Someone let Thorstache write an article for Buzzfeed?
-W
I limit my news intake pretty strictly, but this piece on Here and Now (featuring Laurie Garrett, who won the Pulitzer for her work chronicling the Ebola outbreak in Zaire) did a nice job explaining what various models and researchers predict about virus progression and the economy, depending on the choices we make.
https://www.wbur.org/hereandnow/2020/06/16/coronavirus-pandemic-us
Timing isn't mentioned, but "According to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, U.S. GDP could decline to -8.5% if there is a second wave" (which is not what we're having now; we're still in the first wave). That GDP number, insofar as it's used as a recession measure, would be a pretty extraordinary; in late 2008 it was -6.2%.
Almost impossibly we’re at about the same point we were in December 2019... before anyone had heard of the Corona Virus and most everyone was predicting a financially Steller 2020. Oops.
While i don't believe that Buzzfeed is an authoritative source for financial predictions (no one is), i am genuinely worried about the prospects of another crash either soon due to coronavirus or after the election due to coronavirus and general sluggishness of the economy (no matter who wins).
My question is: Should i pull out of the stock market temporarily with the plan of getting back in at a particular date in the future, or is that just another attempt to time the market?
That is just another attempt to time the market
If you NEED the money in the next 24 months or so, by all means pull that money out. But if this is long term, keep it invested.
My question is: Should i pull out of the stock market temporarily with the plan of getting back in at a particular date in the future, or is that just another attempt to time the market?
Almost impossibly we’re at about the same point we were in December 2019... before anyone had heard of the Corona Virus and most everyone was predicting a financially Steller 2020. Oops.
Were "most everyone" predicting a financially stellar 2020? Genuine question. In my circles, they were predicting major slow downs in late 2019 and into 2020. My employer laid off 2000 people in anticipation of a significant drop in demand. Q4 2019 was their worst quarter since 2009 as far as sales/revenue are concerned.
The U.S. economy begins the year 2020 in a good place. The unemployment rate is at a 50-year low, inflation is close to our 2 percent objective, gross domestic product growth is solid, and the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) baseline outlook is for a continuation of this performance in 2020.... The Committee judges that the current stance of monetary policy is appropriate to support sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee’s symmetric 2 percent objective
Global economic growth is forecast to edge up to 2.5% in 2020 as investment and trade gradually recover from last year’s significant weakness
Forecast-wise, I’m seeing closer to 3% real GDP growth than 2% [in 2020]. I’m seeing at least 32,000 on the Dow
US Expansion expected to continue through 2020 - WSJ Survey finds(note: this was the summary conclusion of a panel of 57 economists).
Look... no one has a clue what the F is going to happen next week or next month or in August. There was a cantankerous thread here several weeks ago that got locked, but the basic premise was that, after an absurdly good April the markets were absolutely going to crash very soon, as in within the next few days or maybe a week... and it hasn’t happened. Yet.
My favorite thing about the market crash predictions is that unless you're VERY close to FIRE, a market crash is GOOD for you, for the obvious reason that it lets you accumulate shares cheaper/quicker.
I mean, a 99% drop in the stock market would wipe out 2/3 of my net worth. But with the remaining bonds/e-fund/etc, I could buy easily triple or quadruple the shares I have now and be FIRE on the dividends alone (of course assuming the economy was still functioning in some way in my outlandish scenario).
If your goal is FIRE and you're not there yet, you should be rooting for the market to drop or at most stagnate.
-W
According to this Buzzfeed article [...]
[...] may cause a real economic collapse.
I'm confident if you scour the forum you will find those prediction threads for every month since the forum's inception. People are constantly predicting the market is going to crash.
everytime I see that list it makes me smile @RWD
HAHA, glad someone has already done the work in compiling that. Great job.Thanks! I actually got a PM today asking when I would be updating the list again. I find it helpful to look at the long term picture and see how many people have been wrong in the past when considering the predictions of the present. And even when the predictions of crashes are correct there is still the long term upward trend which holds.
everytime I see that list it makes me smile @RWDHAHA, glad someone has already done the work in compiling that. Great job.Thanks! I actually got a PM today asking when I would be updating the list again. I find it helpful to look at the long term picture and see how many people have been wrong in the past when considering the predictions of the present. And even when the predictions of crashes are correct there is still the long term upward trend which holds.
According to this Buzzfeed.... They're predicting....Buzzfeed is a radical left-wing source. By the way, so are all of the other media outlets that have so-called "financial news". Site like Yahoo Finance and Market Watch all have armies of Trump haters who are constantly peddling negative news.
According to this Buzzfeed.... They're predicting....Buzzfeed is a radical left-wing source. By the way, so are all of the other media outlets that have so-called "financial news". Site like Yahoo Finance and Market Watch all have armies of Trump haters who are constantly peddling negative news.
https://youtu.be/ICXR3OnUE6E?t=147
According to this Buzzfeed.... They're predicting....Buzzfeed is a radical left-wing source. By the way, so are all of the other media outlets that have so-called "financial news". Site like Yahoo Finance and Market Watch all have armies of Trump haters who are constantly peddling negative news.
https://youtu.be/ICXR3OnUE6E?t=147
Radical left-wing source? Hmmm... I'm going to say no. Left of center for sure, but not "radical left-wing" either.
Mostly it's a collection of freelance writers with pretty lose oversight, as are many online news sources (Marketwatch is another).
What news sources does that leave you with?According to this Buzzfeed.... They're predicting....Buzzfeed is a radical left-wing source. By the way, so are all of the other media outlets that have so-called "financial news". Site like Yahoo Finance and Market Watch all have armies of Trump haters who are constantly peddling negative news.
https://youtu.be/ICXR3OnUE6E?t=147
That's the definition of market timing.
My question is: Should i pull out of the stock market temporarily with the plan of getting back in at a particular date in the future, or is that just another attempt to time the market?
That's the definition of market timing.
My question is: Should i pull out of the stock market temporarily with the plan of getting back in at a particular date in the future, or is that just another attempt to time the market?
LOL at taking anything on Buzzfeed seriously.I'm laughing at seriously and radical left wing.
I limit my news intake pretty strictly, but this piece on Here and Now (featuring Laurie Garrett, who won the Pulitzer for her work chronicling the Ebola outbreak in Zaire) did a nice job explaining what various models and researchers predict about virus progression and the economy, depending on the choices we make.
https://www.wbur.org/hereandnow/2020/06/16/coronavirus-pandemic-us
Timing isn't mentioned, but "According to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, U.S. GDP could decline to -8.5% if there is a second wave" (which is not what we're having now; we're still in the first wave). That GDP number, insofar as it's used as a recession measure, would be a pretty extraordinary; in late 2008 it was -6.2%.
Does the article also mention the amount of error our ‘researchers and models’ had on their predictions of the virus in America thus far? We should all be dead by now if they were right in March.
I’m inclined to not believe them.
That's the definition of market timing.
My question is: Should i pull out of the stock market temporarily with the plan of getting back in at a particular date in the future, or is that just another attempt to time the market?
I'm not saying this isn't a kind of market timing, but my understanding of classic market timing is trying to sell high and buy low. What i am suggesting is rebalancing to cash at a particular date (not aiming for highest value) with the objective of holding out of the market during a period of heightened uncertainty. Then reentering at a fixed date in the future, rather than monitoring the market to try to maximize the low point.
But i've learned the folly of my thinking, so i'm just going to stay in. Viva capitalism!
I post these because I really enjoy the *rational* discussion that follows, you folks keep me sane some days!
I post these because I really enjoy the *rational* discussion that follows, you folks keep me sane some days!
FWIW - we could have the same discussion without promoting clickbait in the process. Just saying....
That's the definition of market timing.
My question is: Should i pull out of the stock market temporarily with the plan of getting back in at a particular date in the future, or is that just another attempt to time the market?
I'm not saying this isn't a kind of market timing, but my understanding of classic market timing is trying to sell high and buy low. What i am suggesting is rebalancing to cash at a particular date (not aiming for highest value) with the objective of holding out of the market during a period of heightened uncertainty. Then reentering at a fixed date in the future, rather than monitoring the market to try to maximize the low point.
But i've learned the folly of my thinking, so i'm just going to stay in. Viva capitalism!
August may or may not be a cliff depending on what we get in the next stimulus.
Extended enhanced unemployment benefits?
More stimulus payments directly to individuals?
More small business payroll loans?
Aid to state & local governments?
A payroll tax holiday?
You are likely to see some combination of the above by the end of July. That doesn't mean we are fully protected from another downturn this calendar year, but nobody knows nothin'.
According to this Buzzfeed article: https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/tomgara/economy-recession-coronavirus
They're predicting that the combination of stimulus money running out, eviction bans being lifted and deferred payments (Mortgage, student debt, rent) coming due may cause a real economic collapse.
I post these because I really enjoy the *rational* discussion that follows, you folks keep me sane some days!
August may or may not be a cliff depending on what we get in the next stimulus.
Extended enhanced unemployment benefits?
More stimulus payments directly to individuals?
More small business payroll loans?
Aid to state & local governments?
A payroll tax holiday?
You are likely to see some combination of the above by the end of July. That doesn't mean we are fully protected from another downturn this calendar year, but nobody knows nothin'.
Congress is in session the last 2 weeks of July and then is gone until mid September.*The really crappy economic data won’t hit till August. So my bet is on nothing till late September.
*( we wouldn’t want our dear kakistocrats to have to work in August.)
Depending on how polls are going, Republicans may conclude that Trump is likely to lose anyway and that passing any stimulus won't save him, but will make Biden look more successful.
I'm not paying attention to any polls. Remember how badly they failed in the last election? Why would folks trust them again?Polls didn't "fail" during the last election. That horse has been beaten extensively. Most were within the margin of error, which is exactly what one should expect. Trump lost the popular vote as predicted, and walked the narrowest of paths among the battleground states, all of which were predicted to be close.
Also, while new Covid cases are spiking, deaths are not. I'm wondering if we're seeing an increase in testing, and the actual number of cases has not really changed all that much.
August may or may not be a cliff depending on what we get in the next stimulus.
Extended enhanced unemployment benefits?
More stimulus payments directly to individuals?
More small business payroll loans?
Aid to state & local governments?
A payroll tax holiday?
You are likely to see some combination of the above by the end of July. That doesn't mean we are fully protected from another downturn this calendar year, but nobody knows nothin'.
Congress is in session the last 2 weeks of July and then is gone until mid September.*The really crappy economic data won’t hit till August. So my bet is on nothing till late September.
*( we wouldn’t want our dear kakistocrats to have to work in August.)
What do they think this is, Italy?
Bit unfortunate there's all this helicopter money propping everything and anything up to the detriment of our future taxpaying selves.
Bit unfortunate there's all this helicopter money propping everything and anything up to the detriment of our future taxpaying selves.
What taxes? It’s not going to be paid back.
Bit unfortunate there's all this helicopter money propping everything and anything up to the detriment of our future taxpaying selves.
What taxes? It’s not going to be paid back.
Inflation itself is a tax. In reality, we should be benefiting from deflation as businesses tank and the relative value of money for us industrious savers increases.
I haven't been paying attention to the news. Did it all implode in August?
I haven't been paying attention to the news. Did it all implode in August?
I haven't been paying attention to the news. Did it all implode in August?
Dammit. Now we need to start a new thread!
...
My question is: Should i pull out of the stock market temporarily with the plan of getting back in at a particular date in the future, or is that just another attempt to time the market?
That is just another attempt to time the market
...
I'm not saying, of course, that the markets couldn't have gone down, and I'm certainly not saying that I was smart enough to know that they wouldn't. That's really the essence of long-term investing: none of us is smart enough to predict the short-term.