
Shock two: When Red states realize that the infection multiplies in numbers like we're seeing in NY.
Shock two, I believe, is when Washington shuts down America big time and I find it hard to believe that this will not be a major stock market drop.
Agree, but I think shock 1A might be this week's unemployment report. Everyone expects it to be bad but it's all a complete guess. I've been astonished by the number of seemingly unrelated companies and industries laying off staff.
Post by: Painters Brush on March 24, 2020, 05:47:32 PM
Agree, but I think shock 1A might be this week's unemployment report. Everyone expects it to be bad but it's all a complete guess. I've been astonished by the number of seemingly unrelated companies and industries laying off staff.
Yes... we haven't even gotten to the many bankruptcies that must ensue, broad dividend cuts, GDP numbers et cetera, et cetera, et cetera.
But you're right, its all a compete guess.
Post by: Jack0Life on March 25, 2020, 02:16:24 PM
Market was up all day and then the last 20 mins, it plunged.
Even with the agreement for the Stimulus bill didn't boost it that much.
I'm guessing we'll see a big dip tomorrow.
Post by: Stachless on March 25, 2020, 08:16:17 PM
I'm thinking the uptick in the market was good while it lasted.
Market was up all day and then the last 20 mins, it plunged.
Even with the agreement for the Stimulus bill didn't boost it that much.
I'm guessing we'll see a big dip tomorrow.
I could be wrong, but I think the market tanked the last 20 minutes on word of Bernie + a few Republicans were in a Mexican standoff and threatening to not get the bill done?
It will almost certainly get done tomorrow - hopefully the market gets to rally on the same news twice. Now go wash your hands!
Post by: Jack0Life on March 25, 2020, 10:18:06 PM
I'm thinking the uptick in the market was good while it lasted.
Market was up all day and then the last 20 mins, it plunged.
Even with the agreement for the Stimulus bill didn't boost it that much.
I'm guessing we'll see a big dip tomorrow.
I could be wrong, but I think the market tanked the last 20 minutes on word of Bernie + a few Republicans were in a Mexican standoff and threatening to not get the bill done?
It will almost certainly get done tomorrow - hopefully the market gets to rally on the same news twice. Now go wash your hands!
Markets is stumbling just a little bit during after hours.
Interesting to see tomorrow.
Post by: 2Birds1Stone on March 26, 2020, 03:15:05 AM
Post by: Jack0Life on March 26, 2020, 09:10:18 AM
With the market plunging the last 20 mins yesterday I thought momentum was gone.
The unemployment didn't deter the market so far today.
Post by: MaaS on March 26, 2020, 09:58:17 AM
I'm a bit shock that the market is on the rise today.
With the market plunging the last 20 mins yesterday I thought momentum was gone.
The unemployment didn't deter the market so far today.
A very surprising turn of events. This is why I only invest long-term. Trying to day trade this stuff would be enough to make a person go mad.
With absolutely no new information, the market will probably randomly decide to sell off 12% one day next week. Then next week's unemployment report will be worse, and we'll rally it all back. Lol.
Post by: VaCPA on March 26, 2020, 10:41:40 AM
Post by: bthewalls on March 26, 2020, 05:15:27 PM
I don't think volatility is quite done yet. Will it drop back to the low it hit this week? I have absolutely no idea. I think optimism is high right now, between the stimulus and Trump's comments about going back to normal in 3 weeks. Of course that is ridiculous and if they try it it'll backfire on him.
Can’t see optimism lasting long after covid rips thru USA ....could easily kill few hundred thought...I read max estimates up to 480000
Post by: dividendman on March 26, 2020, 05:18:21 PM
I don't think volatility is quite done yet. Will it drop back to the low it hit this week? I have absolutely no idea. I think optimism is high right now, between the stimulus and Trump's comments about going back to normal in 3 weeks. Of course that is ridiculous and if they try it it'll backfire on him.
Can’t see optimism lasting long after covid rips thru USA ....could easily kill few hundred thought...I read max estimates up to 480000
If enough people think that then the bottom is in.
Post by: Stachless on March 26, 2020, 05:32:04 PM
I don't think volatility is quite done yet. Will it drop back to the low it hit this week? I have absolutely no idea. I think optimism is high right now, between the stimulus and Trump's comments about going back to normal in 3 weeks. Of course that is ridiculous and if they try it it'll backfire on him.
Can’t see optimism lasting long after covid rips thru USA ....could easily kill few hundred thought...I read max estimates up to 480000
From today:
"The U.S. now has more confirmed coronavirus cases than China, making it the country with the largest outbreak in the world."
Also from today:
"It might not feel like it, but a new bull market in stocks is under way—at least by one definition. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up more than 23% from recent intraday lows. Will the Covid-19 bull market date to March 26, 2020?"
The market is forward-looking...what if the 'worst case' was already priced in?
I certainly don't know the answer to this...but what I am willing to wager on is that humanity will not only survive, but continue to thrive.
Post by: Montecarlo on March 27, 2020, 07:12:29 AM
Post by: MaaS on March 27, 2020, 08:50:39 AM
the whole efficient market hypothesis should probably be firmly rejected based off of ZOOM vs ZM
The crazy thing is this isn't the first time this has happened. When Zoom Video Communications IPO'ed, Zoom Technologies (the wrong Zoom) exploded.
Post by: wienerdog on March 27, 2020, 09:10:26 AM
I don't think volatility is quite done yet. Will it drop back to the low it hit this week? I have absolutely no idea. I think optimism is high right now, between the stimulus and Trump's comments about going back to normal in 3 weeks. Of course that is ridiculous and if they try it it'll backfire on him.
Can’t see optimism lasting long after covid rips thru USA ....could easily kill few hundred thought...I read max estimates up to 480000
From today:
"The U.S. now has more confirmed coronavirus cases than China, making it the country with the largest outbreak in the world."
Also from today:
"It might not feel like it, but a new bull market in stocks is under way—at least by one definition. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up more than 23% from recent intraday lows. Will the Covid-19 bull market date to March 26, 2020?"
The market is forward-looking...what if the 'worst case' was already priced in?
I certainly don't know the answer to this...but what I am willing to wager on is that humanity will not only survive, but continue to thrive.
This pretty much happens every time. Ask around I bet you find many people already had the virus. I know the US passed 80,000 but I bet the real number is closer to a million or 10 times what is reported. The more people I talk to I believe it to be true. I was sick in January for 2 days. Fever, chills, cough and out of breath with very little effort. I happen to have a yearly doctors appointment the 3rd day but I had broke the fever and was back to normal. Not 100% but I felt much better where I could do things. and was planning to go to work after my appointment. Doctor tested me for strep at office and took blood work after that strep test proved to be negative. I was told to stay home and away from people as the blood was taken on Friday and results wouldn't be back until Monday. The mono test with the blood work came back negative also. He didn't test for influenza but did asked if I get a shot.
My mom was diagnosed with pneumonia in early February after being tested for influenza. Her boyfriend had coughing and same symptoms of Corona shortly before (both in their 70s). I talked to guys in Detroit that said something spread like a wildfire in their office in January. Same thing many of them didn't go to the doctor but the one that did was told they had an upper respiratory infection.
A co-worker at work same thing. Traveled to Spain in late January after I was sick. Fever, chills cough and "gurgling" while breathing which was labored. Over the shelf medicine and it is was gone in a few days. I have never used cough medicine in my life. In January was the first time I have bought it. Not saying it wasn't bad as I haven't had an ass kicking like that in some years. Probably the last time was when I had Strep over 10 years ago and broke down and went to the doctor when I couldn't kick it in a couple days.
Long story short don't always believe the media as they want to create something that isn't true. Many times they always find all these models are wrong but the media will run with it because big news is their business. More and more times they are finding this to be true. For more on the subject as this isn't anything new:
https://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/article?id=10.1371/journal.pmed.0020124
Don't forget heart disease kills over 2000 people a day in the US. If the media really cared they would be working on changing the American diet. Keep your immune system healthy folks as the body is an amazing thing and knows what to do at exactly the right time. I am not saying go around licking door knobs and hand rails as you still have to be smart but I believe this is way overblown much as the study has found happens.
Post by: Jack0Life on March 27, 2020, 02:11:16 PM
I'm guessing the Dow will drop under 20k again next week.
I don't see anything positive coming next week except for more doom and gloom.
Bottom is not in.
Post by: wienerdog on March 27, 2020, 02:13:46 PM
I'm guessing the Dow will drop under 20k again next week.
Sweet! I am buying for the 401k at the end of the month.
Post by: bthewalls on March 27, 2020, 02:35:56 PM
Im not sure if the USA is like the UK, but the UK are limiting testing to prevent panic at the TRUE number....they say multiple by 10 at least..
i think market gonna tank twice.
Post by: waltworks on March 27, 2020, 04:39:23 PM
And if it doesn't, I won't need all those ones and zeros on Vanguard's server anyway.
I'll buy all the way down!
-W
Post by: 2Birds1Stone on January 24, 2022, 07:36:42 AM
Post by: waltworks on January 24, 2022, 08:17:07 AM
S&P as of today is up 80% from March 2020, for reference (dividends reinvested). And yes, I bought all the way down (and back up) and made out like a bandit.
-W
Post by: PDXTabs on January 24, 2022, 08:38:27 AM
S&P as of today is up 80% from March 2020, for reference (dividends reinvested). And yes, I bought all the way down (and back up) and made out like a bandit.
Me too, and I'm excited to do it again!
Post by: waltworks on January 24, 2022, 08:57:59 AM
-W
Post by: dividendman on January 24, 2022, 09:20:39 AM
I did my annual rebalance right about at the tippy top, too. Dumb luck.
-W
My semi-annual rebalance isn't until Feb. 20th... so I'm not sure what I'm rooting for.... so confusing!
Post by: achvfi on January 24, 2022, 09:46:45 AM
Is the bottom in yet? :)
Post by: dblaace on January 24, 2022, 09:48:39 AM
I did my annual rebalance right about at the tippy top, too. Dumb luck.Same here. I moved my 401k to cash in late December in preparation to roll it over to my IRA. I rolled it over last week and am currently 60% cash.
-W
Post by: Blender Bender on January 24, 2022, 01:55:09 PM
Post by: dblaace on January 24, 2022, 02:31:03 PM
Damn it. All green now. Missed potential purchases.Don't worry I'm sure you will get another chance.
"Don't try to catch a falling knife"
Post by: American GenX on January 24, 2022, 04:16:01 PM
I've been heavily invested in a stable value fund through work that has paid 3% annually for about 15 years, no admin fees, staying ahead of inflation, but as of this year, after a sudden change a while back, the fund is paying a net 1.36% annually, right when inflation is taking a huge bite out of its value. So, I'm looking for good buying opportunities to move out.
Post by: dragoncar on January 24, 2022, 04:41:54 PM
Damn it. All green now. Missed potential purchases.
Was there a reason for the reversal? Or just random
Post by: 2Birds1Stone on January 24, 2022, 04:59:00 PM
Damn it. All green now. Missed potential purchases.
Was there a reason for the reversal? Or just random
thorstache......just wait
Post by: waltworks on January 24, 2022, 09:24:26 PM
I've been heavily invested in a stable value fund through work that has paid 3% annually for about 15 years, no admin fees, staying ahead of inflation, but as of this year, after a sudden change a while back, the fund is paying a net 1.36% annually, right when inflation is taking a huge bite out of its value.
Wow, that is awful. For 15 years you held onto this fund?
-W
Post by: volleyballer on January 25, 2022, 10:56:08 AM
Sent from my Pixel 4a (5G) using Tapatalk
Post by: sisto on January 25, 2022, 11:11:55 AM
Post by: ChpBstrd on January 26, 2022, 11:31:28 AM
My lizard brain is now wondering if I should front load our Roth IRAs (mostly vtsax) for the year right now... I was going to switch to DCA this year to smooth things out from a cash flow perspective. I have the money on hand and don't really need it at the moment.
Sent from my Pixel 4a (5G) using Tapatalk
Front load the Roth now.
Sell put options at a nice low strike price with a fat volatility premium.
Either get assigned at a price you like and pocket the value of the option you sold (win), or get a nice consolation prize for missing the bottom (partial win).
Post by: vand on January 27, 2022, 03:04:14 AM
https://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey
Investors Intelligence is slightly less bearish, but getting there. Maybe next week it'll move into the contrarian range if things keep going south.
Post by: MustacheAndaHalf on January 27, 2022, 01:00:46 PM
I've been doing ROTH conversions as the market is dropping. Seemed like a good time since I was planning to do them anyway and now I will have a full year of growth with no future taxes.You have a full year of returns - not necessarily growth. Since 2009, the worst year for the S&P 500 was -4.5%, which can give an unrealistic impression that the stock market returns are positive every year.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY/performance?p=SPY
Post by: achvfi on January 28, 2022, 02:56:07 PM
Luckily I sold half my portfolio end of last year. Plan was to rethink my asset allocation and diversify. Since then I invested most of it back in in last few days trying to catch the falling knife. I still have 10% available to invest.
Is the bottom in yet? :)
Yay Volatility! I followed it all the way down and as per my investment policy when it reached correction territory deployed it all. I am done for now.
Post by: sisto on January 28, 2022, 04:24:23 PM
Fair point! I'm being optimistic that the market will continue to grow. I won't be pulling the money out for quite some time so converting when it was low was a good move and I left room in case other such opportunities arise.I've been doing ROTH conversions as the market is dropping. Seemed like a good time since I was planning to do them anyway and now I will have a full year of growth with no future taxes.You have a full year of returns - not necessarily growth. Since 2009, the worst year for the S&P 500 was -4.5%, which can give an unrealistic impression that the stock market returns are positive every year.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY/performance?p=SPY
Post by: volleyballer on January 29, 2022, 11:30:18 AM
I front loaded the Roth on Wednesday.My lizard brain is now wondering if I should front load our Roth IRAs (mostly vtsax) for the year right now... I was going to switch to DCA this year to smooth things out from a cash flow perspective. I have the money on hand and don't really need it at the moment.
Sent from my Pixel 4a (5G) using Tapatalk
Front load the Roth now.
Sell put options at a nice low strike price with a fat volatility premium.
Either get assigned at a price you like and pocket the value of the option you sold (win), or get a nice consolation prize for missing the bottom (partial win).
The rest is beyond my level of investing savvy!
Sent from my Pixel 4a (5G) using Tapatalk
Post by: DaTrill on January 29, 2022, 12:10:18 PM
My lizard brain is now wondering if I should front load our Roth IRAs (mostly vtsax) for the year right now... I was going to switch to DCA this year to smooth things out from a cash flow perspective. I have the money on hand and don't really need it at the moment.
Sent from my Pixel 4a (5G) using Tapatalk
Front load the Roth now.
Sell put options at a nice low strike price with a fat volatility premium.
Either get assigned at a price you like and pocket the value of the option you sold (win), or get a nice consolation prize for missing the bottom (partial win).
Front-loading is the only reliable way I've experienced to provide higher returns relative S&P 500 index strategy. I estimated this a few years ago and portfolio had experienced about 200 bps in positive relative performance related to DCA, but this of course was in after a long bull market.
Front load every year over your accumulation period (20 years) and your AUM will be significantly and surprisingly higher than DCA. HR people don't like to see me in December every year as I try to get a 0$ paycheck for the first few months of the year.
Post by: DaTrill on January 29, 2022, 12:15:22 PM
Damn it. All green now. Missed potential purchases.
Was there a reason for the reversal? Or just random
Short answer is nobody knows. But if there are short cover rallies and margin calls bring in new money, transfer assets, meet calls, this can all result in late afternoon market rips. This is why it is incredibly dangerous to short in a bear market and the rallies will rip shorts face off. This was also the end of the month and many will rebalance before monthly reports are generated.
Post by: dragoncar on January 29, 2022, 05:42:42 PM
Damn it. All green now. Missed potential purchases.
Was there a reason for the reversal? Or just random
Short answer is nobody knows. But if there are short cover rallies and margin calls bring in new money, transfer assets, meet calls, this can all result in late afternoon market rips. This is why it is incredibly dangerous to short in a bear market and the rallies will rip shorts face off. This was also the end of the month and many will rebalance before monthly reports are generated.
Ah ok, I didn’t know if there was actual.. ya know….. news
Post by: vand on January 31, 2022, 01:56:24 AM
My lizard brain is now wondering if I should front load our Roth IRAs (mostly vtsax) for the year right now... I was going to switch to DCA this year to smooth things out from a cash flow perspective. I have the money on hand and don't really need it at the moment.
Sent from my Pixel 4a (5G) using Tapatalk
Front load the Roth now.
Sell put options at a nice low strike price with a fat volatility premium.
Either get assigned at a price you like and pocket the value of the option you sold (win), or get a nice consolation prize for missing the bottom (partial win).
Front-loading is the only reliable way I've experienced to provide higher returns relative S&P 500 index strategy. I estimated this a few years ago and portfolio had experienced about 200 bps in positive relative performance related to DCA, but this of course was in after a long bull market.
Front load every year over your accumulation period (20 years) and your AUM will be significantly and surprisingly higher than DCA. HR people don't like to see me in December every year as I try to get a 0$ paycheck for the first few months of the year.
You're just adding a short term levered position and deleveraging it over a year. Might work most of the time, but that one time the market crashes and you get a little pink slip in your paycheck might undo all those marginal gains.
If you want to run with leverage there are smarter ways to do it imo.
Post by: Blender Bender on February 01, 2022, 06:20:58 PM
Damn it. All green now. Missed potential purchases.
That moment was this year bottom, so far. I think that it would be 2022 bottom. And I did not buy :) Still better than others selling that day.
Post by: dragoncar on May 09, 2022, 11:46:35 AM
Post by: clifp on May 09, 2022, 01:34:54 PM
Post by: sisto on May 10, 2022, 10:07:54 AM
SooooooI'm now regretting converting $80K from Traditional to ROTH in January, buy also considering converting even more. My networth has come down significantly, but I didn't panic and sell anything in 2000 or 2008 and don't plan to panic now. I'm going to be getting a lump sum soon and planning to invest most of it in FZROX or VTSAX. Currently my taxable is all in Vanguard and Retirement almost all in Fidelity.
Post by: ChpBstrd on May 10, 2022, 10:45:03 AM
The most important lesson I learned about social media and the market bottoms from 1990 and on, is until 80% of the folks forecast another 10% drop, and 1/2 dozen say screw it and sell everything the bottom is not in.That was not the case with the late 2018 correction of 20%.
Post by: clifp on May 10, 2022, 12:19:48 PM
Post by: PDXTabs on June 15, 2022, 04:12:31 PM
Post by: 2Birds1Stone on June 15, 2022, 05:10:01 PM
Was that the bottom that we just lived through?
I know this thread is mostly jesting, but unlikely.
The average peak to trough for timeline of a bear market as been 16 months, we're currently just a hair over 5.
The average decline from peak to trough has been -39.4%, we closed on roughly -23%.
It's possible, but HIGHLY unlikely.
Post by: Heckler on June 15, 2022, 06:01:52 PM
Was that the bottom that we just lived through?
I just dropped $2500 into my RRSP, destined for the S&P, so... maybe!
Post by: Heckler on June 15, 2022, 06:10:52 PM
Was that the bottom that we just lived through?
although, there have been 22 days YTD with just as much upside, so keep on dreaming.
Post by: JAYSLOL on June 15, 2022, 07:33:11 PM
Was that the bottom that we just lived through?
I know this thread is mostly jesting, but unlikely.
The average peak to trough for timeline of a bear market as been 16 months, we're currently just a hair over 5.
The average decline from peak to trough has been -39.4%, we closed on roughly -23%.
It's possible, but HIGHLY unlikely.
Isn’t using the average bear market actually a bad way to predict things? By selecting the average of only bear markets you already skew the average way into bear territory. That’s like saying that since Couple A has 6 kids, and the average Couple with between 6 and 50 kids has 9 kids, then it’s highly unlikely they won’t have 3 more kids. Well, I’m not a mathematician, but I suspect there’s a better process than that to predict Couple A’s likelihood. Not saying we can’t go lower, in fact I’d also be surprised if we didn’t have a moderately deep recession lasting a year or several.
Post by: dragoncar on June 15, 2022, 09:14:27 PM
Was that the bottom that we just lived through?
I know this thread is mostly jesting, but unlikely.
The average peak to trough for timeline of a bear market as been 16 months, we're currently just a hair over 5.
The average decline from peak to trough has been -39.4%, we closed on roughly -23%.
It's possible, but HIGHLY unlikely.
I'm not going to worry until we hit 2020 lows. So probably we will hit them, since the market likes to make me worry
Post by: PDXTabs on June 15, 2022, 09:31:55 PM
I'm not going to worry until we hit 2020 lows. So probably we will hit them, since the market likes to make me worry
I'm not going to worry until we're down 60%, but by then how much further can it fall?
If this is a repeat of 1980 rate hikes I think that the SP-500 only fell ~33% that time.
Post by: lutorm on June 16, 2022, 01:35:26 AM
I'm not going to worry until we're down 60%, but by then how much further can it fall?I think ... 40% ? ;-)
Post by: GuitarStv on June 16, 2022, 07:19:02 AM
I'm not going to worry until we're down 60%, but by then how much further can it fall?I think ... 40% ? ;-)
If it drops 60%, then falls an additional 41% I'm definitely going to take their money for their stocks.
Post by: MustacheAndaHalf on June 16, 2022, 08:24:47 AM
The number 60% is oddly specific, and if you got that from a specific source I'd like to read more about it. Other than Jeremy Grantham, I haven't heard anyone mention a crash that deep, and it does make me curious.I'm not going to worry until we hit 2020 lows. So probably we will hit them, since the market likes to make me worryI'm not going to worry until we're down 60%, but by then how much further can it fall?
If this is a repeat of 1980 rate hikes I think that the SP-500 only fell ~33% that time.
I think the 1980s rate hikes had their roots in the oil embargo of the early 1970s. From 1973-1974 markets experienced a drawdown of 46%. If anything, the U.S. seemed to just try and live with high inflation that time.
Post by: PDXTabs on June 16, 2022, 09:16:45 AM
The number 60% is oddly specific, and if you got that from a specific source I'd like to read more about it. Other than Jeremy Grantham, I haven't heard anyone mention a crash that deep, and it does make me curious.I'm not going to worry until we hit 2020 lows. So probably we will hit them, since the market likes to make me worryI'm not going to worry until we're down 60%, but by then how much further can it fall?
If this is a repeat of 1980 rate hikes I think that the SP-500 only fell ~33% that time.
No, it's just further than the GFC which is the largest draw-down that I've personally lived through. It seems unlikely that this time around will be worse than the GFC, right?
Post by: dragoncar on June 16, 2022, 11:27:54 AM
Post by: vand on June 16, 2022, 11:58:14 AM
Post by: solon on June 16, 2022, 01:34:30 PM
Imma start adding that to everything I say. Make me sound smart.
You have time to grab a cup of coffee, in nominal terms?
What is the airspeed velocity of an unladen swallow, in nominal terms?
Post by: PDXTabs on June 16, 2022, 01:42:19 PM
"in nominal terms"
Imma start adding that to everything I say. Make me sound smart.
I'm going to start doing the opposite. From now on whenever I quote a price it is going to be in 2007 dollars.
Post by: clifp on June 16, 2022, 01:47:36 PM
I don't think the bottom is in yet, but, with the S&P now -24% from its all time highs, I think we're closer to the bottom, at least in nominal terms, than we are to the top.
It feels like we are halfway there. I know that these 6 figure-down days are awfully depressing. I've started looking at writing out of the money on AMZN, GOOG, AAPL, MSFT, and even FB, but I'm still too scared to pull the trigger. I'm glad I have real estate, and my hard money loans are still being paid, so I"m good shape.
Post by: MustacheAndaHalf on June 16, 2022, 02:15:01 PM
I've been bearish since April, which did really well this past week. I'm tired of following CNBC & Bloomberg TV, and so today I shifted 1/5th of my portfolio from inverse ETFs into cash. I also suspect many central banks surprising with rate hikes won't happen often, so the news might not be so bad tomorrow or next week.
So maybe we have a local low point today.
What is the airspeed velocity of an unladen swallow, in nominal terms?Is that in nominal miles per hour or nominal kilometers per hour?
*watches Solon get flung off a bridge by an unseen force*
Post by: PDXTabs on June 16, 2022, 02:30:56 PM
I see, you're taking the 51% drawdown from 2007-2009 and pushing it up to 60%. Oh well, I hoped there was another professional bearish investor I could check out. With a 10 year bull market followed by 3 years in which the market doubled... I doubt many bearish investors remain.
I was using the SP-500 peak/trough of 1,565.15 on October 9, 2007 to 676.53 on March 9, 2009 which I think is more like a 56.7% decline. Of course that's just one "market" and in nominal terms.
I'm not a professional trader or economist but I don't think that there is anything in the history books to compare this market to. We've never had any analogous time to right now in the US or world markets. This is truly unprecedented AFAIK. I would add that we don't know what the ultimate Fed rate would be or even close. I can make an argument that it will top out below 4% and I can make another argument that it will be double digits. Without knowing this we don't know the risk free rate of return, so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯. If anyone tells me they know the future this time I will dismiss them out of hand.
EDITed to add - I do however welcome hypotheses. They make me think.
Post by: Juan Ponce de León on June 16, 2022, 02:39:50 PM
I’m hearing 60%. Plenty of people are saying it. I don’t know if it’s going to be 60% but a lot of really astute people say 60%.
Good to hear, this means there will be a bottom very soon.
Post by: PDXTabs on July 27, 2022, 05:48:40 PM
Post by: ChpBstrd on July 27, 2022, 09:03:23 PM
So the Fed announced a 75 basis point hike and stonks went up? I'm starting to think that the bottom was indeed in.
Yea, super weird that stocks went up at the open and then basically didn’t fluctuate when the actual announcement came out and the risk of a 1% hike was taken off the table. Looks very suspicious to me. A mole might be at the bottom.
Post by: PDXTabs on September 30, 2022, 10:05:14 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ILGn8GsNxE
Post by: JAYSLOL on October 01, 2022, 08:10:48 AM
I'm pretty sure that this guy just called the bottom:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ILGn8GsNxE
This guy called it first
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=dQw4w9WgXcQ
Post by: PDXTabs on October 01, 2022, 09:21:25 AM
I'm pretty sure that this guy just called the bottom:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ILGn8GsNxE
This guy called it first
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=dQw4w9WgXcQ
That guy would never let me down.
Post by: clarkfan1979 on October 01, 2022, 07:40:03 PM
I'm pretty sure that this guy just called the bottom:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ILGn8GsNxE
This guy called it first
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=dQw4w9WgXcQ
That guy would never let me down.
I do think it is possible to occasionally come across a good company that falls on short-term hard times, make an educated guess on buying near the bottom and ride it up better than the market average. It's very difficult, but I think it's possible.
When talking about timing the entire S & P 500, I don't see how it's possible. Just my personal opinion.
This one is better (IMO).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IdkCEioCp24
Post by: PDXTabs on October 17, 2022, 02:31:27 PM
Post by: 2Birds1Stone on October 17, 2022, 02:42:37 PM
Recovery from here sounds nice.
Post by: dragoncar on November 10, 2022, 08:48:40 AM
Post by: JAYSLOL on November 10, 2022, 08:52:41 AM
Good news everybody, 401k contribution going in at end of day
Ouch. lol
Post by: ATtiny85 on November 10, 2022, 11:43:00 AM
Good news everybody, 401k contribution going in at end of day
Your sacrifice is noted and appreciated.
Post by: Wintergreen78 on November 10, 2022, 06:57:11 PM
Good news everybody, 401k contribution going in at end of day
When is your next contribution scheduled?
Asking for a friend.
Post by: dragoncar on November 11, 2022, 10:54:45 AM
Good news everybody, 401k contribution going in at end of day
When is your next contribution scheduled?
Asking for a friend.
Next month
Amazing how mr market can screw us all even though we all have different investment schedules!
Post by: BicycleB on November 15, 2022, 01:31:07 PM
Amazing how mr market can screw us all even though we all have different investment schedules!
Mr. Market has superpowers in this regard. I am currently suffering from his perfidious skills.
Post by: theolympians on November 21, 2022, 05:36:16 PM
Post by: LightStache on November 26, 2022, 11:39:38 AM
Post by: PDXTabs on November 26, 2022, 10:48:06 PM
My dad has been actively investing, poorly, for 40 years now. He told me at Thanksgiving that he's all cash now so the bottom is most certainly in.
Checks out.
Post by: ChpBstrd on December 05, 2022, 08:09:01 AM
Post by: vand on December 22, 2022, 11:06:57 AM
It was all looking so promising just a couple of weeks ago with the Dow at least breaking through the long term downtrend... but that now looks as everything is shot to pieces now and the latest selloff has pushed everything back into "oh shit" territory.
Nasdaq in particular is triggering panic alarms - has violated the supporting trendline pretty early on in the daily cycle, so we should fully expect there to be a retest of the Oct lows and - probably - new lows ahead.
(https://i.postimg.cc/Y9yw4cNr/Capture.png)
Post by: JAYSLOL on December 23, 2022, 02:36:16 PM
Post by: LightStache on December 24, 2022, 07:09:19 AM
FWIW “oh shit” territory is where I prefer to do my investing
Are we in that territory now? Asking for a friend...
Post by: GuitarStv on December 24, 2022, 06:16:52 PM
FWIW “oh shit” territory is where I prefer to do my investing
Are we in that territory now? Asking for a friend...
I hope so. The last five years have been uncomfortably bubbly.
Post by: ChpBstrd on December 24, 2022, 06:21:23 PM
A good reason to watch this forum is because most of the people here are buy and hodl'rs. When they stop preaching the gospel and start talking about maybe earning some interest off their remaining money in a MM account, that'll be the bottom.FWIW “oh shit” territory is where I prefer to do my investing
Are we in that territory now? Asking for a friend...
Post by: vand on December 28, 2022, 12:40:58 PM
Nasdaq composite index and AAPL are both threatening to make new closing lows.
If that happens they will almost certainly lead everything else down to new lows.
Post by: MustacheAndaHalf on December 28, 2022, 07:38:07 PM
https://edition.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed
Weeks ago that indicator showed "greed" and now shows "fear" - but not "extreme fear". My guess is we'll fall into "extreme fear" again within the next couple months, and hit another local bottom.
Post by: Wintergreen78 on December 29, 2022, 06:23:47 PM
A good reason to watch this forum is because most of the people here are buy and hodl'rs. When they stop preaching the gospel and start talking about maybe earning some interest off their remaining money in a MM account, that'll be the bottom.FWIW “oh shit” territory is where I prefer to do my investing
Are we in that territory now? Asking for a friend...
The bottom isn’t in until The Top Is In drops to the second page of threads. It has to drop 12 more spots. It got close earlier this year, but then someone posted to it. That’s why the market hasn’t begun recovering yet.
Post by: AnxietyFly on December 31, 2022, 09:11:11 AM
Post by: JAYSLOL on December 31, 2022, 07:43:11 PM
A good reason to watch this forum is because most of the people here are buy and hodl'rs. When they stop preaching the gospel and start talking about maybe earning some interest off their remaining money in a MM account, that'll be the bottom.FWIW “oh shit” territory is where I prefer to do my investing
Are we in that territory now? Asking for a friend...
The bottom isn’t in until The Top Is In drops to the second page of threads. It has to drop 12 more spots. It got close earlier this year, but then someone posted to it. That’s why the market hasn’t begun recovering yet.
I’m very much tempted to bump that back up the Top of the page to keep the sale on
Post by: Wintergreen78 on December 31, 2022, 08:33:47 PM
A good reason to watch this forum is because most of the people here are buy and hodl'rs. When they stop preaching the gospel and start talking about maybe earning some interest off their remaining money in a MM account, that'll be the bottom.FWIW “oh shit” territory is where I prefer to do my investing
Are we in that territory now? Asking for a friend...
The bottom isn’t in until The Top Is In drops to the second page of threads. It has to drop 12 more spots. It got close earlier this year, but then someone posted to it. That’s why the market hasn’t begun recovering yet.
I’m very much tempted to bump that back up the Top of the page to keep the sale on
Don’t do it! Only nine more spots to go.
Although, I have thought about starting a few threads to get it closer. If you start trying to game the indicator, I’m pretty sure the SEC will come after you for market manipulation. They are watching that thread pretty close.
Post by: MustacheAndaHalf on January 01, 2023, 12:38:39 AM
Portfolio Visualizer gave me the -50.89% drawdown for Oct 2007 to Feb 2009, but I've since learned they use "month to month" calculations that ignore price moves within a month. I think your number is accurate, not mine. But I can't find historical S&P 500 index prices at Yahoo Finance - only ETFs (like SPY).I see, you're taking the 51% drawdown from 2007-2009 and pushing it up to 60%. Oh well, I hoped there was another professional bearish investor I could check out. With a 10 year bull market followed by 3 years in which the market doubled... I doubt many bearish investors remain.I was using the SP-500 peak/trough of 1,565.15 on October 9, 2007 to 676.53 on March 9, 2009 which I think is more like a 56.7% decline. Of course that's just one "market" and in nominal terms.
What data source do you use to view the S&P 500 index prices?
Post by: JAYSLOL on January 01, 2023, 09:28:01 AM
A good reason to watch this forum is because most of the people here are buy and hodl'rs. When they stop preaching the gospel and start talking about maybe earning some interest off their remaining money in a MM account, that'll be the bottom.FWIW “oh shit” territory is where I prefer to do my investing
Are we in that territory now? Asking for a friend...
The bottom isn’t in until The Top Is In drops to the second page of threads. It has to drop 12 more spots. It got close earlier this year, but then someone posted to it. That’s why the market hasn’t begun recovering yet.
I’m very much tempted to bump that back up the Top of the page to keep the sale on
Don’t do it! Only nine more spots to go.
Although, I have thought about starting a few threads to get it closer. If you start trying to game the indicator, I’m pretty sure the SEC will come after you for market manipulation. They are watching that thread pretty close.
I’ll definitely use a burner account then :)
Post by: RWD on January 01, 2023, 01:04:51 PM
A good reason to watch this forum is because most of the people here are buy and hodl'rs. When they stop preaching the gospel and start talking about maybe earning some interest off their remaining money in a MM account, that'll be the bottom.FWIW “oh shit” territory is where I prefer to do my investing
Are we in that territory now? Asking for a friend...
The bottom isn’t in until The Top Is In drops to the second page of threads. It has to drop 12 more spots. It got close earlier this year, but then someone posted to it. That’s why the market hasn’t begun recovering yet.
I’m very much tempted to bump that back up the Top of the page to keep the sale on
Don’t do it! Only nine more spots to go.
Although, I have thought about starting a few threads to get it closer. If you start trying to game the indicator, I’m pretty sure the SEC will come after you for market manipulation. They are watching that thread pretty close.
I’ll definitely use a burner account then :)
Okay, thorstach
Post by: PDXTabs on January 01, 2023, 10:37:05 PM
Post by: JAYSLOL on January 01, 2023, 10:56:31 PM
A good reason to watch this forum is because most of the people here are buy and hodl'rs. When they stop preaching the gospel and start talking about maybe earning some interest off their remaining money in a MM account, that'll be the bottom.FWIW “oh shit” territory is where I prefer to do my investing
Are we in that territory now? Asking for a friend...
The bottom isn’t in until The Top Is In drops to the second page of threads. It has to drop 12 more spots. It got close earlier this year, but then someone posted to it. That’s why the market hasn’t begun recovering yet.
I’m very much tempted to bump that back up the Top of the page to keep the sale on
Don’t do it! Only nine more spots to go.
Although, I have thought about starting a few threads to get it closer. If you start trying to game the indicator, I’m pretty sure the SEC will come after you for market manipulation. They are watching that thread pretty close.
I’ll definitely use a burner account then :)
Okay, thorstach
Top is In
Post by: ATtiny85 on March 31, 2023, 02:08:15 PM
Buying all these equities on sale for a year just feels like cheating.
Post by: BicycleB on March 31, 2023, 02:15:42 PM
This feels like the good ole days when I would lament about 401k contributions going in on a up day. Way back when the Top was In, but it was a youthful in.
Buying all these equities on sale for a year just feels like cheating.
The good times, they always pass!