Author Topic: Fire/Retirement - (Not) possible for everyone in US  (Read 2850 times)

tampaite

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Fire/Retirement - (Not) possible for everyone in US
« on: June 26, 2019, 07:19:34 AM »
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« Last Edit: June 28, 2019, 08:33:13 AM by tampaite »

tamuaggie2011

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Re: Fire/Retirement - Not possible for everyone in US
« Reply #1 on: June 26, 2019, 08:02:50 AM »
I'm not sure where you got the 19T number from exactly but it's not relevant to the answer.

The logical fallacy here is that the money in circulation is equal to or greater than the combined wealth of a country.  This is just simply not true. Secondly even if it were however, no one who retires (whether through FIRE or working in a cubicle till 67) needs all their savings all at once. Each person would only take out the cash they need on a yearly basis. Meanwhile society is still functioning and younger generations are earning more and saving more themselves.

Hope this helps

Metalcat

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Re: Fire/Retirement - Not possible for everyone in US
« Reply #2 on: June 26, 2019, 08:34:53 AM »
Not everyone will retire at the same time, 50K/person would mean 100K/couple, which is excessive, plus everything said by PP.

MDM

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MDM

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Re: Fire/Retirement - Not possible for everyone in US
« Reply #4 on: June 26, 2019, 10:27:31 AM »
Check The Fed - Chart: Balance Sheet of Households and Nonprofit Organizations, 1952 - 2019.  Yes, it seems possible.

Thanks for the link, the one I was looking for but according to this, assets are only at 125T no where near to 156T.

Perhaps, it will be closer to 156T as economy grows and households in their 20s and 30s begin to save more.

Thanks all - I think, we have enough money in circulation :)
Yes, if one looks at the doubling of net assets from 2004 to now, it seems possible.  Likely?  That's a different question....

SwordGuy

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Re: Fire/Retirement - (Not) possible for everyone in US
« Reply #5 on: June 26, 2019, 10:52:45 AM »
We have 125 MILLION households in the US currently and if everyone wanted to be in FIRE mode then, each of them needs to have saved 25x their annual expense by the time they hit their 50s.
,
If we say $50K is average annual expense then we need 156.25 TRILLION dollars saved which is impractical.

US economy is only 19T so what am I missing?

1. We just don't have that kind of currency printed so how will households save?

Printed currency is only a tiny fraction of our money supply.  Most of our "money" is actually 1s and 0s in computer systems.   

I don't save dollar bills.  I invest dollars.   I've never actually seen most of the dollars I've invested.   Seriously, I'm 60 years old, have a multi-million dollar net worth, and I've never saved or invested more than $1000 in actual hard cash in my life.    I've invested paychecks.  I've invested gift checks.  And a few actual $100 bills I got as Christmas presents.

Seriously, this question makes me wonder whether you actually have an understanding of how our economy works at all.   

You do know that when you put money into the bank, almost all of it doesn't just sit in the bank vaults gathering dust? 

Hopefully someone will recommend a good book or video that explains this stuff to you.


2. Does this mean some families will perpetually be in poverty eating ramen noodles?
No.   But some families will do that for other reasons, some of which are their own damn fault and some of which are due to being exploited and others due to bad luck over health issues.

3. Does this mean some of us will practically have to work until we die?
See answer to #2 above.

Perhaps, we need to dial down expectations of FIRE mode ?

I know this will derail into politics - I urge you to resist going off topic and if you go off-topic, slap yourself and come back and stick with the discussion which is "do we have enough money in circulation TODAY that everyone could save 25x their annual expense"?

Of course not.   That's foolishness.    Money circulates.  The same dollar may be used by many different households or organizations over the course of the year.  They actually measure that, by the way.

As soon as I put a dollar in the bank most of it becomes available to be lent to someone else.   That person spends the money with another person and then that seller puts the same money back into the bank, where it's lent to someone else, etc.  That's a very simplistic example to illustrate the concept.

malachite

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Re: Fire/Retirement - (Not) possible for everyone in US
« Reply #6 on: June 26, 2019, 12:27:17 PM »
This post led me down an interesting thought path:

If "Everyone wanted to be in FIRE mode" can be translated to something like "Everyone can work for 20 years and have 25x annual expenses in savings' then it might be theoretically possible for everyone to be in FIRE mode. 

The theoretical limit here would seem to be: "Is it possible for the average person to survive comfortably on only 20 years of average per-person economic output?" If the answer to this is no, then there simply isn't enough labor being performed to create enough resources to sustain everyone. This will raise prices, which will result in people being forced back to work, or will create shortages which result in people lowering consumption.

For a practical perspective there will be additional factors that effect this limit, such as:
1) Wastage (not everything that is made will be consumed)
2) Sustained population growth/reduction, which will mess with the consumer/producer balance (for instance the anticipated effect of baby boomers retiring)
3) Individual workers will need to work more/less time to achieve an 'average' level of economic output (and thus cash) depending on skill/circumstances
4) Individual workers will need to have more/less total economic output (cash) than 'average' depending on their preferred level of resource consumption
5) Net trade balance with other countries (the resource pool in the US is definitely not produced solely in the US)

From a 'does the math work' perspective, the previous commenters have it right -> If the US had a stable and uniform population and some sort of 'ideal' socialism that distributed all money evenly, everyone could probably be able to retire after 20 years of work:
    (2019 USPerCapitaYearlyGDP X 20 yearsOfSaving / 25) -> $20,000,000,000,000/330,000,000X20/25~=48.5k (2019 dollars) per year per person in retirement
48k per person/year is DEFINITELY large enough for a single person to survive on.

However, in a free society, factors 3 & 4 will almost certainly result in some people who can retire much earlier than average and other who will retire much later (or who can never retire at all)

sisto

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Re: Fire/Retirement - (Not) possible for everyone in US
« Reply #7 on: June 26, 2019, 12:33:01 PM »
Your biggest mistake is assuming $50K/yr on average, there are tons of people doing it on half that or less.

GuitarStv

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Re: Fire/Retirement - (Not) possible for everyone in US
« Reply #8 on: June 26, 2019, 12:36:49 PM »
We don't live in a world where one in ten will pursue FIRE.  I'm not sure that it makes any kind of sense losing sleep predicting what the world would look like if one of the fundamental constants changed.

Ynari

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Re: Fire/Retirement - (Not) possible for everyone in US
« Reply #9 on: June 26, 2019, 01:44:09 PM »
This post led me down an interesting thought path:

If "Everyone wanted to be in FIRE mode" can be translated to something like "Everyone can work for 20 years and have 25x annual expenses in savings' then it might be theoretically possible for everyone to be in FIRE mode. 

The theoretical limit here would seem to be: "Is it possible for the average person to survive comfortably on only 20 years of average per-person economic output?" If the answer to this is no, then there simply isn't enough labor being performed to create enough resources to sustain everyone. This will raise prices, which will result in people being forced back to work, or will create shortages which result in people lowering consumption.

For a practical perspective there will be additional factors that effect this limit, such as:
1) Wastage (not everything that is made will be consumed)
2) Sustained population growth/reduction, which will mess with the consumer/producer balance (for instance the anticipated effect of baby boomers retiring)
3) Individual workers will need to work more/less time to achieve an 'average' level of economic output (and thus cash) depending on skill/circumstances
4) Individual workers will need to have more/less total economic output (cash) than 'average' depending on their preferred level of resource consumption
5) Net trade balance with other countries (the resource pool in the US is definitely not produced solely in the US)

From a 'does the math work' perspective, the previous commenters have it right -> If the US had a stable and uniform population and some sort of 'ideal' socialism that distributed all money evenly, everyone could probably be able to retire after 20 years of work:
    (2019 USPerCapitaYearlyGDP X 20 yearsOfSaving / 25) -> $20,000,000,000,000/330,000,000X20/25~=48.5k (2019 dollars) per year per person in retirement
48k per person/year is DEFINITELY large enough for a single person to survive on.

However, in a free society, factors 3 & 4 will almost certainly result in some people who can retire much earlier than average and other who will retire much later (or who can never retire at all)

I think you nail it on what the true question is. There have been previous threads on "If everyone FIRE'd there'd be no one working! The economy would collapse!" which misses the point that people are continuously in different stages of their career. I might even think of it this way: the life expectancy is around 80 years old. Say we take the 20 years of work figure (everyone retires in their 40s, more or less), that means about 1/4 of the population is working at any given point. (Malachite pointed out a lot of reasons why this absolute generality would never be true, but we're in theory-world, so hold on to your pants.) Is that a reasonable amount? Could society maintain a good standard of living on this amount of production?

One useful concept here is dependency ratios (usually dependency ratios only look at children and elderly, not stay at home parents and working-aged individuals studying or not looking for work, so these numbers are actually lower than reality). In the US, this dependency ratio is 51 dependents:100 working-age adults, or about 34%. In aging countries like Japan, 64:100, close to 40% (again, not counting working aged adults who are not working, like college students or NEETs.) You can argue that the higher dependency ratio is taking a toll on the economy, but is it taking a toll on the quality of life of citizens? It seems that a low % of workers leads to stagnation, but not necessarily regression, in quality of life, particularly due to efficiency gains for those who are currently working. Keynes suggested that by his grandkid's time (roughly now), people would choose to work only 15 hours a week. That's equivalent to 38 full-time positions per 100 workers - if I adjust the current dependency ratio, theoretically we'd have a new dependency ratio of 113:38. 75% of our population not working! Or only 1/4 of our population working, just like in the 20/80 year question.

I think 20-year careers (or their part time "coast" equivalents) are theoretically possible, but psychologically improbable. People LIKE to stay busy. People LIKE to improve their quality of life. They don't often stop to think about the value they're getting for their time. The benchmark is moving - people in Keynes's time didn't have it all sunshine and rainbows, so some of the cost is in increasing baseline quality of life. The "average" standard of living has also become more expensive (fancier houses, more expensive education, new technologies). I think everybody COULD choose 20-year careers and the world would keep on just fine, but it'd come with trade offs in reducing marginal/wasteful consumption that some associate with modern living, and slowing down the economy.

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: Fire/Retirement - (Not) possible for everyone in US
« Reply #10 on: June 26, 2019, 05:27:02 PM »
I disagree with the hypothetical that all, a majority, or even a significant minority of the population will try to FIRE. This is truly a niche of a niche. I doubt that 10% of the population could even identify what it means. And far fewer are interested in pursuing it.  It’s kind of like asking what would happen to the cigarette industry if all smokers were to suddenly quit. That isn’t going to happen in spite of it being generally known that smoking will kill you. If we can’t get people to quit smoking, what makes us think that we’ll somehow persuade mass numbers of people to sign on for the long term discipline, sacrifice, and attention to detail that FI requires?

In answer to the questions:
1. Don’t agree that it’ll ever happen, so why worry about it.
2. Yes.
3. Yes.  You can help cure ignorance. You might gently persuade. You can’t help someone who refuses to help themselves.

No politics necessary.
« Last Edit: June 26, 2019, 05:29:44 PM by Buffalo Chip »

BicycleB

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Re: Fire/Retirement - (Not) possible for everyone in US
« Reply #11 on: June 26, 2019, 07:37:18 PM »
Was doing the math and correct me if am wrong.

We have 125 MILLION households in the US currently and if everyone wanted to be in FIRE mode then, each of them needs to have saved 25x their annual expense by the time they hit their 50s.
,
If we say $50K is average annual expense then we need 156.25 TRILLION dollars saved which is impractical.

US economy is only 19T so what am I missing?

You're missing errors of classification. Others have pointed this out in different words. Just to be clear, 19 trillion is dollars of Gross Domestic Product in one year, effectively national income. It's an income amount. The 156 trillion you calculated is savings. That's an asset amount. Different category.

FIRE usually occurs by individuals choosing a lower spending rate than typical consumers, then investing the difference until investment income covers the lower spend. If everyone in America did this, spending would be lower than $50,000 per year, but everyone would be safe and happy with their lower income. Supposing a savings rate of 50% that roughly matches your proposal, presumably income would be about half of today, but work careers would be about 17 years instead of 35. I take that to mean that yes, there is enough money to do this.

Obviously if everyone did it, some details of earning patterns, spending patterns and possibly asset prices might change. The general fact remains that if we spent about half as much as most people do, we could work about half as much and still have enough money.

US economy is only 19T so what am I missing?

1. We just don't have that kind of currency printed so how will households save?
2. Does this mean some families will perpetually be in poverty eating ramen noodles?
3. Does this mean some of us will practically have to work until we die?

Perhaps, we need to dial down expectations of FIRE mode ?


1. As noted by others, the issue isn't about printing money. Households will save like Mustachians if they decide to spend half their income and invest the rest.
2. Some families are already in poverty eating ramen noodles. Mustachianism doesn't require an increase in that though.
3. Mustachian masses do not require anyone to work until they die. A few individuals die in their 30s but that happens anyway.

No, we do not need to dial down expactations of FIRE mode.

PS. By the way, the government creates money more or less at will, using several methods. The money supply shrinks and expends based on economic conditions and government policy. Relative to changes of the size you propose, money supply can roughly be assumed to grow or shrink as needed. It is not a primary barrier.

My description in the paragraph above is obviously a simplification, and some arguments can be made for or against it. But I think it's a fair summary. If any actual economists wish to opine, I will probably defer. Certainly I will stipulate that specifics of a change this size cannot be definitively known in advance. But thinking "there's not enough currency" - you asked for that to be the thread topic, yet I think it's an incorrect premise. Hopefully it's OK that I viewed the deeper question as "Could the economy sustain itself and support the people if everyone tried to be Mustachian". 


« Last Edit: June 26, 2019, 07:56:55 PM by BicycleB »