Yet again, I seriously question his claim of serious health issues being rare. The lifetime incidence of cancer is astronomically probable, like 1 in 2. Granted, a lot of cancers are modulated by lifestyle factors, but the chances are still huge, and that's just cancer.
In the blog post, Pete acknowledges that he can afford most medical issues that might pop up, but that others can't, which is a great first step in recognizing the issues with his previous "just don't get sick" types of posts, but I still challenge the very basis of his claim that serious illness is rare.
It really, really isn't.
How valid is his assessment of the value of insurance if his estimation of relative risk of illness is unrealistic?
I'm all for optimism, but as someone with a healthy lifestyle who has been hospitalized multiple times, had multiple surgeries, and is on an extremely expensive medication for life, all for conditions that are unavoidable, who is also a medical professional who has seen first hand how unavoidable many medical conditions are, I cannot subscribe to this version of reality where the risk is "rare".
Yes, but if you combine the direct primary care with a catastrophic care insurance then you are covered at both ends of the spectrum for potentially less money than a regular insurance plan. You also build a relationship with a doctor who has your best interest at heart because you staying healthy keeps you from lots of extra visits.
My big question is what does the $100/month cover? Obviously it covers well checks and obviously not cancer treatments. Where is the cutoff and how well defined is it? This is all theoretical for me right now but if I ever have to shop for my own insurance it has some potential.
I'm not questioning the strategy he's proposing, and I'm happy that he's finally proposing *something* as an alternative to self insuring.
I'm very, very much questioning using language like "extremely rare" to describe serious illnesses or injuries, which is what he uses as the very basis assumption of this whole endeavour.
I'm all for challenging the value of expensive insurance, but his followers reading see statements that he got out his spreadsheets and analyzed the risk vs the cost, which makes it sound like he's being objective about this and actually crunching real actuarial type data.
If he is, I would like to see him share those numbers, which he usually does, but I would also like to see why he can possibly call a serious healthy issue "extremely rare" when they are, in fact, extremely common in a lifetime.
Or is he just proposing this until his actuarial data puts him in a demographic of higher risk? Because he hasn't said that, which is again out of character with his normal "let me show my work" type approach.
Or is none of this based on data, and his claim of calculations is more of a vague understanding of the various costs of illnesses compared to insurance premiums, and his gut instinct that he just won't get cancer, or ever throw a clot, or get hit by a car.
Contrary to a lot of people, I'm actually very open to understanding if there is a reasonable argument for not paying absurd premiums for health insurance. I'm Canadian, so the US system sounds insane to me. I just *insist* on transparent accounting of risk and cost from someone who made themselves famous by breaking down exactly this kind of math into understandable format for readers over whom he has enormous sway.
I don't challenge what he's proposing, because I don't really understand it. I'm Canadian, so it's mostly jibberish to me, but I see a blatant issues with the presuppositions of the basis argument underpinning all of it.
I normally come away from reading MMM content thinking "I get exactly what he's saying" even when I disagree with the delivery, timing, or whatever. But this just leaves me scratching my head going "wait...what?"