Kingsbaker,
That break down and explanation makes more sense. Those look reasonable for the most part (phone should be lower if only one line). I would challenge you still on the gym expense. Consider that you could spend $1,680 to purchase your own equipment for a home gym, and that would cover 1 year’s expense of going to the gym. The other thing that stands out are supplements, but that is also going to be a personal choice based on your health requirements. If you could somehow eliminate both of those, that reduces your amount needed to FIRE by $63,000. Those are just points to consider. Your expenses are so low that if you consider that part of your happiness I'm not going to fault you for it.
Your net worth not counting primary residence:
401k/IRA: $136k
Stocks: $11k
HSA: $5.4k
Emergency Fund: $20k
Business Fund: $60k
Equity in Rentals if sold: $677k
Total without Paying off Mortgage: $909,400
Total after Paying off Mortgage: $504,400
That doesn’t take into account the taxes/realtor fees for selling the rentals.
Based on your expenses, your Stash needs to be:
Sell Rentals, Do not pay down mortgage: $1,260,000
Sell Rentals, Pay down Mortgage: $630,000
How much is needed to hit those goals?
Sell Rentals, Do not pay down mortgage: $1,260,000 – $909,400 = $350,600
Sell Rentals, Pay down Mortgage: $630,000 – 504,400 = $125,600
Your P&I is literally half of your expenses. I think it actually makes sense to pay off your house in this case, all in one shot by selling the rentals. Assuming you are looking to FIRE ASAP. I understand the argument for normally not paying off the house, but in your case you can actually FIRE much sooner with a paid off house as opposed to keeping the cash and paying it down slowly.
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One other thing I noticed. When you first posted, your variable expenses mentioned restaurants as part of them. Your detailed version does not. Is that missing and making your expenses lower? Do you pay for Netflix or Amazon?
You’re in a great situation. You could sell the rentals, pay down the mortgage, and work the two to three years you mentioned before having a kid and save a lot extra, nearly $300k more.
All, if I’m looking at those numbers above incorrectly in regards to the difference between paying down the mortgage vs investing it, please feel free to point it out. I know it goes against the grain of the normal advice here, and it makes me think I’m missing something.