Author Topic: Money and Confidence are Interchangeable  (Read 8349 times)

SugarMountain

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Money and Confidence are Interchangeable
« on: March 12, 2018, 05:13:04 PM »
Reading MMM's latest, I found I had a nagging feeling that Pete is exhibiting a lot of selection bias in this post. "I'm doing so great, I didn't even need to work as long as I did as an engineer."  While his optimism is contagious, I do wonder if it's a bit dangerous.  Not everyone is good at multiple things.  In addition to being a good engineer, he's good at carpentry, writing, fitness, and making friends wherever he might be dropped.

"They wonder when, if ever, they’ll be able to quit. When really, the problem is not the money, it’s the confidence. With confidence, they could quit right now."

Well, that assumes they want to continue working after they quit.  All of Pete's examples of why he should have had more confidence and could have quit sooner involve working (writing a blog, doing carpentry, and even commercial real estate investment are work.)  And while those might be more fun that being an engineer, probably become less fun when they are being done full time and to pay the bills.

"I will always be able to get a job if I need one."  Uh, sure.  Nobody, especially 50-60 years has ever struggled to ever find a job.

"I am in control of my cost of living. Everything I do is a decision, and it’s made by me, not the world around me."  Maybe.  But not entirely, particularly when it comes to healthcare in the US, as he recently wrote about.

"I can always make friends." Uh, sure.  Pete can.  Doesn't mean everybody can.

I'm sure I'll be told I'm being part of the Internet Retirement Police and a complainy pants for even bringing this up.  But, I really didn't get the point of this week's post.  It just seemed like he's saying he could have quit his engineering job sooner because he's good enough at other things to survive and because things have gone swimmingly for him since retirement, he's got tremendous confidence now.
« Last Edit: March 12, 2018, 05:26:54 PM by SugarMountain »

wordnerd

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Re: Money and Confidence are Interchangeable
« Reply #1 on: March 12, 2018, 05:26:14 PM »
I read it as an argument against OMY syndrome. I found it helpful in that way, since DH and I are turning off our cash-spigots in a couple of months.

But I also get what you're saying. I don't have a ton of entrepreneurial skills, just waiting to be unleashed in FIRE (though I have several financial back-up plans if needed). MMM may be more of the exception than the rule in that way. And, you're right; a lot of people don't want to work in retirement (early or otherwise).

SugarMountain

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Re: Money and Confidence are Interchangeable
« Reply #2 on: March 12, 2018, 05:30:18 PM »
I read it as an argument against OMY syndrome. I found it helpful in that way, since DH and I are turning off our cash-spigots in a couple of months.

But I also get what you're saying. I don't have a ton of entrepreneurial skills, just waiting to be unleashed in FIRE (though I have several financial back-up plans if needed). MMM may be more of the exception than the rule in that way. And, you're right; a lot of people don't want to work in retirement (early or otherwise).

Yes, it was definitely an argument against OMY.  The challenge is when OMY at your current job is going to pay you way more than any other job you'd easily be able to get. His "blog lottery" notwithstanding.  I mean, I have some modest carpentry skills, but OMY at my current job would pay the same as 3-5 years as a carpenter.  Even more true if I wanted to be a writer. (I did like the OMY hits the highest earners the hardest thread.)

SugarMountain

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Re: Money and Confidence are Interchangeable
« Reply #3 on: March 12, 2018, 05:42:06 PM »
And the other confidence issues I have are around:
- Past performance of the market is no guarantee of future performance.  The magic 4% rule is based purely on past performance and past performance of the greatest growth in productivity the world has ever seen.  Will that productivity growth continue?  I have no idea.
- Healthcare insurance costs in our 50s & 60s
- Long term assisted living in our 80s & 90s

I guess that's the thing about the extreme early retirements in your 30s.  If things go wrong, a lot of what MMM is saying may be true (finding jobs, having other skills, etc).  I'm 50.  If I retire this year and in 10 years I see that things are not going to plan and need to make corrections, finding a job at 60+ is not quite so simple.

One thing I see on this site is a lot of confidence.  I sometimes wonder if it's misplaced a bit, particularly for those who maybe have really been focused on investing in the last 10 years, which is one of the greatest bull markets ever.  Cut the market in half, see unemployment go back up near 10%, and watch healthcare costs continue to escalate at 8-10% per year and I wonder how confident people will be.  I get it that MMM and others weathered the "great recession" with no problem.  Part of why they were able to is because the market actually recovered really pretty quickly due in part to deficit spending and the stimulus packages (and Colorado was not hit nearly as hard as other areas, either with the real estate bubble or unemployment).  My lack of confidence is in part because I think we have propped up the economy that way for a long time at some point it's going to snap.  Whether that's in 1 year, 10 years, or 30 years I don't know, although I do suspect it will be in my lifetime.


Dago

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Re: Money and Confidence are Interchangeable
« Reply #4 on: March 13, 2018, 06:36:30 AM »
"I will always be able to get a job if I need one."

I think that this point is not very sensitive, if not straight offending, for the innumerable people looking desperately for a job.

If you are an engineer maybe you are fine, for now. Yet, jobs will only get more scarse and thus the market more competitive.

wordnerd

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Re: Money and Confidence are Interchangeable
« Reply #5 on: March 13, 2018, 07:29:34 AM »
"I will always be able to get a job if I need one."

I think that this point is not very sensitive, if not straight offending, for the innumerable people looking desperately for a job.

If you are an engineer maybe you are fine, for now. Yet, jobs will only get more scarse and thus the market more competitive.

It depends on what kind of job you're talking about. I'm reasonably convinced that anyone who can amass hundreds of thousands or millions of dollars early in life probably has the basic life skills to get a job like selling cars or stocking grocery shelves or working at a daycare or renting a room on AirBNB. If your expenses are low, this should be able to reduce your withdrawal rate to zero or near-zero for awhile. Or, you can retrain for a new career like teaching. If you have a healthy stache, you should be able to wait a couple of years to get the requisite training to qualify for a new career. There was a long and helpful thread recently on the types of jobs you could get in the event of a FIRE failure.



trollwithamustache

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Re: Money and Confidence are Interchangeable
« Reply #6 on: March 13, 2018, 08:26:36 AM »
Legit selection bias.

He makes real money off the blog.  I do think he is "real" retired. The blog could be far more monetized and pushed in other media than it is, so I believe him when he says its just a hobby. But the blog income sits flows in an essentially lowers his withdrawal rate, derisking his whole shebang. 

Intermittently doing something that brings in a little (relative to your current high paying job) can make huge swings in the math.

tooqk4u22

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Re: Money and Confidence are Interchangeable
« Reply #7 on: March 13, 2018, 11:11:04 AM »
I read it both as selection bias and an argument against OMY.   I would say it differently - he had a pile of fuck you money and a low cost of living (with a paid off house) that afforded him the "Confidence" to not OMY. He then did some other stuff:

- house building failed but held on to the house for rental until recovery happened and then sold it (would have been better in markets)
- wrote a blog that happened to take off bc of some good writing/ideas, eventually got bored of said blog so doesn't write that much and when he does its kind of entitled crap, but forum keeps driving traffic so that drives income (your welcome BTW). (He admits its all kind of lucky.
- has a shit ton of extra money so buys a relatively cheap commercial building to capitalize on his brand name recognition to drive low priced memberships and subsidize wife's hobby etsy store. (love both of the ideas though)

So yeah, confidence played a big initial part of this all initially but after that not so much. Its kind of like very high net worth people where they have their "investment" portfolio and then their "risk" portfolio that takes up 10% or so of their hundreds of millions and they will probably lose money on 9 out of ten deals but are in it for the one deal that will blow up and return 10x of all the deals....

 
« Last Edit: March 13, 2018, 12:19:51 PM by tooqk4u22 »

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Re: Money and Confidence are Interchangeable
« Reply #8 on: March 13, 2018, 11:22:35 AM »
The idea that you can always make new friends, always find a new job- I'm not sure I agree with that.

I've lived in Iowa for almost 15 years now. We have TONS of acquaintances; but I'm still hard pressed to say how many of those people are good friends like I still have connections to in other states. It wasn't until I moved to a higher cost of living neighborhood that I really ended up with people I can lean on for help in dire times.  We have no family near here, so in the two true emergencies we had, I was glad that we had made the move. In our previous location, despite trying to greet new people; everyone kept to themselves. We would have been alone trying to figure out how to make it work.

As for the job- so far I've been able to find jobs on all my moves (we had a few due to the air force before we landed in Iowa), jobs after layoffs, and jobs to better my position.  But I know jobs in my field won't always be easy to find. I also know it is a near miracle my husband and I both have a good job in the same location. If either of us had to relocate, that might not happen. Sure, I could probably find -A- job, but one that is fulfilling? Maybe not.  One that pays enough? Maybe not.

My biggest reason for OMY is healthcare. I'm too worried about what is to come. It wasn't my fault that I broke my neck and sustained major nerve damage as a teenager; but it is my responsibility to deal with it from now on. ACA is too unpredictable to give up employer health insurance.  And I like my job.  And while my spending is pretty low for my income, I don't know what we'll end up doing with my daughter. I want her to enjoy many of the things I did.

Just wish I had a million dollar blog.  Having had somewhat popular blogs when blogging first became a thing, I'm mad I never monetized. Especially since I specifically decided NOT to monetize.

JimmyFry

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Re: Money and Confidence are Interchangeable
« Reply #9 on: March 13, 2018, 11:43:17 AM »
Hi All, good discussion but what are "OMY" and "CBT"?  Just a newb trying to follow along :)

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Re: Money and Confidence are Interchangeable
« Reply #10 on: March 13, 2018, 12:00:20 PM »
Hi All, good discussion but what are "OMY" and "CBT"?  Just a newb trying to follow along :)

OMY is one more year.

I read CBT as cognitive behavioral therapy. But maybe I was wrong.

trollwithamustache

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Re: Money and Confidence are Interchangeable
« Reply #11 on: March 13, 2018, 01:36:09 PM »
Hi All, good discussion but what are "OMY" and "CBT"?  Just a newb trying to follow along :)

OMY is one more year.

I read CBT as cognitive behavioral therapy. But maybe I was wrong.

that makes more sense, I kept thinking it couldn't actually be Computer Based Training!

rweba

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Re: Money and Confidence are Interchangeable
« Reply #12 on: March 13, 2018, 02:15:07 PM »
I loved the article!

I interpreted it as being about adopting the mindset of a risk taker, not just clinging to what you know because of fear of the unknown.

And part of being a risk taker is acknowledging that you might fail but having the confidence that you will be able to deal with that if it happens.

Because if you don't take chances you are going to miss out on a lot of amazing things.

So the point is not whether it's literally true that "I will always be able to get a job if I need one". What is important is that adopting this mindset will lead you to a happier life because you will try more things and not just live in fear.

caracarn

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Re: Money and Confidence are Interchangeable
« Reply #13 on: March 13, 2018, 02:35:36 PM »
I agree with most of the folks here that this article was a bit of entitled arrogance and while the original MMM message was very grounded it seems each new article places Pete further and further away from everyone else. 

I do not agree with risk taking being the end all be all, as the last poster seems to.  I know a lot of people who live life taking risks saying they can always get a job when they need one, and they get to test it out a lot because they stink at anything they do and get fired and "need" another job and they find one and fail at that, but they stay rosy and optimistic while their family suffers from the inability to provide anything stable because of their lack of "risk aversion". 

I believe you need to be a bit prudent about what you can and cannot do.  Being confident is one thing, but letting that confidence guide you to taking clearly low likelihood chances on things and not having time to pick up the pieces if you crash and burn is not a solid strategy.  So I agree with those who say it is easy to write this in hindsight as he sits on a gusher of money from the blog.  It's like those people who act all bad ass only after the manager of the restaurant has told them to pipe down or they'll be booted.  They only act tough when they are sure no one who matters will hear them.  Having risen up from relatively poor circumstances to a comfortable lifestyle myself, I would say that my confidence in being able to do things absolutely grew as my safety net did, and for Pete to say that is not what occurred with him and just that he needed to take more risk and have confidence and it all would have worked out is a great outlook but following the MMM mantra, probably not optimized for reality.

ETA:  I have a friend of mine who is supremely confident and certainly would be one who feels and I also feel could get a job whenever he needed one.  And two months ago he woke up unable to speak and the found a brain tumor in his late 40s.  Still going through treatment and thought he was recovering and his wife texted me this morning that he was in the hospital since Saturday because he's having seizures and they cannot control them.  Confidence only gets you so far and assuming things will always be as they are today on the health front and your actual physical ability has some danger.
« Last Edit: March 13, 2018, 02:40:28 PM by caracarn »

SugarMountain

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Re: Money and Confidence are Interchangeable
« Reply #14 on: March 13, 2018, 02:37:58 PM »
I loved the article!

I interpreted it as being about adopting the mindset of a risk taker, not just clinging to what you know because of fear of the unknown.

And part of being a risk taker is acknowledging that you might fail but having the confidence that you will be able to deal with that if it happens.

Because if you don't take chances you are going to miss out on a lot of amazing things.

So the point is not whether it's literally true that "I will always be able to get a job if I need one". What is important is that adopting this mindset will lead you to a happier life because you will try more things and not just live in fear.

Right.  That's what I mean about selection bias though, things have worked out swimmingly for him since he retired but this does not mean that will be true for everyone.  You don't hear about failed early retirements because nobody is going to start a blog describing how they are now scraping by with menial jobs after their real estate investments blew up because they over extended themselves just before the crash and they can't find a decent job because they haven't had a real job since 2002 and nobody wants to hire a 62 year old. (There was a thread a while ago about some failed early retirements that was interesting.)  Let's be clear, it is a risk to retire early, particularly if you are counting on the 4% SWR to hold true over the next 30-50 years and retire right when your stache hits 25x spending.  While hearing about people who have successfully done that is great, recognizing that there are no guarantees is important.

I admit, it's fine line between letting fear control you and being appropriately cautious.  And I think the real problem for myself, and what induces fear is not that in 10 years I'll run out of money.  It's that it will happen in 30 years when I'll have very few options to make more money.

There was actually an interesting post or article, maybe it was somewhere on here, about actually planning for two retirements -- your regular retirement, say 70 until death and your early retirement.  I suppose one way to deal with the fear is to have things locked up for your 70+ retirement and then make sure you have enough for your early retirement.  Then if you see that your early retirement is at risk, you can find another job, control your spending, etc.

Dee

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Re: Money and Confidence are Interchangeable
« Reply #15 on: March 13, 2018, 07:54:50 PM »
I read this more as an inspiration to make career and job changes as appropriate. The word confidence could have been replaced with optimism. This post makes it all the more clear that MMM's story is not really one of early retirement, per se, as one of leaving a good paying, relatively secure career to follow less defined pursuits and see where things would lead based on personal interests and values. And to not need for those pursuits to be money makers.

JimmyFry

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Re: Money and Confidence are Interchangeable
« Reply #16 on: March 13, 2018, 11:00:16 PM »
OMY is one more year.

Thank you, makes much more sense now :)

Malkynn

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Re: Money and Confidence are Interchangeable
« Reply #17 on: March 14, 2018, 06:39:08 AM »
I’ve always said that Pete could have skipped the decade of high-paying day-job work and been just fine financially. I’m glad to see him saying now too.

I also don’t think it’s unrealistic or unfair for him to say he can always find work because he is talking about himself and he is right. He has no shortage of marketable skills that make it easy for him to find paid work. Just because Pete says something about himself doesn’t mean it’s universally applicable across all walks of life, but it also doesn’t mean that there isn’t something of value in what he’s saying, even if circumstances are drastically different.

I think there are a TON of people on this forum who are slogging it out in well paying jobs that they hate when they really don’t have to. I think this post is great because he’s finally acknowledging that he didn’t need to reach full FIRE before he started crafting his best life. I despise the notion of putting off living well until some arbitrary savings number is met.

I’m personally in drastically different circumstances that Pete. I only started working at the age that he retired. DH and I had over 400K in debt. I could have followed Pete’s model and worked a decade at my miserable ultra high paying job and wasted my entire 30s.
Instead, I took inspiration from Pete’s post-FIRE life and decided to quit my job while still in debt and focus on only doing work and projects that I love.

Like Pete, I have skills that allow me to just trust that I’ll make more than enough money in whatever I choose to do. Yes, that’s a serious privilege to have, which makes it insane to waste on being miserable at a high paying day job that sucks the life out of you.

We all take from the blog what works for us.
The “knuckle-down at a day job until FIRE” concept doesn’t work for me, so I ignore it.
The “follow your passions and make a bunch of money” part works for me but might not work for others. But the general wisdom of questioning if you *have to* stick it out with your day job is worth considering for everyone.


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Re: Money and Confidence are Interchangeable
« Reply #18 on: March 14, 2018, 07:32:06 AM »
Hi All, good discussion but what are "OMY" and "CBT"?  Just a newb trying to follow along :)

OMY is one more year.

I read CBT as cognitive behavioral therapy. But maybe I was wrong.

I originally ready computer based test due to my field of work. But I knew that was wrong :)
that makes more sense, I kept thinking it couldn't actually be Computer Based Training!

rweba

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Re: Money and Confidence are Interchangeable
« Reply #19 on: March 14, 2018, 11:03:46 AM »
I agree with most of the folks here that this article was a bit of entitled arrogance and while the original MMM message was very grounded it seems each new article places Pete further and further away from everyone else. 

I do not agree with risk taking being the end all be all, as the last poster seems to.  I know a lot of people who live life taking risks saying they can always get a job when they need one, and they get to test it out a lot because they stink at anything they do and get fired and "need" another job and they find one and fail at that, but they stay rosy and optimistic while their family suffers from the inability to provide anything stable because of their lack of "risk aversion". 

I believe you need to be a bit prudent about what you can and cannot do.  Being confident is one thing, but letting that confidence guide you to taking clearly low likelihood chances on things and not having time to pick up the pieces if you crash and burn is not a solid strategy.  So I agree with those who say it is easy to write this in hindsight as he sits on a gusher of money from the blog.  It's like those people who act all bad ass only after the manager of the restaurant has told them to pipe down or they'll be booted.  They only act tough when they are sure no one who matters will hear them.  Having risen up from relatively poor circumstances to a comfortable lifestyle myself, I would say that my confidence in being able to do things absolutely grew as my safety net did, and for Pete to say that is not what occurred with him and just that he needed to take more risk and have confidence and it all would have worked out is a great outlook but following the MMM mantra, probably not optimized for reality.

ETA:  I have a friend of mine who is supremely confident and certainly would be one who feels and I also feel could get a job whenever he needed one.  And two months ago he woke up unable to speak and the found a brain tumor in his late 40s.  Still going through treatment and thought he was recovering and his wife texted me this morning that he was in the hospital since Saturday because he's having seizures and they cannot control them.  Confidence only gets you so far and assuming things will always be as they are today on the health front and your actual physical ability has some danger.

I actually do not think we disagree that much!

I certainly do not advocate just wild happy go lucky risk-taking.

I am thinking more of something like this:

Option 1: You can stay in your current job where you have a 100% chance of making $100,000 but also being miserable.

Option 2: You can open a consulting business where you have a 50% chance of making $100,000, a 30% chance of making $200,000 and 20% chance of making $50,000

The expected income in the second scenario is about $127,000 (.5 * 100K + .3*200K + .2* 50K) and an average outcome of being happier.

There is some evidence from psychological studies to suggest that most people are too risk-averse and would just choose to stick with what they know in this scenario despite the realistic possibility of being richer and happier if they took a bit of a risk.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Risk_aversion_(psychology)

So we're talking about calculated risk-taking, with ample preparation and realistic evaluation of the options, not just throwing caution to the winds and doing whatever you feel like.

This is what I interpreted MMM to be talking about when he talks about confidence (e.g. in the example above, even in the "bad" scenario of "only" making 50K, you won't be thrilled about it but you'll probably survive and there's a good chance you can eventually figure out a way how to get back to your old income).

And the entire idea of FIRE is always a bit of a risk. It's almost always going to be the safer option to keep working and keep adding to the stash.

rweba

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Re: Money and Confidence are Interchangeable
« Reply #20 on: March 14, 2018, 11:18:46 AM »
I loved the article!

I interpreted it as being about adopting the mindset of a risk taker, not just clinging to what you know because of fear of the unknown.

And part of being a risk taker is acknowledging that you might fail but having the confidence that you will be able to deal with that if it happens.

Because if you don't take chances you are going to miss out on a lot of amazing things.

So the point is not whether it's literally true that "I will always be able to get a job if I need one". What is important is that adopting this mindset will lead you to a happier life because you will try more things and not just live in fear.

Right.  That's what I mean about selection bias though, things have worked out swimmingly for him since he retired but this does not mean that will be true for everyone.  You don't hear about failed early retirements because nobody is going to start a blog describing how they are now scraping by with menial jobs after their real estate investments blew up because they over extended themselves just before the crash and they can't find a decent job because they haven't had a real job since 2002 and nobody wants to hire a 62 year old. (There was a thread a while ago about some failed early retirements that was interesting.)  Let's be clear, it is a risk to retire early, particularly if you are counting on the 4% SWR to hold true over the next 30-50 years and retire right when your stache hits 25x spending.  While hearing about people who have successfully done that is great, recognizing that there are no guarantees is important.

I admit, it's fine line between letting fear control you and being appropriately cautious.  And I think the real problem for myself, and what induces fear is not that in 10 years I'll run out of money.  It's that it will happen in 30 years when I'll have very few options to make more money.

There was actually an interesting post or article, maybe it was somewhere on here, about actually planning for two retirements -- your regular retirement, say 70 until death and your early retirement.  I suppose one way to deal with the fear is to have things locked up for your 70+ retirement and then make sure you have enough for your early retirement.  Then if you see that your early retirement is at risk, you can find another job, control your spending, etc.

I don't really disagree with anything you said here.

I would just add that you that have to look at the other side as well: people who stayed in miserable situations for decades when they had a realistic chance to get out because they were afraid of what "might" happen and hence ended up missing out on a lot.

There could be downsides either way.

DS

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Re: Money and Confidence are Interchangeable
« Reply #21 on: March 14, 2018, 11:27:06 AM »
Retirement is just a mindset :)

caracarn

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Re: Money and Confidence are Interchangeable
« Reply #22 on: March 15, 2018, 09:09:54 AM »
I agree with most of the folks here that this article was a bit of entitled arrogance and while the original MMM message was very grounded it seems each new article places Pete further and further away from everyone else. 

I do not agree with risk taking being the end all be all, as the last poster seems to.  I know a lot of people who live life taking risks saying they can always get a job when they need one, and they get to test it out a lot because they stink at anything they do and get fired and "need" another job and they find one and fail at that, but they stay rosy and optimistic while their family suffers from the inability to provide anything stable because of their lack of "risk aversion". 

I believe you need to be a bit prudent about what you can and cannot do.  Being confident is one thing, but letting that confidence guide you to taking clearly low likelihood chances on things and not having time to pick up the pieces if you crash and burn is not a solid strategy.  So I agree with those who say it is easy to write this in hindsight as he sits on a gusher of money from the blog.  It's like those people who act all bad ass only after the manager of the restaurant has told them to pipe down or they'll be booted.  They only act tough when they are sure no one who matters will hear them.  Having risen up from relatively poor circumstances to a comfortable lifestyle myself, I would say that my confidence in being able to do things absolutely grew as my safety net did, and for Pete to say that is not what occurred with him and just that he needed to take more risk and have confidence and it all would have worked out is a great outlook but following the MMM mantra, probably not optimized for reality.

ETA:  I have a friend of mine who is supremely confident and certainly would be one who feels and I also feel could get a job whenever he needed one.  And two months ago he woke up unable to speak and the found a brain tumor in his late 40s.  Still going through treatment and thought he was recovering and his wife texted me this morning that he was in the hospital since Saturday because he's having seizures and they cannot control them.  Confidence only gets you so far and assuming things will always be as they are today on the health front and your actual physical ability has some danger.

I actually do not think we disagree that much!

I certainly do not advocate just wild happy go lucky risk-taking.

I am thinking more of something like this:

Option 1: You can stay in your current job where you have a 100% chance of making $100,000 but also being miserable.

Option 2: You can open a consulting business where you have a 50% chance of making $100,000, a 30% chance of making $200,000 and 20% chance of making $50,000

The expected income in the second scenario is about $127,000 (.5 * 100K + .3*200K + .2* 50K) and an average outcome of being happier.

There is some evidence from psychological studies to suggest that most people are too risk-averse and would just choose to stick with what they know in this scenario despite the realistic possibility of being richer and happier if they took a bit of a risk.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Risk_aversion_(psychology)

So we're talking about calculated risk-taking, with ample preparation and realistic evaluation of the options, not just throwing caution to the winds and doing whatever you feel like.

This is what I interpreted MMM to be talking about when he talks about confidence (e.g. in the example above, even in the "bad" scenario of "only" making 50K, you won't be thrilled about it but you'll probably survive and there's a good chance you can eventually figure out a way how to get back to your old income).

And the entire idea of FIRE is always a bit of a risk. It's almost always going to be the safer option to keep working and keep adding to the stash.
I think it's simpler than that.  I think most people are just too lazy.  It's easier to stick with what they know then do the work to figure out what they do not. 

That aside, I do think you are correct that most people do not take the time/have the understanding to really properly assess the risk and therefore think it is much larger than it really is.

caracarn

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Re: Money and Confidence are Interchangeable
« Reply #23 on: March 15, 2018, 09:36:58 AM »
"ETA:  I have a friend of mine who is supremely confident and certainly would be one who feels and I also feel could get a job whenever he needed one.  And two months ago he woke up unable to speak and the found a brain tumor in his late 40s.  Still going through treatment and thought he was recovering and his wife texted me this morning that he was in the hospital since Saturday because he's having seizures and they cannot control them.  Confidence only gets you so far and assuming things will always be as they are today on the health front and your actual physical ability has some danger."

For a lot of us this would be a motivator to leave an unfulling job asap. Especially if you are FI already. You don't know how much time - or quality time - you have left in this world. Putting off living the life you want for years or decades because of fear (or lack of confidence in the outcome) may bring you deep regrets if you become sick or injured or disabled or will have an early death. Like  Tyler Durden said: "this is your life and it's ending one minute at a time". Don't let fear stop you from living it.
Agreed.  He loves his job.  But for those who do not, your point is well taken.

rweba

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Re: Money and Confidence are Interchangeable
« Reply #24 on: March 15, 2018, 02:32:02 PM »

I think it's simpler than that.  I think most people are just too lazy.  It's easier to stick with what they know then do the work to figure out what they do not. 

That aside, I do think you are correct that most people do not take the time/have the understanding to really properly assess the risk and therefore think it is much larger than it really is.

Yes! It takes some effort to really carefully assess the options and potentially make a big change and most people don't have themselves together enough to do that.

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Re: Money and Confidence are Interchangeable
« Reply #25 on: March 15, 2018, 05:37:58 PM »
I'm glad to see these thoughtful responses.  I also felt a little uncomfortable with parts of the post, though I think I agree overall with the message.  But yeah, it's a lot easier to assume you can always get a job when you are white, male, able-bodied, thin, highly educated, enjoy a certain amount of class privilege, etc. (not to mention skilled in a lot of ways).  But that's not as true for a lot of people.

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Re: Money and Confidence are Interchangeable
« Reply #26 on: March 16, 2018, 04:51:03 AM »
I'm glad to see these thoughtful responses.  I also felt a little uncomfortable with parts of the post, though I think I agree overall with the message.  But yeah, it's a lot easier to assume you can always get a job when you are white, male, able-bodied, thin, highly educated, enjoy a certain amount of class privilege, etc. (not to mention skilled in a lot of ways).  But that's not as true for a lot of people.

Yep.
As I said in my post, he’s very much speaking from a position of privilege, but he’s always spoken from a position of privilege. That’s not new.

I also see an enormous number of highly privileged people on these forums who complain about hating their jobs and agonizing over SWR and when they can quit. I think there are A LOT of people on this forum that this post can resonate with.

There are many people who have just as much privilege and ability to learn marketable skills as Pete and who aren’t living happy, healthy or satisfying lives. I personally know too many people putting off their lives and well being  until they reach FIRE, which I think is fundamentally pathological.

I’ve also posted before about  the opportunity cost of people not pursuing their best life early. It’s a lot harder to figure out what makes you happy, learn the necessary skills to do so, and build the necessary network to make it happen if you wait until retirement to start doing what you love.

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Money and Confidence are Interchangeable
« Reply #27 on: March 17, 2018, 08:57:50 PM »
I don't dwell long on the blog posts anymore, Pete lost his 'something special' somewhere between turning down $4,000/mo to cut out vulgarity when that money probably really made a difference and telling the millionaire sell-out JD Roth that decisions should be made without thinking about money.

I did appreciate this exchange midway through the comments though:

Quote
James March 9, 2018, 11:05 pm

Confidence and Money are now Interchangeable? Ridiculous. Even measuring by a nebulous unequivocal metric like comfortability, this is total crap and reeks of self-help bathroom reading. Your advice here is paramount to T.Swift advising everyone to simply follow their dreams or lottery winners telling us all to start buying scratchers. Reality check, MMM, YOU didn’t follow this advice to achieve your “success”.

We’re all glad you have a blog but you fill a very particular niche. To my mind, the applicable quality of your blogs is trending down and the majority of your pieces are useless. Writing is cheap and it pays cheaply for a reason. Anyone can do it, you just occupy a unique position and thus people are more willing to listen (read). Without the success you achieved (NOT by these methods described here) none of us would be here reading your stuff.

Your Recipe: “millions of these people are surely happier than me.” Quantified by another nebulous term in “happiness”. Is this an abstraction or dogmatic doctrine?
“I am in control of my response to everything…” Your philosophy is weak and self-tyrannical.
Assumptions
Assumptions Galore
Blind Deaf and Dumb Assumptions
Ignores Travel Hacking entirely (a very relevant topic to people in the community) and presupposes your version of “a happy life”
Ghettoization of Northern American Cities? None of this is historically factual. “better for it” how?
Whatever . . .
Please
Stop

Is it strange that when you “depend on others” it’s a positive choice for both of you but other’s depending on you is them “acknowledging my strength”. Truthfully, depending on others is acknowledging your own dependence and it’s funny you should change the phrasing of the relationship immediately after the power shifts one sentence later.

Forgive me if I reluctant to take your mental leap into mediocrity. Happiness is a guide not a goal; a heading not a destination. Maybe one of your good friends will be brave enough to tell you’re revising your past to validate a self-serving present. Maybe they’d warn you that trying to justify your achievements retroactively and independent of your war chest is probably a tell-tale sign you’ve been binging on premature enlightenment. Is the doubt creeping in?

Optimism > Realism I guess, but that’s also why theres no one around who is real enough to tell it to you straight.

Jacob March 12, 2018, 8:30 am

Cheer up bud.

Jeff March 12, 2018, 12:32 pm

I think MMM is referring to rational confidence vs emotional confidence. These two types of confidence are as different as science and superstition. In fact, personally, I don’t count emotional confidence as a plus, but as a minus. Emotional confidence is what most people seem to have, and it stems from a belief in oneself outside the bounds of reality. Rational confidence is where all the real worth unfolds from.

James March 13, 2018, 5:02 pm

I’d like to respond and note that your point is unsupported by anything in MMM’s blog. Unfortunately, only about 1/3 of my comments/replies are ever approved so I’m likely wasting my time (again). This contributes to the circle jerk echo chamber that this site seems to enjoy so much. I rarely find any dissenting opinions and this article is by no means an exception.

My original reply was not approved so I will summarize by saying your point of view is entirely your own and I see no evidence for it anywhere. Furthermore, it doesn’t address anything that I said.

Mr. Money Mustache March 14, 2018, 9:28 am

You’re right James – you will be wasting your time trying to add any future comments.

Because dissenting comments are welcome, but when you come into a writer’s living room and spray around insults like, “this is total crap”, you get escorted to the door and not invited back in. Nobody cares about your opinion, if you’re going to be an asshole while you deliver it.

The rules for my comments section are the same as a party at my house – the standards don’t loosen up just because we are protected by our keyboards and monitors.

I suggest you try this philosophy on for size in ALL your online interactions from now on, and see if you notice any change in your life success and mindset.

I guess I just like to hear a reasonable dissenting opinion in the comments, but also realize what letting all dissenting comments in would look like.  But it's a breath of fresh air to see what discussion and debate on novel ideas looks like IRL.

rweba

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Re: Money and Confidence are Interchangeable
« Reply #28 on: March 19, 2018, 06:14:26 AM »
I don't dwell long on the blog posts anymore, Pete lost his 'something special' somewhere between turning down $4,000/mo to cut out vulgarity when that money probably really made a difference and telling the millionaire sell-out JD Roth that decisions should be made without thinking about money.


What makes you call JD Roth a sellout? I never followed so I don't know what shady things he may have done.

cerat0n1a

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Re: Money and Confidence are Interchangeable
« Reply #29 on: March 19, 2018, 07:28:36 AM »
I guess I just like to hear a reasonable dissenting opinion in the comments, but also realize what letting all dissenting comments in would look like.  But it's a breath of fresh air to see what discussion and debate on novel ideas looks like IRL.

I guess using phrases like "circle jerk" doesn't really conform to my definition of "reasonable dissenting opinion." And that's the difference between "IRL" and comments pages on the web.

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Money and Confidence are Interchangeable
« Reply #30 on: March 19, 2018, 08:22:59 AM »
I don't dwell long on the blog posts anymore, Pete lost his 'something special' somewhere between turning down $4,000/mo to cut out vulgarity when that money probably really made a difference and telling the millionaire sell-out JD Roth that decisions should be made without thinking about money.


What makes you call JD Roth a sellout? I never followed so I don't know what shady things he may have done.

Nothing necessarily directly shady, just that he sold his Get Rich Slowly site to a financially shady group for an undisclosed sum (enough to get him to FIRE) which essentially flies in the face of getting rich slowly as well as pretty much screwing over devoted readers.

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Money and Confidence are Interchangeable
« Reply #31 on: March 19, 2018, 08:24:55 AM »
I guess I just like to hear a reasonable dissenting opinion in the comments, but also realize what letting all dissenting comments in would look like.  But it's a breath of fresh air to see what discussion and debate on novel ideas looks like IRL.

I guess using phrases like "circle jerk" doesn't really conform to my definition of "reasonable dissenting opinion." And that's the difference between "IRL" and comments pages on the web.

I agree with that, but I also gave him the benefit of the doubt that he was frustrated and also didn't think any more comments would get posted.

rweba

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Re: Money and Confidence are Interchangeable
« Reply #32 on: March 20, 2018, 08:34:56 AM »
I don't dwell long on the blog posts anymore, Pete lost his 'something special' somewhere between turning down $4,000/mo to cut out vulgarity when that money probably really made a difference and telling the millionaire sell-out JD Roth that decisions should be made without thinking about money.


What makes you call JD Roth a sellout? I never followed so I don't know what shady things he may have done.

Nothing necessarily directly shady, just that he sold his Get Rich Slowly site to a financially shady group for an undisclosed sum (enough to get him to FIRE) which essentially flies in the face of getting rich slowly as well as pretty much screwing over devoted readers.

OK, I can see that, Dividend Mantra (Jason Fieber), sort of did the same thing.

In general, I do agree that the people who become rich by telling other people how to get rich do seem a  bit suspect.
 
Robert Kiyosaki (Rich Dad, Poor Dad) is one who comes to mind in this category.

SugarMountain

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Re: Money and Confidence are Interchangeable
« Reply #33 on: March 20, 2018, 09:03:46 AM »
I don't dwell long on the blog posts anymore, Pete lost his 'something special' somewhere between turning down $4,000/mo to cut out vulgarity when that money probably really made a difference and telling the millionaire sell-out JD Roth that decisions should be made without thinking about money.


What makes you call JD Roth a sellout? I never followed so I don't know what shady things he may have done.

Nothing necessarily directly shady, just that he sold his Get Rich Slowly site to a financially shady group for an undisclosed sum (enough to get him to FIRE) which essentially flies in the face of getting rich slowly as well as pretty much screwing over devoted readers.

OK, I can see that, Dividend Mantra (Jason Fieber), sort of did the same thing.

In general, I do agree that the people who become rich by telling other people how to get rich do seem a  bit suspect.
 
Robert Kiyosaki (Rich Dad, Poor Dad) is one who comes to mind in this category.

See also Charles Givens, author of "Wealth Without Risk". (Big deal in the late 80s/early 90s.)

markbike528CBX

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Re: Money and Confidence are Interchangeable
« Reply #34 on: March 20, 2018, 09:24:28 AM »
I could have paid MONEY to get my toilet fixed.  But because I had CONFIDENCE that I could do it (no prior experience), I saved a lot of MONEY.

My roommate at the time, a chemical engineer, bought the kit, but did not fix the issue (it was "his" bathroom).   I was in no hurry, because we were trying to ease the roommate out.   About a week after his departure, with a little help from a few people to hold things while I worked on it, it was done in about 30 minutes.

That's what I got out of the blog post.

rweba

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Re: Money and Confidence are Interchangeable
« Reply #35 on: March 20, 2018, 10:40:40 AM »
I don't dwell long on the blog posts anymore, Pete lost his 'something special' somewhere between turning down $4,000/mo to cut out vulgarity when that money probably really made a difference and telling the millionaire sell-out JD Roth that decisions should be made without thinking about money.


What makes you call JD Roth a sellout? I never followed so I don't know what shady things he may have done.

Nothing necessarily directly shady, just that he sold his Get Rich Slowly site to a financially shady group for an undisclosed sum (enough to get him to FIRE) which essentially flies in the face of getting rich slowly as well as pretty much screwing over devoted readers.

OK, I can see that, Dividend Mantra (Jason Fieber), sort of did the same thing.

In general, I do agree that the people who become rich by telling other people how to get rich do seem a  bit suspect.
 
Robert Kiyosaki (Rich Dad, Poor Dad) is one who comes to mind in this category.

See also Charles Givens, author of "Wealth Without Risk". (Big deal in the late 80s/early 90s.)

Yikes, I just googled him, seems he was a total fraud!

It seems selling "get rich quick" schemes is by far the quickest strategy to attain FI - unfortunately I am not a very good bullshitter.

sisto

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Re: Money and Confidence are Interchangeable
« Reply #36 on: March 20, 2018, 11:40:47 AM »
I actually really enjoyed the forum post. Much of it really resonated with me personally. I don't think Pete came off as arrogant or a person of privilege at all. I agree with much of what he said and feel that he's right. Most people aren't willing to leave their comfort zone for fear of failure or the unknown. I'm a firm believer that almost anyone can do almost anything, you just have to try. Having enough confidence to try is the first step, then being able to learn from your failures comes next.

I also enjoyed the CBT part as well, that's something I've been working on lately. I tend to react very strongly about many things and I realized it's because I care too much. Most people just don't really care and I can't expect them to take things as seriously as I do so I'm working on that. I like being in control of things, so understanding that I'm the one in control of how I react can really help.

It's easy to become complacent and just OMY to make sure you have enough. Learning how to do the math and figure things out or be willing to adjust your safe withdrawal rate or many other strategies is much harder and people are inherently lazy.

Call me crazy, but I took the article as a pep talk.

trollwithamustache

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Re: Money and Confidence are Interchangeable
« Reply #37 on: March 22, 2018, 08:51:04 AM »
Call me crazy, but I took the article as a pep talk.

He definitely means well.

These tone arguments/criticisms can be a bit silly. The Ol' mustache committed himself  to this writing style to convince people frugality is a good thing and has all these benefits. But, the only people who read it already think that!

Classical_Liberal

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Re: Money and Confidence are Interchangeable
« Reply #38 on: March 25, 2018, 09:41:50 PM »
I loved this post!  Frankly, it reminded me of the MMM of yester-year, the one that got me all FIRE’d up, so to speak.  I can, however, see how it resonates the wrong way; ie MMM was super lucky and shouldn’t encourage people to make fool-hearty moves.
 
I really don’t think the disagreement is about “confidence=money”.  This is highly metaphorical and obviously not evidence based.   The disagreement is more in how each person is planning to lead life with their stache.  There’s a large spectrum of people, different ages, desires, talents, etc. As matter of fact we could probably have dozens of separate sliding scales.

Producer------------------------Consumer
Younger------------------------------Older
Idealistic--------------------------Realistic
Enjoys new--------------Enjoys sameness
Risk Taker-----------------Security Seeker

Etc, etc, etc

The point being, MMM’s advice in this article is for people who are on his side of these scales.

A 29 year old who has saved 10X spending,  who just wants to focus their energy effectively on personal goals, with spending <20K a year for personal and environmental reasons, could easily live the life they want today.  Because something they do over the next decade is gonna earn money and they’ll likely end up filthy rich like MMM.  20K a year is a piece of cake for a smart, motivated young person in the rich West.
 
However, an upper-middle class spending 50 year-old who is burnt, wants to provide the most expensive opportunities for their future grand kids, finally wants to be able to travel the world in luxury, and has very little productive aspiration left, would get destroyed following that same advice. Hell, in this situation with current market valuations,  I’d want to go OMY at 4% too!
 
Neither is good or bad, just different people in different situations, with different goals. Realize this blog and the culture being promoted by the forum (originally anyway) was for people in similar situations as MMM.

This article, like all good MMM articles in the same ilk, has a very specific audience in mind.  People like him. For that audience its really very sound advice:
 
Be confident and live the life you want, as soon as you have the financial ability to do so.  Once you’ve reached that personal sweet spot, more money has significantly diminishing returns.  So much so, you are actually sabotaging the success of your plan.

midwesterner1982

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Re: Money and Confidence are Interchangeable
« Reply #39 on: April 02, 2018, 11:18:38 PM »
I took is as aimed at the OMY folks who have small worries that keep them tied to a job they hate.  The whole idea is that you always have options if the shtf.  Just because you leave your job doesn't mean you'll never earn another dollar if you need to.

Some of you need a check up from the neck up!  Something is very wrong in your life if the only thing you took from that article was petty jealousy!  You need to figure out why you're so bitter and fix it!

tooqk4u22

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Re: Money and Confidence are Interchangeable
« Reply #40 on: April 03, 2018, 07:48:08 AM »
I took is as aimed at the OMY folks who have small worries that keep them tied to a job they hate.  The whole idea is that you always have options if the shtf.  Just because you leave your job doesn't mean you'll never earn another dollar if you need to.

Some of you need a check up from the neck up!  Something is very wrong in your life if the only thing you took from that article was petty jealousy!  You need to figure out why you're so bitter and fix it!
I think that the OP and a couple of other posters are very high earning and high spending so it might be hard for them to imagine they could pick up a side gig that would cover their high FIRE expenses if SHTF after leaving their jobs. Us po' FIREd folk who live on half or more of their income know its fairly easy to cover a gap with a low earning or part time job if ever needed.

True to some extent but as you have been on record many times - it is far easier leap when healthcare is not a concern - I have always liked your honesty in your posts about your situation and your recognition of why it might not be as easy for others.  Would you be fully comfortable with the balance of (1) I will just be on ACA with subsidies or (2) shell out $20k a year if ACA goes away. 

Separately for me specifically, we are a family of five and all that goes with that, and while it may not cost $200k to raise a kid to 18 like the media reports there still are increased costs just for needs.   Sure a lot doesn't fall into the "Need" category such as activities and future college expenses but these are choices.   Having three children is the best thing, but also most non-mustachian and luxury thing, I have done. 

That said, our higher spending now could have a finite life as once they are out of the house all those direct and indirect kids expenses go away, but I don't know if they will be offset with increased travel or health care.
« Last Edit: April 03, 2018, 07:50:43 AM by tooqk4u22 »

caracarn

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Re: Money and Confidence are Interchangeable
« Reply #41 on: April 03, 2018, 08:28:18 AM »
I took is as aimed at the OMY folks who have small worries that keep them tied to a job they hate.  The whole idea is that you always have options if the shtf.  Just because you leave your job doesn't mean you'll never earn another dollar if you need to.

Some of you need a check up from the neck up!  Something is very wrong in your life if the only thing you took from that article was petty jealousy!  You need to figure out why you're so bitter and fix it!
I think that the OP and a couple of other posters are very high earning and high spending so it might be hard for them to imagine they could pick up a side gig that would cover their high FIRE expenses if SHTF after leaving their jobs. Us po' FIREd folk who live on half or more of their income know its fairly easy to cover a gap with a low earning or part time job if ever needed.

True to some extent but as you have been on record many times - it is far easier leap when healthcare is not a concern - I have always liked your honesty in your posts about your situation and your recognition of why it might not be as easy for others.  Would you be fully comfortable with the balance of (1) I will just be on ACA with subsidies or (2) shell out $20k a year if ACA goes away. 

Separately for me specifically, we are a family of five and all that goes with that, and while it may not cost $200k to raise a kid to 18 like the media reports there still are increased costs just for needs.   Sure a lot doesn't fall into the "Need" category such as activities and future college expenses but these are choices.   Having three children is the best thing, but also most non-mustachian and luxury thing, I have done. 

That said, our higher spending now could have a finite life as once they are out of the house all those direct and indirect kids expenses go away, but I don't know if they will be offset with increased travel or health care.
Having six kids ourselves, for us it would be hard to spend everything we do for them in things that are required for where we live.  For example, the school expects all kids to have a cell phone as their teachers will text them etc.  Even though we asked if they could not have phones it was very clear that it would put them at a detriment.  Food, clothing, extra vehicle and insurance which they contribute to when they start working but still we need to subsidize as no way they could afford it on their own yet.  All adds up to tens of thousands a year and for the most part about the range of what MMM says are his total living expenses is what we calculate would drop once it is just my wife and I, so cutting $25K a year still leave us a lot to spend on healthcare and travel and still not be at the same level.

robartsd

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Re: Money and Confidence are Interchangeable
« Reply #42 on: April 03, 2018, 10:36:28 AM »
Having six kids ourselves, for us it would be hard to spend everything we do for them in things that are required for where we live.  For example, the school expects all kids to have a cell phone as their teachers will text them etc.  Even though we asked if they could not have phones it was very clear that it would put them at a detriment.
My solution for cheap texting is Google Voice and a cheap wifi tablet. This would work if the school had wifi they could connect to.

NoStacheOhio

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Re: Money and Confidence are Interchangeable
« Reply #43 on: April 03, 2018, 10:49:04 AM »
Having six kids ourselves, for us it would be hard to spend everything we do for them in things that are required for where we live.  For example, the school expects all kids to have a cell phone as their teachers will text them etc.  Even though we asked if they could not have phones it was very clear that it would put them at a detriment.
My solution for cheap texting is Google Voice and a cheap wifi tablet. This would work if the school had wifi they could connect to.

The school encourages teachers to text students? That seems ripe for disaster.

I'm only 31, and I remember some pretty harsh responses to even possessing a phone during school hours.

caracarn

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Re: Money and Confidence are Interchangeable
« Reply #44 on: April 03, 2018, 12:57:34 PM »
Having six kids ourselves, for us it would be hard to spend everything we do for them in things that are required for where we live.  For example, the school expects all kids to have a cell phone as their teachers will text them etc.  Even though we asked if they could not have phones it was very clear that it would put them at a detriment.
My solution for cheap texting is Google Voice and a cheap wifi tablet. This would work if the school had wifi they could connect to.

The school encourages teachers to text students? That seems ripe for disaster.

I'm only 31, and I remember some pretty harsh responses to even possessing a phone during school hours.
They text the entire class through a portal.  It is not a teacher sending text to a particular student, but they send it to the school portal which then blasts it out to the students.

NoStacheOhio

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Re: Money and Confidence are Interchangeable
« Reply #45 on: April 03, 2018, 01:02:16 PM »
They text the entire class through a portal.  It is not a teacher sending text to a particular student, but they send it to the school portal which then blasts it out to the students.

That makes way more sense!

gerardc

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Re: Money and Confidence are Interchangeable
« Reply #46 on: April 07, 2018, 11:31:11 PM »
The article was great. Some of you are reading it wrong. The graph/curve does reflect the need to have a basic level of money. My interpretation is if you're 30 years old overachiever with $1M in a career you don't fully like, stop stressing or overcompensating, and take some risk to start a business or fund your passion (with some safety net in your stash); chances are you'll make SOME money in the many years until traditional retirement age. He's NOT saying to quit working at 55 years old $100k saved and go sailing without a plan. I think that's common sense.

My favorite part:

"It turns out I didn’t need all that money, because my needs and wants will never be more than I earn from my natural desire to do useful work."
So far, I've found that to be true. Hell, most of my "pothead" acquaintances still manage to find PT work to scrape by without going into debt. Think you can manage that? Your stash will most likely grow, especially if you're close to 4% already.

Nothing is 100% certain, but many people would kill to try a risky career in acting, freelancing, writing/music/art, starting a business because the outcome is too uncertain... If you have a healthy stash, you CAN! so do it, be frugal and quit the boring corporate BS.


I agree with most of the folks here that this article was a bit of entitled arrogance and while the original MMM message was very grounded it seems each new article places Pete further and further away from everyone else. 

I do not agree with risk taking being the end all be all, as the last poster seems to.  I know a lot of people who live life taking risks saying they can always get a job when they need one, and they get to test it out a lot because they stink at anything they do and get fired and "need" another job and they find one and fail at that, but they stay rosy and optimistic while their family suffers from the inability to provide anything stable because of their lack of "risk aversion". 

Have you read the article? It's about an overcompensating teenager who strives to become "good at everything they do", including their job, frugal lifestyle, health and fitness, etc. Being on the upper part of the graph (enough money) is a prerequisite for his prescription (the recipe for confidence). If you don't meet the prerequisite, the article doesn't apply.
« Last Edit: April 07, 2018, 11:40:49 PM by gerardc »

caracarn

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Re: Money and Confidence are Interchangeable
« Reply #47 on: April 11, 2018, 12:37:27 PM »
I agree with most of the folks here that this article was a bit of entitled arrogance and while the original MMM message was very grounded it seems each new article places Pete further and further away from everyone else. 

I do not agree with risk taking being the end all be all, as the last poster seems to.  I know a lot of people who live life taking risks saying they can always get a job when they need one, and they get to test it out a lot because they stink at anything they do and get fired and "need" another job and they find one and fail at that, but they stay rosy and optimistic while their family suffers from the inability to provide anything stable because of their lack of "risk aversion". 

Have you read the article? It's about an overcompensating teenager who strives to become "good at everything they do", including their job, frugal lifestyle, health and fitness, etc. Being on the upper part of the graph (enough money) is a prerequisite for his prescription (the recipe for confidence). If you don't meet the prerequisite, the article doesn't apply.
Yes, I did read the article.  Maybe that was not really a question given what you followed it with.  You then provide your interpretation of the article, which does not align with mine. 

I had a lot of friends as a teenager that felt that were good at everything they did, but they were sorely mistaken and the world was telling them that, they just refused to listen.  Why?  Because they had confidence.  And it killed them.  That was my point.  The pithy comment of "money and confidence are interchangeable" which is not something I made up, it was what the title of the post was, is wrong in my opinion.  You can be very confident and still never make any money because you are delusional.  That's what I was warning against.  These people think they meet the prerequisite.  They don't.  They just won't admit it or can't see it or whatever, therefore if they read this and think it applies and go forth with confidence that can still crash and burn.

trollwithamustache

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Re: Money and Confidence are Interchangeable
« Reply #48 on: April 11, 2018, 12:55:15 PM »

I had a lot of friends as a teenager that felt that were good at everything they did, but they were sorely mistaken and the world was telling them that, they just refused to listen.  Why?  Because they had confidence.  And it killed them.

There is a difference between confidence and hubris.

caracarn

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Re: Money and Confidence are Interchangeable
« Reply #49 on: April 11, 2018, 01:01:43 PM »

I had a lot of friends as a teenager that felt that were good at everything they did, but they were sorely mistaken and the world was telling them that, they just refused to listen.  Why?  Because they had confidence.  And it killed them.

There is a difference between confidence and hubris.
There certainly is and I suppose the fact that I feel a person with the latter would take that post poorly did lead to my commentary.