Author Topic: Been day/swing trading my retirement account  (Read 7499 times)

JenniferW

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Re: Been day/swing trading my retirement account
« Reply #100 on: May 08, 2019, 02:27:53 PM »
I believe in passive investing in VTI/VTSAX/BND etc.  But just not now...

I find this statement very interesting.  I honestly don't understand it because by definition, passive investing is... passive.  It sounds like your passive investing is have active tendencies, making it not so passive.
(It reminds me of someone who said they are celibate  ... just not right now because they are having to much fun having sex.)

I just think the market is due for a large correction .. perhaps >50% within next couple years.  Once that happens, I'll just stay in VTI as it cycles up and down sideways for year after year in a long bear market.  By the time I am 67 (48 now), I hope the bear market will have passed and well into another bull market.

I know I could be wrong, and the market could skyrocket from here, but I'm willing to risk that as it seems to me it is more probable for it to go down from here, perhaps after a melt up.  I might not make as much day trading if there is a melt up.  But at least I will have full control of when I am in and out of the market. If there is a melt up, it will be easier for me to day trade as well.  I also like that I can day trade on the way down as well if I wanted with the inverse 3x leveraged index funds.

I really hope the market keeps going up making us all rich :) 

frugledoc

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Re: Been day/swing trading my retirement account
« Reply #101 on: May 08, 2019, 02:34:47 PM »
I believe in passive investing in VTI/VTSAX/BND etc.  But just not now...

I find this statement very interesting.  I honestly don't understand it because by definition, passive investing is... passive.  It sounds like your passive investing is have active tendencies, making it not so passive.
(It reminds me of someone who said they are celibate  ... just not right now because they are having to much fun having sex.)

I just think the market is due for a large correction .. perhaps >50% within next couple years.  Once that happens, I'll just stay in VTI as it cycles up and down sideways for year after year in a long bear market.  By the time I am 67 (48 now), I hope the bear market will have passed and well into another bull market.

I know I could be wrong, and the market could skyrocket from here, but I'm willing to risk that as it seems to me it is more probable for it to go down from here, perhaps after a melt up.  I might not make as much day trading if there is a melt up.  But at least I will have full control of when I am in and out of the market. If there is a melt up, it will be easier for me to day trade as well.  I also like that I can day trade on the way down as well if I wanted with the inverse 3x leveraged index funds.

I really hope the market keeps going up making us all rich :)

Youíre just parroting crap you read/hear in the financial media.  A ďmelt upĒ isnít a real thing.  Itís just people having fun.

You have ignored all the sensible warnings.  Good luck to you, but Iím sorry to say your plan is nothing more than a gamble.

JenniferW

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Re: Been day/swing trading my retirement account
« Reply #102 on: May 08, 2019, 02:50:07 PM »


Youíre just parroting crap you read/hear in the financial media.  A ďmelt upĒ isnít a real thing.  Itís just people having fun.

You have ignored all the sensible warnings.  Good luck to you, but Iím sorry to say your plan is nothing more than a gamble.

Perhaps, but it's moot, I'm day trading and don't have to worry about it at all.

Gambling is going to the casino playing craps, 6 deck blackjack, slots, roulette, etc.. where the odds of winning are against you.. Play them long enough and you have no money left. I don't believe planned trades, where YOU get to make the rules, with opportune entry points are a simple flip of the coin (or worse).. not at all.  Lots of people day trade including institutions wanting to acquire or offload huge amounts of shares in a particular company.  They use VWAP indicators , charts, patterns etc..
« Last Edit: May 08, 2019, 04:29:51 PM by JenniferW »

ScarElbow

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Re: Been day/swing trading my retirement account
« Reply #103 on: May 08, 2019, 03:07:27 PM »
I can't help but laugh at all the insincere, back handed comments of "good luck", "good luck to you" , "wish you luck" followed by "how dare you! You're gonna die a painful death". LOL

The girl clearly stated she understands her strategy with small trade size and she has target risk/reward before placing the trades. She also detailed and demonstrated as such. She also says market direction doesn't matter (which is true) as you can short it. In fact the best time to trade IS when the market is going down as volatility tends to be higher. Traders LOVE volatility.

It's as if no one actually read what she wrote but only projected their bias based on some vague understanding of what she's doing.

frugledoc

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Re: Been day/swing trading my retirement account
« Reply #104 on: May 08, 2019, 03:10:49 PM »
I can't help but laugh at all the insincere, back handed comments of "good luck", "good luck to you" , "wish you luck" followed by "how dare you! You're gonna die a painful death". LOL

The girl clearly stated she understands her strategy with small trade size and she has target risk/reward before placing the trades. She also detailed and demonstrated as such. She also says market direction doesn't matter (which is true) as you can short it. In fact the best time to trade IS when the market is going down as volatility tends to be higher. Traders LOVE volatility.

It's as if no one actually read what she wrote but only projected their bias based on some vague understanding of what she's doing.

Traders must love going bust given that is what happens to at around 90%


JenniferW

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Re: Been day/swing trading my retirement account
« Reply #105 on: May 08, 2019, 04:00:06 PM »
I definitely was one of those 90% before. But I didnít have any education on day trading. Learning so much lately.  Weíll see.  I feel confident about it anyways.  Along with Muhsenís videos on Udemy, I am learning from the book of a guy who won the U.S. Trading Championship, Mark Minervini.  David Ryan wrote a Forward in Markís bookó David won that competition 3 years in a row.  David is the protege of William OíNeil who created the CAN SLIM system.  I have William OíNeilís book as well and am going to read that after Markís.  Seems like what I get so far is Mark, David, and William are swing traders.. but I am still getting tons of valuable info from those books as I rather day trade with stocks which are in the appropriate phase and have the appropriate characteristics for super performance.

Today, I read on Investorís Business Daily (which William OíNeil owns) that NYT had great earnings surprise and to keep an eye on the stock.  For fun I did eye it and if I hadnít used up my day trades I would of bought it when it was down half percent today and sold when it was about 3.5 percent up.  Would of had a 4% gain.  Was tempted to do it anyways but didnít want to get locked in until tomorrow as who knows what tweet might happen overnight or some other economic/political event.  Scary to swing trade with past 3 days of volatility.
« Last Edit: May 08, 2019, 04:19:35 PM by JenniferW »

Wintergreen78

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Re: Been day/swing trading my retirement account
« Reply #106 on: May 08, 2019, 04:51:40 PM »
Youíve named several people: Muhsen, Mark Minervi, David Ryan, William OíNeil. Can any of them show you their 5-year, 10-year, and longer period returns and Sharpe ratios?

Anyone can write a book. A lot of people can have a run of luck. But unless they can sustain that over decades, it doesnít do much good.

Telecaster

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Re: Been day/swing trading my retirement account
« Reply #107 on: May 08, 2019, 04:52:02 PM »
She also says market direction doesn't matter (which is true) as you can short it. In fact the best time to trade IS when the market is going down as volatility tends to be higher. Traders LOVE volatility.

The rub is you never actually know it is on the way down until after the fact. 

JenniferW

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Re: Been day/swing trading my retirement account
« Reply #108 on: May 08, 2019, 05:04:51 PM »
She also says market direction doesn't matter (which is true) as you can short it. In fact the best time to trade IS when the market is going down as volatility tends to be higher. Traders LOVE volatility.

The rub is you never actually know it is on the way down until after the fact.

Well I'd be looking at the catalysts, economic news, the momentum, the associated volume, candlesticks, supports/resistances, chart patterns/trends to attempt to enter at a point where I can capture 1-3% of the particular downturn in a very short term day trade.  If it doesn't go as expected, I'll stop out at a loss of say -0.5 to -1.0%.  Sometimes I'll be wrong, but I as long as my batting average is 50% or better and win/loss ratio is say 1.5 or better, I'm good.

Financial.Velociraptor

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Re: Been day/swing trading my retirement account
« Reply #109 on: May 08, 2019, 05:37:20 PM »
Is your account under the 25,000 thresh hold for unlimited day trading?  It hardly matters if you are talking about day trading less than 1% of less than 25k (less than 250 bucks per trade).  @JenniferW

BicycleB

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Re: Been day/swing trading my retirement account
« Reply #110 on: May 08, 2019, 05:44:16 PM »
I think I posted it more for someone to talk me out of it rather than get permission honestly.

If the above is true, we (the someones who tried to talk you out of it) have failed. Still, you are the captain of your soul.

I can't help but laugh at all the insincere, back handed comments of "good luck", "good luck to you" , "wish you luck" followed by "how dare you! You're gonna die a painful death". LOL

Some of us are perfectly sincere, just skeptical.


The girl clearly stated she understands her strategy with small trade size and she has target risk/reward before placing the trades. She also detailed and demonstrated as such. She also says market direction doesn't matter (which is true) as you can short it. In fact the best time to trade IS when the market is going down as volatility tends to be higher. Traders LOVE volatility.

It's as if no one actually read what she wrote but only projected their bias based on some vague understanding of what she's doing.

Or they read her own comment that she wanted someone to talk her out of it. And responded as she requested.

There is a question as to how vague and how precise understanding can be. This is true for stock trades and for personality. Both have a lot of factors going on.

Maybe no one here has ever felt temptation, talked ourselves into accepting it, appealed for help and then wiggled away to succumb to our temptation again.

Somewhere in my city there is some ice cream calling me. Wish me luck in resisting in it. It claims to be cold and delicious.

JenniferW

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Re: Been day/swing trading my retirement account
« Reply #111 on: May 08, 2019, 07:00:26 PM »
Is your account under the 25,000 thresh hold for unlimited day trading?  It hardly matters if you are talking about day trading less than 1% of less than 25k (less than 250 bucks per trade).  @JenniferW

It's under $8k currently in my Roth IRA account.  Why doesn't it matter?  Anyways, I'll be contributing $500 per month to it.  I imagine it could take to up to a couple years to get it to over $25k, depending on how well I do with the day trading.

Basically I'll have three accounts at TD Ameritrade I make monthly contributions to: Roth IRA, Individual and Roth Solo 401k.  Each contribution will be about $500 to each account.. so about $1500 per month between the three. Unfortunately each account has its own $25k requirement.
« Last Edit: May 08, 2019, 07:02:28 PM by JenniferW »

ScarElbow

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Re: Been day/swing trading my retirement account
« Reply #112 on: May 08, 2019, 07:06:09 PM »
It's one thing to try talking someone out of something you deem dangerous, it's another to scare the bejezuz out of them by citing some statistics you have little to no first hand experience with. Even if you do, what does that have to do with her or anybody else? How do you know she's not resilient enough to get up after failures? How do you know she's not already taking all the measured risks? Do you understand her strategy? If yes (because you're sincerely skeptical based on actual trading experience and not some regurgitated arguments I have already heard over and over), can you counter it with your own trading strategy? Can you truly navigate her inner psyche to understand why shes doing what she does?

I hope your ice cream tastes delicious. Sincerely.
« Last Edit: May 08, 2019, 07:25:35 PM by ScarElbow »

JenniferW

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Re: Been day/swing trading my retirement account
« Reply #113 on: May 08, 2019, 07:38:26 PM »
I'm enjoying the conversation.  I can learn from everyone here and respect/appreciate every comment.  Also, anything I say I hope it isn't upsetting anyone -- don't mean to do that.   I don't mind people being hard on me.  I understand their perspective. What I am doing is quite unusual I realize.

I've read Bogle's book along with Jim Collin's Simple Path to Wealth.  I really respect what they have to say.  I just started out with my financial independence, since October of last year, and have been working hard at being frugal and saving every penny I can.  Learned so much from this forum and MMM's blog.  I just would hate to see Wall Street take from me half or more of what I just put in, with a potential crash very soon.  (Even Bogle, just a couple months before he passed -- God Bless his soul -- suggested allocating more money to bonds/cash due to the market conditions.. I think even he was concerned about it.).  Also, I learned about the Shiller P/E ratio from MMM himself from a blog post he made what about a year ago?  He was starting to show some concern as well I believe.

I really would like to invest like Bogle/Collins and I will do that someday (perhaps soon), I just can't get over the fear of losing it in the short term.  I hope the big correction happens soon enough so I don't have to day trade because I rather spend my time doing other things. But that said, I do for some reason seem to be enjoying what I am learning and doing okay with it so far.

I feel comfortable knowing I can't lose say more than 1.5% at at time.  I keep a journal of all trades in a spreadhseet, commenting on each trade in detail.  I re-read the entries over and over so I can make sure I learn from any mistakes.  I keep a running batting average, win/loss ratio, avg return per trade etc. in each row of the spreadsheet as well.  If my batting average or w/l ratio starts dropping, it will only cause me to analyze things more, re-reading my comments on the trades, to see what I'm doing wrong and how I can improve.

I lost 1.21% with VTWO and 1.37% with AAPL recently, both due to being swing trades in a volatile environment, where I had absolutely no control over precise exit point, being locked in.  These are the only two trades I lost other than the WTI day trade where I lost only 0.75%. (If I hadn't of exited WTI at 0.75% loss I would of been down 2.8% because it dropped much further.).  The first swing trade I entered VTWO I wasn't expecting the market to dive like it did over the weekend.. I had one day trade left and I could of exited Friday with a 0.3% gain.  I really believed that with the jobs report of record 49 year unemployment and the fact there wasn't any significant economic news announcements on Monday, that I'd be safe.. but then Trump tweeted about increasing Chinese tariffs from 10% to 25% on 300 billion dollars of goods.   The other swing trade I lost, I entered pre-market on Tuesday.  I had bought AAPL when it was 1% down premarket.  That day I purchased AAPL was at a golden cross point where the 50 day moving average crosses over the 200 day, and I figured the market would rebound like it did the day before with respect to tarriff threats but that didn't happen.. it got much worse; and there was nothing I could do about it but watch my balance deplete by $190.  I couldn't trade because of the stupid PDT rule.   It actually went up 0.30% that morning before it declined and I would of sold it then had I had a day trade left.  But nope, had to watch it go down like 3%.  Fortunately I got out of it the next day after market opened trailing it manually with a stop until it reversed.  Only lost 1.3% on that. Anyways, so my lesson I learned is don't swing trade anymore especially since things are much more volatile now. Swing trading is more of a gamble in the short term, no control.  I'm still up 2.37% since I opened my TD Ameritrade account last week.
« Last Edit: May 08, 2019, 08:16:33 PM by JenniferW »

Financial.Velociraptor

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Re: Been day/swing trading my retirement account
« Reply #114 on: May 08, 2019, 08:13:47 PM »
  Why doesn't it matter?

So you are making a few percent of less than 250 dollars three times a week?  Assuming 2 percent gain (a bigly gain for a day trade!) you are making, at best, 15 dollars a week before commissions.  In 1,000 years you will be rich!  But more importantly, your ability to keep your emotions out of the trade at 250 bucks is a lot different than at 10k or more.  Are you sure this is sustainable 10 years from now when you have material capital on the line?  Can you stay rational?

I wish you luck (and I'm a trader myself [of sorts]).  But I caution you to recognize that you have yet to be truly tested either by yourself or the market.  I recommend setting a policy now of establishing every trade with a predefined trailing stop loss (and to tighten that stop as the day wears on). 

Also, it sounds like based on your account balances that you are new to the markets.  Good traders develop over decades.  You have a long and steep road ahead if you want to make day trading work (most people fail!)  I have settled on a short term trading strategy that works for me.  I figured out early on day trading is not where I wanted to be.  Be open to learning about higher percentage approaches to the market that rely on a longer time frame than a day. 

JenniferW

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Re: Been day/swing trading my retirement account
« Reply #115 on: May 08, 2019, 08:20:14 PM »
If you read my previous posts I set up trigger bracket buy order with both LIM and STP orders.  I trail the STP manually as I see fit depending on circumstances.   I don't leave the trade unattended after I enter.  I might set some alerts if I have to step away.

Also I have two months free commissions.  Also TD Ameritrade lets you negotiate the trade commissions, and I should be able to get them at $3.00 per trade.  If not there is always Interactive Brokers which is around $1 per trade.

I put up my entire account balance per trade.  I made $400 in two trades last week.  Had I been charged commissions on those, it would of been $12.  So $400-12. = $382.
« Last Edit: May 08, 2019, 08:26:29 PM by JenniferW »

BicycleB

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Re: Been day/swing trading my retirement account
« Reply #116 on: May 08, 2019, 08:40:33 PM »
It's one thing to try talking someone out of something you deem dangerous, it's another to scare the bejezuz out of them by citing some statistics you have little to no first hand experience with. Even if you do, what does that have to do with her or anybody else? How do you know she's not resilient enough to get up after failures? How do you know she's not already taking all the measured risks? Do you understand her strategy? If yes (because you're sincerely skeptical based on actual trading experience and not some regurgitated arguments I have already heard over and over), can you counter it with your own trading strategy? Can you truly navigate her inner psyche to understand why shes doing what she does?

I hope your ice cream tastes delicious. Sincerely.

Since this referred to ice cream, I am assuming it's directed at me.

What statistics did I quote? I am not trying to scare her. What did I write that makes you think I did?

As far as relience, measured risks, etc. - the main reason for my own remarks is her own comments. I quoted directly where she herself stated that she posted this thread because she wanted someone to talk her out of swing/day trading. When I post in this forum, I generally try to help people achieve their goals by responding directly to their questions and requests. This is no different.

In service of her stated desire to be talked out of day/swing trading, I did notice that in several of her posts, she talked about trying to be in control. Comparing that desire to the request to be talked out swing/day trading, I assume that she has in internal struggle of control on multiple levels, because presumably she is trying to control her investment results through trading activity, yet her request for assistance implies that she is struggling to control her own temptation to trade.

I am sympathetic to internal struggles, because I have my own, such as difficulty in resisting the allure of ice cream. It is unwise to eat it, yet I do, hence I offered the example. I myself have attempted to resist one lure or another and mentioned a need for help, but later been temporarily resistant to said help afterwards. OP looks like they're doing the same thing. If I misinterpret her, it is an honest mistake - reading minds is difficult over the internet, I am just doing the best I can by reading the OP's words.

I haven't eaten any ice cream while answering this, though. So far the keyboard kept me away from the grocery. Winning minute by minute... :)

ScarElbow

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Re: Been day/swing trading my retirement account
« Reply #117 on: May 09, 2019, 08:37:53 AM »
You can disagree with this but I don't think comparing the temptation of ice cream to trading is right at all. One is a high on sugar that gives you pimples, diarrhea, and all sort of interesting ailments, the other "dangerous" activity if taken seriously has the potential to open up so many opportunities, including early retirement and freedom. I can attest to that.

BicycleB

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Re: Been day/swing trading my retirement account
« Reply #118 on: May 09, 2019, 09:15:02 AM »
You can disagree with this but I don't think comparing the temptation of ice cream to trading is right at all. One is a high on sugar that gives you pimples, diarrhea, and all sort of interesting ailments, the other "dangerous" activity if taken seriously has the potential to open up so many opportunities, including early retirement and freedom. I can attest to that.

You keep repeating and varying arguments that assert or imply trading is good. I'm not here to argue about that, I'm just trying to help OP as she asked.

You seem to have written to me as if I'm someone else, ignoring what I actually wrote, so I asked you questions intended to determine if you actually read my individual posts or are confusing me with other thread participants. Are you going to answer my questions?

It's one thing to try talking someone out of something you deem dangerous, it's another to scare the bejezuz out of them by citing some statistics you have little to no first hand experience with.

What statistics did I quote? I am not trying to scare her. What did I write that makes you think I did?
« Last Edit: May 09, 2019, 09:17:22 AM by BicycleB »

ScarElbow

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Re: Been day/swing trading my retirement account
« Reply #119 on: May 09, 2019, 09:27:46 AM »
Relax, I'm responding to a collective voice with reference to memorized details from 1, 2, or even 3 posts. I'm lumping everything together. Could have yours in there too, who knows.  That's why I don't quote anything or anyone in particular.
« Last Edit: May 09, 2019, 09:29:35 AM by ScarElbow »

BicycleB

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Re: Been day/swing trading my retirement account
« Reply #120 on: May 09, 2019, 09:48:04 AM »
Relax, I'm responding to a collective voice with reference to memorized details from 1, 2, or even 3 posts. I'm lumping everything together. Could have yours in there too, who knows.  That's why I don't quote anything or anyone in particular.

Thanks for clarifying.

As far as relaxing - if your attention to detail in investing is similar to your attention to detail about who you're talking to, my suggestion to  OP is to discount your advice.

ScarElbow

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Re: Been day/swing trading my retirement account
« Reply #121 on: May 09, 2019, 09:54:22 AM »
LMAO now I know you're just talking out of spite. No need to continue then. Good night
« Last Edit: May 09, 2019, 09:56:34 AM by ScarElbow »

BicycleB

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Re: Been day/swing trading my retirement account
« Reply #122 on: May 09, 2019, 10:09:34 AM »
LMAO now I know you're just talking out of spite. No need to continue then. Good night

Spite no, attempt to serve OP's stated needs yes. You have made repeated arguments in this thread contrary to OP's stated request... arguments that imply an investor with sufficient knowledge and skill can get superior results by trading. I don't claim knowledge of trading, but you do. I assume that deciding whether trading is better than rebalanced indexing is a decision that requires at least enough command of detail to notice who you're talking to. Since you haven't demonstrated that command of detail, it is logical to guess that your investing advice is suspect.

ScarElbow

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Re: Been day/swing trading my retirement account
« Reply #123 on: May 09, 2019, 10:34:20 AM »
Come on man. Even in your attempt to clarify your non spiteful way, it is filled with a tone of hate and derision. It's clear. Relax. LOL

BicycleB

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Re: Been day/swing trading my retirement account
« Reply #124 on: May 09, 2019, 10:51:29 AM »
It's not intended that way, but your assertion of hate offends me. Please cease making personal remarks about motivations, aka attacks about my intent.
« Last Edit: May 09, 2019, 10:54:49 AM by BicycleB »

SwitchActiveDWG

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Re: Been day/swing trading my retirement account
« Reply #125 on: May 09, 2019, 11:16:34 AM »
I'm enjoying the conversation.  I can learn from everyone here and respect/appreciate every comment.  Also, anything I say I hope it isn't upsetting anyone -- don't mean to do that.   I don't mind people being hard on me.  I understand their perspective. What I am doing is quite unusual I realize.

...

What you're doing is actually quite common, one of the reasons why so many here have attempted talking you out it.

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Re: Been day/swing trading my retirement account
« Reply #126 on: May 09, 2019, 11:55:23 AM »
So when this threat started I got the feeling this was mostly play money.   If we are talking about your entire savings, I have to say Stop.  Your winning now, but what if you start constantly loosing?   What is your ULTIMATE stop limit? when you hit 0?  It seems to me you don't have one.  (And NO, my stop losses at 1-2% ISN'T a stop limit.  It's a loss limit that could still take everything to ZERO!)

So lets try this again. 
1.  Stop Day trading with everything.   Invest 90% or more in an ETF and forget about it.  That way you win, even if you lose.
2.  If you still want to day trade (for better or worse) Pick an ULTIMATE Stop Limit.   For my Options trading I personally said if I lose my original 2k, I'm done.   I HIGHLY recommend you pick an amount and do same.  It will keep you sane ESPECIALLY when you hit a big losing streak (and you will hit one.  Trust me.  Even Buffet doesn't win every bet he makes... See Kraft Heinz.)
3.  Significant wins, need to be invested so again that you win, even if you lose.   In my options trading I say at somewhere between 3-5k, I then invest most or all of my winnings.   Again pick something stick to it.
4.  Once you hit your Ultimate Stop limit, Stop.   Walk away and don't do it again.  If you MUST, do it again, wait AT LEAST a year and build up your funds from outside sources (ie, not how you usually fund your FIRE.).
5.  Don't be fooled that you will get rich this way.  Some people do.  Some people win the lottery.  It happens, but 99% of people don't. 

If your going this path I want you to be smart about it, so you don't end up doing this FULL time and get fucked.  Many people here are saying that you should not day trade at all, and I agree with their reasons and you should listen to their reasons.   BUT it IS your money, we ultimately can't tell you what to do with it, only suggest.  I suggest you do those 5 Rules I put up, it WILL make you win no matter what happens.
« Last Edit: May 09, 2019, 12:03:31 PM by Stimpy »

dollabillz

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Re: Been day/swing trading my retirement account
« Reply #127 on: May 09, 2019, 12:47:55 PM »
I say go for it.  At 8%/month you'll turn the $5k into like $5 BIllion in 20 years, which sounds pretty good.  Even if it doesnt go perfectly you'll at least have like $1B.

Reminds me of a time a friend of mine was certain he could gain 5-10% a month with a starting chunk of 25k.  I said great! What are planning on doing with the quarter billion dollar chunk of change that you will have after 10 years?   He said "Huh?"  That was about 2 years ago, he is still working, but I hope he is well on his way.

Blueberries

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Re: Been day/swing trading my retirement account
« Reply #128 on: May 10, 2019, 09:29:06 AM »
I debated replying to the inaccuracies in this thread, but I am aware of the power of beliefs and people are not going to change their beliefs based on a random person on the Internet.  But, this idea that 90+% people who try fail is rather disingenuous.  I can't think of any other field in which you base a study on a group of inexperienced individuals and use that as a valid basis of argument. If you want to throw in "but hedge funds...", that argument doesn't hold water because Jennifer isn't a hedge funder.  Hedge funds struggle to beat the market for very valid reasons.

Jennifer - If you are actually interested in trading, believe you can do it, study it, and do it well.  There is no point in asking for opinions on a forum where you already know what the answer will be. 

Edit:  My fault.  My response was specific to trading in general and beating the market, not specific to day trading.  Many members have a belief that you can't beat the market trading and if you do, you're a genius or you've achieved some form of enlightenment only done by a select few.  I was responding to that general mindset throughout this thread, but I should have specified that.
« Last Edit: May 10, 2019, 09:40:05 AM by Blueberries »

bacchi

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Re: Been day/swing trading my retirement account
« Reply #129 on: May 10, 2019, 09:32:39 AM »
I debated replying to the inaccuracies in this thread, but I am aware of the power of beliefs and people are not going to change their beliefs based on a random person on the Internet.  But, this idea that 90+% people who try fail is rather disingenuous.  I can't think of any other field in which you base a study on a group of inexperienced individuals and use that as a valid basis of argument. If you want to throw in "but hedge funds...", that argument doesn't hold water because Jennifer isn't a hedge funder.  Hedge funds struggle to beat the market for very valid reasons.

Are there studies that show the success rate for day traders over, say, a 20 year period?

Blueberries

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Re: Been day/swing trading my retirement account
« Reply #130 on: May 10, 2019, 09:37:18 AM »
I debated replying to the inaccuracies in this thread, but I am aware of the power of beliefs and people are not going to change their beliefs based on a random person on the Internet.  But, this idea that 90+% people who try fail is rather disingenuous.  I can't think of any other field in which you base a study on a group of inexperienced individuals and use that as a valid basis of argument. If you want to throw in "but hedge funds...", that argument doesn't hold water because Jennifer isn't a hedge funder.  Hedge funds struggle to beat the market for very valid reasons.

Are there studies that show the success rate for day traders over, say, a 20 year period?

None that I'm aware of. 

I will add an edit because I realize parts of this discussion were SPECIFIC to day trading and I was speaking about trading in general, not just day trading.  So, my apologies for not being clear.
« Last Edit: May 10, 2019, 09:40:40 AM by Blueberries »

waltworks

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Re: Been day/swing trading my retirement account
« Reply #131 on: May 10, 2019, 09:44:41 AM »
http://faculty.haas.berkeley.edu/odean/papers/Day%20Traders/Day%20Trade%20040330.pdf

"Over the typical six month horizon, using lower range assumptions regarding transaction
costs, less than 20 percent of day traders earn profits net of transaction costs."

They do find that a few people consistently outperform and seem able to do so consistently. It's a very very small number though.

-W

Blueberries

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Re: Been day/swing trading my retirement account
« Reply #132 on: May 10, 2019, 09:48:04 AM »
http://faculty.haas.berkeley.edu/odean/papers/Day%20Traders/Day%20Trade%20040330.pdf

"Over the typical six month horizon, using lower range assumptions regarding transaction
costs, less than 20 percent of day traders earn profits net of transaction costs."

They do find that a few people consistently outperform and seem able to do so consistently. It's a very very small number though.

-W

In a very quick look, it looks like that spanned 4 years, not 20.

waltworks

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Re: Been day/swing trading my retirement account
« Reply #133 on: May 10, 2019, 10:09:12 AM »
I don't think there are any 20 year studies. That would have to have started basically at the same time that "day trading" even became *possible*.

-W

Blueberries

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Re: Been day/swing trading my retirement account
« Reply #134 on: May 10, 2019, 10:34:02 AM »
I don't think there are any 20 year studies. That would have to have started basically at the same time that "day trading" even became *possible*.

-W

Per my response to the PP, I stated I didn't believe there were any day trading studies that spanned 20 years.  Day trading has been a thing since the early 1900's, if not earlier. 

JenniferW

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Re: Been day/swing trading my retirement account
« Reply #135 on: May 10, 2019, 11:43:28 AM »
Thanks for all the replies.  I won't normally do a weekly update, because I don't like to stir up things here in this thread, but I just want to this week because well it's been the stock market's worst week since the big correction in December.   

I moved my Roth IRA to TD Ameritrade just before the first of this month.  My first trade in it was on May 1st.  I've done 8 round trip day/swing trades in it since then.  I am up 5.6% since the 1st of the month.  My current batting average is 63% and my current win/loss ratio is 1.6.   3 of the trades were losses and 5 of them wins.  The average win was 1.81% and the average loss was -1.11%.  My average gain per trade over the past 8 trades (whether winning or losing) is +0.7%.

So again I'm up 5.6% since first of month.  Last I checked, since the first of the month S&P 500 is down 3%.  So I am up 8.6% over the S&P 500 for the past 10 days.  (One of the day trades was today, made 1.1% off SQQQ -- 3x leveraged short/bear of Nasdaq -- saw a lot of momentum in volatility index future (/VX) on my monitor above, saw that Nasdaq was the worst performing index for the day, then went right to SQQQ to confirm it had momentum as well and it did.)

Feeling really confident and I don't see how I can lose my money since I have tight rules and can only lose 1.5% max per trade.  (again average loss was 1.11%).  But I have more wins than losses and when I win, I have bigger average gains vs losses.  The only time I'll call this quits is when my batting average and w/L ratio starts to get bad.  I'll stop and review every single trade along with the comments I made, to see where I can improve. Then try again.   I really don't see how I can lose.  There will be no chance I'll eat into my Roth contributions.  My only fear is a HALT and I won't trade stocks with that high of volatility.

Edit: I'm also concerned about any power outages which could disrupt a critical trade.  I am going to be getting a UPS I think.  One big enough to handle tower pc & a couple monitors.  Another worry is if the computer freezes up and ThinkOrSwim has been.. I need to call their support and work this out because it could cost me up to 1.5% on a particular trade (if I get stopped out).
« Last Edit: May 10, 2019, 12:04:51 PM by JenniferW »

ChpBstrd

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Re: Been day/swing trading my retirement account
« Reply #136 on: May 10, 2019, 12:02:19 PM »
PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE read this quickly. Itís also available as an audiobook.

https://m.barnesandnoble.com/w/fooled-by-randomness-nassim-nicholas-taleb/1100396204

JenniferW

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Re: Been day/swing trading my retirement account
« Reply #137 on: May 10, 2019, 12:08:19 PM »
Well, observable momentum accompanied by increasing volume, such as in the SQQQ trade I did today, was not random.  Especially since there was a strong volatility catalyst along with political and economical.  (Trump's tariffs have done a number on the market this week.)  Btw, SQQQ is a high average volume ETF and it had a lot of momentum when I entered.. I ended up selling at the top of that momentum before it dove like 1/2 %.  Just looked it up on FinViz: average volume for SQQQ is 25m shares per day but it was trading at over 46m today.  I wagered around $8k in SQQQ at a decent entry point today, 4 mins later I sold for 1.1% gain.

But I'll check out the book thanks.  I've read parts of Random Walk Down Wall Street.

Edit: following is screenshot from within ThinkOrSwim showing my buy in point and when I sold.  Do you see the momentum with respect to candles and increasing volume?

« Last Edit: May 10, 2019, 04:18:41 PM by JenniferW »

bacchi

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Re: Been day/swing trading my retirement account
« Reply #138 on: May 10, 2019, 12:15:01 PM »
Feeling really confident and I don't see how I can lose my money since I have tight rules and can only lose 1.5% max per trade.

A stop loss is not a guarantee. A sudden move will blow right through the stop loss and then you'll take what you can get.

JenniferW

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Re: Been day/swing trading my retirement account
« Reply #139 on: May 10, 2019, 12:48:05 PM »
Feeling really confident and I don't see how I can lose my money since I have tight rules and can only lose 1.5% max per trade.

A stop loss is not a guarantee. A sudden move will blow right through the stop loss and then you'll take what you can get.

That's why I like to trade stocks with a relatively high average volume (along with current volume).  The Level II book is more densely filled with buyers the more volume there is.
« Last Edit: May 10, 2019, 12:55:02 PM by JenniferW »

JenniferW

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Re: Been day/swing trading my retirement account
« Reply #140 on: May 10, 2019, 02:07:20 PM »
Day/swing trading in Roth IRA and Individual Account.  Roth 401K has been VTSAX only.
« Last Edit: May 10, 2019, 02:09:32 PM by JenniferW »

frugledoc

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Re: Been day/swing trading my retirement account
« Reply #141 on: May 11, 2019, 01:40:03 AM »
Day/swing trading in Roth IRA and Individual Account.  Roth 401K has been VTSAX only.


At least the amounts are too insignificant to do much harm.  It's more of fun hobby.  Can you really see yourself doing this once you have a 6 figure portfolio?

bacchi

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Re: Been day/swing trading my retirement account
« Reply #142 on: May 11, 2019, 09:35:25 AM »
At least the amounts are too insignificant to do much harm.  It's more of fun hobby.  Can you really see yourself doing this once you have a 6 figure portfolio?

It's highly likely that a lesson will be learned before the assets grow to that amount.

For the record, I day traded futures until 2008. An overnight increase of margin by IB wiped out a 6 figure portfolio in less than a week. I remember watching the markets overnight with a pit in my stomach and then racing to the bank in the morning to wire some money to meet a margin call. Good times.

JenniferW

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Re: Been day/swing trading my retirement account
« Reply #143 on: May 11, 2019, 10:42:32 AM »
Yeah that's why I just want to stick to day trading.  So that way I won't have to worry about overnight events.   In and out of the trade within a few minutes.. (or hours if it keeps going up steadily... adjusting stop loss up as I go).

secondcor521

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Re: Been day/swing trading my retirement account
« Reply #144 on: May 11, 2019, 02:10:06 PM »
Oh, OK, why not.

@JenniferW, it seems by your presentation here that you want to take a scientific approach to your active trading.  You're keeping careful records, analyzing them for improvement, reading what others have done and evaluated the pros and cons.  I think that is all good stuff.

However, I think there is a missing piece to being scientific about what you are doing.  I heard once that true science has to be falsifiable - there must exist a set of facts or an experimental result which would disprove the theory.  You can read more about falsifiability here:  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falsifiability.

I would encourage you to think carefully about what results from your trading would distinguish between the following two theories:

1.  @JenniferW is a gifted trader who will outperform the indexes over long periods of time on an after-tax, risk-adjusted basis.
2.  @JenniferW is a gambler who happened to outperform over a very short period through sheer luck but will eventually underperform due to the inexorable pull of taxes, investing errors, and trading costs.

To me, the following quote seems to indicate that you have decided that success through your kind of trading is Scientifically True, and that any result indicating differently is simply a matter of needing to learn more or practice more.  I think this is a very dangerous situation for you to be in.  I think the results will eventually turn against you, and without a mental path to conclude that maybe day traders don't succeed, you'll stick to the idea long enough to lose more than you've gained thus far.

If my batting average or w/l ratio starts dropping, it will only cause me to analyze things more, re-reading my comments on the trades, to see what I'm doing wrong and how I can improve.

To put it another way, if you're not being scientific about it, what is keeping your trading from being a religion or a gambling addiction?

OneCoolCat

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Re: Been day/swing trading my retirement account
« Reply #145 on: May 11, 2019, 03:01:22 PM »
I've been thinking a recession is around the corner for 4 years now and I've been very wrong for 4 years.  A long bull market doesn't mean there will be a bear market around the corner.  I've lost a good bit of money by not investing a rolled over IRA for a 6-months because I was waiting for a bears.  Big mistake.  I missed out on 10% gains before I finally came around to investing it.  Glad I didn't go with my gut because the S&P Index fund thats its been in is substantially up.  From now on, I just set it and forget it.

I also dabbled with a small amount of money in Robinhood.  Admittedly, I was not very good at pick stocks.  I picked mostly a bunch of losers like Sunpower (still love the company but the stock sucked) and Walter Investment (tried catching a falling knife).  Luckily I also invested heavily in Activision-Blizzard which made up for the losses but I was still well-below the S&P's index.  I sold it all and put the money in a brokerage account.  I'm glad I did because ATVI is down alot since and I would probably still be holding it had I not gotten out of stocks.

Perhaps you have a better sense at this.  Some people can make a living day trading  but I wouldn't put all my eggs in one basket.  The decision is easier for me than it is for you (because I failed everytime I tried to time or beat the market).

JenniferW

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Re: Been day/swing trading my retirement account
« Reply #146 on: May 11, 2019, 10:42:26 PM »
I would encourage you to think carefully about what results from your trading would distinguish between the following two theories:

1.  @JenniferW is a gifted trader who will outperform the indexes over long periods of time on an after-tax, risk-adjusted basis.
2.  @JenniferW is a gambler who happened to outperform over a very short period through sheer luck but will eventually underperform due to the inexorable pull of taxes, investing errors, and trading costs.

Thanks for your reply.  I really appreciate it.

Regarding taxes, I've thought about it.  I am trading in three accounts.  Roth IRA, Roth Solo 401k and Individual.  Each will be funded about equally -- $500 each per month. 

As far as Roth IRA and Roth Solo 401k there are zero tax consequences day trading in them. All gains in those accounts are not subject to any taxes whatsoever, not even on withdrawal since they were funded by after-tax dollars.

I have given thought to short term taxes versus long term taxes in my individual account yes.  But for right now, since I am relatively low income and low tax bracket I can make around $10k of passive income from trading, without paying much taxes on it at all. 

When all the account balances start increasing, at some point it will be too much to day trade with and I'll have to go long (e.g. VTI/BND).  The first account I'll be going long in will definitely be the individual account subject to taxes.  Hopefully by the time I get any real money in the individual account, a correction will have already occurred, so I can go long during a long bear trough.
« Last Edit: May 11, 2019, 10:53:46 PM by JenniferW »

JenniferW

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Re: Been day/swing trading my retirement account
« Reply #147 on: May 11, 2019, 11:24:50 PM »
I've been thinking a recession is around the corner for 4 years now and I've been very wrong for 4 years.  A long bull market doesn't mean there will be a bear market around the corner.  I've lost a good bit of money by not investing a rolled over IRA for a 6-months because I was waiting for a bears.  Big mistake.  I missed out on 10% gains before I finally came around to investing it.  Glad I didn't go with my gut because the S&P Index fund thats its been in is substantially up.  From now on, I just set it and forget it.

Thank you OneCoolCat for your reply!  Yeah I have no idea how long the bull market will go on.  I just have this great fear right now.

Also recently, as of yesterday, I learned about stock buybacks and how companies with their new tax break they received from Trump are using it to buyback their stocks to reduce number of outstanding shares and artificially inflate the earnings per share and growth.  CEO's get bonuses with stock options and benefit from this. This is what companies did back before the crash of 1929 -- buybacks; I read it was part of the big problem with the crash.  In fact it was so problematic that the SEC deemed the practice illegal in 1934.  Interestingly Joseph Kennedy was the chairmen of the SEC at this time.  It wasn't until 1982 that stock buybacks were made legal again by Reagan.  And after that there was the 1987 crash, the tech bubble burst, the 2008 financial crisis and now what appears to be a gigantic bubble, with more money then ever being put into buybacks due to the tax breaks the companies received by Trump.

Now I'm not smart enough to know if this is a conspiracy theory or not, but after watching Robert Reich video about the exact subject, I now believe it is a valid concern.  Professor Reich was the Secretary of Labor for Clinton and served in the administration of Ford and Carter as well.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5RiRUJuvEgI  (He just made this video two months ago.)

I watched a terrifying video by Ted Bauman who says he thinks this might happen as soon as August 1st, in a secret SEC meeting. He says they will make stock buybacks illegal again, and the stock market will crash because the only real investors in the market this year were corporations due to stock buybacks from the tax cut Trump gave them.  I don't really trust this source of info though because it was a pitch for a $47/year subscription to The Bauman Letter (along with other resources like a book etc.).  But he does say similar things to what Robert Reich was saying in the video above.  Here is link to the Bauman pitch: https://banyanhill.com/exclusives/70-stock-market-crash-to-strike-august-1-economist-warns/
 
If you google "stock buybacks illegal" then you can read many articles about it, e.g:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4254319-make-stock-buybacks-illegal
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/23/opinion/ban-stock-buybacks.html

Perhaps the market would of crashed already if Trump hadn't given the tax break and allowed companies to buy back so much, reducing outstanding shares, thereby increasing/sustaining EPS ??
« Last Edit: May 11, 2019, 11:44:35 PM by JenniferW »

secondcor521

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Re: Been day/swing trading my retirement account
« Reply #148 on: May 12, 2019, 12:45:15 AM »
I would encourage you to think carefully about what results from your trading would distinguish between the following two theories:

1.  @JenniferW is a gifted trader who will outperform the indexes over long periods of time on an after-tax, risk-adjusted basis.
2.  @JenniferW is a gambler who happened to outperform over a very short period through sheer luck but will eventually underperform due to the inexorable pull of taxes, investing errors, and trading costs.

Thanks for your reply.  I really appreciate it.

Regarding taxes, I've thought about it.  I am trading in three accounts.  Roth IRA, Roth Solo 401k and Individual.  Each will be funded about equally -- $500 each per month. 

As far as Roth IRA and Roth Solo 401k there are zero tax consequences day trading in them. All gains in those accounts are not subject to any taxes whatsoever, not even on withdrawal since they were funded by after-tax dollars.

I have given thought to short term taxes versus long term taxes in my individual account yes.  But for right now, since I am relatively low income and low tax bracket I can make around $10k of passive income from trading, without paying much taxes on it at all. 

When all the account balances start increasing, at some point it will be too much to day trade with and I'll have to go long (e.g. VTI/BND).  The first account I'll be going long in will definitely be the individual account subject to taxes.  Hopefully by the time I get any real money in the individual account, a correction will have already occurred, so I can go long during a long bear trough.

Thank you for your reply.  I appreciate it.  :-)

I think you missed my main point, so I'll try to be as succinct and focused as possible:

What would have to happen for you to believe that your form of day trading doesn't work?

JenniferW

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Re: Been day/swing trading my retirement account
« Reply #149 on: May 12, 2019, 03:02:50 AM »
What would have to happen for you to believe that your form of day trading doesn't work?

If my win loss/ratio goes below 50% and my W/L ratio goes below 1.25. I keep a running total.

The more trades I do the more time it takes to move those ratios in one direction or the other.  I'll know well beforehand if I keep heading in the wrong direction.  If trade after trade I keep creeping closer and closer to 50% batting average and 1.25 W/L ratio, I'll stop trading and re-asses, make corrections, and keep going.  Once I reach those numbers I'll quit, keep my money in cash, wait for the recession and just buy VTI.

However, I believe my batting average and w/l ratio will stay about the same as they are now or improve.  I don't believe day trading (if done right) is gambling but a performance activity based on probable outcomes.  You get the set the rules unlike a casino which sets their own rules rigged against you.  You enter at opportune times based on patterns, volume, and other catalysts -- being very patient on the sidelines until what you believe might be the exact right moment.  You make a quite educated guess, and if you are wrong, you cut your losses quickly.  Risk management is key and you have to be unemotional and without ego.  e.g you bet on something you've carefully studied having a strong chance it could go up 2-5+% but cut your losses at say 1-2% if it doesn't.
« Last Edit: May 12, 2019, 03:15:49 AM by JenniferW »