The problem is it takes a few years to know if the claims are true. I have seen a large number of LED signs and traffic lights with dead pixels. Some have a significant number
Yep. LEDs are a lot more susceptible to power spikes (say, from a nearby lightning strike) than tungsten. I'm not going to bank on the LED bulb lasting 22 years.
Even neglecting that concern:
My marginal power costs are just under $0.10/kWh, and CFL prices are more like $1.50 each at Costco. Plug those numbers in, and CFLs come out cheaper than the Cree LED bulbs (at 3 hrs/day use, for that number of years)
Then we start talking about the time value of money - there will be inflation, and the LED scenario requires more up-front spending of current dollars.
Next I suppose I should get out the Kill-a-Watt and measure the actual power draw.
That said, I'm not totally down on LED bulbs - as I just posted in another thread, I've bought a couple of the Cree bulbs, and I like them. However, they are in high-usage places. With current costs, I can't see wholesale replacement for me anytime soon.
Edit: This thread did inspire me to go remove bulbs from some multibulb fixtures. Lets see if she notices!