Check my assumptions/expectations please!

[PBandJelli]

Hi, I am hoping fellow mustachians can confirm or contest my assumptions.  I want to be somewhat conservative with my expectations so we're not disappointed, we are looking to be FIRE'd around 2022.  Like others in the USA, healthcare is our biggest concern.

Left hand column is the total cash we have now.  Almost all of that is invested in index funds and 401k lifecycle funds.  I am assuming an average 5% return each year.  My husband and I put away 100k a year (about 45 in retirement accounts, the rest in taxable accounts). I know the 100k is more or less what we can do, and have done for a couple of years.  (It's not easy, but getting easier.)  Thanks in advance.

Current $ cash/5% mkt gain on $ /Additional savings/year
$2,124,000.00   $106,200.00   $100,000.00   2018   
$2,330,200.00   $116,510.00   $100,000.00   2019   
$2,546,710.00   $127,335.50   $100,000.00   2020   
$2,774,045.50   $138,702.28   $100,000.00   2021   
$3,012,747.78   $150,637.39   $100,000.00   2022   
$3,263,385.16   $163,169.26   $100,000.00   2023   
$3,526,554.42   $176,327.72   $100,000.00   2024   
$3,802,882.14   $190,144.11   $100,000.00   2025   
$4,093,026.25   $204,651.31   $100,000.00   2026   
$4,397,677.56   $219,883.88   $100,000.00   2027   

[MDM]

The assumptions are not unreasonable.  Of course, they are practically guaranteed to be wrong - it's just that nobody knows what will happen instead. ;)

[sojanyajones]

From your assumptions, which seem sound enough to me (which might not mean much and as MDM said no one ever really knows), it looks like you will have around $3M in 2022 which using the 4% rule would give you $120,000 a year to live on. For Mustachian levels that is well above reasonable to FIRE but it all depends on what your living expenses are. So without knowing what your expenses are it's hard to say whether or not you'd be ready to FIRE. Some may feel comfortable FIRE'ing at your savings level now which using the 4% rule would give you ~$85,000 a year.

[PBandJelli]

Thanks very much.  We're young, and our biggest fear is unknowns with SS and -- more critically-- healthcare.  I'd pay triple the taxes I have now to fix healthcare in our country.  Such bullshit that my fellow countrymen (and maybe one day I) will have to make tradeoffs between medications and food, etc.

[PBandJelli]

Hahaha- I married an American, my mother fled a revolution to come here (USA), my father was former special forces, and I have dedicated my life and hobbies to public service.  I'll stay here and suffer our fucked up healthcare system while I do whatever is in my power to fix it. 

I do love Canada and Canadians though!