Not what I would have expected.
The water is VERY high up on the wall given the overhang and very basic roof profile... and agree it's coming out at a joint.
Nothing definitive... but a few possibilities:
This may be a roof problem. A hole about 2 feet up the roof would penetrate to the roof sheathing, and could run down the inside of that sheathing for a some distance before it drops off. If it does so over the early part of the soffit, it may provide a path for the water to flow directly behind the siding right at the top. A look inside the attic might help determine if it's dry.
This may also be a combination of a few things, including a gutter issue (are the gutters cleaned regularly?). The section of siding where the dripping occurs leads directly to a window on the left side of the picture. It abuts that window right at a potentially awkward height. The white trim on the window (called J-channel) is used to help make the window water tight. To do that in the way it's done on your house, there should be a 1 to 2" tab folding off the top section above that window. There should also be a gap from the siding to the side J-channel (maybe 1/4"). If the siding is too tight the water is encouraged to go behind the siding. Alternatively, if that tab is a bit less than 90 degrees, it could be directing water directly behind that piece of siding. HOWEVER, there's little reason for water to be that high on the house in the first place, so it still indicates some other issue that is getting water behind the siding very high on the house (but it might be over the window and not over where you see the drip)
Also, is this a low spot in the gutter that pools water? The exact profile is hard to see from the ground, but he shadows make that a possibility.
Do you have a sufficient drip edge off the siding to ensure water is going into the gutters? Are there gutter guards that are causing water to run over the guard and over the edge of the gutter? Is water flowing between the gutter and the fascia? (Your drip edge may not be sufficient and you need gutter flashing)
Unfortunately a bunch of things to investigate, and simulating rain may help. When you simulate rain, never point the hose up directly at the house - the house is not designed to prevent water coming from that direction. Always have the water traveling down when it hits the house.