Yes, the 120 years of stock market data generally used for things like cFIREsim and research backing up the 4% “rule” has seen periods of extraordinary growth. It has also seen things like Black Friday, the Great Depression, stagflation, the Great Recession, and so forth to counteract those rosy periods. I recommend you seek out the thread talking about why you shouldn’t worry about the 4% rule (it is a sticky in one sub forum, investing, I think?) It has a lot of good insight from smart people. I especially like some graphs in that thread showing your risk of portfolio failure versus your risk of being dead over time. I think it is easy to get fixated on the risk of running out of money to a degré that you can lose perspective.