Author Topic: Recession coming...  (Read 26114 times)

RWD

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Re: Recession coming...
« Reply #100 on: March 02, 2019, 09:48:06 AM »
Funny, this thread started in 2017, it's 2019 - still waiting for this recession...  Are we there yet?  Are we there yet?

This thread predates my switch to using notifications instead of new replies so I'm a little late noticing the thread necro. The SP500 is up ~15% plus dividends since then. Thanks for the fear mongering, MMM... But now I'm sure we're really due for a recession, right?

BTDretire

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Re: Recession coming...
« Reply #101 on: April 09, 2019, 09:17:31 AM »
Funny, this thread started in 2017, it's 2019 - still waiting for this recession...  Are we there yet?  Are we there yet?

This thread predates my switch to using notifications instead of new replies so I'm a little late noticing the thread necro. The SP500 is up ~15% plus dividends since then. Thanks for the fear mongering, MMM... But now I'm sure we're really due for a recession, right?

  Well? https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/08/the-stock-market-is-poised-to-overtake-its-record-high-set-back-in-september.html

RWD

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Re: Recession coming...
« Reply #102 on: April 10, 2019, 12:11:24 PM »
Just let me know when the top is in

SwordGuy

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Re: Recession coming...
« Reply #103 on: April 10, 2019, 01:26:16 PM »
All those things are not entirely true or in any event somewhat stereotyped.  Education doesn't have to be more expensive (community college, living at home or w roommates, going to secondary schools) but it is more expensive if you live in luxury student housing and you go to an overpriced school with a BS degree that doesn't translate into a cost appropriate salary.

Homes are ONLY more expensive in gateway markets (SF, NYC, Boston, etc) but this applies to everyone that lives in these areas regardless of age - go to other markets (even just going to the suburbs of the aforementioned markets makes a huge difference) and homes are actually a bargain but the jobs may be less robust.

Healthcare applies to everyone, at least the millennials could stay on parents insurance until 26 so that helped. 

I think the bigger issue is that millenials should be subcatoregized into urban vs. suburban/rural as I think most of the spendy stereotype issues that come up seem to be related more to urban dwelling residents. I know plenty of millennials, even of the younger range, that own houses and cars, have started families, and seem to be financial prudent but they all are in the suburbs - Those in the city not so much.

As usual, it comes down to choices more than anything else.

You're right! College can be so cheap if you do all those things that Boomers never had to do to afford college! ... ... Also, the fact that you can't pay for a year's worth of college based on a summer's worth of work (barring outliers, naturally, because they're outliers and not the average) means that the cost of college tuition has gone up far faster than the price of a person's labor. So, you're wrong.


Fees at University of North Carolina at Pembroke for a year.


Minimum Cost for Full-Time Undergraduate   
                   In-State      Out-of-State
Full Year Tuition  $1,000.00    $5,000.00
Full Year Fees     $2,417.28    $2,417.28
Room and Board     $9,116.00    $9,116.00
Health Insurance   $2,623.00    $2,623.00

If local to the area and living with parents: drop the $9,116 for room and board.

If on parent's health insurance, drop the $2,623 for insurance.

So, basically, an in-state local student could graduate for LESS than the cost of a CHEAP new car!
An in-state non-local student could do so for about $50,000.   Subtract out $24,000 from working 20hrs/wk 40 wks per year and 30hrs/wk the remaining 12 wks per year and we're talking less than the AVERAGE new car price.
Being out of state would only add $16,000 to that cost.

Yeah, I'm pretty sure I could earn $3,418 dollars in a year.    Hey, I actually earned MORE at $3.65 minimum wage back in the 70s when I went to college.  Then again, like most students I knew back in the 70s, I worked all year long.    I know more students today who have NEVER EVER held a job than I did when I attended college.

If I remember correctly, 5 different UNC campuses have this cost structure.

For those who could afford this cost structure with room and board included, there are many other campuses where the tuition is higher, but the college is local so the room and board cost drops by staying at home. 

College does not have to be an expensive choice.  It's just that many people choose to make it so.
« Last Edit: April 21, 2019, 08:57:18 PM by SwordGuy »

DarkandStormy

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Re: Recession coming...
« Reply #104 on: April 21, 2019, 08:39:40 PM »
Really a pretty poor article (prediction-wise) from MMM.

Imma

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Re: Recession coming...
« Reply #105 on: Today at 02:37:17 AM »
In my country, a government agency publishes a really nice visual of where we are in the current economic cycle. We are definitely heading towards recession, but we're certainly not there yet and could possibly recover.

https://www.cbs.nl/nl-nl/visualisaties/conjunctuurklok

The website is in Dutch but red means below long-term average, yellow is growing, green is above long term average and orange is declining growth. Every dot represents one marker of the state of the economy (for example, unemployment, consumer trust etc). You can scroll back 20 years and compare the different months. Right now while the labour market is doing well in our country, consumers trust in the market is low and consumption is therefore slowing down as well. I think this mostly has to do with political unrest in Europe, people are scared of the future. Hopefully this will settle down a bit.

dougules

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Re: Recession coming...
« Reply #106 on: Today at 10:54:14 AM »
Really a pretty poor article (prediction-wise) from MMM.

Why do you say that?  There IS a recession coming.  There's no implication that it's going to start tomorrow or even in the next few years.  But it is coming at some point. 

Telecaster

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Re: Recession coming...
« Reply #107 on: Today at 10:58:07 AM »
^ Spot on.  There is a stock market crash coming too.   

markbike528CBX

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Re: Recession coming...
« Reply #108 on: Today at 12:04:22 PM »
^ Spot on.  There is a stock market crash coming too.
At least a correction on 12/26/18!  Excellent call!