Reality checking the pandemic, this is a good source of graphs:
https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/03/16/816707182/map-tracking-the-spread-of-the-coronavirus-in-the-u-s?fbclid=IwAR0mVScVLilynzWwxsTqcFvYh-PAvvCLzcGSWzQ3vBi5NFZr0ApW2a5PSSsTo date, only about 6% of the U.S. population has been infected (if you use the best estimate of mild and asymptomatic cases from surveillance studies, which estimate ten times as many infections as we are currently counting. 20 million divided by 328 million = 6%). That leaves the vast majority of our population still susceptible to the virus. Political resistance to simple measures like mask wearing (which reduces transmission by 85%) will keep the pandemic going, along with opening of high risk venues like bars.
It’s possible we might see a decline by end of summer as people’s Vitamin D levels reach an annual peak, but if that happens, we will undoubtedly see a second wave in the winter.
Most states currently have too many cases for contact tracing to control outbreaks - only low risk highly rural states like Montana have a good chance at control by contact tracing , although I have no idea if they are actually doing that.
The bigger problem that will come to the fore soon is ICU beds running out. See, normally the average ICU patient is in the ICU for just a very few days, then usually either expires or is bumped down to a lower intensity floor. But COVID patients tend to stay in the ICU for a much longer time. This accumulation of ICU patients is starting to strain the system even in areas that are not super hot.
For instance - I’m in San Diego . The outbreak here has had a nicely flattened curve, due to an early lockdown and mandatory masks. We have had a steady number of new cases for the past two months, averaging about 150 per day. Not great, but not increasing.
But at a doctors visit last week, my boyfriends doctor shared what was happening in their hospital system (one of four big systems in town who provide hospital care). Due to the accumulation of ICU patients, hospitals in south county had filled their ICUs and were overflowing to the big hospital in north county. Then that ICU filled up and they had to start admitting them to the smaller hospital nearby that they had been attempting to keep Covid free. This is without any kind of new surge.
The IHME Covid projections let you look at ICU beds. California is projected to exceed capacity in September. Arizona will exceed capacity by the beginning of July. Basically, we will go into the winter flu season (and probable second wave of Covid) with our ICUs already full.
The answer is not to simply build more ICU beds - you must have doctors, nurses and equipment suitable to treating these ICU patients.
So: likely scenario: continued cases through summer, second peak in winter, ICUs beyond capacity, risks of second shutdowns in various places.
Potential modifying factors : if we come up with a treatment which can be used to treat outpatient cases and keep them from getting bad enough to need hospitalization, or if we bring everybody’s vitamin D levels up and this reduces the percentage of severe cases.
Or, less likely, the virus could mutate to become less serious.
The virus could also mutate to become more serious, as happened with the 1918 flu pandemic.
I’m not holding my breath for the vaccine, there’s a real risk of a serious complication called immune enhancement with vaccines for viruses in this category, and I don’t believe January would be long enough to get safety data to rule that out (google the roll out of dengue vaccine in the Philippines ).
Bottom line - the virus is still here, likely to surge sooner or later in this year, and economic disruption will occur even if more lockdowns don’t occur. The market may or may not reflect that.