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Taxes / Re: Estimating Roth Conversions - How close to get?
« Last post by SeattleCPA on Today at 03:27:21 PM »Specifically on the top tier IRMAA adjustment number, since that's one that I specifically wonder about: I am compounding $384.30 + $74.2 = $458.50 per month for IRMAA Part B and Part D at 7.7% annually for 40 years which gives me a result of $8,911.84 per month. I'd appreciate anyone checking my math. Again, my understanding is that the IRMAA brackets are adjusted by CPI or similar, but IRMAA premiums are adjusted by Medicare costs.
So first know (or hear again) that I have a ton of respect for your tax skills and financial analytical skills. You've displayed those a ton over the years. Or longer. :-)
But to address the issue of adjusting the IRMAA bump for inflation--and I don't have your spreadsheet's formulas--but it seems like you'd want to check your inflation adjustments on the tax brackets too. I.e., at some point, if one assumes that medical costs just continue to increase at a rate two or three times the general inflation rate, it seems like they become such a big component of everybody's spending that the overall inflation rate should be adjusted by a way higher number too. I.e., that medicare inflation and general price level information should converge. Practically, not sure how you address that in a spreadsheet. But it seems like you need to model either a lower IRMAA "inflation rate" or a higher tax-bracket "inflation rate."
FWIW I do think (and this is another tricky issue) that it makes sense to assume the current tax laws apply. Mostly because it's so hard to predict what'll happen. And that means assuming the current rates expire in 2026 and return to the pre-2018 rates... but with inflation adjustments so all of those amounts move steadily higher.
I won't keep drawing out my commenting in this thread, but I think I think Roth-style accounts work more poorly than many here do because:
1. I'm assuming low-ish real rates of return going forward. E.g., like Vanguard's forecasts.
2. I think one has other good ways to avoid RMD troubles. (Tax efficient taxable accounts work really well for some people.)
3. I worry more about other things (sequence of returns risk) than I do about RMDs or paying IRMAAs.