Author Topic: Early Retirement Can’t Work, Or I’d Have Heard Of It Before!  (Read 8576 times)

arebelspy

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Following up on this blog post:
http://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2012/07/08/early-retirement-cant-work-or-id-have-heard-of-it-before/

Okay, I know it's tacky to do a followup to a blog post I helped write.  Sue me.

I ran across an article today about biflation here:
http://balancejunkie.com/are-you-ready-for-biflation/

And it had an interesting graphic that further supported the premise of why one can retire early nowadays (why it's possible).



Mustachians can do their own services, so with the cost of durables going down, it makes it easier than ever to retire.  When you are ER'd, you have plenty of time to garden, instead of paying a gardener.  Or walk your dog, instead of paying a dog walker.  Or whatever services you may have paid for, that you don't now that you're Mustachian and/or ER'd.

The cost of durable goods going down (and being 20% cheaper than they were 18 years ago) means its easier than ever to achieve a high savings rate while working and achieve a low expenses level while retired.

Just wanted to add that, since I can't edit the article itself.
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gooki

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Re: Early Retirement Can’t Work, Or I’d Have Heard Of It Before!
« Reply #1 on: July 18, 2012, 09:04:25 PM »
I'd love to see an analysis of a F.I./retired persons spending split between goods and services. I have a sneaking suspicion that services takes up the larger portion.

Expected services:
Fees on investments
Insurance
Communications
Utilities
Travel
Local/State Taxes (this is technically a service right?)

Goods:
Food
Gas
Household consumables
Gifts

arebelspy

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Re: Early Retirement Can’t Work, Or I’d Have Heard Of It Before!
« Reply #2 on: July 18, 2012, 09:46:09 PM »
I'd love to see an analysis of a F.I./retired persons spending split between goods and services. I have a sneaking suspicion that services takes up the larger portion.

I'd disagree, but maybe you're right.

I think that's why expenses generally go down in retirement though, less spending over all, and since the amount of goods they purchase isn't changing a whole ton (I mean sure they have their stuff already, but it wears out at the same rate as when they were working, things like dishwashers), so the decreased spending should mostly be due to less spending on services.
I am a former teacher who accumulated a bunch of real estate, retired at 29, spent some time traveling the world full time and am now settled with three kids.
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smedleyb

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Re: Early Retirement Can’t Work, Or I’d Have Heard Of It Before!
« Reply #3 on: July 18, 2012, 10:02:14 PM »
Following up on this blog post:
http://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2012/07/08/early-retirement-cant-work-or-id-have-heard-of-it-before/

Okay, I know it's tacky to do a followup to a blog post I helped write.  Sue me.

I ran across an article today about biflation here:
http://balancejunkie.com/are-you-ready-for-biflation/

And it had an interesting graphic that further supported the premise of why one can retire early nowadays (why it's possible).



Mustachians can do their own services, so with the cost of durables going down, it makes it easier than ever to retire.  When you are ER'd, you have plenty of time to garden, instead of paying a gardener.  Or walk your dog, instead of paying a dog walker.  Or whatever services you may have paid for, that you don't now that you're Mustachian and/or ER'd.

The cost of durable goods going down (and being 20% cheaper than they were 18 years ago) means its easier than ever to achieve a high savings rate while working and achieve a low expenses level while retired.

Just wanted to add that, since I can't edit the article itself.

Education and health care are primarily responsible for the upward sloping services curve; declining prices in plasma TVs, smart phones, and  plastic Barbie Dolls at Walmart skew the durable goods curve down.

Or from the article:

I’ve heard a lot of people describe it as inflation in the things we need and deflation in the things we want, or inflation in services with deflation in durables. Indeed, the following chart shows that this phenomenon has actually been present for well over a decade:

I agree 100% with this description of the current state of affairs.  However, I say prepare for a reversion to the mean as education costs come tumbling down and the scarcity of resources coupled with the deteriorating wage arbitration in China starts to exert pressure on the price of durable good.  I think that chart does a better job of capturing what has been rather than what will be, IMO.

arebelspy

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Re: Early Retirement Can’t Work, Or I’d Have Heard Of It Before!
« Reply #4 on: July 18, 2012, 10:23:44 PM »
Possibly.  Over the long term, due to inflation, I expect both those lines to increase in absolute terms.

However I do think durable goods will underperform inflation and services will slightly outpace inflation, simply due to the technological advances and such that we enjoy.  Services always need to be paid for, and have a more or less fixed cost (wages), while durable goods can come down in price.

For the same reason so much stuff is cheaper now than it was 10 years ago, or 50 years, I think it will continue to be so (fossil fuel arguments aside) in general.
I am a former teacher who accumulated a bunch of real estate, retired at 29, spent some time traveling the world full time and am now settled with three kids.
If you want to know more about me, this Business Insider profile tells the story pretty well.
I (rarely) blog at AdventuringAlong.com. Check out the Now page to see what I'm up to currently.

smedleyb

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Re: Early Retirement Can’t Work, Or I’d Have Heard Of It Before!
« Reply #5 on: July 18, 2012, 10:29:22 PM »
Possibly.  Over the long term, due to inflation, I expect both those lines to increase in absolute terms.

However I do think durable goods will underperform inflation and services will slightly outpace inflation, simply due to the technological advances and such that we enjoy.  Services always need to be paid for, and have a more or less fixed cost (wages), while durable goods can come down in price.

For the same reason so much stuff is cheaper now than it was 10 years ago, or 50 years, I think it will continue to be so (fossil fuel arguments aside) in general.

Exhibit A:  updated chart (inlcluding 2011)

http://seekingalpha.com/article/290435-durable-goods-contribute-to-inflation-again

What has changed so much since late last year? This second chart gives us a clue: durable goods prices are no longer deflating. In fact, durable goods prices have risen at a 1.2% annualized rate since the end of last year, and that's the first sustained rise in durable goods prices since 1994.

See the how the durable goods slope is turning upward, and how services is slowly tapering off?

arebelspy

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Re: Early Retirement Can’t Work, Or I’d Have Heard Of It Before!
« Reply #6 on: July 18, 2012, 10:38:46 PM »
I don't know what it'll be like in the future.

Like I said, gooki may be right.

My only point is that chart is further proof that today, it's completely possible to become FI in a short period of time.  Anyone alive today of sufficient age has had the last 14 years of declining prices of durable goods to take advantage of.

That may not be a possibility in the future, who knows.  But that fact about durable goods over the last 14 years is just one more thing in the unique set of circumstances that makes now the easiest time in history to become FI.
I am a former teacher who accumulated a bunch of real estate, retired at 29, spent some time traveling the world full time and am now settled with three kids.
If you want to know more about me, this Business Insider profile tells the story pretty well.
I (rarely) blog at AdventuringAlong.com. Check out the Now page to see what I'm up to currently.

smedleyb

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Re: Early Retirement Can’t Work, Or I’d Have Heard Of It Before!
« Reply #7 on: July 18, 2012, 10:58:36 PM »
I don't know what it'll be like in the future.

Like I said, gooki may be right.

My only point is that chart is further proof that today, it's completely possible to become FI in a short period of time.  Anyone alive today of sufficient age has had the last 14 years of declining prices of durable goods to take advantage of.

That may not be a possibility in the future, who knows.  But that fact about durable goods over the last 14 years is just one more thing in the unique set of circumstances that makes now the easiest time in history to become FI.

All that chart shows (especially the one I link to) is that the price of things we need like healthcare, food, and clothes is shooting way up, and the price of things that we want but don't really need like TVs, iPhones, and cars  -- in short, things Mustachians avoid to begin with -- were declining, but not any longer.

Regardless of what happens in the future, your fundamental thesis is not supported by the data, and one could argue that FI gets pushed much further out as the cost of necessities continue to rise as a function of resource scarcity, unchecked health care costs, and higher wages in China which drives the cost of our clothes and other basic goods higher. 


tooqk4u22

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Re: Early Retirement Can’t Work, Or I’d Have Heard Of It Before!
« Reply #8 on: July 19, 2012, 07:58:15 AM »
Possibly.  Over the long term, due to inflation, I expect both those lines to increase in absolute terms.

However I do think durable goods will underperform inflation and services will slightly outpace inflation, simply due to the technological advances and such that we enjoy.  Services always need to be paid for, and have a more or less fixed cost (wages), while durable goods can come down in price.

For the same reason so much stuff is cheaper now than it was 10 years ago, or 50 years, I think it will continue to be so (fossil fuel arguments aside) in general.

The declining prices in durable goods was only partially driven by technologcal advancements - it was more heavily driven by the opening of the east where people get paid pennies a day to make that crap and the buildings/equipment that are used, and that will pause because as they start doing better inflation happens and their wages increase. It still keeps it cheap but not declining - besides Mustachians don't buy that many durable goods, right?

Services have and will increase because of the real inflation that is experienced in the US, although healthcare and education have to give at some point - it is just not sustainable for those to be growing at 7% a year - although we have been saying that for more than a decade now. 

The declining prices in food, or declining as a % of HH spending, is almost entirely driven by technological advancement (fertilizers, pesticides, bio-engineering, etc.) and that will likely continue.

All in all it is still easier to retire early now than it has been throughout history, as long as you are willing to work hard/smart and live modestly.  The only caveat is the healthcare - I still think this is the greatest risk of ER especially if you have a family.


arebelspy

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Re: Early Retirement Can’t Work, Or I’d Have Heard Of It Before!
« Reply #9 on: July 19, 2012, 09:35:19 AM »
besides Mustachians don't buy that many durable goods, right?

You guys are missing the point of the article (the one posted here at MMM, not the one in the OP), or rather the target audience.

It's not an article written for Mustachians.  We know we can ER easily.  We've seen the light.

It's to convince those other people who say ER is impossible.  Who say there's no way it can be done.

It's to explain not how it can be done (which MMM has explained before), but why (and why they haven't heard of it).

With that target audience in mind, do you see how the OP helps that argument?  The normal person will be arguing about how they can't save money because of all their expenses (iPhone, cars, etc.) to which the Mustachian can not only try to convince them they don't need those things, but also call bullshit on those things stopping them from saving.

The above graph shows that those items are getting cheaper, and shouldn't be an impediment to saving.  Sure, cutting that stuff out dramatically increases your savings rate and should be done on your path to Mustachianism, but it certainly isn't a hindrance.  And it's completely possible to ER because stuff is so cheap nowadays (food, and even those durable items).  The above graph lets you call bullshit on stuff stopping you from saving, because that stuff is getting cheaper, not more expensive.  So clearly if you're spending more on it, that's because you're buying more!

The declining prices in food, or declining as a % of HH spending, is almost entirely driven by technological advancement (fertilizers, pesticides, bio-engineering, etc.) and that will likely continue.

All in all it is still easier to retire early now than it has been throughout history, as long as you are willing to work hard/smart and live modestly.  The only caveat is the healthcare - I still think this is the greatest risk of ER especially if you have a family.

Exactly.


The only caveat is the healthcare - I still think this is the greatest risk of ER especially if you have a family.

I think MMM has shown that's mostly an overblown fear, it's also a very US-centric one, and it's improving vis-a-vis PPACA.
« Last Edit: July 19, 2012, 09:37:39 AM by arebelspy »
I am a former teacher who accumulated a bunch of real estate, retired at 29, spent some time traveling the world full time and am now settled with three kids.
If you want to know more about me, this Business Insider profile tells the story pretty well.
I (rarely) blog at AdventuringAlong.com. Check out the Now page to see what I'm up to currently.

tooqk4u22

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Re: Early Retirement Can’t Work, Or I’d Have Heard Of It Before!
« Reply #10 on: July 19, 2012, 10:22:36 AM »
Quote
I think MMM has shown that's mostly an overblown fear, it's also a very US-centric one, and it's improving vis-a-vis PPACA.

It is US centric because other countries have socialized medicine, which in many, but not all, is inferior to what we have in the US - also don't be confused socialized medicine is not free or cheap those countries have much higher tax rates.  Obamacare is not the answer, in fact healthcare costs are increasing at even faster rate (10-11%) since inception.  There are elements of the plan that are really good but most are impractical or will be far more costly than people realize - and because its government run it will be inefficient at best.  In a way we already have a mixed (socialized/capitalist) plan because of medicare, medicaid, and the fact that hospital ERs can't turn anyone away.  These already cost $1Trillion and instead we are leaving this current crap in place, which is riddled with waste and fraud, and adding another $2trillion program that I suspect will be riddled with wast and fraud.

The bottom line is that we need REAL healthcare reform, which should start with taking the $1trillion spent on medicare, medicaid, and Hospital ER and using that money to create a plan to protect the population but allows people with greater means to choose their care - this can be done with an increased focus on preventive medicine, nutrition, as well as with outpatient clinics (hell people with insurance and means use these now - good treatment that is well located and affordable).  There also has to be a focus on accountability - a person that is 350 lbs, smokes and continues to eat processed foods everyday and not exercise andwon't take action to better themselves then they should not be unconditionally covered at the same cost as someone else.  However, that person should initially be given an opportunity and the support needed to change (there could be excerise classes and nutritionists at these clinics) 

MMM's has written about healthcare but has not actually lived that part yet, it has been provided by Mrs. MM's job, which she is leaving so it will soon be put to the test.  Anyway the primary mitigants described by MMM is to be healthy and have a high deductible plan so your monthly premiums are less - I don't dispell this and currently have a HD plan.  If you stay healthy you win, if you don't your losses are essentially capped and you are only out a bit more than a traditional plan. 

Well there are two issues with this:

(1) sure one bad year won't kill you financially, its only $10k, but if it is a recurring or chronic issue then that could be an additional $10k a year or another $250k in investments needed. 

(2) just because you live healthy doesn't mean you will be healthy - my mother was the epitomy of health - runs, swims, bikes, eats whole grains, low fat, etc - but she still got cancer. All is well now there were many years with a lot of expense and some of those continue. MMM is in 30s this risk increases exponentially with age. It also increase with the more people that you have to include - just the law of averages. My view is that if you have an HD plan you need to be prepared to write those checks every year. 



arebelspy

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Re: Early Retirement Can’t Work, Or I’d Have Heard Of It Before!
« Reply #11 on: July 19, 2012, 10:27:24 AM »
I agree with most of that.

Except for the idea that the spiraling cost of health care is a giant threat to ER.  It's a big issue to be dealt with, for sure.  But it's not a death knell by any means (not that I think you were saying that).
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tooqk4u22

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Re: Early Retirement Can’t Work, Or I’d Have Heard Of It Before!
« Reply #12 on: July 19, 2012, 10:39:59 AM »
You're right in the sense that if you plan for it then it is not lethal, and if you don't then you can always get part time work to cover the costs - not lethal but not necessarily ER either. 

So while MMM doesn't have healthcare in his spending, it needs to be included whether or not you are paying for it now - I am sure they have it and all that but when he posts about here is what I live on it is artificially low if take out the job benefits.  By all means if you like the work and get the perks then do it, I still think that is FIRE because you are doing it on your own terms but if something changes (such as Mrs. MM quitting) then you need it, and if your budget can't support it then now you are not doing it on your own terms (circular logic?).

So in his healthcare post I think he said the quotes he got would be $12-13k max out of pocket, whether or not that is realized in each year it needs to be part of the budget.

arebelspy

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Re: Early Retirement Can’t Work, Or I’d Have Heard Of It Before!
« Reply #13 on: July 19, 2012, 10:51:06 AM »
So in his healthcare post I think he said the quotes he got would be $12-13k max out of pocket, whether or not that is realized in each year it needs to be part of the budget.

mmm.. maybe.

That goes back to your risk tolerance levels, especially of catastrophic failures.  Some people are happy with a 95% success rate on FIRECalc, others want 100%.

Some people are okay with a 4% SWR, others want 3% (or less!)

Do what will let you sleep at night.
I am a former teacher who accumulated a bunch of real estate, retired at 29, spent some time traveling the world full time and am now settled with three kids.
If you want to know more about me, this Business Insider profile tells the story pretty well.
I (rarely) blog at AdventuringAlong.com. Check out the Now page to see what I'm up to currently.

tooqk4u22

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Re: Early Retirement Can’t Work, Or I’d Have Heard Of It Before!
« Reply #14 on: July 20, 2012, 07:30:29 AM »
So in his healthcare post I think he said the quotes he got would be $12-13k max out of pocket, whether or not that is realized in each year it needs to be part of the budget.

mmm.. maybe.

That goes back to your risk tolerance levels, especially of catastrophic failures.  Some people are happy with a 95% success rate on FIRECalc, others want 100%.

Some people are okay with a 4% SWR, others want 3% (or less!)

Do what will let you sleep at night.

Agreed - no doubt that risk tolerance plays a huge part in all of this.

 

Wow, a phone plan for fifteen bucks!