you've thrown out some numbers so let's start there.
You estimated your monthly 'gross' spending needs at $6,600 (or $79,200/year).
First quick-and-dirty calculation: with a 4% WR you'd need invested assets of $1,980,000 to sustain that spending rate.
Hmm... not quite to your target.
But wait! 3 years in you'll have an additional $1,200mo, assuming all goes well, and an additional $2,100/mo about a decade later. That will knock the amount you need from your investments from $6,600 to $5,300 (3 years in) and to $3,200 after a decade. Plug those into a simulator like cFIREsim (which accounts for future pensions) to see how they would do in historical scenarios and.... woot! 100% success rate!
...so you're golden, right?
Well... not so fast. I worry that two aspects of your plan may be on shaky ground. The first is the idea that your home will be worth the same that it is today, i your words a "moderate worst-case scenario". This may be, or it may not be. People have been yelling "bubble" for the Toronto market for some time, but for perspective look at what happened to cities like Phoenix, Las Vegas or Bakersfield. a 30% drop (or worse) is possible for large cities. Unfortuantely for you, so much of your net worth is tied to your home (a whopping 73% of your expected portfolio, and 84% of your current portofolio!!). It wouldn't surprise me to see Toronto's market take a big hit.
Second - while 5% real growth just shy of the historical average, its not guaranteed. Even a moderate recession might lead to a 20% loss over the next 5 years, knocking your expected $500k in six years down to about $296,000 even with annual contibutions of $18k/year* 5 years. Recessions happen and its histically unliklely that we'll get by another 5 years without one.
Plugging more pessimistic numbers into cFIREsim (home value of $1.12MM, investments of $296k) gives you a stash of just over $1.3M, and a WR of $56k/year. Not quite high enough to hit your target, but still nothing to sneeze at given some pessimistic assumptions.
Bad news: if you keep your spending rate around $79k, even with your expected pensions you have a 30 year historical success rate of just 56%. Not bad but certainly not golden.
So what to do? Well, your expenses do seem rather high, particualrly for this board. Cut that back to just $5,500/mo (still a whopping $66,000, or more than the median income of Canadian households) and your success during the more pessimistic scenario jumps to 75%.
It's also worth pointing out that you could quit today sell your house for $1.6MM and have $6k/mo ($72k) to live off of indefinitely with a 4% WR.