Author Topic: Aaaaand the bear market is over  (Read 10500 times)

DreamFIRE

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #100 on: January 19, 2019, 04:44:15 PM »

right so its not the wall that is fundamentally opposed, it's the cost and the perception that Trump was going to send Mexico an invoice and they were going to willingly pay it.  That was what I assumed as well, but looking back it was a bad assumption given how complex negotiations can be between countries.

and it's not like the cost of the wall and maintenance of the wall will be a  sunk cost, there are other areas of our country and economy that may benefit from it.  Not to mention saftey and taking measures to uphold the law.
  I'm a supporter of Trump and many of his policies including a boarder wall. I have no problem with immigrants, I'm married to one. But everyone should come in legally, and we should know who they are.
 As far as Mexico paying for the wall, I never thought that Mexico was going to write a check, and anyone that did think that just plain forgot to wear there thinking cap.
  It was just rhetoric concerning trade policy, plain and apparently not so simple.

Agreed.  Illegal immigration costs the country trillions of dollars over the long run.

We don't even need Mexico to pay for the wall because the wall will pay for itself.  I think the shutdown has cost the country more than the $5 billion Trump wants for the wall.

One thing I've noticed from the left is that they always seem to assume that building a wall means all of the other enforcement mechanisms go away.  That's illogical.  The wall doesn't solve everything by itself, but it's just one important piece of the border security and immigration enforcement pie.

BTDretire

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #101 on: January 19, 2019, 05:21:06 PM »

right so its not the wall that is fundamentally opposed, it's the cost and the perception that Trump was going to send Mexico an invoice and they were going to willingly pay it.  That was what I assumed as well, but looking back it was a bad assumption given how complex negotiations can be between countries.

and it's not like the cost of the wall and maintenance of the wall will be a  sunk cost, there are other areas of our country and economy that may benefit from it.  Not to mention saftey and taking measures to uphold the law.
  I'm a supporter of Trump and many of his policies including a boarder wall. I have no problem with immigrants, I'm married to one. But everyone should come in legally, and we should know who they are.
 As far as Mexico paying for the wall, I never thought that Mexico was going to write a check, and anyone that did think that just plain forgot to wear there thinking cap.
  It was just rhetoric concerning trade policy, plain and apparently not so simple.

Agreed.  Illegal immigration costs the country trillions of dollars over the long run.

We don't even need Mexico to pay for the wall because the wall will pay for itself.  I think the shutdown has cost the country more than the $5 billion Trump wants for the wall.

One thing I've noticed from the left is that they always seem to assume that building a wall means all of the other enforcement mechanisms go away.  That's illogical.  The wall doesn't solve everything by itself, but it's just one important piece of the border security and immigration enforcement pie.
At this point we have all seen the 2009 video of Schumer, he had very good a arguments for immigration reform, and now that Trump is president he wants none of it. Doesn't want Trump to get the credit.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a8z2L42qedM&t=148s
 You can watch all 4 parts with a search of
>Schumer (Part (x) of 4) - 6th Annual Immigration Law and< x= 1, 2,3 or 4.

ILikeDividends

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #102 on: January 19, 2019, 05:28:04 PM »
In my humble opinion, this stopped being about the wall last December.  It's now all about whether we want to crown Trump king, or whether we wish to remain a democratic republic with separate but equal branches of government.

The last senate voted in a spending bill that the new house has also now passed.  The will of the American people has been clearly expressed, whether you personally agree with it or not.  Now one executive, and one senate majority leader, stand in the way of the will of the people becoming law; opening up the government, so that the innocent hostages can feed their families, and get paid for work they've already done. 

How does forcing federal employees to work for free, perhaps indefinitely, somehow equal the moral high ground?  How does their suffering, our fellow citizens, further the cause of border security in whatever form it might take?

Trump is clearly saying, "surrender your democracy, or I will starve your citizens and wreck your economy."  You don't negotiate with that.  You don't split the difference with that.  You fight it like your freedom depends on it, simply because it does depend on it.

If the democrats cave now, you can expect the executive to hold federal employees hostage from here on out in order to force unilateral policy decisions down the collective throats of congress.  There is little the Democrats offer on policy decisions that I can agree with.  But they now have no choice in this shutdown matter.  They can't negotiate policy with a hostage-taker while he still holds the hostages captive; otherwise, the hostage taking will never end.

The debt limit comes up in March.  If Trump gets his way with this disgraceful budget tactic, you can bet that Trump will hold all social security recipients hostage for whatever his next vanity project is.  Social security doesn't get paid without passing a new debt limit.  Any one of you with aged relatives care to explain to them how, next April, the ongoing fight over the wall is somehow more important than them receiving their social security checks and eating?

Full disclosure, I'm a centrist with republican leanings.  But I will never forgive the Republican party for forcing me to vote a full Democratic ticket -- for the first time in my life -- in the next election.  Last month I converted from a never-Hillary voter to an anyone-but-Trump voter.   And if Mitch McConnell doesn't stop licking Trump's boots pretty damn soon, and do his job, I won't be very far at all from becoming a never-Republican voter as well.  McConnell is collecting a regular paycheck for not doing his job, while he is perfectly content to support Trump forcing federal employees to work for free, and wrecking the small businesses that depend on those federal employees spending part of their paycheck in those businesses.

</RANT>

#SaveTheDemocracyFirst
#ArgueAboutEverythingElseLater
« Last Edit: January 19, 2019, 09:29:37 PM by ILikeDividends »

pecunia

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #103 on: January 19, 2019, 09:29:09 PM »
--SNIP--

Full disclosure, I'm a centrist with republican leanings.  But I will never forgive the Republican party for forcing me to vote a full Democratic ticket -- for the first time in my life -- in the next election.  Last month I converted from a never-Hillary voter to an anyone-but-Trump voter.   And if Mitch McConnell doesn't stop licking Trump's boots pretty damn soon, and do his job, I won't be very far at all from becoming a never-Republican voter as well.  McConnell is collecting a regular paycheck for not doing his job, while he is perfectly content to support Trump forcing federal employees to work for free, and wrecking the small businesses that depend on those federal employees spending part of their paycheck in those businesses.

</RANT>

So - Who do you really blame?  Trump - Let's just say he's more than a bit erratic.  Blaming him would be like blaming a piece of furniture for being the wrong color.  McConnell - He could bust the dam, get a vote and get the country moving again.  He has led the do nothing Senate quite a while.  Has he demonstrated a willingness to help the American people?  Or - The Democrats; Politics is the art of compromise.  Is giving in to a "wall" so bad?  I am beginning to wonder if any of them put the people first.

How long would it take to build such a wall?  How long would it take to design and plan this wall?  Shouldn't this wall be studied well before construction begins?  The wall could be approved, sections built and cancelled after Trump is voted out of office in 2020.  Far less money would be spent on this wall than was agreed to be given back to the rich in the last tax cut.

ILikeDividends

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #104 on: January 19, 2019, 09:40:32 PM »
So - Who do you really blame?
Trump, first, for deciding to take American citizens hostage as a bargaining chit on a policy issue that even his own Republican government couldn't agree on last year.  And McConnell, second, for enabling that decision to continue with no end in sight.

And please, let's not dance around the fact that Trump proudly took credit for shutting the government down in front of the whole world.  It's a matter of public record, so I'm not willing to debate that fact, if that's where you want to go with this.

Quote
How long would it take to build such a wall?  How long would it take to design and plan this wall?  Shouldn't this wall be studied well before construction begins?  The wall could be approved, sections built and cancelled after Trump is voted out of office in 2020.  Far less money would be spent on this wall than was agreed to be given back to the rich in the last tax cut.
All good questions that should be decided by the duly elected legislature -- after the government is opened.

Now, a question for you.  What do any of your points have to do with wrecking the lives of American citizens, endangering food supply and food safety for all of us (Dept of Agriculture), FDA, Air Traffic Control, DHS, and border security personel, among others, who are not getting paid right now?

How does that "Make America Great Again"?

You don't compromise with someone who insists that you surrender your freedom as a precondition for negotiation.  You just don't.  That shouldn't be a red vs blue issue.  Set Trump's hostages free, and then argue to your heart's content about the wall after doing that.

I am definitely not a Democrat.  But my eyes are wide open.  Apart from a pitifully few good Republicans, Democrats are the only party standing in opposition of an overthrow of our democracy by a want-to-be dictator right now.

Trump is an existential threat.  McConnell is aiding and abetting.  Neither one of them are upholding their oath of office.  The wall might matter someday, but please agree with me, at the very least, that a wall right now most certainly isn't more important than feeding your elder relatives right now.  They will be the next Trump hostages in the not-too-distant future if you don't raise your voice in opposition of Trump's dictatorial demands right now.
« Last Edit: January 20, 2019, 05:00:51 AM by ILikeDividends »

sol

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #105 on: January 19, 2019, 10:34:13 PM »
You don't compromise with someone who insists that you surrender your freedom as a precondition for negotiation.  You just don't.  That shouldn't be a red vs blue issue.  Set Trump's hostages free, and then argue to your heart's content about the wall.

Just imagine the situation if democrats in 2008 had not won a supermajority in the Senate, and Obama had demanded that republicans pass the Affordable Care Act or else he was going to close the United States government and put a few million folks out of work.  The howls of derision from Fox would have made the current kerfuffle look like a picnic brunch.  Just the mere suggestion that a president might do such a thing would have been called treason.

pecunia

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #106 on: January 21, 2019, 05:36:52 AM »
So - Who do you really blame?
Trump, first, for deciding to take American citizens hostage as a bargaining chit on a policy issue that even his own Republican government couldn't agree on last year.  And McConnell, second, for enabling that decision to continue with no end in sight.

And please, let's not dance around the fact that Trump proudly took credit for shutting the government down in front of the whole world.  It's a matter of public record, so I'm not willing to debate that fact, if that's where you want to go with this.

Quote
How long would it take to build such a wall?  How long would it take to design and plan this wall?  Shouldn't this wall be studied well before construction begins?  The wall could be approved, sections built and cancelled after Trump is voted out of office in 2020.  Far less money would be spent on this wall than was agreed to be given back to the rich in the last tax cut.
All good questions that should be decided by the duly elected legislature -- after the government is opened.

Now, a question for you.  What do any of your points have to do with wrecking the lives of American citizens, endangering food supply and food safety for all of us (Dept of Agriculture), FDA, Air Traffic Control, DHS, and border security personel, among others, who are not getting paid right now?

How does that "Make America Great Again"?

You don't compromise with someone who insists that you surrender your freedom as a precondition for negotiation.  You just don't.  That shouldn't be a red vs blue issue.  Set Trump's hostages free, and then argue to your heart's content about the wall after doing that.

I am definitely not a Democrat.  But my eyes are wide open.  Apart from a pitifully few good Republicans, Democrats are the only party standing in opposition of an overthrow of our democracy by a want-to-be dictator right now.

Trump is an existential threat.  McConnell is aiding and abetting.  Neither one of them are upholding their oath of office.  The wall might matter someday, but please agree with me, at the very least, that a wall right now most certainly isn't more important than feeding your elder relatives right now.  They will be the next Trump hostages in the not-too-distant future if you don't raise your voice in opposition of Trump's dictatorial demands right now.

America has been running downhill for many years before Trump.  Trump is just a symptom.  He is not the disease.  Democrats will oppose Trump until their corporate masters tell them to stop.  Why they have allowed it so long is beyond me.  There must be money to be made somehow.  Same with McConnell.

I guess it is like the big tax cut they did last year.  The corporate types make money by not paying taxes and then can loan money to the government to cover the shortfall.  And you pay for their windfall.  The corporate types will be able to loan the government money to get things on track after this is over.  Corporations are probably loaning money to the families that are out of work.  I guess the country is presently being run by a sort of Aristocracy who really don't care about the ordinary people.  Trump was born with a silver spoon in his mouth so you can't expect him to understand.  McConnell has been bought for a long time.

Will it make the country "great" again?  No, but it will certainly help opportunists of some stripe who rub their hands with glee during this type of chaos.  The dogs of profit are salivating. 

What does making the country "great" really mean?  Is it great for short term opportunists?  Is it great for the military industrial complex? 

It is smart in these days to keep your eyes wide open as you are doing.

We are off track.  This is to be about the upcoming bear market.  Maybe we've still got 2019.

DS

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #107 on: January 21, 2019, 08:38:29 AM »
Bears. Beets. Battlestar Galactica.

Nicholas Carter

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #108 on: January 22, 2019, 08:44:06 AM »
Agreed.  Illegal immigration costs the country trillions of dollars over the long run.

We don't even need Mexico to pay for the wall because the wall will pay for itself.  I think the shutdown has cost the country more than the $5 billion Trump wants for the wall.
I don't think that's so clear. According to the GAO, the net cost to American governments collectively (tax receipts- services used) is somewhere between 2 and 20 billion dollars, depending on the assumptions of the source1. But according to the Texas comptroller the undocumented population of Texas (about 1/10th of the nations total) contributed 17.7 billion dollars to the states GDP through the private sector2. So we might estimate that nation-wide, the contribution to the private sector is about 170 billion dollars. Meaning that the undocumented immigrants make America a 150 billion dollar profit.
One thing I've noticed from the left is that they always seem to assume that building a wall means all of the other enforcement mechanisms go away.  That's illogical.  The wall doesn't solve everything by itself, but it's just one important piece of the border security and immigration enforcement pie.
The source I remember on this I can't find, but here's the perspective of the rest of us on the wall:
You can sort any given mile of US border into one of four categories: Walled and Staffed (there are BP agents there 24-7), Walled but Not Staffed, Not Walled but Staffed, Not Walled or Staffed.
Successful border crossings (movement across the border without arrest or being turned back) occur with basically the same frequency at Walled and Staffed and Not Walled but Staffed locations. This can be attributed to the increased pressure at the locations that have been WaS, which tend to be near cities or major border crossings.
Successful border crossings also occur similar (much lower) frequency at locations that are WNS and NWNS. The lower frequency is related to the fact that these locations tend to be more remote, more difficult to traverse, and more dangerous.
The fact that there is no notable difference between the presence or absence of a wall without staffing can be attributed to the fact that without an active BP presence, it is not particularly risky to take the time to thwart any inhibiting structure: Either tunneling under it, bridging over it, or breaking through it.
So in the absence of guards, a wall makes no difference. We can suppose that the wall makes some difference at the locations barriers already exist, but only due to the presence of BP guards.
The BP itself reports that they are struggling failing to maintain the current number of guards3, with the greatest attrition in exactly the locations that Trump wants to expand the border into. Increasing the BP presence into these areas will be more expensive, per worker, than current staffing needs. Which creates the impression that we're talking about increasing the number of miles of Walls Without Staffing, and as mentioned above, those miles of barrier aren't useful at discouraging illegal immigration.
The place that liberals want to see immigration enforcement expanded is at the source: The companies that use, and the criminal organizations that transport, undocumented immigrants and smuggled goods into the country. And those aren't jobs for Border Patrol, those are jobs for the FBI, ICE, and the Bureau of Labor. If you want bi-partisan cooperation, propose a program that anyone convicted of knowingly hiring an undocumented immigrant have their company permanently shuttered, lose the right to file a business license or be party to a business loan, or sit on any SEC-regulated board. Make the directors of areas of operations criminally, personally liable for hiring decisions in the facilities they oversee. Subject any company found to employ more than 100 undocumented immigrants to a stock moratorium: no one may buy or sell that company's stock for 90 days.
1. https://www.gao.gov/assets/230/221495.pdf
2. https://files.texaspolicy.com/uploads/2018/08/16102134/Immigration-s-Impact-on-the-Texas-Economy.pdf
3. https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/2018/07/05/trump-ordered-border-patrol-hire-agents-instead-losing

sol

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #109 on: January 22, 2019, 09:17:49 AM »
So we might estimate that nation-wide, the contribution to the private sector is about 170 billion dollars. Meaning that the undocumented immigrants make America a 150 billion dollar profit.

Even THAT is a more complex argument than I think should be necessary to convince a MAGA hat that immigrants are great.

The simple fact is that immigrants come here to work.  They want to enter into a voluntary employment contract, to perform services that benefit their US employers and thus the US economy.  Look at that hard working young man who uproots his life to go seek a better one through hard work and determination.  He has drive and initiative, and he volunteers to do shitty jobs for minimal pay.  People like him are the foundation of our economic powerhouse.

Trust fund kids are a drain on society.  They consume resources and do no meaningful work.  They're the ones dragging our economy down.

Quote
paraphrased a little:  there is no notable difference between the presence or absence of a wall without (or without) staffing

I find this argument fascinating.  So border patrol is saying that if you compare places that have BP staffing, having a wall or not makes no difference.  And if you compare places that don't have BP staffing, having a wall or not makes no difference.  There is definitely a difference between places that have BP and places that don't, and those BP agents may want a wall in those places, but it's the presence of the BP that restricts border crossing.

If that's all true, then building more wall won't help nearly as much as hiring more BP agents.  If there is no wall in a place, building a wall there without staffing it is a waste.  If there is a wall in a place, then it is useless without staff.  We currently have some unstaffed section of the border, both with and without walls, that would be more secure by adding more BP agents.  We do not have any sections of the border where adding an unstaffed wall will help.

jinga nation

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #110 on: January 22, 2019, 10:43:01 AM »
I have wondered why poor black people are rarely found doing construction, the mix of labor does seem to be as noted.
Probably maybe they aren't there. There are plenty of laborers of all skin color down here in my area. Male and female. See them on construction projects on my daily commutes.

Mississippi Mudstache

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #111 on: January 22, 2019, 12:15:49 PM »
I have wondered why poor black people are rarely found doing construction, the mix of labor does seem to be as noted.
Probably maybe they aren't there. There are plenty of laborers of all skin color down here in my area. Male and female. See them on construction projects on my daily commutes.

Yeah, seriously. Come to a construction site in the South. Guarantee you'll see people of all races working on most sites. SMFH. What a ridiculous conversation.

ChpBstrd

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #112 on: January 23, 2019, 09:31:09 AM »
What the hell is this thread even about?

EvenSteven

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #113 on: January 23, 2019, 12:21:14 PM »
Quote
What the hell is this thread even about?

Ethics in gaming journalism?

Mr. Green

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #114 on: January 23, 2019, 01:30:43 PM »
I saw an article that showed the years after market bottoms are very strong years. If the December downturn was indeed the bottom then 2019 will probably be a very nice year. Earnings are still coming in strong. Long term growth forecasts are being downgraded but I suspect a healthy part of that is just the circle jerk people are doing with the expectation of a recession because "it's time."

I continue to believe that the shock of the Great Recession was so severe that we haven't seen a total recovery from it yet. The recovery from the Great depression ran longer than a decade, and included the early 1940s, which was the greatest time to retire in the history of US equities. It included a short bear market but not recesseion. I think we're experiencing something similar with this bull market. Just my personal opinion

TL,DR; Still not seeing any signs of this imminent recession everyone is talking about.

dividendman

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #115 on: January 23, 2019, 01:55:13 PM »
Mr. Green - are you saying the bear market is over?!

Mr. Green

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #116 on: January 23, 2019, 02:26:33 PM »
Mr. Green - are you saying the bear market is over?!
Did you read the thread title? lol

Nicholas Carter

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #117 on: January 24, 2019, 08:38:41 AM »
TL,DR; Still not seeing any signs of this imminent recession everyone is talking about.
From 2016 to now, the unemployment rate decreased by 1.2%, while the labor force participation rate only increased by 0.4%. For every one unemployed person who got a job, there were two who fell off unemployment and are still jobless. In the final quarter of 2018, inflation-adjusted wages actually decreased, because there was more inflation than wage growth. Inflation-adjusted wages for the year were up only modestly, due to a rate of change that started higher and decreased throughout the year until it was negative. Much of the action in the fall involved trying to stock up inventories in preparation for the Trump tariffs set to go into effect in March, but even if they get delayed again we can expect some decrease in supplier sales as that inventory is wound down. Consumer debt ticked up very, very slightly, but that may suggest that we aren't going to see any more decreases in the debt/income ratio, and it's still at 90% of income.
I don't think that's enough to say that a severe recession is coming, but I would lend more credence than normal that we might see -.1 to -1 gdp change in the next six months.

pecunia

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #118 on: January 24, 2019, 12:07:03 PM »
TL,DR; Still not seeing any signs of this imminent recession everyone is talking about.
From 2016 to now, the unemployment rate decreased by 1.2%, while the labor force participation rate only increased by 0.4%. For every one unemployed person who got a job, there were two who fell off unemployment and are still jobless. In the final quarter of 2018, inflation-adjusted wages actually decreased, because there was more inflation than wage growth. Inflation-adjusted wages for the year were up only modestly, due to a rate of change that started higher and decreased throughout the year until it was negative. Much of the action in the fall involved trying to stock up inventories in preparation for the Trump tariffs set to go into effect in March, but even if they get delayed again we can expect some decrease in supplier sales as that inventory is wound down. Consumer debt ticked up very, very slightly, but that may suggest that we aren't going to see any more decreases in the debt/income ratio, and it's still at 90% of income.
I don't think that's enough to say that a severe recession is coming, but I would lend more credence than normal that we might see -.1 to -1 gdp change in the next six months.

Nick:  This is a good example of looking beyond the good economic news about employment that is constantly trumpeted.  And,..you didn't even mention the government shutdown that could serve as a big hard slam to the economy.  Do I hear that bear rustling in the woods?

Mr. Green

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #119 on: January 24, 2019, 04:06:44 PM »
I remember reading a big article more than a year ago discussing why the labor force participation rate percentage may become a less useful statistic. The aging baby boomer population means more elderly people, as a percentage of the population, than we've ever had before, and with the rise in the percentage of women participating in the workforce, we're seeing a tick down in the percentage of men. All of these things don't necessarily have anything to do with economics, just shifting demographics that may simply mean comparing the current number to the old standard might not be as relevant anymore. Of course that's just one number in a sea of economic indicators. The biggest of which standing out to me is that the Christmas retail season was the best in 6 years. As consumer spending goes, so goes the economy.

MissNancyPryor

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Re: Aaaaand the bear market is over
« Reply #120 on: January 24, 2019, 05:44:06 PM »
I have wondered why poor black people are rarely found doing construction, the mix of labor does seem to be as noted.
Probably maybe they aren't there. There are plenty of laborers of all skin color down here in my area. Male and female. See them on construction projects on my daily commutes.

Yeah, seriously. Come to a construction site in the South. Guarantee you'll see people of all races working on most sites. SMFH. What a ridiculous conversation.

Maybe it is a west coast thing, mostly Latino here.  I should have clarified that it is what I see out here.  Regionally we do have a lot of large crop harvesting here (potatoes, apples, onions) that also attract Latino labor and maybe there are changing opportunities that shift some to construction with the weather.   
« Last Edit: January 24, 2019, 05:47:02 PM by MissNancyPryor »