Author Topic: Math Question about RCS: Man who Didn't realize he was already rich  (Read 4331 times)

bothpaninis

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I have a question about the reader case study from May 16, 2011. A 41-year-old man writes in.

From the blogpost:
His family is living on $2351 per month right now – $28,000 per year. To generate that much income with no work, he would need another $403,000 working at 7%. With $80k in the bank right now and a $28k annual savings rate, he is already less than eight years away from a full retirement if he continually invests the early retirement money as he goes along.

Here's my question: By my calculations, he is 11.5 years from retirement:
#of years to retirement = ((annual expenses/withdrawal rate) minus amount already saved up)/yearly savings
# of years to retirement = (28212/.07 – 80000)/28000 = 11.5

How did MMM get 8? I need this info so I can make some good predictions for my own situ...

Watchmaker

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Re: Math Question about RCS: Man who Didn't realize he was already rich
« Reply #1 on: November 07, 2013, 08:07:32 AM »
I'm guessing the original calcuation accounts for growth in the already invested money.

That is to say, each year not only do you save $X but your exisiting investments grow by Y%. 

bothpaninis

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Re: Math Question about RCS: Man who Didn't realize he was already rich
« Reply #2 on: November 07, 2013, 08:23:42 AM »


Hmm... that's a good point. So, say his 80,000 savings has grown to 137,455 (assuming 7% growth over 8 years), then I still don't get the same answer as MMM... I get 9.5 years...

Posthumane

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Re: Math Question about RCS: Man who Didn't realize he was already rich
« Reply #3 on: November 07, 2013, 08:30:06 AM »
It's not only the initial 80k that's growing. The 80k grows for 8 years, plus his first year of savings of 28k will grow for 7 years, then the next 28k grow for 6 years, etc.

You use the future value formula for regular contributions and solve for the time period.

bothpaninis

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Re: Math Question about RCS: Man who Didn't realize he was already rich
« Reply #4 on: November 07, 2013, 12:24:34 PM »
Oh Duh... now I see what I was missing. I was forgetting to incorporate the additional contributions to savings into my formula.  Thank you!

Heart of Tin

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Re: Math Question about RCS: Man who Didn't realize he was already rich
« Reply #5 on: November 07, 2013, 05:04:27 PM »
Bothpaninis, I think you’re neglecting other information in that post that is very relevant. This reader also had $300,000 in 401k and IRA accounts and a $140,000 mortgage. When MMM said that the reader needed $403,000 more to retire he meant that the reader’s yearly expenses, $2,351*12 = $28,212, could be supported at a 4% save withdrawal rate if he had $28,212 / .04 = $705,300. Since the reader already has $300,000 in savings, he only need an additional $405,300 in order to retire by this approximated math. MMM might have been using the reader’s actual numbers instead of approximations to get the slightly lower $403,000 total.
 
MMM recommended that the reader first add his $80,000 in savings to the $300,000 in investments, and let that compound for the next 8 years yielding ($300,000 + $80,000)*(1.07)^8 = $652,910.70 after 8 years. He then advised the reader to pay down the mortgage on the house over the next 5 years; let’s assume that the reader uses all 5 years to do this contributing all savings to the mortgage. His remaining contributions would occur in years 6, 7, and 8 at a level $28,000 per year yielding $28,000*(1.07)^2 + $28,000*(1.07)^1 + $28,000 = $32,057.20 + $29,960 + $28,000 = $90,017.20 at the end of the 8 year period. When you add the two accumulated values up, $652,910.70 + $90,017.20 = $742,927.90 which is enough for him to retire. Note that after 7 years, the reader would only have $668,157 which is not quite enough.

 

Wow, a phone plan for fifteen bucks!