Author Topic: Doomed Article  (Read 11223 times)

matchewed

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Re: Doomed Article
« Reply #50 on: January 30, 2017, 03:22:28 PM »
I noticed that MMM re-posted this recently, probably because of the remarkable churning of outrage surrounding our new President's many executive actions. Anyone care to weigh in on how their perspectives have changed?

My perspective hasn't changed one bit. I still recommend people rely on building a solid plan and shoring up/mitigating obvious risks. Fear mongering cuts both ways on the political spectrum. If you've done all you can by contacting your representatives and making your voice heard then you've done the actions that are within your sphere of influence. Why would any view on doom or resiliency change because of who is president?

talltexan

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Re: Doomed Article
« Reply #51 on: January 31, 2017, 09:12:48 AM »
To clarify, yes, I saw MMM re-link to this column from his twitter account.

It's an excellent point about the 4% rule being based on a 130 year history that includes quite a bit of social disruption. In particular, FDR's seizure of all the gold doesn't get enough attention (from those Permanent Portfolio types)

madgeylou

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Re: Doomed Article
« Reply #52 on: January 31, 2017, 10:52:54 AM »
I noticed that MMM re-posted this recently, probably because of the remarkable churning of outrage surrounding our new President's many executive actions. Anyone care to weigh in on how their perspectives have changed?

My perspective hasn't changed one bit. I still recommend people rely on building a solid plan and shoring up/mitigating obvious risks. Fear mongering cuts both ways on the political spectrum. If you've done all you can by contacting your representatives and making your voice heard then you've done the actions that are within your sphere of influence. Why would any view on doom or resiliency change because of who is president?

Possibly because this new administration (and, especially, the president's white supremacist senior adviser) are ushering fascism into America?
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dragoncar

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Re: Doomed Article
« Reply #53 on: January 31, 2017, 10:59:49 AM »
To clarify, yes, I saw MMM re-link to this column from his twitter account.

It's an excellent point about the 4% rule being based on a 130 year history that includes quite a bit of social disruption. In particular, FDR's seizure of all the gold doesn't get enough attention (from those Permanent Portfolio types)

I don't think you'll find a single PP investor who has not discussed the gold issue at length. 

Or the survivorship bias issue for equities.

matchewed

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Re: Doomed Article
« Reply #54 on: January 31, 2017, 01:08:48 PM »
I noticed that MMM re-posted this recently, probably because of the remarkable churning of outrage surrounding our new President's many executive actions. Anyone care to weigh in on how their perspectives have changed?

My perspective hasn't changed one bit. I still recommend people rely on building a solid plan and shoring up/mitigating obvious risks. Fear mongering cuts both ways on the political spectrum. If you've done all you can by contacting your representatives and making your voice heard then you've done the actions that are within your sphere of influence. Why would any view on doom or resiliency change because of who is president?

Possibly because this new administration (and, especially, the president's white supremacist senior adviser) are ushering fascism into America?

I wholly disagree with almost everything Trump has said or done or nominated so far. That doesn't fundamentally change my plan though, so I guess my why question doesn't go far enough then.

Assuming your statement above is true, why does that change your view on doom or resiliency?

madgeylou

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Re: Doomed Article
« Reply #55 on: January 31, 2017, 03:30:01 PM »
I noticed that MMM re-posted this recently, probably because of the remarkable churning of outrage surrounding our new President's many executive actions. Anyone care to weigh in on how their perspectives have changed?

My perspective hasn't changed one bit. I still recommend people rely on building a solid plan and shoring up/mitigating obvious risks. Fear mongering cuts both ways on the political spectrum. If you've done all you can by contacting your representatives and making your voice heard then you've done the actions that are within your sphere of influence. Why would any view on doom or resiliency change because of who is president?

Possibly because this new administration (and, especially, the president's white supremacist senior adviser) are ushering fascism into America?

I wholly disagree with almost everything Trump has said or done or nominated so far. That doesn't fundamentally change my plan though, so I guess my why question doesn't go far enough then.

Assuming your statement above is true, why does that change your view on doom or resiliency?

Several reasons:

1) It's possible to increase or decrease one's circle of influence by acting or not acting. Complacency can make things worse for everyone.

2) There are fundamental changes in the way American politics are working, mechanisms of privilege and oppression are being amplified. I'm not just concerned for me

3) Climate change is likely to accelerate as DJT's administration pushes through more fossil-fuel projects, which adds increased uncertainty to all of our plans

4) Based on DJT's statements and tweets, it seems likelier that we will enter a war soon.

All of those spell increased doom and decreased stability to me. Summary: the world is a much less reliable place than it was on Jan 19. Whatever plans we make for ourselves have a much higher probability of not working. Our risk has increased.
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arebelspy

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Re: Doomed Article
« Reply #56 on: January 31, 2017, 10:58:19 PM »
Whatever plans we make for ourselves have a much higher probability of not working. Our risk has increased.

Okay.  But that doesn't mean you shouldn't continue them.

In other words, there still has to be a better alternate to switch to.

You plan has maybe a higher probability of not working, but saving as much as possible and preparing for the future still seems like a good plan, to me.

Adding some activism, maybe more charitable donations, etc. would all be awesome as well.

But scrapping the plan seems like a bad idea, and if not "save as much as I can while attempting to affect change around me," what else would you propose?

EDIT: I want to be clear: the world is much, much worse. We should act to make it better. But we shouldn't despair when doing so. Despair is what they want. Fire and fight is what we need. Vim and vigor. Nothing about that requires more consumerism, or less community-driven values that Mustachians espouse.  You're 100% correct that the world is less safe, for many people. It's terrible.  I'm not arguing that's not so, but agreeing.  I'm just pointing out that the plan to live frugally, simply, and save still is totally relevant, despite the world being worse, and perhaps even MORE valid of a plan.  :)
« Last Edit: January 31, 2017, 11:00:18 PM by arebelspy »
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ariapluscat

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Re: Doomed Article
« Reply #57 on: February 08, 2017, 02:58:09 PM »

That said, I thought this article overstated its case. It's not mature or responsible to just assume that things are awesome today and will always get better, therefore no worries, man.

yep, i'm only 23 but even to me the article seemed oversimplified and short sighted.

also, i'm loving the roman concrete examples. i usually think of the stone working of the andes. there's lots of lost knowledge

cerat0n1a

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Re: Doomed Article
« Reply #58 on: February 08, 2017, 03:32:58 PM »
Seems relevant to this thread to mention Hans Rosling, who passed away recently.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-38900572

His TED talks (and Gapminder.org site) are full of data showing how & why the world keeps getting better.

We're now seeing the Russians manipulate elections in europe as they did in the US and Trump is without doubt going to be a disaster for the US & western world generally, but you have to have faith in your fellow citizens and a set of institutions that has lasted 200+ years, wars, depressions and all and expect long-term damage to be minimal.

talltexan

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Re: Doomed Article
« Reply #59 on: February 09, 2017, 11:11:38 AM »
Hans Rosling indeed was quite a loss. He even had sword-swallowing as one of his hobbies, so you cannot claim he doesn't know a thing or two about risk.

However, his data make plain the decrease in life expectancies associated with WWI/Spanish Flu/Bolshevik revolution...the world may improve in trend even while specific age cohorts are subjected to suffering.