Author Topic: Aaaaand the bear market is over  (Read 10945 times)

sol

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #50 on: January 10, 2019, 09:44:39 PM »
Even most Americans are net takers, but it's worse for illegals.

Your understanding of economics is considerably flawed.  You really think that everyone who does work is a taker, and rich people who live off investments or business ownership are actually contributing?  Taxes paid are NOT the right way to gauge economic productivity.

I assure you that if every "taker" in your definition were to suddenly evaporate, our economy would collapse.  Labor is the source of all wealth, remember?  Those people WORK, for you and for me, and their work is what keeps this country running.  We need people who work hard, and the fact that they make so little money that they pay no taxes does not make them takers.  Quite the contrary, I would argue that every CEO and celebrity athlete and trust fund kid is a taker, because they consume enormous resources without doing any meaningful work. 

The rich are the parasites of society, not the poor.  Poor people work, and produce, and create.  Rich people just consume, mostly while doing nothing.  They're vital parasites, don't get me wrong, but they're still parasites.  Living off the hard work of others.  Taking advantage of lenient tax laws that preserve their privileged position in society.  Lounging by the pool, complaining on the internet about all of the people who mow their lawns for them. 

And since you're so stuck on the supposed cost of illegal immigration, I'm sure you're aware that these people pay taxes without being eligible to receive social services, right?  They're the exact opposite of takers.  They give and get nothing back.

DavidAnnArbor

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #51 on: January 11, 2019, 06:28:41 AM »
Of course there is 1) a skills gap for the jobs that pay well, and 2) mostly low paying jobs available.

If republicans find a way to stop illegal immigration, there will be TONS of jobs available on farms and ranches, in landscaping and housecleaning companies, and on freelance construction crews standing outside of Home Depot.  Tell your kids they don't need to go to college, there's about to be record low unemployment for anyone willing to put in hard labor for below minimum wage.
Wouldn't be surprised to learn of a serious new housing shortage, either, due to lack of labor.

More likely that there would be an excess of housing due to reduced immigration. I work in the forest industry. Aside from the current shortage of blue-collar labor, the primary concern at present is that long-term dampening of immigration, combined with slowing organic population growth, will keep new housing demand well below long-term trends. That doesn't bode well for solid wood product demand (i.e., everything but paper) which is primarily driven by new housing.
I've lived in large, urban areas with big housing growth in two states and I haven't seen a white man on a building crew in almost a decade. If most of that Hispanic labor dissappeared overnight new home building would basically grind to a halt. I'm very doubtful the reduction in demand would outstrip the loss of labor.

The luxury condos that are being built next to my house are a mix of white and Hispanic labor.

MissNancyPryor

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #52 on: January 11, 2019, 06:48:28 AM »
I have wondered why poor black people are rarely found doing construction, the mix of labor does seem to be as noted.   

JAYSLOL

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #53 on: January 11, 2019, 06:55:23 AM »
Even most Americans are net takers, but it's worse for illegals.

Your understanding of economics is considerably flawed.  You really think that everyone who does work is a taker, and rich people who live off investments or business ownership are actually contributing?  Taxes paid are NOT the right way to gauge economic productivity.

I assure you that if every "taker" in your definition were to suddenly evaporate, our economy would collapse.  Labor is the source of all wealth, remember?  Those people WORK, for you and for me, and their work is what keeps this country running.  We need people who work hard, and the fact that they make so little money that they pay no taxes does not make them takers.  Quite the contrary, I would argue that every CEO and celebrity athlete and trust fund kid is a taker, because they consume enormous resources without doing any meaningful work. 

The rich are the parasites of society, not the poor.  Poor people work, and produce, and create.  Rich people just consume, mostly while doing nothing.  They're vital parasites, don't get me wrong, but they're still parasites.  Living off the hard work of others.  Taking advantage of lenient tax laws that preserve their privileged position in society.  Lounging by the pool, complaining on the internet about all of the people who mow their lawns for them. 

And since you're so stuck on the supposed cost of illegal immigration, I'm sure you're aware that these people pay taxes without being eligible to receive social services, right?  They're the exact opposite of takers.  They give and get nothing back.

Well said sol

Mississippi Mudstache

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #54 on: January 11, 2019, 07:25:42 AM »
Of course there is 1) a skills gap for the jobs that pay well, and 2) mostly low paying jobs available.

If republicans find a way to stop illegal immigration, there will be TONS of jobs available on farms and ranches, in landscaping and housecleaning companies, and on freelance construction crews standing outside of Home Depot.  Tell your kids they don't need to go to college, there's about to be record low unemployment for anyone willing to put in hard labor for below minimum wage.
Wouldn't be surprised to learn of a serious new housing shortage, either, due to lack of labor.

More likely that there would be an excess of housing due to reduced immigration. I work in the forest industry. Aside from the current shortage of blue-collar labor, the primary concern at present is that long-term dampening of immigration, combined with slowing organic population growth, will keep new housing demand well below long-term trends. That doesn't bode well for solid wood product demand (i.e., everything but paper) which is primarily driven by new housing.
I've lived in large, urban areas with big housing growth in two states and I haven't seen a white man on a building crew in almost a decade. If most of that Hispanic labor dissappeared overnight new home building would basically grind to a halt. I'm very doubtful the reduction in demand would outstrip the loss of labor.

So what exactly makes you think that those Hispanics that you see building houses are illegal immigrants? Do you think that most Hispanics are here illegally?

Mr. Green

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #55 on: January 11, 2019, 10:57:53 AM »
Of course there is 1) a skills gap for the jobs that pay well, and 2) mostly low paying jobs available.

If republicans find a way to stop illegal immigration, there will be TONS of jobs available on farms and ranches, in landscaping and housecleaning companies, and on freelance construction crews standing outside of Home Depot.  Tell your kids they don't need to go to college, there's about to be record low unemployment for anyone willing to put in hard labor for below minimum wage.
Wouldn't be surprised to learn of a serious new housing shortage, either, due to lack of labor.

More likely that there would be an excess of housing due to reduced immigration. I work in the forest industry. Aside from the current shortage of blue-collar labor, the primary concern at present is that long-term dampening of immigration, combined with slowing organic population growth, will keep new housing demand well below long-term trends. That doesn't bode well for solid wood product demand (i.e., everything but paper) which is primarily driven by new housing.
I've lived in large, urban areas with big housing growth in two states and I haven't seen a white man on a building crew in almost a decade. If most of that Hispanic labor dissappeared overnight new home building would basically grind to a halt. I'm very doubtful the reduction in demand would outstrip the loss of labor.

So what exactly makes you think that those Hispanics that you see building houses are illegal immigrants? Do you think that most Hispanics are here illegally?
I didn't say they were illegal. But it's obvious the current administration would prefer no immigration, based on policy changes made that limit legal immigration. Immigration has always beenone of this country's great drivers of growth. It's simply not intelligent to turn that off because you don't like the percentage of white people you see in a crowd anymore.

Mississippi Mudstache

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #56 on: January 11, 2019, 11:17:45 AM »
Of course there is 1) a skills gap for the jobs that pay well, and 2) mostly low paying jobs available.

If republicans find a way to stop illegal immigration, there will be TONS of jobs available on farms and ranches, in landscaping and housecleaning companies, and on freelance construction crews standing outside of Home Depot.  Tell your kids they don't need to go to college, there's about to be record low unemployment for anyone willing to put in hard labor for below minimum wage.
Wouldn't be surprised to learn of a serious new housing shortage, either, due to lack of labor.

More likely that there would be an excess of housing due to reduced immigration. I work in the forest industry. Aside from the current shortage of blue-collar labor, the primary concern at present is that long-term dampening of immigration, combined with slowing organic population growth, will keep new housing demand well below long-term trends. That doesn't bode well for solid wood product demand (i.e., everything but paper) which is primarily driven by new housing.
I've lived in large, urban areas with big housing growth in two states and I haven't seen a white man on a building crew in almost a decade. If most of that Hispanic labor dissappeared overnight new home building would basically grind to a halt. I'm very doubtful the reduction in demand would outstrip the loss of labor.

So what exactly makes you think that those Hispanics that you see building houses are illegal immigrants? Do you think that most Hispanics are here illegally?
I didn't say they were illegal. But it's obvious the current administration would prefer no immigration, based on policy changes made that limit legal immigration. Immigration has always beenone of this country's great drivers of growth. It's simply not intelligent to turn that off because you don't like the percentage of white people you see in a crowd anymore.

I definitely agree with you on that point. We'll have to disagree on whether or not immigration reduction would tighten or loosen availability of new housing. For what it's worth, the US Dept. of Labor reports that about 30% of the construction labor force is Hispanic. I'd be willing to bet that the vast majority of them are citizens or legal immigrants/visa holders. Meanwhile, Pew estimated in 2015 that, between 2015 and 2065, immigrants and their descendants will account for 88% of U.S. population growth. Perhaps you can see why people in the wood products industry are far more concerned about a lack of immigration reducing long-term housing starts that they are about labor shortages in the construction industry.

I will note that labor shortages are real as well - and currently affecting our industry as well as all others - but those tend to be short-term effects that will resolve themselves in the next recession at the latest. A significant, long-term reduction in demand for wood products, on the other hand, is an existential crisis.
« Last Edit: January 11, 2019, 12:54:07 PM by Mississippi Mudstache »

Raeon

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #57 on: January 12, 2019, 01:17:16 AM »
At risk of getting drawn into political discussions I have to point out something I often see locally.  The majority of home builders are small locally owned businesses. To reduce taxes the owners of these small businesses often pay the majority of their labor under the table with cash.  The legal laborer (by immigration status,White or Hispanic doesn't matter) earns $25+ per hour working 60 hours/week while a job is active but Uncle Sam thinks he is making $0. 

Those laborers then go home and do what most people do, they procreate.  They then apply for WIC benefits, food stamps, and subsidized healthcare for themselves and their children.  They go out and buy $60,000 vehicles  because, hey, they've sweated and earned it (their thought process, we all know it's not Mustachian).  The problem is, they then load that 60k vehicle with the groceries they(WE) just paid for with their SNAP benefits (food stamps).  This can happen anywhere of course but I find it to be occurring disproportionately in construction and restaurants.  The restaurants are less of an issue in my eyes anyway due to cook wages being substantially lower than construction worker wages. A minimum wage cook wouldn't be paying much/anything for taxes anyway. I suppose my next question is this, who is worse? The rich trust fund baby, the welfare abuser, or the small business owner avoiding taxes?  The trust fund baby is most legit legally, but one could argue they are all a drain on the system. 

I personally feel from an economic viewpoint (disregarding the safety issues of drug cartels, human trafficking, etc) people get way too caught up pointing their fingers at our southern border when they should really be focusing on simplifying our tax code and enforcing it.

The arguments about taxes and government becoming too large and using its dollars inefficiently are different discussions.

AdrianC

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #58 on: January 12, 2019, 05:29:10 AM »
At risk of getting drawn into political discussions I have to point out something I often see locally.  The majority of home builders are small locally owned businesses. To reduce taxes the owners of these small businesses often pay the majority of their labor under the table with cash. 
How does under the table with cash reduce their taxes?

Wages to employees and payments to independent contractors are legitimate business expenses that reduce the business owners tax liability. Paying under the table with cash does not.

terran

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #59 on: January 12, 2019, 06:51:25 AM »
At risk of getting drawn into political discussions I have to point out something I often see locally.  The majority of home builders are small locally owned businesses. To reduce taxes the owners of these small businesses often pay the majority of their labor under the table with cash. 
How does under the table with cash reduce their taxes?

Wages to employees and payments to independent contractors are legitimate business expenses that reduce the business owners tax liability. Paying under the table with cash does not.

No FICA and no state unemployment tax. And if they pay under market in recognition of the fact that the employee also won't pay FICA or income tax that could also reduce costs.

You're right that they'll have to pay more income tax themselves by not writing the wages off as an expense though.

Mr. Green

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #60 on: January 12, 2019, 11:31:52 AM »
The point I was trying to make is that the economic value of the taxes the government collects, or doesn't collect, on anyone pales in comparison to the money engine they drive by simply being alive. Assuming they aren't Mustachians. :) They buy goods and use services in an economy whose cornerstone is the growth of people buying goods and services. Everyone gets hung up on taxes, and it's not even worth talking about if they aren't looking at the bigger picture

letsdoit

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #61 on: January 16, 2019, 10:04:22 AM »
ppl without documentation in the US pay alot of taxes, via tax ID #s

DreamFIRE

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #62 on: January 16, 2019, 05:14:33 PM »
ppl without documentation in the US pay alot of taxes, via tax ID #s

The amount of taxes that illegals pay into the system is FAR less than they suck out of the economy.  Illegals will literally cost us in the TRILLIONS of dollars over the next generation when you factor in what they cost us vs. the small amount they contribute.

See this study.

https://www.heritage.org/immigration/report/the-fiscal-cost-unlawful-immigrants-and-amnesty-the-us-taxpayer

aspiringnomad

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #63 on: January 16, 2019, 05:51:47 PM »
ppl without documentation in the US pay alot of taxes, via tax ID #s

The amount of taxes that illegals pay into the system is FAR less than they suck out of the economy.  Illegals will literally cost us in the TRILLIONS of dollars over the next generation when you factor in what they cost us vs. the small amount they contribute.

See this study.

https://www.heritage.org/immigration/report/the-fiscal-cost-unlawful-immigrants-and-amnesty-the-us-taxpayer

Garbage in, garbage out when it comes to studies. As I'm sure you know, the source of the study you linked to is a hard-right conservative think tank, but one not need leave the right side of the political spectrum to find damning critiques of the study's methodology and conclusions:

From the right-leaning Cato Institute: https://www.cato.org/blog/heritages-flawed-immigration-analysis
"I criticized an earlier version of this report in 2007, arguing that their methodology was so flawed that one cannot take their reportís conclusions seriously...The new Heritage report is still depressingly static, leading to a massive underestimation of the economic benefits of immigration and diminishing estimated tax revenue.  It explicitly refuses to consider the GDP growth and economic productivity gains from immigration reformófactors that increase native-born American incomes."

And among a litany of criticisms from Americans for Tax Reform which has a banner of Trump's face plastered across each page on their website: https://www.atr.org/conservative-critiques-heritage-immigration-study-a7674
"The authors write that unlawful immigrant households generate annual earnings of $38,988. Tim Kane notes that "unless they expect readers to believe all this household income (a) generates no productive work and (b) is 100 percent remitted abroad, consuming nothing in the U.S. macro economy, then the report is misleading...The study includes 4.5 million U.S.-born children - American citizens - in its calculation of 12.7 'illegal immigrants.' Children born here are citizens. They are already eligible for public benefits and will be regardless of their parentsí status."

Also of note is that the study was released while Jim DeMint was the president of the Heritage Foundation. He was removed from that post in 2017 because his approach towards steering the organization was "too bombastic and too political to the detriment of its research and scholarly aims." Imagine that - being too bombastic and too political for the freakin' Heritage Foundation...




ysette9

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #64 on: January 17, 2019, 01:59:57 PM »
Thanks for saying it better than I could, aspiringnomad.

Produce some studies from some reputable sources and you’ll get a lot more traction in the debate around here.

DreamFIRE

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #65 on: January 17, 2019, 06:40:01 PM »

It cracks me up when people try to attack the messenger just because they don't like the message or otherwise conflicts with their own misguided viewpoint.

Read the study I posted and come to your own conclusion.  But don't cry about it just because it's not from some far left website that you typically follow.

JAYSLOL

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #66 on: January 17, 2019, 07:17:38 PM »

It cracks me up when people try to attack the messenger just because they don't like the message or otherwise conflicts with their own misguided viewpoint.

Read the study I posted and come to your own conclusion.  But don't cry about it just because it's not from some far left website that you typically follow.

I don't see how you were personally attacked in those responses to that study.  Also, just because someone judges the fairness of a study based on the political nature of the organization behind it doesn't mean they only trust studies from the opposite end of the spectrum, it means at least for me, that I prefer research and study to be non-political in origin or bias. 

theolympians

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #67 on: January 17, 2019, 07:42:36 PM »
Even most Americans are net takers, but it's worse for illegals.

Your understanding of economics is considerably flawed.  You really think that everyone who does work is a taker, and rich people who live off investments or business ownership are actually contributing?  Taxes paid are NOT the right way to gauge economic productivity.

I assure you that if every "taker" in your definition were to suddenly evaporate, our economy would collapse.  Labor is the source of all wealth, remember?  Those people WORK, for you and for me, and their work is what keeps this country running.  We need people who work hard, and the fact that they make so little money that they pay no taxes does not make them takers.  Quite the contrary, I would argue that every CEO and celebrity athlete and trust fund kid is a taker, because they consume enormous resources without doing any meaningful work. 

The rich are the parasites of society, not the poor.  Poor people work, and produce, and create.  Rich people just consume, mostly while doing nothing.  They're vital parasites, don't get me wrong, but they're still parasites.  Living off the hard work of others.  Taking advantage of lenient tax laws that preserve their privileged position in society.  Lounging by the pool, complaining on the internet about all of the people who mow their lawns for them. 

"And since you're so stuck on the supposed cost of illegal immigration, I'm sure you're aware that these people pay taxes without being eligible to receive social services, right?  They're the exact opposite of takers.  They give and get nothing back."

I would disagree with you there. In my line of work I will come across illegals. They generally seem to have, for lack of a better term, welfare debit cards and driver's licenses. No matter what the law or administrative policy says, they get them.

DavidAnnArbor

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #68 on: January 17, 2019, 07:49:03 PM »
Even most Americans are net takers, but it's worse for illegals.

Your understanding of economics is considerably flawed.  You really think that everyone who does work is a taker, and rich people who live off investments or business ownership are actually contributing?  Taxes paid are NOT the right way to gauge economic productivity.

I assure you that if every "taker" in your definition were to suddenly evaporate, our economy would collapse.  Labor is the source of all wealth, remember?  Those people WORK, for you and for me, and their work is what keeps this country running.  We need people who work hard, and the fact that they make so little money that they pay no taxes does not make them takers.  Quite the contrary, I would argue that every CEO and celebrity athlete and trust fund kid is a taker, because they consume enormous resources without doing any meaningful work. 

The rich are the parasites of society, not the poor.  Poor people work, and produce, and create.  Rich people just consume, mostly while doing nothing.  They're vital parasites, don't get me wrong, but they're still parasites.  Living off the hard work of others.  Taking advantage of lenient tax laws that preserve their privileged position in society.  Lounging by the pool, complaining on the internet about all of the people who mow their lawns for them. 

"And since you're so stuck on the supposed cost of illegal immigration, I'm sure you're aware that these people pay taxes without being eligible to receive social services, right?  They're the exact opposite of takers.  They give and get nothing back."

I would disagree with you there. In my line of work I will come across illegals. They generally seem to have, for lack of a better term, welfare debit cards and driver's licenses. No matter what the law or administrative policy says, they get them.

Welfare benefits like what?  Are you talking about SNAP the food assistance program?  You can't get these benefits without a huge amount of proof and documentation.

You'd better hope we have lots of immigrants coming to this country if you want to FIRE.

YOu have two choices, you can either have no more immigration to this country, or you can have your FIRE goal met, but you can't have both.

aspiringnomad

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #69 on: January 17, 2019, 07:50:29 PM »

It cracks me up when people try to attack the messenger just because they don't like the message or otherwise conflicts with their own misguided viewpoint.

Read the study I posted and come to your own conclusion.  But don't cry about it just because it's not from some far left website that you typically follow.

It cracks me up when people replace their intelligence with their ideology. I posted criticism from the right and you still somehow think I read far left websites. In any case, I look forward to you posting the next great study by QAnon.

ysette9

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #70 on: January 17, 2019, 09:25:03 PM »

It cracks me up when people try to attack the messenger just because they don't like the message or otherwise conflicts with their own misguided viewpoint.

Read the study I posted and come to your own conclusion.  But don't cry about it just because it's not from some far left website that you typically follow.

It cracks me up when people replace their intelligence with their ideology. I posted criticism from the right and you still somehow think I read far left websites. In any case, I look forward to you posting the next great study by QAnon.
It is like we are here debating what color the sky is outside. DreamFIRE is looking at the sky from inside a house that has green-tinted windows. It is possible that his conclusion about the sky color is correct, but I’d much rather get my info from someone with clear windows.

DreamFIRE

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #71 on: January 17, 2019, 09:36:51 PM »

It cracks me up when people try to attack the messenger just because they don't like the message or otherwise conflicts with their own misguided viewpoint.

Read the study I posted and come to your own conclusion.  But don't cry about it just because it's not from some far left website that you typically follow.

It cracks me up when people replace their intelligence with their ideology. I posted criticism from the right and you still somehow think I read far left websites.

That's the ironic part.  I'm not ideological.  I'm a free thinking independent.  I don't let a single party or the mainstream media brainwash or otherwise manipulate my thinking.  My views on illegals and border security predates Trump by a long ways.  It's something I've followed for years and learned a great deal about.  It's not about Trump to me - I even oppose him on other matters such as the ACA.

ysette9

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #72 on: January 18, 2019, 08:06:53 AM »
That is totally fine. Your position would be better supported quoting articles from sources that look at the world through clear windows, not colored windows. That is all we are trying to say.

Maenad

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #73 on: January 18, 2019, 09:38:11 AM »
Back to the thread topic, looks like we're out of Correction territory with the S&P as well!

nihilism122

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #74 on: January 18, 2019, 09:54:22 AM »
So much for the sky falling.  I really thought it was different this time.  The global economy would collapse and everyone would go bankrupt.  Really surprised it was just more empty noise. 

JAYSLOL

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #75 on: January 18, 2019, 11:49:01 AM »
So much for the sky falling.  I really thought it was different this time.  The global economy would collapse and everyone would go bankrupt.  Really surprised it was just more empty noise.

It all happened so quickly you're still within the return policy period to return all the guns and canned food I assume you stocked up on :)

Brother Esau

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #76 on: January 18, 2019, 01:19:28 PM »
So much for the sky falling.  I really thought it was different this time.  The global economy would collapse and everyone would go bankrupt.  Really surprised it was just more empty noise.

It all happened so quickly you're still within the return policy period to return all the guns and canned food I assume you stocked up on :)

So quickly that thor didn't have time to start a "Bottom is in" thread.

sol

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #77 on: January 18, 2019, 03:00:27 PM »
So much for the sky falling... it was just more empty noise.

It's almost like you can't time the market.  Who would have thought?

JAYSLOL

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #78 on: January 18, 2019, 03:21:21 PM »
So much for the sky falling.  I really thought it was different this time.  The global economy would collapse and everyone would go bankrupt.  Really surprised it was just more empty noise.

It all happened so quickly you're still within the return policy period to return all the guns and canned food I assume you stocked up on :)

So quickly that thor didn't have time to start a "Bottom is in" thread.

In fairness, when you're over 1000 years old monthly market swings seem really quick

ILikeDividends

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #79 on: January 18, 2019, 03:22:02 PM »
So much for the sky falling.  I really thought it was different this time.  The global economy would collapse and everyone would go bankrupt.  Really surprised it was just more empty noise.

It all happened so quickly you're still within the return policy period to return all the guns and canned food I assume you stocked up on :)

So quickly that thor didn't have time to start a "Bottom is in" thread.
I don't think he plays for that team.

dividendman

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #80 on: January 18, 2019, 07:16:53 PM »
I'd just like to point out, that the rich, particularly shareholders in, and owners of, large businesses and farmers, consume much more in government services than they pay compared to an illegal immigrant. The poor, and illegal immigrants, are subsidizing the rich and not the other way around. I would venture to say that the vast majority of folks on this forum are in this rich "taker" class, including myself.

I have no idea how the real takers (us) have successfully painted the poor and illegal immigrants as the takers when it's not the case if you just open up the federal and state government budgets. Virtually all expenditures in the departments of defense, state, the courts, treasury, interior, agriculture, commerce, labor, transportation, energy, homeland security are for services consumed only by the rich. The same is true for state expenditures. Poor people simply don't consume the most expensive government services.

Poor people don't travel, don't have a military protecting their business interests, or police forces protecting their properties, don't use transportation and infrastructure as much, don't benefit directly from trade deals or get bailed out by the federal debt or the interest on that debt compared to corporations (and therefore their owners). Poor people don't really use the courts at all (unless they're being convicted by them) etc. etc. They basically consume no government resources.

A TL;DR way to look at it is this: If the government went away today,who would be worse off? It's not going to be the guy picking avocados for less than min wage.



mastrr

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #81 on: January 18, 2019, 09:24:52 PM »
-Trump said he is going to build a wall, gets elected
-Puts a plan together to build the wall
-Democrats are defiant and hate Trump so are doing everything in their power to not allow him to build a wall
-The cost of the wall is far outweighed by the cost government shut down

Trump is giving people the ability to immigrate legally and wants to put a stop to something that is illegal. To me Trump looks like the good guy.

What are the negative effects of a wall? What is the logic behind Democrats not agreeing to fund the wall besides spite?  It seems to me like just an emotional response. Enlighten me.

dividendman

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #82 on: January 18, 2019, 09:55:35 PM »
-Trump said he is going to build a wall, gets elected
-Puts a plan together to build the wall
-Democrats are defiant and hate Trump so are doing everything in their power to not allow him to build a wall
-The cost of the wall is far outweighed by the cost government shut down

Trump is giving people the ability to immigrate legally and wants to put a stop to something that is illegal. To me Trump looks like the good guy.

What are the negative effects of a wall? What is the logic behind Democrats not agreeing to fund the wall besides spite?  It seems to me like just an emotional response. Enlighten me.

I think the big problem here is that he had republicans controlling everything and couldn't get money for a wall. Why didn't he shut down the government in the first year to do it? or the second? Why now? Why do it when he's least likely to have it happen? The democrats got elected on not funding the wall! They have no reason to do it.

Anyway, i was just responding to the earlier conversation about illegal immigrants and the cost to us the taxpayer.

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #83 on: January 18, 2019, 11:14:40 PM »
-Trump said he is going to build a wall, gets elected
-Puts a plan together to build the wall
-Democrats are defiant and hate Trump so are doing everything in their power to not allow him to build a wall
-The cost of the wall is far outweighed by the cost government shut down

Trump is giving people the ability to immigrate legally and wants to put a stop to something that is illegal. To me Trump looks like the good guy.

What are the negative effects of a wall? What is the logic behind Democrats not agreeing to fund the wall besides spite?  It seems to me like just an emotional response. Enlighten me.

For two years the Democrats had zero power to prevent the wall. Defiant??? Congress is an equal, not lesser, branch of government. The Republicans didnt give him the wall either.

Negative effects? Billions of wasted dollars. Our national debt is massive. Billions of dollars on a completely ineffective project absurd. And it's environmentally catastrophic.

mastrr

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #84 on: January 19, 2019, 05:24:35 AM »
-Trump said he is going to build a wall, gets elected
-Puts a plan together to build the wall
-Democrats are defiant and hate Trump so are doing everything in their power to not allow him to build a wall
-The cost of the wall is far outweighed by the cost government shut down

Trump is giving people the ability to immigrate legally and wants to put a stop to something that is illegal. To me Trump looks like the good guy.

What are the negative effects of a wall? What is the logic behind Democrats not agreeing to fund the wall besides spite?  It seems to me like just an emotional response. Enlighten me.

For two years the Democrats had zero power to prevent the wall. Defiant??? Congress is an equal, not lesser, branch of government. The Republicans didnt give him the wall either.

Negative effects? Billions of wasted dollars. Our national debt is massive. Billions of dollars on a completely ineffective project absurd. And it's environmentally catastrophic.

We are seeing the negative effects of equality in making decisions, nothing getting done and worse things happening due to that indecision.

At least it seems practical - people are crossing the borders illegally and building a wall helps with that crime.  I don't know how it can be deemed ineffective if it hasn't been implemented yet it seems straghtforward.  I don't see how a wall more environmentally catastrophic then building a long highway or a city but I havnen't looked into it.

All decisions are going to have consequences.


mies

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #85 on: January 19, 2019, 07:23:52 AM »
-Trump said he is going to build a wall, gets elected
-Puts a plan together to build the wall
-Democrats are defiant and hate Trump so are doing everything in their power to not allow him to build a wall
-The cost of the wall is far outweighed by the cost government shut down

Trump is giving people the ability to immigrate legally and wants to put a stop to something that is illegal. To me Trump looks like the good guy.

What are the negative effects of a wall? What is the logic behind Democrats not agreeing to fund the wall besides spite?  It seems to me like just an emotional response. Enlighten me.

For two years the Democrats had zero power to prevent the wall. Defiant??? Congress is an equal, not lesser, branch of government. The Republicans didnt give him the wall either.

Negative effects? Billions of wasted dollars. Our national debt is massive. Billions of dollars on a completely ineffective project absurd. And it's environmentally catastrophic.

We are seeing the negative effects of equality in making decisions, nothing getting done and worse things happening due to that indecision.

At least it seems practical - people are crossing the borders illegally and building a wall helps with that crime.  I don't know how it can be deemed ineffective if it hasn't been implemented yet it seems straghtforward.  I don't see how a wall more environmentally catastrophic then building a long highway or a city but I havnen't looked into it.

All decisions are going to have consequences.

I think you are overlooking the very specific campaign promise that he was going to build a wall and make Mexico pay for it. Thatís like saying youíre going to fuck someone up the ass and make the person getting fucked pay for the lube. It was an absurd promise to make.

Nobody in the republican controlled congress was willing to allocate money for a wall and other than a couple of short temper tantrum shutdowns, trump yielded on it. He had a a spending bill that did not include funds for a wall over a month ago when the the republicans still controlled congress. Now that the democrats have control of the house, he has manufactured a crisis to get simpletons riled up over nothing. Itís a vanity project at this point.

Also, the cost of a wall isnít just going to be the cost to build it. You would still have to maintain it and patrol it. Itís another money suck. You donít just build a structure, clap the dust off your hands, walk away, and never pay attention to it again.

If trump had proposed fixing our actual infrastructure like roads, bridges, sewers, water supply line replacement, and communication lines, I would absolutely get behind that and support it. But heís being a petty asshole and causing chaos so he can ďkeep the base fired upĒ.

JAYSLOL

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #86 on: January 19, 2019, 08:06:09 AM »
-Trump said he is going to build a wall, gets elected
-Puts a plan together to build the wall
-Democrats are defiant and hate Trump so are doing everything in their power to not allow him to build a wall
-The cost of the wall is far outweighed by the cost government shut down

Trump is giving people the ability to immigrate legally and wants to put a stop to something that is illegal. To me Trump looks like the good guy.

What are the negative effects of a wall? What is the logic behind Democrats not agreeing to fund the wall besides spite?  It seems to me like just an emotional response. Enlighten me.

For two years the Democrats had zero power to prevent the wall. Defiant??? Congress is an equal, not lesser, branch of government. The Republicans didnt give him the wall either.

Negative effects? Billions of wasted dollars. Our national debt is massive. Billions of dollars on a completely ineffective project absurd. And it's environmentally catastrophic.

We are seeing the negative effects of equality in making decisions, nothing getting done and worse things happening due to that indecision.

At least it seems practical - people are crossing the borders illegally and building a wall helps with that crime.  I don't know how it can be deemed ineffective if it hasn't been implemented yet it seems straghtforward.  I don't see how a wall more environmentally catastrophic then building a long highway or a city but I havnen't looked into it.

All decisions are going to have consequences.

I think you are overlooking the very specific campaign promise that he was going to build a wall and make Mexico pay for it. Thatís like saying youíre going to fuck someone up the ass and make the person getting fucked pay for the lube. It was an absurd promise to make.

Nobody in the republican controlled congress was willing to allocate money for a wall and other than a couple of short temper tantrum shutdowns, trump yielded on it. He had a a spending bill that did not include funds for a wall over a month ago when the the republicans still controlled congress. Now that the democrats have control of the house, he has manufactured a crisis to get simpletons riled up over nothing. Itís a vanity project at this point.

Also, the cost of a wall isnít just going to be the cost to build it. You would still have to maintain it and patrol it. Itís another money suck. You donít just build a structure, clap the dust off your hands, walk away, and never pay attention to it again.

If trump had proposed fixing our actual infrastructure like roads, bridges, sewers, water supply line replacement, and communication lines, I would absolutely get behind that and support it. But heís being a petty asshole and causing chaos so he can ďkeep the base fired upĒ.

This.  I'm all for a wall if it magically gets paid by Mexico.  That was his promise, that's what he was elected on.  Renegotiated NAFTA doesn't count. 

pecunia

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #87 on: January 19, 2019, 08:36:03 AM »
You know the Dow Jones is almost back to 25,000.   This is dandy.  Maybe, I can FIRE this Spring with no issues.

Looking at a 2018 budget pie chart, interest was 345 billion, Defense was 586 billion.  Interest will be higher this year since they gifted the rich with a tax break.

The wall will be about 20 billion.  I guess Trump is saying it will be about 15 billion.

If the wall was built the work will be done in the US by US residents and the money will stay in the US unless they subcontract the Chinese.  It will be a good pork barrel project for the border states.  It should be a good tourist attraction.  Portions of it can be dedicated to famous US war heroes.  Great art can be spray painted on the wall.  The government should be able to rent portions of it as advertisements.  (Visit Wall South Dakota and Ron Jon Surf shop)  It can be named the Great International Peace Wall or some such and flowers can be planted alongside the wall.

The money to pay for it can be borrowed from Mexican drug dealers and then the president's promise will be kept.

 It will be a good jobs program for when the bear market comes back.


BTDretire

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #88 on: January 19, 2019, 08:37:24 AM »
Regarding your Dec 26, post.
Oh, Mr Green and your crystal ball!
Please tell us the future, long and short.

BTDretire

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #89 on: January 19, 2019, 08:57:44 AM »
Of course there is 1) a skills gap for the jobs that pay well, and 2) mostly low paying jobs available.

If republicans find a way to stop illegal immigration, there will be TONS of jobs available on farms and ranches, in landscaping and housecleaning companies, and on freelance construction crews standing outside of Home Depot.  Tell your kids they don't need to go to college, there's about to be record low unemployment for anyone willing to put in hard labor for below minimum wage.
Wouldn't be surprised to learn of a serious new housing shortage, either, due to lack of labor.

More likely that there would be an excess of housing due to reduced immigration. I work in the forest industry. Aside from the current shortage of blue-collar labor, the primary concern at present is that long-term dampening of immigration, combined with slowing organic population growth, will keep new housing demand well below long-term trends. That doesn't bode well for solid wood product demand (i.e., everything but paper) which is primarily driven by new housing.
I've lived in large, urban areas with big housing growth in two states and I haven't seen a white man on a building crew in almost a decade. If most of that Hispanic labor disappeared overnight new home building would basically grind to a halt. I'm very doubtful the reduction in demand would outstrip the loss of labor.

So what exactly makes you think that those Hispanics that you see building houses are illegal immigrants? Do you think that most Hispanics are here illegally?
I didn't say they were illegal. But it's obvious the current administration would prefer no immigration, based on policy changes made that limit legal immigration. Immigration has always been one of this country's great drivers of growth. It's simply not intelligent to turn that off because you don't like the percentage of white people you see in a crowd anymore.
This week I had three Mexicans doing drywall work at my home, two of the three spoke no English, I don't know if they were illegals or not, but I do suspect they are.
 One of them accidentally erased all the Spanish Language music from his phone, so I did my best to show him an app to listen to Mexican Radio stations, I showed him a few on my phone pointed at the app and he did download it. I've had Mexican music in my home for several days now. They plug the phone into a Dewalt speaker amplifier box.

  Funny thing, my wife is all of 4'7" tall and the Mexican that speaks English it over well over 6ft and 250lbs, he was stippling the garage ceiling and ask me if it was OK, (we weren't sure what finish we wanted) I said fine with me, let me get my wife, he said no, no, please don't,
she had already given him enough trouble he didn't want anymore input from her ;-).
  She's been supervising all the crews doing work.

mastrr

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #90 on: January 19, 2019, 09:02:39 AM »
-Trump said he is going to build a wall, gets elected
-Puts a plan together to build the wall
-Democrats are defiant and hate Trump so are doing everything in their power to not allow him to build a wall
-The cost of the wall is far outweighed by the cost government shut down

Trump is giving people the ability to immigrate legally and wants to put a stop to something that is illegal. To me Trump looks like the good guy.

What are the negative effects of a wall? What is the logic behind Democrats not agreeing to fund the wall besides spite?  It seems to me like just an emotional response. Enlighten me.

For two years the Democrats had zero power to prevent the wall. Defiant??? Congress is an equal, not lesser, branch of government. The Republicans didnt give him the wall either.

Negative effects? Billions of wasted dollars. Our national debt is massive. Billions of dollars on a completely ineffective project absurd. And it's environmentally catastrophic.

We are seeing the negative effects of equality in making decisions, nothing getting done and worse things happening due to that indecision.

At least it seems practical - people are crossing the borders illegally and building a wall helps with that crime.  I don't know how it can be deemed ineffective if it hasn't been implemented yet it seems straghtforward.  I don't see how a wall more environmentally catastrophic then building a long highway or a city but I havnen't looked into it.

All decisions are going to have consequences.

I think you are overlooking the very specific campaign promise that he was going to build a wall and make Mexico pay for it. Thatís like saying youíre going to fuck someone up the ass and make the person getting fucked pay for the lube. It was an absurd promise to make.

Nobody in the republican controlled congress was willing to allocate money for a wall and other than a couple of short temper tantrum shutdowns, trump yielded on it. He had a a spending bill that did not include funds for a wall over a month ago when the the republicans still controlled congress. Now that the democrats have control of the house, he has manufactured a crisis to get simpletons riled up over nothing. Itís a vanity project at this point.

Also, the cost of a wall isnít just going to be the cost to build it. You would still have to maintain it and patrol it. Itís another money suck. You donít just build a structure, clap the dust off your hands, walk away, and never pay attention to it again.

If trump had proposed fixing our actual infrastructure like roads, bridges, sewers, water supply line replacement, and communication lines, I would absolutely get behind that and support it. But heís being a petty asshole and causing chaos so he can ďkeep the base fired upĒ.

This.  I'm all for a wall if it magically gets paid by Mexico.  That was his promise, that's what he was elected on.  Renegotiated NAFTA doesn't count.

right so its not the wall that is fundamentally opposed, it's the cost and the perception that Trump was going to send Mexico an invoice and they were going to willingly pay it.  That was what I assumed as well, but looking back it was a bad assumption given how complex negotiations can be between countries.

and it's not like the cost of the wall and maintenance of the wall will be a  sunk cost, there are other areas of our country and economy that may benefit from it.  Not to mention saftey and taking measures to uphold the law.

DavidAnnArbor

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #91 on: January 19, 2019, 11:27:08 AM »
Simply the wall won't effectively keep out illegals. Those with expertise on this issue have weighed on this already.
But Trump doesn't care about expertise, he only cares about the optics to try to maintain or gain more power.

The more important immigration issue are those seeking asylum who are fleeing death gangs/warlords  in their home countries.  And this has nothing to do with a wall.

Telecaster

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #92 on: January 19, 2019, 11:58:20 AM »

I think you are overlooking the very specific campaign promise that he was going to build a wall and make Mexico pay for it. Thatís like saying youíre going to fuck someone up the ass and make the person getting fucked pay for the lube. It was an absurd promise to make.


Best analogy in quite a while, haha.

Maenad

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #93 on: January 19, 2019, 12:24:22 PM »
It will be a good pork barrel project for the border states.

Well, other than the private citizens that own land along the border that's going to be taken by Imminent Domain, but what's a little Big Government Interference when it's a guy with an R behind his name doing it, amirite?

ysette9

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #94 on: January 19, 2019, 12:38:11 PM »
I believe I’ve read that most of the support for the wall is from people who live in states that don’t actually lie on the border. Those who are near the border are largely against the wall idea.

Back on the comment of who is the biggest taker, personally my perception is that it is the rich who end up benefiting more from the gov than the poor. In my own example there is the nice tax break for our 401k contributions, mortgage interest deduction, the ridiculously low long term capital gains rate is nothing short of a gift. We are projected to pay no federal taxes in retirement while spending $100k a year. Oh, and we should be able to get ACA subsidies on top of that. And if we spend all of our taxable accounts down to zero by the time my littles are ready to go to college, we could get federal aid for college via FASFA because retirement accounts and hour personal house don’t count towards the calculations of what parents are expected to contribute. That all blows me away.

I can definitely afford to pay 15% tax or soin retirement and pay for a ton of people to not starve via SNAPS.

ILikeDividends

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #95 on: January 19, 2019, 01:21:46 PM »
A spokesperson for Andrťs Manuel Lůpez Obrador denies leaks to the Mexican press of a secret agreement with the U.S. president to have the U.S. pay for a wall to block the flood of Canadian bacon and maple syrup cartels from illegally entering Mexico through the U.S. border.  President Obrador said, "Trump is a very strong leader, and we had a very productive meeting," but notes from the meeting are being withheld from the press, and other high level Mexican government officials have not been briefed on the meeting.  Reports of Vladimir Putin sightings in the Mexican capitol have not been confirmed.

#FakeReality
« Last Edit: January 19, 2019, 02:00:50 PM by ILikeDividends »

chasesfish

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #96 on: January 19, 2019, 04:06:17 PM »
So...about that stock market.  Nice recovery for the first three weeks of the year

BTDretire

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #97 on: January 19, 2019, 04:20:43 PM »

right so its not the wall that is fundamentally opposed, it's the cost and the perception that Trump was going to send Mexico an invoice and they were going to willingly pay it.  That was what I assumed as well, but looking back it was a bad assumption given how complex negotiations can be between countries.

and it's not like the cost of the wall and maintenance of the wall will be a  sunk cost, there are other areas of our country and economy that may benefit from it.  Not to mention saftey and taking measures to uphold the law.
  I'm a supporter of Trump and many of his policies including a boarder wall. I have no problem with immigrants, I'm married to one. But everyone should come in legally, and we should know who they are.
 As far as Mexico paying for the wall, I never thought that Mexico was going to write a check, and anyone that did think that just plain forgot to wear there thinking cap.
  It was just rhetoric concerning trade policy, plain and apparently not so simple.

BTDretire

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #98 on: January 19, 2019, 04:23:52 PM »

I think you are overlooking the very specific campaign promise that he was going to build a wall and make Mexico pay for it. Thatís like saying youíre going to fuck someone up the ass and make the person getting fucked pay for the lube. It was an absurd promise to make.


Best analogy in quite a while, haha.
Gees, I think I would want the lube, even if I did have to pay for it!

Dabnasty

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #99 on: January 19, 2019, 04:43:42 PM »

right so its not the wall that is fundamentally opposed, it's the cost and the perception that Trump was going to send Mexico an invoice and they were going to willingly pay it.  That was what I assumed as well, but looking back it was a bad assumption given how complex negotiations can be between countries.

and it's not like the cost of the wall and maintenance of the wall will be a  sunk cost, there are other areas of our country and economy that may benefit from it.  Not to mention saftey and taking measures to uphold the law.
  I'm a supporter of Trump and many of his policies including a boarder wall. I have no problem with immigrants, I'm married to one. But everyone should come in legally, and we should know who they are.
 As far as Mexico paying for the wall, I never thought that Mexico was going to write a check, and anyone that did think that just plain forgot to wear there thinking cap.
  It was just rhetoric concerning trade policy, plain and apparently not so simple.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/apps/g/page/politics/memo-explains-how-donald-trump-plans-to-pay-for-border-wall/2007/

Quote
On day 3 tell Mexico that if the Mexican government will contribute $_ Billion to the United States to pay for the wall, the Trump administration will not promulgate the final rule...

So anyone that believed what Trump explicitly said in this memo wasn't thinking? Well, actually I would agree with that.