Author Topic: Bottom is in  (Read 7262 times)

acroy

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Bottom is in
« on: February 09, 2018, 06:35:47 AM »
Anyone catching the falling knife?

I put $6500 into VTI yesterday. It was down to around 6350 at day's close.

We may have a ways down to go yet, but I don't see an immediate systemic risk. Unless interest rates blow up (or N Korea blows up the Olympics) I think the market is over-sold.

More will go into VTI as it becomes available.

FIRE47

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #1 on: February 09, 2018, 06:41:44 AM »
Can't really go wrong if you were planning on doing it anyways.

I agree with the comment on the fundamentals - this is just a reaction to the markets being overheated. That being said the movement seems pretty violent and we havn't really seen any signs that we've turned the corner. Until these intraday swings settle down and we have 2 up days in a row the traditional wisdom says stay away from a market timing perspectiveotherwise it's just a pure gamble. If I was timing the market at this point I'd wait to see these signs or I would probably gamble and pull the trigger if there is another big overreaction like another -4% in one day.

That being said I havn't stopped contributing and I don't bother with timing. Problem is my next lump sum isn't for 2 months.
« Last Edit: February 09, 2018, 06:45:35 AM by FIRE47 »

Mr. Green

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #2 on: February 09, 2018, 06:48:25 AM »
I have some cash sitting on the sidelines for a future real estate play, and some additional cash tied up in CDs. If the drop is large enough I will probably move that cash into VTSAX, as the gains I'll see on the rebound will easily outperform the CDs. It would have to fall another 10% or more for me to consider this though.

Capt j-rod

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #3 on: February 09, 2018, 06:53:57 AM »
I bought some yesterday and I am waiting with the rest. I just bought another rental, so I need to keep some capital around for remodel. It figures that this happens right after I spend my cash on a house... I guess if this is my problem then I have nothing to complain about. It ain't easy growing a bigger stache.

dandarc

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #4 on: February 09, 2018, 07:06:21 AM »
Put 240K into Schwab funds yesterday.  Granted, was pure luck - ETrade has Schwab on the no transaction fee list now, which I noticed Tuesday and so I was simply exchanging my entire soloK into better funds.  Either ETrade doesn't have an option to exchange mutual funds or I was too dumb to notice, so it wound up being sell Tuesday, buy Wednesday.  2.7% extra shares in the 401K is a nice thing.

Mississippi Mudstache

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #5 on: February 09, 2018, 07:21:43 AM »
If the market falls another 10%, I'll probably start paring back monthly expenditures to the bone to shovel in as much as possible. As it stands now, we're only down to Nov. 20, 2017 levels on the S&P 500. Not really getting me too excited yet.

ingrownstudentloans

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #6 on: February 09, 2018, 07:58:17 AM »
I hope we hold this level (or go a little more down) for the next week.  My company pays bonuses 2/15, so my 401k withholding will be normal paycheck plus bonus withholding...would be nice to get a big chunk right here.  If it goes up, oh well...

LAGuy

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #7 on: February 09, 2018, 09:35:50 AM »
I kind of hope we end up off 20% so it'll put an end to all the "Long in the tooth" and "2nd Longest Bull Market Evvaaahhhh!" articles in the media. Tired of reading that crap.

Financial.Velociraptor

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #8 on: February 09, 2018, 09:36:11 AM »
Only the great Thorstach can call tops and bottoms!  This is heresy!

acroy

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #9 on: February 09, 2018, 09:59:16 AM »
Personally I need one more good bust & boom to be FI. 2008-9 crisis was fantastic as I was able to shovel a lot of money into equities and they have done great.

Bonus/retroactive pay raise happens early April for me so to an extent, I have fingers crossed the market will cooperate. As others mentioned, if the dip continues, the bigger it gets the more we'll trim expenses to be able to buy low.

Only the great Thorstach can call tops and bottoms!  This is heresy!
Spread the fun!

alanB

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #10 on: February 09, 2018, 10:16:40 AM »
Dip is in, time to starting dipping into cash reserves, if you can bear it.

FIRE47

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #11 on: February 09, 2018, 10:30:12 AM »
Looks like the bottom was not in could be melting down again today imo.

Tabaxus

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #12 on: February 09, 2018, 10:35:01 AM »
Caught dat knife.  Put $12k into VFIAX yesterday.  $7k of that was simply "what I had available to invest after being paid for the month," but $5k was a specific reallocation, though one I've been thinking about doing for awhile.

Looks like we're going to have another couple percentage point drop today.  So, bottom not in!  Ah well.  Need to decide if I want to clip something out of my $20k "emergency"/cash smoothing fund (I had been thinking about reducing it from $25k to $20k for awhile and decided to pull the trigger on that yesterday, but putting $10k more in today would be pure market timing, I would feel the need to replenish it over the next couple of months).

I don't think I will.  Don't want to start bad habits.   

In any event, have a $7k 401(k) contribution that will happen on the 15th, so if we're still down then, I'll get some of that.

Playing a sad song for the $134k I've put into the market since November, though ($33k in November when I finally got around to offloading cash that had been accumulating, $60k at the end of December from year-end bonus, $11k into 2018 Roth IRA, $11k in January into 401(k), 6900 into HSA, and then this $12k yesterday).   Ah, well.  The only mistake in there--and it was a big mistake, obviously--was letting my cash accumulate for a few months in 2017.
« Last Edit: February 09, 2018, 10:40:07 AM by Tabaxus »

boarder42

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #13 on: February 09, 2018, 10:40:04 AM »
i dont just have cash sitting around waiting

2Birds1Stone

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #14 on: February 09, 2018, 10:42:30 AM »
i dont just have cash sitting around waiting

Leverage ;)!

sol

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #15 on: February 09, 2018, 10:53:57 AM »
I've been entertaining myself by reading the popular press market news today.  First it was "Dow snaps losing streak with huge gain at open"and then 30 minutes later it was "market gives up gains in early trading" then "market up, positive note to end a down week" and now we're back to "catastrophic market plunge caps worst week since 2008".

These people clearly have no idea what they're taking about.  Trying to fit a narrative to this sort of volatility is hilarious.  Is it deficit spending, or inflation fears, or white house turmoil, or all of the above on a rotating 15 minutes schedule?  They should just print "computer algorithms amplify market swings and nobody understands why" every day for the next month.

Wait, I meant to say "bottom is in."

dougules

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #16 on: February 09, 2018, 11:02:13 AM »
I see what you did there.  You're trying to cash in on the opposite end of thorstache's top calling.  Maybe I should rebalance some of my posts into this thread. 

Only the great Thorstach can call tops and bottoms!  This is heresy!

We've not established thorstach's ability to call bottoms, just tops. 

boarder42

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #17 on: February 09, 2018, 11:04:04 AM »
I've been entertaining myself by reading the popular press market news today.  First it was "Dow snaps losing streak with huge gain at open"and then 30 minutes later it was "market gives up gains in early trading" then "market up, positive note to end a down week" and now we're back to "catastrophic market plunge caps worst week since 2008".

These people clearly have no idea what they're taking about.  Trying to fit a narrative to this sort of volatility is hilarious.  Is it deficit spending, or inflation fears, or white house turmoil, or all of the above on a rotating 15 minutes schedule?  They should just print "computer algorithms amplify market swings and nobody understands why" every day for the next month.

Wait, I meant to say "bottom is in."

yeah i have a screen shot from a couple days ago that says dow off 200 - then the dow is up 100 in the ticker and below it - it says dow on track to blow past 200 in losses - just hilarious - by the time they publish the article its changed so much.  they should just have an algorithm that plugs in key words to change the headlines as the market moves

market moves up over 20pts in 10 mins draw words from bucket X

des999

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #18 on: February 09, 2018, 11:10:43 AM »
i dont just have cash sitting around waiting


alanB

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #19 on: February 09, 2018, 11:19:52 AM »
i dont just have cash sitting around waiting
Me neither, dark days for the cash poor.  My previous post was just some dry humor, since I am so illiquid ;)

Phenix

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #20 on: February 09, 2018, 11:40:12 AM »
I started a DAF after the Trump tax plan passed which resulted in an extra $3k in my tax refund.  That hit the checking account this morning and I put in an order for FTIPX in my wife's Roth which will be executed after today's (more than likely) losses.

Bird In Hand

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #21 on: February 09, 2018, 11:41:09 AM »
Although 1/1/2017 would have been a great time to fund my 2017 Roth IRA, I didn't have the liquidity at the time.  I ended up buying $5,500 at yesterday's closing price, so +/- the best time this year at least.

Now I'm stupidly sitting on the fence wondering whether to buy $5,500 at today's closing price for my 2018 Roth IRA.  :D

Travis

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #22 on: February 09, 2018, 11:55:46 AM »
I've been entertaining myself by reading the popular press market news today.  First it was "Dow snaps losing streak with huge gain at open"and then 30 minutes later it was "market gives up gains in early trading" then "market up, positive note to end a down week" and now we're back to "catastrophic market plunge caps worst week since 2008".

These people clearly have no idea what they're taking about.  Trying to fit a narrative to this sort of volatility is hilarious.  Is it deficit spending, or inflation fears, or white house turmoil, or all of the above on a rotating 15 minutes schedule?  They should just print "computer algorithms amplify market swings and nobody understands why" every day for the next month.

Wait, I meant to say "bottom is in."

yeah i have a screen shot from a couple days ago that says dow off 200 - then the dow is up 100 in the ticker and below it - it says dow on track to blow past 200 in losses - just hilarious - by the time they publish the article its changed so much.  they should just have an algorithm that plugs in key words to change the headlines as the market moves

market moves up over 20pts in 10 mins draw words from bucket X

I saw a graph on some news program yesterday that was scaled to make it look like the market simply cratered yesterday.  My own net worth tracker on Personal Capital is rigged in the same fashion (their choice, not mine). 

There's a joke out there that went on a rant about how pundits have no clue what they're talking about spitting out jargon they themselves don't understand. This catastrophic market event could be summed up as "Some stocks were bought, some stocks were sold. Long term investors didn't even notice. Brokers earned $1 billion in fees, but nobody notices or talks about this figure despite it being the most important number in all of personal finance."

I'm a red panda

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #23 on: February 09, 2018, 12:54:29 PM »
We thought about maxing our IRAs for the year yesterday.  But how do we know if the bottom is the bottom?

Making a decision on when the low is the lowest was so stressful to think about we decided to keep just putting in every month like we always do.

boarder42

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #24 on: February 09, 2018, 01:25:52 PM »
We thought about maxing our IRAs for the year yesterday.  But how do we know if the bottom is the bottom?

Making a decision on when the low is the lowest was so stressful to think about we decided to keep just putting in every month like we always do.

what are you doing with that other money sitting around them.  if you can max today you have soldiers sidelined.

I'm a red panda

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #25 on: February 09, 2018, 01:31:49 PM »
We thought about maxing our IRAs for the year yesterday.  But how do we know if the bottom is the bottom?

Making a decision on when the low is the lowest was so stressful to think about we decided to keep just putting in every month like we always do.

what are you doing with that other money sitting around them.  if you can max today you have soldiers sidelined.

Our asset allocation includes 10% cash.  It's there, because we say it should be.

FI4good

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #26 on: February 09, 2018, 01:37:50 PM »
I went on a diet so am able to pump my extra 5 a week savings into the market , i might even go mad and skip filling up & using the car for an extra 20 this month.

Badass me .

boarder42

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #27 on: February 09, 2018, 02:02:24 PM »
We thought about maxing our IRAs for the year yesterday.  But how do we know if the bottom is the bottom?

Making a decision on when the low is the lowest was so stressful to think about we decided to keep just putting in every month like we always do.

what are you doing with that other money sitting around them.  if you can max today you have soldiers sidelined.

Our asset allocation includes 10% cash.  It's there, because we say it should be.

so then you shouldnt be dumping it in if thats what you are supposed to have .

FIRE47

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #28 on: February 09, 2018, 02:14:55 PM »
We thought about maxing our IRAs for the year yesterday.  But how do we know if the bottom is the bottom?

Making a decision on when the low is the lowest was so stressful to think about we decided to keep just putting in every month like we always do.

what are you doing with that other money sitting around them.  if you can max today you have soldiers sidelined.

Our asset allocation includes 10% cash.  It's there, because we say it should be.

so then you shouldnt be dumping it in if thats what you are supposed to have .

My thoughts exactly.

If a 10% fall (although it did come on hard and fast) is causing people to adjust their long term plans, then perhaps the plan is not right for them.

I also have around 5% of my liquid NW "stache" in cash (not counting chequing account which is only around 2% anyways) but a lot more would have to happen before I decide to dump this into the markets.

Remember once you use that up then what? You will feel even more frantic as you have nothing left to do. The markets could easily drop another 10% from here.

JAYSLOL

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #29 on: February 09, 2018, 02:27:05 PM »
Is this an inverse dead thorstach call?

DS

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #30 on: February 09, 2018, 02:32:40 PM »
In the long-run, the bottom's always in. ;)

Apocalyptica602

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #31 on: February 09, 2018, 02:38:13 PM »
I went on a diet so am able to pump my extra 5 a week savings into the market , i might even go mad and skip filling up & using the car for an extra 20 this month.

Badass me .

I'm surprised people who are quick to yell 'market timer!' at everyone don't jump on people who say I'm doing 'X' to throw more money at the market because it's dipping!

I'm sure you're probably being sarcastic, and I guess whatever gets you saving more is good, but just an observation. Automated DCA all the way, no dry powder and not dipping into my emergency fund to buy more stock.

Yankuba

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #32 on: February 09, 2018, 02:47:49 PM »
Robots

dougules

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #33 on: February 09, 2018, 03:03:36 PM »
I went on a diet so am able to pump my extra 5 a week savings into the market , i might even go mad and skip filling up & using the car for an extra 20 this month.

Badass me .

I'm surprised people who are quick to yell 'market timer!' at everyone don't jump on people who say I'm doing 'X' to throw more money at the market because it's dipping!

I'm sure you're probably being sarcastic, and I guess whatever gets you saving more is good, but just an observation. Automated DCA all the way, no dry powder and not dipping into my emergency fund to buy more stock.

Actually, that is bad market timing too.  If you can do that when the market falls, why were you not doing it when the market was rising too?

sol

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #34 on: February 09, 2018, 03:04:32 PM »
I've been entertaining myself by reading the popular press market news today.  First it was "Dow snaps losing streak with huge gain at open"and then 30 minutes later it was "market gives up gains in early trading" then "market up, positive note to end a down week" and now we're back to "catastrophic market plunge caps worst week since 2008".

Then miraculously finishes the day with triumphant headlines about the late day surge suggesting a recovery already in progress.  Whatever, guys.

2Birds1Stone

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #35 on: February 09, 2018, 03:07:46 PM »
I've been entertaining myself by reading the popular press market news today.  First it was "Dow snaps losing streak with huge gain at open"and then 30 minutes later it was "market gives up gains in early trading" then "market up, positive note to end a down week" and now we're back to "catastrophic market plunge caps worst week since 2008".

Then miraculously finishes the day with triumphant headlines about the late day surge suggesting a recovery already in progress.  Whatever, guys.

Another -10% next week!

I'm a red panda

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #36 on: February 09, 2018, 03:16:43 PM »
We thought about maxing our IRAs for the year yesterday.  But how do we know if the bottom is the bottom?

Making a decision on when the low is the lowest was so stressful to think about we decided to keep just putting in every month like we always do.

what are you doing with that other money sitting around them.  if you can max today you have soldiers sidelined.

Our asset allocation includes 10% cash.  It's there, because we say it should be.

so then you shouldnt be dumping it in if thats what you are supposed to have .

My thoughts exactly.

If a 10% fall (although it did come on hard and fast) is causing people to adjust their long term plans, then perhaps the plan is not right for them.

I also have around 5% of my liquid NW "stache" in cash (not counting chequing account which is only around 2% anyways) but a lot more would have to happen before I decide to dump this into the markets.

Remember once you use that up then what? You will feel even more frantic as you have nothing left to do. The markets could easily drop another 10% from here.

Which is part of the reason we didn't do it. Trying to call a bottom is as silly as the top.

But as for "used it up" fully funding an IRA is not very much money at all. For both of us it's less than $10k. That's barely a fancy vacation, not a small

LAGuy

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #37 on: February 09, 2018, 04:28:06 PM »
Ah, you can't blame the financial press too much. They live for this kind of stuff, and the low volatility of the past year or so has got to have made it a rough time to have been a financial journalist.

lhamo

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #38 on: February 09, 2018, 05:21:07 PM »
I'm not bothered by the ups and downs of the past couple of weeks. But it does make me wonder how far things will tank when the next economic downturn based on real data actually does happen.  I think there will be even more panic selling. I held on for the ride last time so plan to do the same next time. But a lot of people without experience and stronger stomachs are probably going to lose their lunch, plus a lot of capital....

facepalm

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #39 on: February 09, 2018, 05:24:34 PM »
Only the great Thorstach can call tops and bottoms!  This is heresy!
Nahh, Thorsach only calls tops. We get to call bottoms.

I'm calling a soggy bottom--sort of like a reverse muffin top.

I've been entertaining myself by reading the popular press market news today.  First it was "Dow snaps losing streak with huge gain at open"and then 30 minutes later it was "market gives up gains in early trading" then "market up, positive note to end a down week" and now we're back to "catastrophic market plunge caps worst week since 2008".

These people clearly have no idea what they're taking about.  Trying to fit a narrative to this sort of volatility is hilarious.  Is it deficit spending, or inflation fears, or white house turmoil, or all of the above on a rotating 15 minutes schedule?  They should just print "computer algorithms amplify market swings and nobody understands why" every day for the next month.

Wait, I meant to say "bottom is in."
The press has been even more entertaining as of late. The funniest thing I heard was that the correction was caused by some VIX/XIV play that went sour.

The only thing more entertaining is that many pundits are now predicting that Bitcoin will go to zero. HAHAHAHAHA!
« Last Edit: February 09, 2018, 05:28:43 PM by facepalm »

waltworks

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #40 on: February 09, 2018, 05:26:01 PM »
I'm quite pleased that I am able to manage the positive cognitive dissonance of:
-Market is super expensive/all time high - "I'm rich!"
-Market is dropping/everyone panics - "My contributions are working harder!"

Seriously, I realize I actually think that way. Very fun.

-W

Brother Esau

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #41 on: February 09, 2018, 05:34:09 PM »
This is soooooo normal given the history of the markets. Everyone needs to do a deep breath and chill.

Travis

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #42 on: February 09, 2018, 07:33:10 PM »
Ah, you can't blame the financial press too much. They live for this kind of stuff, and the low volatility of the past year or so has got to have made it a rough time to have been a financial journalist.

I can blame any type of press/media for the words that come out of their mouths.  For financial types, it's cheap press to talk about why the market has been going up.  They can be 100% wrong and nobody will care.  When the market goes down, they're supposed to have the answers to explain bad news to people who assume those talking are experts.

PhilB

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #43 on: February 10, 2018, 01:58:40 AM »
I went on a diet so am able to pump my extra 5 a week savings into the market , i might even go mad and skip filling up & using the car for an extra 20 this month.

Badass me .

I'm surprised people who are quick to yell 'market timer!' at everyone don't jump on people who say I'm doing 'X' to throw more money at the market because it's dipping!

I'm sure you're probably being sarcastic, and I guess whatever gets you saving more is good, but just an observation. Automated DCA all the way, no dry powder and not dipping into my emergency fund to buy more stock.

Actually, that is bad market timing too.  If you can do that when the market falls, why were you not doing it when the market was rising too?
That's dreadful market timing.  If the market moves are correlated with the overall economy, then you should eat MORE during a downturn to take advantage of lower priced food and diet during a boom when prices are high.  Well established principle - why else do you think the press has been full of pictures of skinny rich people over the last few years?

FI4good

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #44 on: February 10, 2018, 07:08:57 AM »
I went on a diet so am able to pump my extra 5 a week savings into the market , i might even go mad and skip filling up & using the car for an extra 20 this month.

Badass me .

I'm surprised people who are quick to yell 'market timer!' at everyone don't jump on people who say I'm doing 'X' to throw more money at the market because it's dipping!

I'm sure you're probably being sarcastic, and I guess whatever gets you saving more is good, but just an observation. Automated DCA all the way, no dry powder and not dipping into my emergency fund to buy more stock.

Actually, that is bad market timing too.  If you can do that when the market falls, why were you not doing it when the market was rising too?
That's dreadful market timing.  If the market moves are correlated with the overall economy, then you should eat MORE during a downturn to take advantage of lower priced food and diet during a boom when prices are high.  Well established principle - why else do you think the press has been full of pictures of skinny rich people over the last few years?

 I've never thought about the skinny rich people scale as an indicator, I had heard about George Taylors' 1926 masterwork hemline index, on researching that i found out about the mens underwear index but suspect the latter is nonsense as it appears not to have been written by an expert with a book or theory to sell .

Thanks for all of the genuine concerned sounding replies, yes it's more about motivation to diet than saving anything.

I already have enough stashed in retirement accounts to be FI at 4% x1.5 with some geographical arbitrage today so I imagine when they become accessible in 12 years time i'll be ok, especially as i'm getting a 200% match up to 7% on my current pension contribution from my employer plus a 40% discount to market share purchase plan and before all of those mathematical additions and tax shenanigans I'm saving roughly 66% of my income after tax.

I wouldn't recommend consuming less calories than you expend as a long term investment boosting strategy but as a short term motivator it can be fun, as can seeing stocks/shares as "on sale". 
« Last Edit: February 10, 2018, 07:15:39 AM by FI4good »

DS

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #45 on: February 10, 2018, 08:04:02 AM »
This is soooooo normal given the history of the markets. Everyone needs to do a deep breath and chill.

So what you are saying is the bottom is in?

hodedofome

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #46 on: February 12, 2018, 10:35:27 AM »

anisotropy

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #47 on: February 12, 2018, 12:08:27 PM »
Anyone catching the falling knife?

I put $6500 into VTI yesterday. It was down to around 6350 at day's close.

We may have a ways down to go yet, but I don't see an immediate systemic risk. Unless interest rates blow up (or N Korea blows up the Olympics) I think the market is over-sold.

More will go into VTI as it becomes available.

30k+ into dip buying thus far!

aboatguy

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #48 on: February 12, 2018, 01:16:40 PM »
Was the bottom in, or is this a big bacon bounce?


Phenix

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Re: Bottom is in
« Reply #49 on: February 12, 2018, 01:22:44 PM »
Was the bottom in, or is this a big bacon bounce?

 *Amazing Picture*

That picture is just beautiful.