Funny, you see covid as having shown that the supply chains are unreliable. I find the opposite - they are actually quite robust.
Random things that have been in quite short supply, either for periods of time or "I literally can't get one" as of recently (the past 6 months):
- Basic steel channel.
- PVC conduit of various sizes.
- Combo meter base/breaker panels with feedthrough lugs, as are installed on the outside of almost all new construction out here.
- Trailer axles (torsion half axles).
- Trailer frames of the prebuilt variety.
- Microcontrollers of a huge range of "These are made by the millions and there shouldn't be any issue designing around these."
- Raspberry Pis of
any variety, for things that have been designed around them.
- Flooded lead acid batteries of the deep cycle, off grid variety.
And that's just the stuff that's directly been a pain to me or another person I'm working on growing a business with. We
literally can't get the parts we need to build things from damned near scratch, and once you get one thing, another thing is unavailable. I'll let you optimist-bubble about how you design PCBs for things when you can't expect your microcontroller will be available past the 50 or so you can get, or will go from $0.20/unit to $80/unit if you
can get them. I sure as hell don't know how to do that very well. There are tricks to be flexible, but they only get you so far, and usually fall over when not only the particular model you want, but the entire related line becomes unavailable. You can't just swap out an ST for a RP2040 without a good bit of rework, and, often, some changes to external chips (which also are a pain to find in any quantity).
So
wherever you're finding reliable supply chains for things outside consumer goodies, please share. Or ship me a couple combo meter bases, I've got some friends waiting on the parts for solar installs.
I have to admit at the very beginning I felt the same panic everyone did and bought a bunch of non-perishables and wow do I feel stupid with a ton of crap in my basement I haven't managed to use up in the last 2 years.
Are you going to use them eventually (before they hit end of life)? Then what's the problem? If you bought so much they're all useless, well, that's on you.
Here's my takeaway after having thought about this for the past couple of years. Our supply lines are robust because they are global.
Because... I'm sorry, have you been paying
any attention to the things you're blathering on about for the past two years? The entire global supply chain has been a hot mess the past two years. Shipping times have gone from a dead reliable "two weeks port to dock" to "Uh. You know, please stop calling, we have no idea and can't get any updates." This is also quite the problem for businesses who are trying to pay employees when they can't sell product because they can't build product, because they can't get one or two particular parts that, contrary to your assertions below, don't have easy alternatives, or require FCC recertification or such when you change out board designs and parts.
Even when it comes to specialized parts, it's more a question of slowing down or delays, rather than complete stoppages. At worst, this is an inconvenience.
Go talk to anyone who actually builds things, and see if they share your "It's an inconvenience, nothing more!" perspective. Find a local homebuilder, mechanic, basically any trade, and see if they agree with you. Because the ones I talk to aren't dealing with delays. They're dealing with "There are none of these in the country, we don't know when any more will arrive, and there are no alternatives without a radical redesign of your things."
On a more philosophical point, I just find the entire prepper mindset to be incredibly depressing. Being in a state of mind where you constantly half-expect society to collapse to the point where you have to live off the land is just a miserable prospect.
Beat that strawman! Flog it! Light it on fire!
There's a huge gap between "Everything will be fine!" and "expecting to live off the land." Though a decent review of history says, "Being able to supply a lot of your immediate needs locally is worth a lot." Out here, I'm seeing an impressive, and quite encouraging, interest in residential chickens. To the point that I'm halfway expecting us to be the last of our social group to get chickens...
I don't find it depressing in the slightest. I find it rather stimulating to think through the various ways systems can fail, how to mitigate that, and what opportunities may arise out of the changes to come. "Put it all in markets and assume nothing will go wrong!" sounds dreadfully boring to me, really. But I also (quite willingly) live rural, repair my own stuff, etc.
A better approach would be to be rich enough that you can simply move to some place better.
Say it with me now: "Fuck You, I've Got Mine!" And then don't go anywhere near history books, because that whole thing has a pretty reliable outcome throughout history too. ;)
Oh, and I know everything I said above will not affect your opinion one iota.
Certainly. It's an interesting discussion. You find my point of view depressing, I find yours... willingly head in the sand? It'll work fine, until it doesn't, and then you've got nothing to fall back on.
Fear so entrenched in people that they feel that they have no choice but to prep, and that to do otherwise would be foolish.
And I feel much the same way about people who don't set things up to buy in bulk and have a few months worth of supplies on hand in a pinch - except, it's not fear, it's a willful ignorance of reality.
One gains nothing by ignoring reality. What you consider "fear," I consider "Trying to be able to navigate a range of possible futures," some of which involve currency collapse of various natures (heavy inflation being one), which are things that happen rather reliably and consistently throughout history - if you're willing to look past 2008 in the United States as the start of your historical window.
In any case, as long as you're not going to come knocking on my door, you're welcome to expect whatever to be there, and to expect whatever aid you'll need when that stops working (if it does) to arrive.