Hi guys! Thanks in advance for your time and advice!
Life Situation
Married filing jointly, 2 dependents (3 and 0), live in NJ, my age 32, wife is 42
Gross Salary Wages (yearly/monthly)
$102,965.52/ $8,580.46
Deductions (I mixed in taxes here because there’s a mix of pretax and roth contributions so I thought it would be more understandble this way)
$16,426.55/ $1,368.88 Fed/State/FICA/Medicare (total effective tax rate 15.95%)
$5,574.24/$464.52 Family Health, Dental, Vision Insurance (5.41% gross income)
$5,400.00/$450.00 HSA pretax withholding (5.24% gross income)
$5,241.48/$436.79 Wife Pre-tax 401k contribution (11% her gross income)
$5,900.00/$491.67 Wife Roth contribution (17.48% her net income, 13.11% her gross)
$7,966.53/$663.88 My Roth 401k contribution (18% my net income, 12.19% my gross)
$3,000.00/$250.00 529 College Fund, tax free
Other Income
I included a conservative projection of my bonuses in the calculations above
I did not include my wife’s tips, which I would estimate at $2,000/yr
$1,500.00/$125.00 Employer HSA contribution
$3,273.28/$272.77 My employer 401k contribution match
$1,500.00/$125.00 Wife employer 401k contribution match
Adjusted Gross Income
$55,456.72/$4,454.73 Including conservative bonus and tips estimates
Current Expenses (monthly averages, running 12 months, updated using better estimates from wife)
$36.37 Liquor (including gifts to others)
$819.14 Groceries (includes non food items that can be bought at grocery stores,i.e. toilet paper)
$188.85 Restaurants/Take out
$36.72 Entertainment (movies, Netflix, Spotify, sometimes other entertainment services)
$49.95 Internet
$89.48 Phone
$131.10 Utilities (gas, electric)
$119.00 Gym
$215.29 Amazon (did not separate this into categories, includes cost of prime membership. This is clothing, diapers, cat food, litter, toiletries, wife’s makeup/self-care)
$77.77 Other Stores (Hardware, Walmart, Department stores. This is misleading as I get probably around $50/month of things for my work which I get reimbursed for. When I track expenses I don’t discern between family and work purchases.)
$370.00 Gas (I travel about 3-6hrs a month for my work, and my wife lives far from her work, but its the best part time job she could as for.)
$359.08 Babysitter (This is almost exclusively when we are both working. We have no family near by to help us. We did just get a cheaper babysitter though, so this will go down)
$108.33 Car Insurance
$1365.00 Estimated mortgage (Closing on a house. Includes Principal&interest/Insurance/Taxes)
$318.94 Misc. (This includes car/condo maintenance, appliances, water bill, vacations, anything that doesn’t fit into the categories listed above. Moving forward, I’m going to be at least splitting off car maintenance, house maintenace, water bill, and vacations into their own categories)
12 month average total monthly expenses $4,285.02/$51,420.24
With budgeting that has worked out the past 3 months, this should be more like $4,085.00/$49,020.00
This gives us a conservative balance of $6000yr to put towards cash savings, unexpected health expenses, mortgage principal (want to pay in 20years), kids expenses, or make roth retirement contributions
Assets
Combined Retirement accounts $84,145.01
529 College Fund $6,121.56
Cars are 2007 Honda Accord 208,000mi, and 2010 Honda Fit 195,000mi
House Est. $225,000 ($63,000 equity)
Cash savings: $16,000 (estimated from pending house sale, expecting to use $10,000 in renovations for new house)
Liabilities
Mortgage $162,000, entering 1st year of 30
Specific Question
My goals (I used the Monte Carlo simulator on portfoliovisualizer.com to come up with these goals based on the savings listed above)
$100,000 in college funds
$750,000 in 10 years in retirement accounts
After $750,000 is achieved, go part time to cover expenses without saving additional money until my wife is of retirement age (another 10 years, or 20 years from now)
Final retirement balance $1,500,000-1,750,000 just from market growth (healthy mix of HSA and Roth in there, so a good amount of tax free money)
Mortgage should be paid off in 20years
Estimated retirement expenses $45,000/yr (not adjusted for inflation for living expenses, but did take into account estimated property taxes of $8600 at a growth rate of 2%/yr)
Am I being too hopeful about the cost of children as they age?
Is this too risky to go part time and not save and just count on market growth for retirement?
My problem with my current job is that I’m a restaurant manager, and my wife works on my days off. I work every weekend and holiday. I have a degree in Math and Statistics, but I have no experience in any non food service field, so I feel like a career change at this point is more trouble than its worth. I don’t mind my job too much except for the time away from family, which I assume will get worse as my kids age, and they have things to do on weekends.
On a side note, there’s a pretty good chance (50% or higher) that I can get promoted within a commutable distance which will increase my income conservatively $35,000/yr, and not be too much more work than I’m doing now (I already basically run the store, which is why I’m expecting a promotion. I could get one now, but I don’t want to move).