Author Topic: Case study: fear versus numbers  (Read 5363 times)

network_chick

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Case study: fear versus numbers
« on: June 23, 2019, 06:08:15 PM »
Hey there--long-time lurker, finally created an account to post and get some feedback. Apologies for the wall of text; I can't really discuss the details of my situation with friends, so this is going to be therapy as much as anything else.

Long story short: I have a lot of money, and I feel like I should probably be more comfortable about my situation at this point, but I've spent so many years saving and living somewhat frugally with the philosophy "hope for the best but plan for the worst" that I fear I am now stuck in "the worst" mindset.

So: 50 year old unmarried female in the US. No kids. I've been with my boyfriend for 7ish years, though with a break of about a year in there, which was ultimately good for both of us to get our shit together. We don't live together.

After a career change in my late 20s, I moved into tech, and after a few years at the bottom of the ladder I was able to move up. I was never making astronomical Bay Area tech company salaries, but reached a point where I was consistently making much higher than the average professional salaries for my northeastern midsize city.

Over the next 15ish years, I continued to work hard, with some shifts in my professional trajectory over time--moving from one area of specialization to another, and eventually about 5 years ago transitioning into a management position.

By a few years ago, I had saved up around $1M, maybe a little more, between regular savings, investments, and 401(k) and IRAs. No debt. (After a few years of home ownership off and on, I decided it wasn't for me at that point in my life, and I rent by choice, although I'm willing to buy again in the future.)

A death in the family a few years ago led to me receiving an inheritance of around $2M, in the form of brokerage accounts (IRA and non-IRA).

I've been thinking more lately about what my next steps should be, especially as I turned 50, which brings with it all sorts of thoughts about mortality and what you want the rest of your life to look like. Work has been really stressful for me the last few years. (I moved to a new job about a year ago but it turned out to be stressful in new and different ways from my last job!)

The numbers--

Cash, CDs, etc.: $418,000 (holy crap, did not realize it was that much, it's scattered in various accounts and banks and I hadn't actually totaled it recently)

Non-retirement investment accounts and some individual stocks: $2,326,000

Retirement investment accounts: $912,000

Total: $3,656,000

No debt.

My annual expenses the last few years have been hovering just under $30k. Of course, my health insurance has always been provided by my employer, so I know that if I chose to retire or at least move to part-time work or something that doesn't provide benefits, those costs could go up significantly for me.

As I mentioned up top, one thing that's been really hard for me is not really being able to talk to friends about my situation. I have a CPA and some professionals who manage some of the investment accounts, and their response when I talk to them about possibly wanting to retire, take a break, or downshift my career to something significantly lower-paying than I earn now is "You have plenty of money and you don't spend a lot, you're ideally positioned to do this if you want."

But I have a lot of fears about this leap--something catastrophic and unprecedented happening to the markets, ACA going away and healthcare becoming unaffordable if you don't have an employer plan and are too young for Medicare... Basically I feel like I have a lot of years left in which to regret this decision, and I'm a worrier by nature, so I keep staring at the numbers and continuing to worry.

On another level, I suspect I'm also struggling with not knowing what I could shift *to* if I made a change. It's easy to say "Go do something meaningful" but harder to figure out how exactly to do that, since even "meaningful" jobs need people with relevant skills and experience, and I feel sometimes like my skills have become sort of niche due to the way my career progressed.

And finally, I think being single/no kids makes me feel like I truly have no safety net. I have the boyfriend, and I have friends of varying degrees of closeness, but I do sometimes have that "Who's gonna change my diaper when I'm 80?" thought keeping me up at night.

What do you all think? Should those numbers be enough to make me stop worrying? Kicks in the pants absolutely welcome.

legalstache

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Re: Case study: fear versus numbers
« Reply #1 on: June 23, 2019, 06:26:39 PM »
You can absolutely quit and do whatever you want starting immediately. Your assets are more than just about any case study I’ve seen. Your spending also is very low. If you can’t retire early with that level of savings and spending, there’s not much hope for the rest of us.

Perhaps the tougher part is figuring out what to do next. Do you have any hobbies/interests you’ve been wanting to spend more time pursuing? Travel? Downshifting to part time at current job?

network_chick

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Re: Case study: fear versus numbers
« Reply #2 on: June 23, 2019, 06:41:22 PM »
Thanks for those quick responses! lhamo you're spot on regarding a counselor--I just started in therapy. One of my questions is whether this is a job problem or a me problem (i.e., is the stress and unhappiness I'm feeling at my job something I would be feeling about whatever else in life I'm doing instead). So I'm trying to work through what exactly about the job has me unhappy, and are there things about it that are changeable, before walking away. I already do some volunteer work and I would happily fill my days doing that if I do end up leaving paid work for good and feel comfortable not taking another job for a paycheck.

legalstache, due to my role in my current organization, I don't think shifting to part-time is doable. I have lots of hobbies and interests and don't think I would hurt for ways to fill my time if I were to leave my job now--but I think if I retire this young, I'd want to do see what I could do to make a difference in the world. I'm starting to explore local organizations addressing climate and the environment, and as I mentioned above, am already volunteering with a few other organizations.

I think i just needed to share those numbers in a way that I can't do with my friends or even my therapist, and give myself a little sanity check. Thank you so much!

cal

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Re: Case study: fear versus numbers
« Reply #3 on: June 23, 2019, 07:22:48 PM »
I would echo what others have said. You can always go back to work, though I can't imagine needing to.

BicycleB

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Re: Case study: fear versus numbers
« Reply #4 on: June 23, 2019, 11:58:37 PM »
Early 50something here. I feel like I understand your concerns!

Like others, I feel strongly you can resign immediately. You don't need to work unless you like going there.

The issue of what you're retiring TO is the biggest one, IMHO. However, you don't sound like someone who is determined to be unhappy, so if you dislike the work, quitting and then figuring out what you want seems viable. It's possible that pushing yourself at some point to try things or explore possibilities would be a good idea. But since you've worked steadily for decades, most likely a simple six month break to unwind is a good start. If you get to a year, you feel unhappy AND you haven't started doing anything new, consciously start exploring new activities.


But I have a lot of fears about this leap--something catastrophic and unprecedented happening to the markets, ACA going away and healthcare becoming unaffordable if you don't have an employer plan and are too young for Medicare...

It's almost certain that something unprecedented will happen to the markets, but that won't affect you. At 30k spend, your stash could collapse by two thirds and still carry you just fine. Anyway markets have never stayed down. You only need a to sell a tiny fraction of stock per year, the other years will soon be golden. You're safe for anything short of global socialist revolution (which...isn't gonna happen).

ACA's not going anywhere because other people need it too, but if it does, you're double covered: You could viably self insure, or you could pay big bucks for five or ten years to have coverage. Both would work fine for you.

Basically I feel like I have a lot of years left in which to regret this decision, and I'm a worrier by nature, so I keep staring at the numbers and continuing to worry.

Your nature may never change, but at some point you have to Feel the Fear and Do It Anyway. Kind of like going to work, but more satisfying. The time is now. Quit!

I have a friend who's a worrier. He likes taking the negative view of things; it reassures him. Were he in your shoes, I'd say: "Dude. You need to quit your job so you can worry full time. Clearly this is your true vocation. Think how much you could worry with all day to focus on it. Carve out new frontiers of creative worrying. Your new career awaits."


And finally, I think being single/no kids makes me feel like I truly have no safety net. I have the boyfriend, and I have friends of varying degrees of closeness, but I do sometimes have that "Who's gonna change my diaper when I'm 80?" thought keeping me up at night.


This one I know in detail. Taking the negative approach - hey, even if you're married, you don't have a safety net. Your husband could suck up your time, drain your finances and then die before he helps you.

What you do have is brains, humanity, and resources. I suggest keeping your network active; getting living will drawn up; defining any specific desires you have for your care in the event of your incapacity; and doing what you can to communicate these desires to people who may help you.

My sister and I took care of our Dad during his Alzheimer's. We have discussed what type of care we want if something like that happens to us, and put documents in place to make those desires happen.

A job won't take care of any of the things in this section. You're associating the familiarity of work with the false idea that the familiar will hold your generalized fears at bay. Move on.

Good luck!! And keep us posted. :)

Omy

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Re: Case study: fear versus numbers
« Reply #5 on: June 24, 2019, 12:58:45 AM »
I'm the married version of you, network_chick. I have plenty of money but have worked at least 5 years longer than necessary due to fear. I'm a bit older than you and have had a few relatively minor health scares that have helped me realize that life is short and it's time to start enjoying the fruits of our labor. At this point, you have next to 0% chance of going broke. And being single with your net worth is much safer since you only have to account for your expenses in later life (not two people) and you don't have to worry about dividing by 2 because of divorce.

Check out this calculator if you haven't already...it helped give me the confidence to make the leap after too many years of fear:

https://engaging-data.com/will-money-last-retire-early/

Re-read "Money and Confidence are Interchangeable".

Stop trading time for money. You have way more than enough.

former player

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Re: Case study: fear versus numbers
« Reply #6 on: June 24, 2019, 04:26:29 AM »
Another single, childless professional woman here, retired aged 50 9 years ago.  I did have something to retire to: a new life in the country that I'd already made a start on by buying a house there some years ago and involving myself in the life as much as was possible given working part-time in the city.  I wouldn't change a day of it for more work or more money.

I get you on the questions about the future.  But, realistically, working more isn't going to help you there: the workplace is a largely fake community built around the needs of an organisation that are not your needs and which sooner or later is going to say goodbye to you and leave you on your own.  In fact, continuing to work is getting in the way of building the life, the community and the connections that will sustain you through later years.

network_chick

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Re: Case study: fear versus numbers
« Reply #7 on: June 24, 2019, 05:06:08 AM »
Just want to thank you all again for this terrific feedback. The insights about work getting in the way of building the life I want, and the exchange of time for money, are things I really needed to hear. I'm going to be rereading the posts in this thread for some time. So glad I decided to finally create an account and join this community!

twell1

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Re: Case study: fear versus numbers
« Reply #8 on: June 24, 2019, 08:09:41 AM »
Hi Network_Chick.  I'm in an almost identical situation as you.  $3.5M in assets, no home, and 50 years old.  My one difference is I have been averaging around $70k of expenses (I pay way to much in rent !).  I also tend to worry about my "stache."  I've set up spreadsheets to show the ridiculousness of my worries.  I calculate how much extra I have to spend in dollars ($140k safe withdrawal vs. $70-80K of traditional expense = $60-70k per year of extra money) and what my current withdrawal rate would mean vs a market collapse (basically, I could lose half my net worth and still be safe).  I also did a spreadsheet with a doomsday scenario - stock market crashes, Healthcare is $1,500/month...) to see if I could survive.  By modeling everything out, I find it takes away the fear of the unknown. 

network_chick

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Re: Case study: fear versus numbers
« Reply #9 on: June 24, 2019, 10:20:33 AM »
Thanks twell1--more helpful input. I do think part of what is driving this fear for me (besides being a worrier in general) is how unique our situations are. It's not typical to be in a position to retire comfortably at 50, and so I keep thinking that it's gotta be a mistake. And part of why I finally decided to post here...I was looking at the people around me, whose lives and goals are so different from mine, and taking my cues from them.

BTW I feel like I should acknowledge that the inheritance--something I didn't earn, it just showed up--is what makes this even possible. I suspect I'm also feeling some guilt about this and it may be playing into my hesitation about retiring.

LifeHappens

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Re: Case study: fear versus numbers
« Reply #10 on: June 24, 2019, 10:45:17 AM »
BTW I feel like I should acknowledge that the inheritance--something I didn't earn, it just showed up--is what makes this even possible. I suspect I'm also feeling some guilt about this and it may be playing into my hesitation about retiring.
You already had $1 million saved up, with annual expenses in the $30k range. Using the 4% rule, you could have withdrawn $40,000 every year and already been retired with the money you personally earned and saved. You could donate the entirety of your inheritance to charity and STILL be able to FIRE.

affordablehousing

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Re: Case study: fear versus numbers
« Reply #11 on: June 24, 2019, 12:48:14 PM »
One other thing to consider, which perhaps may make you feel less burdened and anxious by a calamity befalling you in the general "you" sense is that if there was such an economic upheaval that those with 120 times their annual spending in savings are impacted, almost ALL of America will be homeless. Just food for thought.

Evasion

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Re: Case study: fear versus numbers
« Reply #12 on: June 25, 2019, 02:02:08 AM »
Everything has been said already, just set up a conservative allocation and enjoy life.
I feel that you could benefit from reading again from the guru himself, he covers this quite a bit in this article
https://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2018/03/09/money-and-confidence-are-interchangeable/

mrmoonymartian

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Re: Case study: fear versus numbers
« Reply #13 on: June 25, 2019, 04:32:27 AM »
Damn America must be messed up! Millions invested and still cowering from the ACA bogeyman. Suggest you book a flight to India or something to get some perspective. If you are still afraid for yourself after watching street kids drink from the gutter for a while, don't bother wasting your time on shrinks. Just keep working and eventually you will die.

MrThatsDifferent

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Re: Case study: fear versus numbers
« Reply #14 on: June 25, 2019, 11:33:49 PM »
Yeah, I’m confused. You’re a long time lurker, which means you’re familiar with MMM. He quit with $800k and a kid on the way and you’ve got $3.6m and you’re worried about health care? I can’t even wrap my head around your fear. You’re fine. You’ve been fine. Go free. Work out how to have cheap health care and live your best life.

network_chick

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Re: Case study: fear versus numbers
« Reply #15 on: June 26, 2019, 05:27:29 AM »
My numbers on the annual expenses are quite accurate--all my expenditures are tracked in software. And appreciate the feedback on my worries being ridiculous. You've been heard. Thanks all.

civil4life

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Re: Case study: fear versus numbers
« Reply #16 on: June 26, 2019, 03:50:08 PM »
Only thing I will add is submit your letter of resignation asap.

HovEratoTo

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Re: Case study: fear versus numbers
« Reply #17 on: June 26, 2019, 06:28:41 PM »
I can sympathize with the psychological side of what you're going through. Last year I realized we had enough saved up, I could walk away from my job after getting mostly to FIRE. Husband agreed he'd be fine working for another 5 years until we hit our roomy FIRE goal. But I agonized over it for months. I didn't like my job, I was having daily panic attacks, and I STILL couldn't walk away. I'd been in the job for a long time, put my all into it, and just couldn't imagine life any other way. Who was I without my job? What the heck would I do with my time?

Anyway, my point being, I know a lot of people on here are trigger happy for you to resign, but I think it's ok to acknowledge this is a HUGE transition, you didn't anticipate having this much money at this point in your life, and it's going to take some time to work through what you want next. It's weird. When I was going through my "fi-sis" someone recommended this blog: https://livingafi.com/2015/01/20/midlife-fi-sis/ and it really helped me to see how someone else had struggled with the mental and emotional side of early retirement. (I'm 32, so my retirement is especially unusual.)

Also, I quit, and 8 months later I took a contracting gig at the SAME company. I know I know, but I was still struggling to process. Needless to say, I scratched the itch and now I can't WAIT to finish my contract and get on to other things with my life. The journey looks different for all of us, so work on a timeline that feels comfortable to you.

foghorn

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Re: Case study: fear versus numbers
« Reply #18 on: June 28, 2019, 06:28:59 AM »
Hello OP - I think you might be my psychological twin.

About two years ago I wrote the following Case Study and many of my concerns were similar to yours. 


https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/case-studies/at-a-crossroads/msg1683487/#msg1683487


Since the writing of this Case Study I rejoined the work force - full time and have continued to save.  That, plus a rising stock market have put my current Net Worth at about $3.2 million. 

If you read the Case Study, you will see that the great people here encouraged me to FIRE.  Sadly, my level of fear put me back into the work world. 

I tell you this, not because I can encourage you to FIRE (although it sure looks like you can) - I tell you this to let you know there are others who face the same fear as you. 

I am also a worrier by nature and envision a day many years from now where I am far too old to work and have managed to run out of money.  Then I will be the big fool who left a good paying job in his 50's and the whole situation blew up on me when I could have continued to work.

This whole process can take a long time to process mentally.  I am now making more concrete plans to actually FIRE, although I do seem to be in a serious case of OMY syndrome. 

Best of luck to you in this mental journey.  The MMM site has been incredibly helpful to me - and I hope it will be you as well.
« Last Edit: June 28, 2019, 07:47:05 AM by foghorn »

ericrugiero

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Re: Case study: fear versus numbers
« Reply #19 on: June 28, 2019, 08:18:15 AM »
OP.  I'm seeing two issues in what you have written. 

One, the worrying is normal for us as human beings but you seem to be overdoing it.  Remember, there is risk in working to long as well.  You just need to balance the risk.  Which would you rather do, run out of money for the last year of your life and not live in luxury or waste the next ten years doing something you don't enjoy.  Now consider that if you continue working in your current job you have 100% chance of the 2nd scenario (based on the fact that you don't seem to enjoy the job).  If you retire now, you have an extremely small chance of running out of money. Most of the scenarios where your run out are such catastrophic economic failures that even working 10 years and tripling your current stache would only slightly reduce the risk. 

Two, you don't strike me as being content with your current life.  (I may be reading that wrong.  If so, I apologize.) You need to find something that's a passion and you really want to do.  This won't be popular here, but I would suggest visiting a good Christian church if you don't already do that.  Regardless, doing something where you are helping others and making a difference will probably be rewarding. 

Congratulations, you are in a situation where you can choose what to do with your life.  Financially, you are about as safe as you can be.  Figure out a good (safe) asset allocation that is well diversified.  Personally, I would try to diversify in asset class (stocks, bonds, cash, REIT's) as well as internationally so that if our country does poorly you still have money.   Also, figure out what you want to do with the rest of your life.  If that includes working, there is nothing wrong with that.  If that is being retired, you are in great shape and can start today.  You could even up your spending a bit if that's something you want. 

erutio

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Re: Case study: fear versus numbers
« Reply #20 on: June 28, 2019, 10:21:40 AM »
Try using the Rick, Broke, or Dead calculator:

https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/welcome-to-the-forum/rich-broke-or-dead-visualizing-probabilities-of-outcomes-in-early-retirement/

It will hopefully give you some perspective.  You will either die, die rich, or die extremely rich.  You have essentially zero chance of going broke.

Linea_Norway

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Re: Case study: fear versus numbers
« Reply #21 on: June 28, 2019, 11:49:53 AM »
Hello OP - I think you might be my psychological twin.

About two years ago I wrote the following Case Study and many of my concerns were similar to yours. 


https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/case-studies/at-a-crossroads/msg1683487/#msg1683487


Since the writing of this Case Study I rejoined the work force - full time and have continued to save.  That, plus a rising stock market have put my current Net Worth at about $3.2 million. 

If you read the Case Study, you will see that the great people here encouraged me to FIRE.  Sadly, my level of fear put me back into the work world. 

I tell you this, not because I can encourage you to FIRE (although it sure looks like you can) - I tell you this to let you know there are others who face the same fear as you. 

I am also a worrier by nature and envision a day many years from now where I am far too old to work and have managed to run out of money.  Then I will be the big fool who left a good paying job in his 50's and the whole situation blew up on me when I could have continued to work.

This whole process can take a long time to process mentally.  I am now making more concrete plans to actually FIRE, although I do seem to be in a serious case of OMY syndrome. 

Best of luck to you in this mental journey.  The MMM site has been incredibly helpful to me - and I hope it will be you as well.

I am also a natural worrier. But since I made a detailed FIRE spreadsheet, the numbers convinced me. You can put as much margin as you want in that spreadsheet, like an unexpected expense of 100K 10 years ahead. And see how that works out. So I invite you and the OP to make a detailed financial plan. Put in many parameters for stock market growth and for your expenses, your SWR. Just try out all variations that you think might appear. My DH has been playing with the parameters and that made him comfortable last year, with just OMY..

Bernard

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Re: Case study: fear versus numbers
« Reply #22 on: June 30, 2019, 09:55:01 AM »
I feel a lot of sympathy for you.
You are wealthy as sh*t, most certainly way beyond-and-above the 1% of people in the 330,000,000-soul country, but you are living a life in fear. I can't even imagine how many people would offer one of their limbs, or kidneys, or children, for having $1M as a retirement stash, and you have 4 times as much. You can withdraw $100,000 per year, live 'til you have become the oldest living soul on the planet, and there would still be tons of money in the bank left.

You need help, but not financial help. As you indicated, everyone whose job it is to know about money tells you the truth but you still don't believe them. You need therapy.
« Last Edit: June 30, 2019, 09:56:42 AM by Bernard »

Roadrunner53

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Re: Case study: fear versus numbers
« Reply #23 on: June 30, 2019, 01:28:44 PM »
OP, life is short. You could get hit by a car, you could get cancer or some other deadly disease. You have saved and you have inherited money. I think someone upstairs is trying to tell you to go on to another phase of your life. You can keep saving and saving and then what? Be the richest person in the grave yard? You cannot take it with you.

If you should get sick and need care, you have enough money to pay for care at home or in a nursing home. If you should run out of money while in the nursing home, then you would be eligible for Medicaid.

You should take a very nice vacation to a place that will bring you relaxation and joy. I used to go to Aruba and decompressed from my stressful job. It took me several days to feel 'normal' again. During those vacations I dreamed how wonderful it would be if I never had to return to work and could live the vacation life forever. Alas, that did not happen and I was back to work again back under the stress that was so good to get away from.

Really, there is life after work. I have been retired for 8 years and have a good stash but not as good as yours! Spouse and me are doing quite fine. No children here to change my diaper either.

My only warning to you is to not spend your money foolishly on flim flam crap. Keep your money safe. You have tons of money and just using the 4% rule your money will last and last!





Dancin'Dog

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Re: Case study: fear versus numbers
« Reply #24 on: June 30, 2019, 01:59:46 PM »
Yeah, I’m confused. You’re a long time lurker, which means you’re familiar with MMM. He quit with $800k and a kid on the way and you’ve got $3.6m and you’re worried about health care? I can’t even wrap my head around your fear. You’re fine. You’ve been fine. Go free. Work out how to have cheap health care and live your best life.




Ditto.  My thoughts exactly. 


50 isn't "young".   Free yourself.  Spread your wings and live!  :)

SimpleLifer

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Re: Case study: fear versus numbers
« Reply #25 on: July 04, 2019, 09:37:42 AM »
Congrats on your financial and career success.  Both require planning, diligence, and discipline. 

Based on the numbers you provided, I ceremoniously grant you the power to stop worrying!  :-)

Seriously...if it were me, I'd end the day-job...take about 6-months to decompress and assess what's important in life, and then start to find other things to do.  I have a feeling you'll find new and meaningful things.

I would reconsider paying financial managers to handle the finances.  You sound like a smart lady...I think you can do this yourself and save a bundle!  I paid for these services for ~15 years, and now I regret spending so much and getting so little!  If I had it to do over again, I would've built a 3-fund portfolio in my 20's, and rebalance regularly to keep the allocations consistent. 

Quote
"Who's gonna change my diaper when I'm 80?" thought keeping me up at night.
I'm sure you already "get" this, but it bears repeating:  having kids does not guarantee a diaper service when we're in our 80's and beyond.

Good luck with everything...I hope you post again with updates on your situation!

DisplacedHoosier

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Re: Case study: fear versus numbers
« Reply #26 on: July 06, 2019, 06:56:29 AM »
I'll add my congratulations to the OP and also my thanks to the subsequent posts in this thread for their insight and encouragement.

OP - You are not alone.

I consider myself an obsessive worrier as well.  Always fearful that "the sky is falling" (the roof will need to be replaced, new a/c units installed, etc.)  I'm 57 and have a nice megacorp $60K pension, retiree healthcare, $2M in 401K and brokerage accounts so logically I know I could withstand the impacts of any "crisis" that comes along.  Highly analytical, so I've looked at the numbers, run the online tools and tweaked every input looking for ways to prove my OMY obsession.

I'm slowly coming to realize that time > money and my identity needs to be more than my Job.  I don't want my grave marker to be "worked at megagcorp for 30+ years".

After a lot of introspection, I concluded that root cause of my thinking is that "I feel guilty I have the opportunity to make this choice".

I'm working through it though and have a timeline of YE2019 for moving on the BEST part of my life.  Traveling, visiting family, and enjoying the time god has left for me...

Dragonswan

  • Bristles
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  • Posts: 378
  • Location: Between realms
Re: Case study: fear versus numbers
« Reply #27 on: July 10, 2019, 01:53:18 PM »
Toddle on over to the FIRE 2019 cohort and put your name on the list.  Go on.... quit dawdling and GO!