Author Topic: Recession coming...  (Read 28599 times)

RWD

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Re: Recession coming...
« Reply #100 on: March 02, 2019, 09:48:06 AM »
Funny, this thread started in 2017, it's 2019 - still waiting for this recession...  Are we there yet?  Are we there yet?

This thread predates my switch to using notifications instead of new replies so I'm a little late noticing the thread necro. The SP500 is up ~15% plus dividends since then. Thanks for the fear mongering, MMM... But now I'm sure we're really due for a recession, right?

BTDretire

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Re: Recession coming...
« Reply #101 on: April 09, 2019, 09:17:31 AM »
Funny, this thread started in 2017, it's 2019 - still waiting for this recession...  Are we there yet?  Are we there yet?

This thread predates my switch to using notifications instead of new replies so I'm a little late noticing the thread necro. The SP500 is up ~15% plus dividends since then. Thanks for the fear mongering, MMM... But now I'm sure we're really due for a recession, right?

  Well? https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/08/the-stock-market-is-poised-to-overtake-its-record-high-set-back-in-september.html

RWD

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Re: Recession coming...
« Reply #102 on: April 10, 2019, 12:11:24 PM »
Just let me know when the top is in

SwordGuy

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Re: Recession coming...
« Reply #103 on: April 10, 2019, 01:26:16 PM »
All those things are not entirely true or in any event somewhat stereotyped.  Education doesn't have to be more expensive (community college, living at home or w roommates, going to secondary schools) but it is more expensive if you live in luxury student housing and you go to an overpriced school with a BS degree that doesn't translate into a cost appropriate salary.

Homes are ONLY more expensive in gateway markets (SF, NYC, Boston, etc) but this applies to everyone that lives in these areas regardless of age - go to other markets (even just going to the suburbs of the aforementioned markets makes a huge difference) and homes are actually a bargain but the jobs may be less robust.

Healthcare applies to everyone, at least the millennials could stay on parents insurance until 26 so that helped. 

I think the bigger issue is that millenials should be subcatoregized into urban vs. suburban/rural as I think most of the spendy stereotype issues that come up seem to be related more to urban dwelling residents. I know plenty of millennials, even of the younger range, that own houses and cars, have started families, and seem to be financial prudent but they all are in the suburbs - Those in the city not so much.

As usual, it comes down to choices more than anything else.

You're right! College can be so cheap if you do all those things that Boomers never had to do to afford college! ... ... Also, the fact that you can't pay for a year's worth of college based on a summer's worth of work (barring outliers, naturally, because they're outliers and not the average) means that the cost of college tuition has gone up far faster than the price of a person's labor. So, you're wrong.


Fees at University of North Carolina at Pembroke for a year.


Minimum Cost for Full-Time Undergraduate   
                   In-State      Out-of-State
Full Year Tuition  $1,000.00    $5,000.00
Full Year Fees     $2,417.28    $2,417.28
Room and Board     $9,116.00    $9,116.00
Health Insurance   $2,623.00    $2,623.00

If local to the area and living with parents: drop the $9,116 for room and board.

If on parent's health insurance, drop the $2,623 for insurance.

So, basically, an in-state local student could graduate for LESS than the cost of a CHEAP new car!
An in-state non-local student could do so for about $50,000.   Subtract out $24,000 from working 20hrs/wk 40 wks per year and 30hrs/wk the remaining 12 wks per year and we're talking less than the AVERAGE new car price.
Being out of state would only add $16,000 to that cost.

Yeah, I'm pretty sure I could earn $3,418 dollars in a year.    Hey, I actually earned MORE at $3.65 minimum wage back in the 70s when I went to college.  Then again, like most students I knew back in the 70s, I worked all year long.    I know more students today who have NEVER EVER held a job than I did when I attended college.

If I remember correctly, 5 different UNC campuses have this cost structure.

For those who could afford this cost structure with room and board included, there are many other campuses where the tuition is higher, but the college is local so the room and board cost drops by staying at home. 

College does not have to be an expensive choice.  It's just that many people choose to make it so.
« Last Edit: April 21, 2019, 08:57:18 PM by SwordGuy »

DarkandStormy

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Re: Recession coming...
« Reply #104 on: April 21, 2019, 08:39:40 PM »
Really a pretty poor article (prediction-wise) from MMM.

Imma

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Re: Recession coming...
« Reply #105 on: April 22, 2019, 02:37:17 AM »
In my country, a government agency publishes a really nice visual of where we are in the current economic cycle. We are definitely heading towards recession, but we're certainly not there yet and could possibly recover.

https://www.cbs.nl/nl-nl/visualisaties/conjunctuurklok

The website is in Dutch but red means below long-term average, yellow is growing, green is above long term average and orange is declining growth. Every dot represents one marker of the state of the economy (for example, unemployment, consumer trust etc). You can scroll back 20 years and compare the different months. Right now while the labour market is doing well in our country, consumers trust in the market is low and consumption is therefore slowing down as well. I think this mostly has to do with political unrest in Europe, people are scared of the future. Hopefully this will settle down a bit.

dougules

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Re: Recession coming...
« Reply #106 on: April 22, 2019, 10:54:14 AM »
Really a pretty poor article (prediction-wise) from MMM.

Why do you say that?  There IS a recession coming.  There's no implication that it's going to start tomorrow or even in the next few years.  But it is coming at some point. 

Telecaster

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Re: Recession coming...
« Reply #107 on: April 22, 2019, 10:58:07 AM »
^ Spot on.  There is a stock market crash coming too.   

markbike528CBX

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Re: Recession coming...
« Reply #108 on: April 22, 2019, 12:04:22 PM »
^ Spot on.  There is a stock market crash coming too.
At least a correction on 12/26/18!  Excellent call!

talltexan

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Re: Recession coming...
« Reply #109 on: April 24, 2019, 07:46:05 AM »
I'll confess I took a lot of satisfaction in December 2018 that I'd been so focused on debt reduction instead of putting money into the market only to have it go down.

Unfortunately, I've continued on debt reduction since then, so now I'm...less satisfied.

dougules

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Re: Recession coming...
« Reply #110 on: April 24, 2019, 03:52:07 PM »
I'll confess I took a lot of satisfaction in December 2018 that I'd been so focused on debt reduction instead of putting money into the market only to have it go down.

Unfortunately, I've continued on debt reduction since then, so now I'm...less satisfied.

Despite what some folks here might say, you win either way. 

sol

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Re: Recession coming...
« Reply #111 on: April 24, 2019, 04:03:01 PM »
Just for the record, the index is now up over 20% since this thread was started.  At this point, we could have a pretty gnarly recession and still come out financially ahead of someone who tried to time the market based on the information in this thread.

RWD

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Re: Recession coming...
« Reply #112 on: April 24, 2019, 04:06:55 PM »
Just for the record, the index is now up over 20% since this thread was started.  At this point, we could have a pretty gnarly recession and still come out financially ahead of someone who tried to time the market based on the information in this thread.

You mean the information in MMM's blog post, right? As the thread starter I'd hate to be mistaken for someone who called a recession.

Telecaster

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Re: Recession coming...
« Reply #113 on: April 24, 2019, 04:31:03 PM »
Just for the record, the index is now up over 20% since this thread was started.  At this point, we could have a pretty gnarly recession and still come out financially ahead of someone who tried to time the market based on the information in this thread.

You mean the information in MMM's blog post, right? As the thread starter I'd hate to be mistaken for someone who called a recession.

I think you may have missed MMM's point.   Or at least his point as I understood it.   He said straight up he did not know when the recession was coming, just that one is coming.   

I'll co-sign that statement all day long.  Same with the notion that a stock market crash is coming.  I abso-fucking-lutey guarantee the stock market will crash.  No idea when, but it will happen.   

The point is to be prepared mentally and financially for those events, because they absolutely will happen.   

dragoncar

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Re: Recession coming...
« Reply #114 on: April 24, 2019, 06:28:29 PM »
Just for the record, the index is now up over 20% since this thread was started.  At this point, we could have a pretty gnarly recession and still come out financially ahead of someone who tried to time the market based on the information in this thread.

You mean the information in MMM's blog post, right? As the thread starter I'd hate to be mistaken for someone who called a recession.

I think you may have missed MMM's point.   Or at least his point as I understood it.   He said straight up he did not know when the recession was coming, just that one is coming.   



I think RWD understood that point given the content of the original post

RWD

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Re: Recession coming...
« Reply #115 on: April 25, 2019, 06:23:09 AM »
Just for the record, the index is now up over 20% since this thread was started.  At this point, we could have a pretty gnarly recession and still come out financially ahead of someone who tried to time the market based on the information in this thread.

You mean the information in MMM's blog post, right? As the thread starter I'd hate to be mistaken for someone who called a recession.

I think you may have missed MMM's point.   Or at least his point as I understood it.   He said straight up he did not know when the recession was coming, just that one is coming.

I think RWD understood that point given the content of the original post

Yes, thank you dragoncar. Of course I understood it. I'm still worried about it causing people to overreact either just based on the title alone or certain lines such as these:
Quote
With all those preparations in progress, I hope youíre ready, because thereís a recession on the way.
Quote
So weíve had a good run. If we go on to tie the Clinton-era record, that still gives us a maximum of two years until the trouble hits.

SwordGuy

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Re: Recession coming...
« Reply #116 on: April 25, 2019, 06:40:40 AM »


You can't really prevent people from missing the point no matter how clearly you write.   The proof is in this thread.

RWD

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Re: Recession coming...
« Reply #117 on: April 25, 2019, 07:16:13 AM »
You can't really prevent people from missing the point no matter how clearly you write.   The proof is in this thread.
Yup...

Despite MMM's best intentions we still get threads like this one:
Hi fellow mustachians! Iím a long time reader and follower, and first time poster. Iíd love your thoughts on my situation. I agree with MMM that a recession or market correction is coming soon. I live in an expensive coastal city, where Iíve been renting for years. Iíd like to buy a house at some point in the next few years, and Iíd love for it to be when that recession is in full swing.

DarkandStormy

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Re: Recession coming...
« Reply #118 on: May 01, 2019, 07:29:00 PM »
Really a pretty poor article (prediction-wise) from MMM.

Why do you say that?  There IS a recession coming.  There's no implication that it's going to start tomorrow or even in the next few years.  But it is coming at some point.

From the article...

Quote
Itís a lot easier to fix your problems right now, with a stiff economic tailwind at your back, than it will be in just a couple of short years (or less?) when the high seas and lighting bolts and whirlpools are ripping at your pockets.

Quote
So weíve had a good run. If we go on to tie the Clinton-era record, that still gives us a maximum of two years until the trouble hits.

DarkandStormy

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Re: Recession coming...
« Reply #119 on: May 01, 2019, 07:34:18 PM »
I think you may have missed MMM's point.   Or at least his point as I understood it.   He said straight up he did not know when the recession was coming, just that one is coming.   

I'll co-sign that statement all day long.  Same with the notion that a stock market crash is coming.  I abso-fucking-lutey guarantee the stock market will crash.  No idea when, but it will happen.   

The point is to be prepared mentally and financially for those events, because they absolutely will happen.

Cool.  A stock market and economic boom are also coming.  What's the purpose of stating this point?

He litters in some Zero Hedge garbage with vague guesses ("couple of short years (or less?) when the high seas and lightning bolts and whirlpools are ripping your pockets" and "that still gives us a maximum of two years until the trouble hits").  I'm not saying MMM was trying to predict when the recession would hit, but he clearly hinted that it would be "soon" or within 2-3 years.  If his point is you don't know when the recession will come why is he throwing in these predictions at all?

SwordGuy

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Re: Recession coming...
« Reply #120 on: May 02, 2019, 07:15:06 AM »
If his point is you don't know when the recession will come why is he throwing in these predictions at all?

Because after years of supplying brilliantly written and useful material, he managed to slip in a few less-than-perfectly-formed sentences to make his point.   Jeesh.    Sometimes people on this site forget we're not parsing out the red-letter words in the New Testament for their full meaning...

dragoncar

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Re: Recession coming...
« Reply #121 on: May 02, 2019, 09:49:25 AM »
He thought it would be sooner, which I think was a reasonable guess,  ut he was clear that he couldnít predict anything.  The point is not to get killed into thinking the bull will last forever and to always be prepared for a downturn.  This is good advice.

Has it even been 2-4 years yet?  He could still be right

SisterX

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Re: Recession coming...
« Reply #122 on: May 02, 2019, 11:04:01 AM »
He thought it would be sooner, which I think was a reasonable guess,  ut he was clear that he couldnít predict anything.  The point is not to get killed into thinking the bull will last forever and to always be prepared for a downturn.  This is good advice.

Has it even been 2-4 years yet?  He could still be right

It's been almost 2 years (in June). Considering all the uncertainties in the world currently, and the timeline (such a long boom time), and all the indicators (inversions and credit ratings and debt, oh my!) it wouldn't be at all if a recession started...basically anytime. I'm even increasingly reading articles about major investors and huge companies that are preparing for a recession to start either this year or next.

I'm not saying this because we should do anything differently, really. Wasn't stay the course and be prepared sort of what the article was getting at? That was my takeaway, anyway, for those of us who are already generally pretty frugal. Plus, a long lead-up and preparation time is ideal, because we can be even more frugal and put more away "just in case".