Author Topic: Anyone recommend a Motley fool subscription?  (Read 229520 times)

Scandium

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Re: Anyone recommend a Motley fool subscription?
« Reply #50 on: August 05, 2015, 03:03:42 PM »
I love how we've now gone full circle and index funds are now the "conventional wisdom" that should be questioned1 Bogle must be proud!

Contrary to your statement, I don't use index funds because I'm lazy and don't want to bother analyzing stocks. I do it because I believe that even if I did spend that time I would be worse off.

PaulMaxime

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Re: Anyone recommend a Motley fool subscription?
« Reply #51 on: August 05, 2015, 04:10:32 PM »
Yeah, see what I did there....

That's cool. I obviously feel differently and have personal evidence that the time and effort can be worthwhile.

CorpRaider

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Re: Anyone recommend a Motley fool subscription?
« Reply #52 on: August 06, 2015, 08:16:34 PM »
Would be better to start with library subscription to value line and morningstar.

PaulMaxime

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Re: Anyone recommend a Motley fool subscription?
« Reply #53 on: August 06, 2015, 09:58:01 PM »
Would be better to start with library subscription to value line and morningstar.

I've heard good things about value line. Have you used it?

KBecks2

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Re: Anyone recommend a Motley fool subscription?
« Reply #54 on: August 10, 2015, 11:18:51 AM »


But I have no interest in listen to all that now. If you hear of just one stock they mention that will go 10x in the next few years could you post it here and we'll have a record of it? I'll quote the post so you can't edit it;)

Why is your criteria 10x in the next few years?  That is extremely aggressive.  Pick a more reasonable target and maybe we'll play.  What do you expect your index funds to do in the next 3 years?

Scandium

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Re: Anyone recommend a Motley fool subscription?
« Reply #55 on: August 10, 2015, 11:30:45 AM »


But I have no interest in listen to all that now. If you hear of just one stock they mention that will go 10x in the next few years could you post it here and we'll have a record of it? I'll quote the post so you can't edit it;)

Why is your criteria 10x in the next few years?  That is extremely aggressive.  Pick a more reasonable target and maybe we'll play.  What do you expect your index funds to do in the next 3 years?

well:
1) Because the MF guy brag about his 100x return on amazon, I would think "just" 10x would be a step down!
2) Because if I'm going from diversification of 10,000 stocks to 1 stock, I'd want to much better return. Outperforming by 1-2% per year is not enough for me for all that extra risk.

But ok, I'll make it easier; give me one stock that will do 5x in the next 5 years. Write it down here, I'll quote the post and we can go back and check in 5 years. Easy-peasy.

KBecks2

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Re: Anyone recommend a Motley fool subscription?
« Reply #56 on: August 10, 2015, 11:39:12 AM »
That's unrealistic.  A one stock portfolio is not investing, it is gambling.  It has a massive disadvantage because there is no diversity.  No one would ever recommend a one stock portfolio.

If you have a portfolio of stocks, and one of them is a star, then in retrospect you can look back and say, what a great performance.

I think it would be reasonable to offer you a handful of stocks, and then we can look back at those in a few years.  You know that makes the challenge more reasonable AND more realistic for what an individual investor really does.   


Scandium

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Re: Anyone recommend a Motley fool subscription?
« Reply #57 on: August 10, 2015, 11:51:22 AM »
That's unrealistic.  A one stock portfolio is not investing, it is gambling.  It has a massive disadvantage because there is no diversity.  No one would ever recommend a one stock portfolio.

If you have a portfolio of stocks, and one of them is a star, then in retrospect you can look back and say, what a great performance.

I think it would be reasonable to offer you a handful of stocks, and then we can look back at those in a few years.  You know that makes the challenge more reasonable AND more realistic for what an individual investor really does.

How is that unrealistic? I MF is selling a service that will tell you stocks that will outperform then it shouldn't matter whether it's one or eight of them. The guy said he predicted amazon would grow insanely, give me just one other stock that will do the same in the next 5, or even 10, years. I'd think this would be piece of cake??

I didn't think anyone would take up this stupid "challenge" so didn't bother to lay out the rules. But I guess now we'd have to define what it is MF is selling. I'm to lazy to check their site myself though. But it it:
- Stocks that will outperform if you buy any one of them?
Or
- Portfolio of stocks that will outperform if you buy all of them. How often do you buy, immediately? In what weighting? Do you rebalance? When do you sell?

PaulMaxime

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Re: Anyone recommend a Motley fool subscription?
« Reply #58 on: August 10, 2015, 01:14:23 PM »
Hey Scanduim. Are you being deliberately obtuse here?

Kbecks2 and I are stating that a properly constructed, diversified stock portfolio can outperform the indices.

We both have done so ourselves. You would probably say that was random chance, we say otherwise.

We've both paid the Motley Fool for advice. We never said that they were all knowing or all seeing. All we are saying is that we've been able to tip the odds in our favor by using their service, that they have a public track record of outperformance.

In addition, I maintain that the studies that show active investing underperforming indexing are obvious, and assume constraints that don't necessarily apply to the individual investor. The biggest component of this is behavior, but there are lots of other factors that these studies ignore, by their nature.

Why all the screed and anger?


Scandium

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Re: Anyone recommend a Motley fool subscription?
« Reply #59 on: August 10, 2015, 01:57:31 PM »
I'm not particularly angry, and I didn't think I did any screeding. But ok.
The "studies showing underperformance don't apply to me" has been argued here a lot, and I really have no interest in revisiting it.

So it's option 2 then. You need to buy the whole portfolio they're selling. Then I'm curious about my other questions. How does it work? Do they recommend one stock a month and you have to buy that? Do you buy each to maintain equal weight? And do you rebalance as they go up/down? Otherwise it sounds like this would make you buy more and more (in $) each time as the older stocks in your portfolio are going up.

KBecks2

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Re: Anyone recommend a Motley fool subscription?
« Reply #60 on: August 11, 2015, 05:27:38 AM »
Hi Scandium,

The Motley Fool can work any way you want it to, and they have multiple services to choose from.  Most services are recommendation services, meaning that they will suggest stocks, and then it is up to you to review and decide if you are interested and want to purchase shares of those companies. (It is easy to make mistakes with those recommendations, and some of those recs turn out to be dogs)  If you pay more for a portfolio service, there will be specific recommendations on what to own, but of course, these are their suggestions.  I belong to a portfolio service, and I choose to only buy about half of what is suggested, I buy the ones I like and that I understand the most. 

There are no guarantees, of course!!  The benefits I appreciate are hanging out with smart people who are into stock investing.  Like I said, check out Saul's board, for free!  He is excellent at picking out high growth companies. (High growth is not the only way I invest, but he's smart and very fun to hang with, and I'm going with a couple of his favorites as a part of my port, and those companies are doing great!)    It is very possible to lose money, and anyone who invests *will* make mistakes.  Getting burned is how you learn (if you are smart enough to learn).   As Paul said, many times the problem is you and your behavior and your emotions.

Successful stock investing takes time and interest.  Many people view it as a game, as much fun to build wealth as it is to play a video game.  And all investing takes work and practice.  Real estate investors can build wealth or they can also lose. 

So, it's not appropriate to say - show me the magic pill, because there isn't one!  But there are plenty of successful, profitable companies that are growing and have very interesting businesses that you might want to benefit from partial ownership of.

I could beat the S&P 500 if I pick a few stocks that are in the top half of the companies in that cohort, and if I don't get stupid with trading.  I enjoy the learning and the process.  Putting your investments on autopilot is fine too.  Whatever works!
« Last Edit: August 11, 2015, 05:29:40 AM by KBecks2 »

PaulMaxime

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Re: Anyone recommend a Motley fool subscription?
« Reply #61 on: August 11, 2015, 09:45:34 AM »
I'm not particularly angry, and I didn't think I did any screeding. But ok.
The "studies showing underperformance don't apply to me" has been argued here a lot, and I really have no interest in revisiting it.

So it's option 2 then. You need to buy the whole portfolio they're selling. Then I'm curious about my other questions. How does it work? Do they recommend one stock a month and you have to buy that? Do you buy each to maintain equal weight? And do you rebalance as they go up/down? Otherwise it sounds like this would make you buy more and more (in $) each time as the older stocks in your portfolio are going up.

I mostly follow a couple of their portfolio services that give specific recommendations of when to buy and sell and provide allocation advice. One service, Pro, is conservative and steady. They buy companies that have long track records of growth and large business moats. Companies like Apple and Master Card and also smaller more high-growth businesses. They also do some more "sophisticated" strategies like hedging and shorting and options for income, which you can take or leave, but I find fascinating and profitable.

My total "expense ratio" for my membership is about 0.1% which is pretty good in my mind considering how well it's done and also the education I got. Hopefully over time that will drop, since I continue to profit from my investments and the fees are flat, not tied to my account balance or anything.

These guys are long term, business focused investors. There's no get rich quick or trading on news or momentum here. They believe in buying businesses, not "names" or whatever.

I like the service. Your mileage may vary...

milesdividendmd

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Re: Anyone recommend a Motley fool subscription?
« Reply #62 on: August 11, 2015, 05:57:42 PM »
The evidence on stock picking newsletters could not be clearer.  They perform worse than random. And this is before you even count the increased expense ratio that most subscribers don't include when it comes to the cost of the subscription and the increased trading costs....

as an example here is an article on the motley fool from last october,:

http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424127887323997004578642030536573020

and here is the subsequent performance of their touted stock picks:  (4 picks underperform the S and P and 2 out perform.)

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?HAL,YHOO,ALNY,CSTE,LBTYA,URBN,SPY&p=6&O=111000

Why would you pay more for underperformance?

PaulMaxime

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Re: Anyone recommend a Motley fool subscription?
« Reply #63 on: August 11, 2015, 08:20:08 PM »
I wouldn't. I'm not underperforming. If I did I would go back to indexing in a minute.

DavidAnnArbor

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Re: Anyone recommend a Motley fool subscription?
« Reply #64 on: August 14, 2015, 10:05:15 AM »
I've been outperforming for too long to go back to indexing.
I'm not giving you a stock pick.
I don't know what's going to go up 10X in the future. That's why you do your research and spread your bets.
I like learning about companies and investing.
In reality, most of the reason that people do poorly in investing is their behavior - poor timing, panic selling, chasing performance, etc.
This is what company research means to me:
Financial statements of companies are comprised of dense technical language: confusing and opaque. For example, the pension accounting of a financial statement is in of itself a whole subset of accounting terms. Also, the company chiefs will play around with expenses to game the financial reports to make it look like the company started off badly and improved greatly. Shares are bought back to increase the earnings per share - and does higher e.p.s. affect the executive compensation?

Also, as Scandium pointed out there's no way to time buying a stock cause you can't predict the future. So "poor timing" is really just bad luck of a well-intentioned stock investor who tried to do "company research."

PaulMaxime

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Re: Anyone recommend a Motley fool subscription?
« Reply #65 on: August 16, 2015, 01:43:34 AM »
I've been outperforming for too long to go back to indexing.
I'm not giving you a stock pick.
I don't know what's going to go up 10X in the future. That's why you do your research and spread your bets.
I like learning about companies and investing.
In reality, most of the reason that people do poorly in investing is their behavior - poor timing, panic selling, chasing performance, etc.
This is what company research means to me:
Financial statements of companies are comprised of dense technical language: confusing and opaque. For example, the pension accounting of a financial statement is in of itself a whole subset of accounting terms. Also, the company chiefs will play around with expenses to game the financial reports to make it look like the company started off badly and improved greatly. Shares are bought back to increase the earnings per share - and does higher e.p.s. affect the executive compensation?

Also, as Scandium pointed out there's no way to time buying a stock cause you can't predict the future. So "poor timing" is really just bad luck of a well-intentioned stock investor who tried to do "company research."

Well, if you are investing at all, you are trying to predict the future, or at least being optimistic about it

Retire-Canada

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Re: Anyone recommend a Motley fool subscription?
« Reply #66 on: August 16, 2015, 09:24:18 AM »
I posted a study I found interesting to social media recently. It followed ~2000 families to generate its results which were peer reviewed.

A friend who disagreed with the results posted - "That study must be wrong. I went through the same thing and felt X about it."

My reply was that rebutting a scientific study with an anecdote is like bringing a butter knife to a chainsaw fight.

To be fair I can sympathize that it's hard to penetrate the mists of survivor bias. It's a lot easier to pat one's self on the back and  think "I'm freaking awesome!"

HowMuchCanAKoalaBear

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Re: Anyone recommend a Motley fool subscription?
« Reply #67 on: September 03, 2015, 09:30:28 PM »
No not recommended. They started out with Motley fool stock picking newsletter , then they added a  dividend stock picking newsletter then came the individual Motley fool pro when to buy and sell newsletter $2500 p.a.  for that one .Now their latest number 4 in the series a Motley fool million dollar portfolio they haven't said how much this one will cost yet.

I get these in my email every day, half price last chance so get in now. Lowest price ever , last chance. Closing at midnight tonight. :)

They make their money through selling stock picks to the gullible , apparently their stock picks are averaging 50% above the market its a wonder they aren't in the Bahamas on a sailboat and retired not still flogging newsletters.

HowMuchCanAKoalaBear

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Re: Anyone recommend a Motley fool subscription?
« Reply #68 on: September 09, 2015, 08:33:27 PM »
I've had trial newsletters before (never signed up for them) where they advise on stock picks, normally they have some dividend ,some growth stocks and some small caps maybe some hybrids  and a  model portfolio included.

Not Motley fool,  these guys have been around for years but their recent push into Australia has seen the release of a $200 year stock newsletter they then followed up with a $200 dividend newsletter followed by a hidden gems $200 small cap newsletter followed up by a Motley fool pro $2500 a year and now the latest and greatest Million dollar portfolio how to use all their previous picks to construct  a portfolio what to buy and when.  You might think this would be free when you have purchased all their other products :) 

No no no , only $1499 for one year saving a massive $500 but better get in quick they're only taking the first 1000 numpties oops I mean lucky investors to sign up if you believe this I have a bridge in Sydney you might be interested in . Or for 5 yrs for only the low low price of $3999 save $800.

I wonder whats next?






misterhorsey

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Re: Anyone recommend a Motley fool subscription?
« Reply #69 on: September 09, 2015, 11:26:19 PM »
Re: the Australian version, it does have a 30 day money back guarantee.

I signed up and within 2 weeks I advised them that I would like to cancel my membership.  They refunded my subscription fee within days, no questions asked.

So for those curious to have a peek they do honour their promise of a 30 day free trial. Not sure if its the same in the US.


AmeliaMom

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Re: Anyone recommend a Motley fool subscription?
« Reply #70 on: December 08, 2015, 10:52:33 AM »
PaulMaxime.. what publication do you use? SA? I am over 50 and lost money due to a small business which didn't do well. I know I won't make a million overnight.. but I would like to/need to do what I can over the next 10 years. thanks.

PaulMaxime

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Re: Anyone recommend a Motley fool subscription?
« Reply #71 on: December 13, 2015, 12:07:18 PM »
PaulMaxime.. what publication do you use? SA? I am over 50 and lost money due to a small business which didn't do well. I know I won't make a million overnight.. but I would like to/need to do what I can over the next 10 years. thanks.

Stock advisor is a good start. They do offer money back guarantee, so no risk on your part if you don't like it. Prepare for stock investments to be volatile - you aren't going to make money every month or even year, but over a long time you should do well.


ScarElbow

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Re: Anyone recommend a Motley fool subscription?
« Reply #72 on: December 13, 2015, 03:21:01 PM »
Just read this thread. I like to give high fives when high fives are deserved. PaulMaxine, high five!

cerat0n1a

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Re: Anyone recommend a Motley fool subscription?
« Reply #73 on: December 14, 2015, 08:33:23 AM »
Love the boards, have read it almost every day since the late 90s. Never paid them a penny - and no plans to ever do so.

When Motley Fool first opened in the UK, it was a complete breath of fresh air, pushing people towards index trackers and away from managed funds and pointing out a whole host of other ways the financial services industry were making money from us.

Unfortunately, there isn't much of a business to be made from doing that and they now mostly exist from getting fees from selling investments, insurance, savings accounts etc.  Some of their writers are pretty good, some aren't. I ignore both.

PaulMaxime

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Re: Anyone recommend a Motley fool subscription?
« Reply #74 on: December 14, 2015, 11:22:43 AM »
Just read this thread. I like to give high fives when high fives are deserved. PaulMaxime, high five!

Thanks.

Xooxool

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Re: Anyone recommend a Motley fool subscription?
« Reply #75 on: December 20, 2015, 02:47:13 PM »
I too am thinking about a Motley Fool subscription, which is how I ended up here. I am also an early retiree (retired at age 43). I still havent decided about MF, but I wanted to contribute to this discussion, to let others know that despite what youve heard, its not impossible to beat the market. And you dont have to be Warren Buffett.

Yes, I know about all the studies that prove you cant beat the market. I also know of studies that disprove it (see http://www.people.hbs.edu/jcoval/Papers/persist.pdf for e.g. or refer to http://fortune.com/2012/11/21/can-you-beat-the-stock-market/).

FWIW, I agree with pretty much everything that PaulMaxime (and KBecks2) said. Dont dismiss them, or me, because everyone tells you were wrong. Everyone also tells you its impossible to retire in your 30s or 40s, but MMM did, and so did I, and so have many others.

If you have a feeling that maybe you could do better than an index fund, but havent done anything because everyone tells you that you are *guaranteed* to fail, then my advice is to ignore everyone and go for it. I no longer have an opinion on whether individuals can beat the stock market. All I know is that I can. Ive beaten my index (the TSX) by a LOT, in both up and down markets (more than I ever thought possible, given what Id read over and over again). Granted, Ive become more sophisticated over the years, and I now also sell options instead of just buying and holding stocks, but nothing I do would be considered anything other than basic (my background is in the arts - not finance).

Holding individual stocks as opposed to index funds is not for everyone. But I would be wary when everyone knows something. Maybe everyone is wrong. Wouldn't be the first time.

(Also: Consider the fact that for every chump selling at the bottom, there HAS to be a counter-party who is buying. We are told that mutual funds underperform, as do hedge funds, as do pension funds. So who, exactly, is buying when everyone is selling at the bottom of the market? People like me. We exist, and were not stupid or delusional. But I get why you would think that. The opposing view has a choke-hold on public opinion. I regret listening to others and not trying my hand at stock picking earlier.)
« Last Edit: December 20, 2015, 03:35:53 PM by Xooxool »

Captain and Mrs Slow

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Re: Anyone recommend a Motley fool subscription?
« Reply #76 on: April 07, 2016, 11:02:38 AM »

BTW, if I haven't said it already, Saul's Investing Discussions is one of the best boards on MF's free forums.

Do you have a link, searched but couldn't find anything

I'm also on the side of out performing the market, it's a matter of discipline and focus. The main reason people do poorly is there stock picking method is a mess. Got an email from a friend asking about a mining stock, told her only to spend her Friday bingo money.

BTW David Stanely (Canadian Money Saver) has a 25 year track record of beating the index. His system is simply to mimic the Dogs of the Dow. Takes only a few mins per year. So yes beating the index isn't difficult.
« Last Edit: April 07, 2016, 11:24:43 AM by Captain and Mrs Slow »

Rustycage

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Re: Anyone recommend a Motley fool subscription?
« Reply #77 on: April 07, 2016, 08:07:01 PM »
Unsure about the subscription, but a few of their podcasts are fairly interesting

a1smith

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Re: Anyone recommend a Motley fool subscription?
« Reply #78 on: April 07, 2016, 10:24:43 PM »
An $8 commission on a $6000 investment that I held for 14 years has less than 0.01% annual expense ratio. And now the stock is worth $260K

Which stock did you buy?  Just curious . . .   I had a similar performer, EMC, back in the late 90's.  Didn't get to the final value you did, I sold half on some of their splits in order to diversify.

Galactic

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Re: Anyone recommend a Motley fool subscription?
« Reply #79 on: April 08, 2016, 01:04:01 AM »
Strongly advising you not to spent money on this useless website/magazine. As they always show up on Google Finance news I do read their headlines sometimes. I have seen numerous time they just provide "sensational" news and most of there advice is just abysmal. Usually you should do the opposite of what they tell you to do to make a good investment! There are better places to get your research. Seeking Alpha, Market watch...

Also as a novice you should wonder if you should really start investing. As 95% of individual investors perform worse then the S&P 500 index. Investing in individual stocks can also consume a lot of (valuable) time which you could then spent on earning money in another way. Most investors are probably best off investing in a tracker of the S&P 500 index, Berkshire Hathaway, Markel Corporation or a combination of those. These are my golden 3 equity investments. But you really need to do your own research before buying any stock or financial instrument at all.

Captain and Mrs Slow

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Re: Anyone recommend a Motley fool subscription?
« Reply #80 on: April 08, 2016, 01:53:32 AM »
Strongly advising you not to spent money on this useless website/magazine. As they always show up on Google Finance news I do read their headlines sometimes. I have seen numerous time they just provide "sensational" news and most of there advice is just abysmal.


At the moment the only money I'm spending is a subscription to Fastgraphs. In general my thinking was less about trading ideas and more about finding stocks that might not be on my radar.

To clarify one point, yes an investor can beat the market but it requires focus and discipline and learning and sticking to a style. Most investors don't take the time to learn and develop a strategy. For myself it's blue chip dividend growth stocks, Canada only and at the moment nothing from the oil and gas sector. But that's only about half my portfolio, the other half is in ETFs

chasesfish

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Re: Anyone recommend a Motley fool subscription?
« Reply #81 on: April 08, 2016, 05:31:10 AM »
I've always been a hobby investor in individual stocks.

I listen to 2-3 of their podcasts and listen to every episode.  I think Motley Fool (as of today) is an excellent organization.  They were not as good in the mid-last 90's, but the leadership seems far more experience and mature.

Most of my best holdings came out of listening over the last four years - Most of the time they were companies I already knew and just thought their stock looked expensive.   (Costco, Nike, Home Depot) 2-3 years ago.  They also turned me on to a home run three years ago when Cracker Barrel was under attack by an activist investor, I dug into that company and saw the activist was right and management rapidly improved their company.

As for the subscriptions, that's tough.  You could do one of their newsletters, model a portfolio after it, and expect the returns of a mutual fund.  I think its really about what you enjoy doing as an investor.  I personally love the control of individual stocks for 35-50% of my portfolio.

PaulMaxime

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Re: Anyone recommend a Motley fool subscription?
« Reply #82 on: April 22, 2016, 07:36:04 PM »
An $8 commission on a $6000 investment that I held for 14 years has less than 0.01% annual expense ratio. And now the stock is worth $260K

Which stock did you buy?  Just curious . . .   I had a similar performer, EMC, back in the late 90's.  Didn't get to the final value you did, I sold half on some of their splits in order to diversify.

Apple. I've sold about half of it over the years to buy a house but what I have left was originally $6K and is currently worth about $220K.

LongRunInvestor

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Re: Anyone recommend a Motley fool subscription?
« Reply #83 on: May 31, 2016, 10:37:35 AM »
    Thank you for asking about a Motley Fool subscription. I work for The Motley Fool, and thought it'd be helpful to add a some context.

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    • And to touch on the main point of this thread, I'd encourage you to explore our services and verify their returns for yourself. You can access a 30 day free trial of Motley Fool Stock Advisor (our largest and most popular service) here: http://bit.ly/1VsWXhG

    If you're unhappy with the service just call us within the first 30 days of your trial and you won't be billed at day 31.

    We realize that even with our current range of services that we may not have something for everyone. Even still, we'll continue trying to educate, amuse, and enrich to the best of our ability.

    Foolishly,

    Austin
« Last Edit: May 31, 2016, 10:43:33 AM by LongRunInvestor »

zephyr911

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Re: Anyone recommend a Motley fool subscription?
« Reply #84 on: June 02, 2016, 01:50:03 PM »
LRI,

Interesting comment on DIY. I've followed the Fool since the late 1990s. In that time, it's gone from an ad-funded educational site that adamantly refused to tell visitors what to buy - preferring the hard work of teaching fundamental analysis to the willing - to a tiered provider with services running into the thousands of dollars.

Just before I found MMM and doubled down on DIY, I did pay $99 for a subscription. The analysis was interesting, but I lost interest after a month or two, partly because I got more marketing emails for higher-end services than actual reporting/analysis. Most telling, I still see TMF ads teasing the same looming disruptions three years later.

I think they started with great intentions, nearly went bankrupt as a fishing school, got jaded, and went back to selling fish.

Dicey

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Re: Anyone recommend a Motley fool subscription?
« Reply #85 on: July 09, 2016, 11:08:45 AM »
I've been outperforming for too long to go back to indexing...
We Mustachians should be questioning the conventional wisdom where we find it.
It never hurts for a mustachian to have a healthy level of self confidence, but the entire tone of this string of comments hits an oddly sour note to my spidey senses. Especially "We Mustachians..." ouch, just ouch.

MoneyCat

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Re: Anyone recommend a Motley fool subscription?
« Reply #86 on: July 10, 2016, 10:50:33 AM »
You may as well just spend that money on slot machine expert strategy videos for casinos.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

rhecarunoid

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Re: Anyone recommend a Motley fool subscription?
« Reply #87 on: July 22, 2016, 03:32:51 AM »
For the DIY idea as the question is: can I make something by myself or do I need an expert (aka a person that deals with a topic full time or: the 10000 hour rule)? I figured out that Im quite limited when it comes to finding new stocks. There are too many out there and I find myself usually in a cycle of reading the usual buzz-news about certain blue chip stocks, that are hyped. But I assume that "the most talked about" is a quality criteria to buy stock.

And its also good to keep in mind that most of the "free content" you get on the internet is usually not free. Journalism is eroding when nobody is paying for content. And we see the rise of clickbait headlines and sponsored content instead. Anyway: Ive been following fool.com and for a while and believe the quality of their analysis is good. You get solid ideas which are positive but not too over-excited (it could be a bit more pessimistic-bearish, though). Its a good base to start your own analysis on stocks. Put there is no guarantee for success and even some stocks fool.com recommended were real bummers (others were not). It depends on what youre looking for.

Im looking for a sparring partner to train with. I disagree with a lot of what I find at fool.com. E.g. I would never ever invest money in Twitter which is a current buy recommendation. To put it simple: there is no mythical stock analyst or prophet giving you recommendations for stocks that make you rich. And at the moment most US stocks are far way to expensive to make a decent profit if you start to buy now imho. Nonetheless, I just subscribed to the Rule Breakers newsletter and if I crunch the numbers: $129 for 2 years with 48 recommendations total is $2,68 per stock analysis. Yup, Im willing to pay that.

But for the sake of the argument on statistics: I followed the discussion on ETF and the underlying assumption of Efficient Market Hypothesis for quite a while. Luckily this is neither academia nor an orthodox religious matter where you have to take sides. I chose to invest in 25-35% ETF and the rest in individual stocks. One argument I found plausible: With ETF you are limiting your upward risk. I prefer to take that risk (at least with some of my assets). Nonetheless I hold some ETF.
« Last Edit: July 27, 2016, 03:08:15 AM by rhecarunoid »

zephyr911

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Re: Anyone recommend a Motley fool subscription?
« Reply #88 on: July 22, 2016, 07:54:37 AM »
This is especially true on a risk adjusted basis.
Gah. So true.
I've beaten the S&P nicely this year, but I had to do shit that literally kept me awake at night.
Plus, I fully acknowledge the role of luck, and don't plan on trying a repeat. Sleep is worth a lot to me right now.

faramund

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Re: Anyone recommend a Motley fool subscription?
« Reply #89 on: July 24, 2016, 10:55:37 PM »
I'm a long-term buy and hold investor of about 50 different companies, and I find motley fool odd. I have their pages bookmarked, and I enjoy their philosophy-of-investing articles - which are often stay-in-the-market, don't get taken in by the hype type stories, but then there's this stock-picking side which often seems to contradict those articles.

At least on their public side, there doesn't seem to be much consistency. There will be some articles saying stock X is good - and then it seems at that same time, but it might be days/weeks later - there will be others saying X is bad.

I don't think - I've ever bought a stock on their recommendation, but occasionally when a stock sharply moves, I'll read what they say about it - its just that I don't do anything based on what they say, or on such movements regardless anyway.

Goldielocks

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Re: Anyone recommend a Motley fool subscription?
« Reply #90 on: August 01, 2016, 01:40:08 AM »
DH had a subscription for 2-3 years, around 1999...

Content

I enjoyed reading the monthly newsletter / guidance reports.  They were well written, enjoyable, easy to follow and informative.  I learned a lot about fundamental stock analysis from this, and it was a great complement to the (also paid through our account and brokerage fees) bank provided research which was a bit dry, but covered additional investment types.

For that reason alone, I would recommend MF over some the other subscriptions...   


Please realize that in 2000, there was a lot less available content on the internet, and Cramer with his shouting style was big on TV. (I do not like Cramer).

Performance

We did not buy all the stocks, but only half of the recommendations.  Somewhat on par for a typical return, although later reports in later years showed good trends.  YMMV.   I don't believe in stock picking for more than 15% of one's portfolio, so that may have had something to do with my aversion to following MF....  We stopped the subscription after a 6-7 month down trend....   

JJ

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Re: Anyone recommend a Motley fool subscription?
« Reply #91 on: September 01, 2016, 12:05:32 AM »
I have a couple of Australian MF subscriptions. I've come to use them as a source of ideas rather than a replacement for my own decision making. You still have to do your own research IMHO. The forums are really great - a lot of value in there, but takes a while to dig it out. The recommendations that have flown have massively outweighed the losses on the duds (for me at any rate - I probably look seriously at 1/4 of their ideas).

Re: the chart showing where gains & losses have come from and whether you can improve performance over an all encompassing index... I read about 100 annual reports for listed companies last January as an experiment and I typically read 1-2 a week ongoing. I can tell you that, especially in the small cap world, there are a lot of shockingly bad companies that never have, never will and never _could_ make any decent profits. If you read a few annual reports you soon get your eye in and it doesn't take a lot of effort to spot them. Junior mineral exploration companies often go "shareholder mining" - raising fresh capital to spend on exploration, but more importantly, keeping the director's fees coming so they can keep their late model European luxury cars up to date. There's very little chance of making a successful discovery. I'm sure the TSX is swamped with the same.

If you just excluded those, statistically you'd do a lot better than the index. In fact, there has to be an opportunity for a JJAOMTCTSNHBL index fund - JJ's All Ordinaries Minus Terrible Companies That Should Never Have Been Listed.

As to whether you can beat the index... I am totally comfortable that if you take the time to understand how businesses work in general, how directors can act for or against shareholder interests and how a particular business under investigation operates it is straightforward (emotional issues aside) to beat the index over the long term for all the reasons PaulMaxime has spelled out. BUT, it does take a lot of time and research (probably re-reading 20 investing books 5 times each plus a couple of hundred financial statements and business strategies). Not everyone will have the time, the interest or, frankly, the acumen to do this but it doesn't mean that consistent outperformance is impossible for everyone. If it isn't in your zone, buy an index fund.

FWIW, I'm about 12% up compared with an ASX index fund over the last 2 years. Not bad - 6% p.a. outperformance - but a very short timeframe still. The strike rate and comfort level is improving with (somewhat expensive) experience.

financialfreedomsloth

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Re: Anyone recommend a Motley fool subscription?
« Reply #92 on: September 01, 2016, 05:55:45 AM »

BTW, if I haven't said it already, Saul's Investing Discussions is one of the best boards on MF's free forums.

Do you have a link, searched but couldn't find anything

I'm also on the side of out performing the market, it's a matter of discipline and focus. The main reason people do poorly is there stock picking method is a mess. Got an email from a friend asking about a mining stock, told her only to spend her Friday bingo money.

BTW David Stanely (Canadian Money Saver) has a 25 year track record of beating the index. His system is simply to mimic the Dogs of the Dow. Takes only a few mins per year. So yes beating the index isn't difficult.

I think they referred to this: sauls investing discussions - http://boards.fool.com/sauls-investing-discussions-120980.aspx by user SaulR80683
But After looking through a few of his positions (TESLA, AMAZON) I personally am not a fan...

Agree with you that out performing the market is a matter of discipline and focus. Which I think most people miss and thus it is better to advise to just do indexing (which also takes discipline and focus but at least takes less time and can be automated, hence improvinging the discipline ...)

Personally I also think beating the market as an individual is possible because of the reasons paulmaxime mentioned:
1: We don't have to compete with anyone else for quarterly performance. We can hold on as long as we want. Time frame is the biggest advantage.
2: Invest in businesses not names or charts or whatever. Buy excellent companies and hold on to them for a long time.
3: We can control our own behavior.

If you want to keep it simple, as an individual investor and beat the market: buy the index and then play with options or do something on margin only when you find an opportunity (the take over of SABMiller by ABinbev comes to mind, the stock of SABMiller was at 40 GBP for weeks even after the offer of 44 GBP was put forward, made a nice extra 5% on my total portfolio there ).

For money managers, they have the added difficulty that they need to beat the index AFTER their wages + the expenses and profit of the company they work for which makes it an almost impossible task. If I had overhead and had to pay myself a decent salary I would have a lot less confidence in me being capable of beating the index

See stock picking as a side gig that can bring in some decent money. But, if after 5 years you have not consistely beat the index be honest with yourself and just buy index funds ...

Cache_Stash

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Re: Anyone recommend a Motley fool subscription?
« Reply #93 on: October 26, 2018, 04:36:02 PM »
Way to generalize.  My swks shares doubled in under 1 year.  Amba is up over 200% in two years.  This is above average performance.

Maybe by a little bit.  The market as a whole is up over 300% in five years.  And I got that performance without paying for anyone's advice.

That is completely incorrect.  Not even close.  I'm pointing this out so that others don't buy into your data point.

sol

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Re: Anyone recommend a Motley fool subscription?
« Reply #94 on: October 26, 2018, 04:49:04 PM »
That is completely incorrect.  Not even close.  I'm pointing this out so that others don't buy into your data point.

It was true when I posted it in July of 2015.

Necro threads can be confusing.  I don't blame you for calling me a liar without double checking the relevant facts.  I won't hold it against you.
« Last Edit: October 26, 2018, 04:50:36 PM by sol »

Goldielocks

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Re: Anyone recommend a Motley fool subscription?
« Reply #95 on: October 26, 2018, 05:08:21 PM »
Sol, you are very charitable with that reply.

Cache_Stash

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Re: Anyone recommend a Motley fool subscription?
« Reply #96 on: October 26, 2018, 05:26:41 PM »
Read SA articles.  Select articles based on stock and immediately go to comments section and read the WHOLE thing.  There is a wealth of information and you'll get the skinny on sentiment.

The articles are mostly useless.  Although, there are some analysts that are worth reading you'll eventually weed them out. But, don't ignore their articles.  Just go to the comments section.  A lot of smart people (and ignorant) post comments.  You'll also learn to weed out the ignorant commenters as well.

sol

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Re: Anyone recommend a Motley fool subscription?
« Reply #97 on: October 26, 2018, 05:42:26 PM »
Sol, you are very charitable with that reply.

I don't think so.  Calling out bullshit on the forums is important.  If someone is making false claims, we all have a responsibility to speak up, and Cache thought he was doing the right thing.  I'm not mad at that.

And that 2010-2015 window really was a pretty incredible time to be an index investor.

Goldielocks

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Re: Anyone recommend a Motley fool subscription?
« Reply #98 on: October 26, 2018, 05:52:34 PM »
Sol, you are very charitable with that reply.

I don't think so.  Calling out bullshit on the forums is important.  If someone is making false claims, we all have a responsibility to speak up, and Cache thought he was doing the right thing.  I'm not mad at that.

And that 2010-2015 window really was a pretty incredible time to be an index investor.

But, but,  this is the internet -- very few people would choose to pause and think of it from the author's POV.  Think about WHY or where the comment came from.

TomTX

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Re: Anyone recommend a Motley fool subscription?
« Reply #99 on: October 26, 2018, 06:47:41 PM »
I would definitely recommend the Motley Fool's service. I just wrote a blog post explaining exactly why i this it's worth the money. In short, they recommended i buy Amazon 3 years ago which i could not be happier about. Overall, they're stock picks continue to be profitable for me, so i am still a customer.   

Suuure...

One post account shilling their blog and the Scamming Fool subscription. Ugh.