Yeah, forgive us for being skeptical but this forum has been littered with naysayers and doomsday predictions since before I joined in 2014. They have all been wrong every single time and I'm so much better off financially speaking for having ignored them that I could weather just about anything the stock market does, even if this time actually is different and we are up against an unprecedented recession. I'm going to listen to the rich and retired that have advised me to stay the course.
I'm sorry, but this isn't 'hey guys I think stocks are over valued, top is in tuck yuck'.
It's 'hey look guys, the factories in China have been at a standstill for over two months, millions of people are being quarantined, businesses are seeing steep declines. Infections are spreading uncontrolled and even actively unmonitored in the U.S. due to incompetent leadership. Oh and the markets were already softening before all that'.
Two completely different things.
Sorry but it's exactly the same thing, only a slightly different flavor this time. You're not blindly saying stocks are too expensive, but you are saying
this time it's different for
reasons. The reasons always sound plausible as you are living through them. We've had recessions, depressions, diseases, terrorism, multiple wars, etc and everything keeps on chugging.
There are dozens of charts just like that one. If the forum had been around I guarantee we'd have threads on every single one of those reasons (and many more) all explaining how this
time it's different. It's never different! Everything keeps on chugging! We may get beat up short term. I think the economic effects of this are going to be real, but I think it's absurd to claim that it's truly different and unprecedented and you should move your long term money out of stocks and try to time the market. You can't time the market, and neither can I. You might get lucky though. If people are perpetually predicting a recession and a drop in stock prices someone is bound to be right eventually, so maybe it's you?
I can't time the market. I don't know where it's going tomorrow, or next month, or next year. But I feel very confident that in 10 years the coronavirus will be a distant memory and the prices of the indices will be higher than they are today. I'm betting my entire retirement on it.