Am I on track to get out??

[father time]

Life Situation: Married with three kids, 16, 14 and 8.  Me: 45; her: 42.  Midwest relatively LCOL area.

Gross Salary/Wages:  Me: 500K; spouse: 40K

Individual amounts of each Pre-tax deductions

I break down assets between those that will fund retirement and those that won’t.

Retirement funding assets:

401ks/IRAs:  1.7M (300K roth; 1.4M traditional)
Brokerage: 210K (45K stock; 165K CDs ~5%)
Ibonds: 45K
Cash: 30K
RE crowdfunding: 300K
Partnership interest redeemable in cash upon retirement:  215K

Total:  2.5M

Other

529: 240K (we are pretty much done contributing to this – the kiddos can row their own boat if they want to go to some super expensive college)
House:  620K (per Zillow); 100K left on 2.125% 10 yr. mortgage
Cars:  3, all paid off:  50K

No other debt besides mortgage. 

Other Income:  20K combined from dividends, real estate rent and interest on CDs.

Taxes: Being self-employed = higher taxes.  We pay roughly 30% effective tax rate. 

Current expenses:  Not including mortgage payments here, as I aim to have that paid off by the end of the year.  Yes, I know, I could put the money into CDs and double the rate of the mortgage, but it gnaws at me to have any debt and it’s worth a thousand bucks in sacrificed interest to own our home outright. Thus, I don’t include it in expenses projections when trying to figure what I need @ FIRE time.

That said:

Groceries: 1800
Household stuff like soap, TP, etc: 400
Dry cleaning: 50
Work clothes: 100
Non-work clothes/shoes: 350
Sports equip: 150
Kid fees (incl. involuntary “donations”): 500
Kid care: 350
Life insurance: 200
Prop tax/ins: 600
Car/umbrella ins.: 300
Fuel: 200
Car Maint.: 100
Water/Sewer: 75
Power: 225
Nat Gas: 50
Garbage: 65
Cable/Netflix/Prime: 160
Internet: 75
Healthcare: 1200
Travel: 1500
Home maint.: 500
Phones: 300
Maid: 500
Gym: 200
Eat out:  300
Entertainment: 350
Misc.: 500

Monthly:  11,100; yearly 133,200

 
Specific Question(s):  I want to pull the plug 12/31/25.  In 2024 and 2025, I project we will be able to sock away 250K each year.  I’d like to have 1.5M in pre-retirement assets to bridge the gap between retiring at 48 at 59.5.  My wife is not currently full time but will increase to .8 FTE when I pull the plug; we will also stop maxing out her 401(k), translating to her bringing home 60K until we decide it’s safe for her to retire too.  (She likes her job way more than I like mine, so this is by no means a forced WIFI!!).  I project our expenses starting 2026 will be 120K/yr, because I’ll be happy as a lark doing the cleaning, shopping in a more cost-efficient way, home maintenance, etc. 
Ideally, I’d like to fund our 120k annual expenses in the gap period to 59.5 with wifey salary and 80K in dividends/interest but not touching principal.  Seems almost doable with rates where they are.  And if we had to dip into principal for an emergency, we would have that option. 
We plan to both delay SS until 70 and will be at the high end of the pay scale based on lifetime earnings.  Both likely to receive modest inheritances but are not factoring that in. 

Primary question:  can I pull my chute 12/31/25 or am I missing some major issue lurking around the bend?

Secondary question:  we have not entirely avoided lifestyle inflation (e.g., we like to go out to eat and on vacation with the kids because soon enough they will be gone and we try to spend money on things that enhance our family bond) --- but we certainly have in comparison to many of our friends and neighbors.  I have a hard time when someone brags about the 400K addition they are putting on their house or shows off the new 100K ride they bought (on credit, of course).  Not in the sense that I WANT those things to be happy (I don’t) but in the sense that I can’t be happy for them because I think it is stupid they are trading years more of working for some fancy new, depreciating, non-cash flowing asset.  I recognize it’s not healthy to carry around this holier-than-thou attitude – thoughts for improving my outlook?  (Deleting Facebook helped, but I still have work to do 😊)
Thank you very much in advance for your input.

[swashbucklinstache]

You're more than on track here and your retirement date will depend on market returns between then and now. You'll want to get a handle on the right way for you to get your cash flow situated each year but more of an interesting optimization puzzle than any lurking problem.

On the second point there's a few ideas to try. One is as simple as you can be happy for people when they're happy even if they've made a stupid decision. Not everyone is as smart as you and that's okay. Another is to imagine they've got great family wealth you know nothing about, a middle option that they really like their job and have no interest in RE, or on the darker end they know medically they've got a shorter time left in one sense or another. Lastly, murdering the planet aside, such rampant consumerism might be what enables your high salary and high market returns so gratitude may be in order.

Regardless of how it happens I'd recommend getting on top of your dealing with it now or, if it's easier, early in retirement. I say that as someone with family members making choices like your neighbors and spending money they don't have like drunken sailors on their annual port visit. I'm looking at you as someone with several soon to be adult children that might spend more like your neighbors than you someday soon.

[zolotiyeruki]

You don't need $1.5M to cover your gap years before age 59.5.  You only need 5 years' worth of expenses, to use while you build your Roth Conversion Ladder.  That gets you access to your traditional (tax-deferred) IRA funds without penalty before age 59.5.

Given the large amount of assets you have (and will have) saved up, the Roth Conversion Ladder will also help you reduce your exposure to RMDs starting at age 73.

Do you have something to retire to?

Yes, you're on track to retire as you've laid out.  However, you could be retired right now if you were willing to trim the fat on your spending.  And there's a LOT of fat in your spending.  You spend more than twice as much for your family of four as we spend on our family of eight in a similar MCOL area.  If you can cut your Exploding Volcano of Wastefulness by a mere 17% (about $2k/mo), you have enough to retire on today.

You don't need life insurance at this point. You have enough saved up to take care of your family if you die.
$400 on household consumables is nuts.  What kind of double-quilted cotton-infused toilet paper are you using?
$1800/mo on groceries for four people is insane.  Are you shopping at Whole Foods?
$300 on phones is super high. Get the kids on $60/year RedPocket plans and get yourself and DW on RedPocket's $40 unlimited monthly plan. Maybe go even smaller.
$150 on sports equipment every month?  That seems excessively consistent.
The $500/mo for kids' activities will go away once they're out of the house.
Let the maid go, and clean up after yourself.

Voila, you've saved over $2k per month, and you no longer have to throw away two more years of your life.

[father time]

Thanks for your response.  No question there's fat to be trimmed.  As noted above, I will be happy to take over the cleaning at FIRE and save the money presently spent on the maid.  Ditto optimizing shopping -- I have heard tell Aldi has great deals on basics but have never ventured in.  Clothes expense is mainly for growing kids.  Us parents are happy in old rags.  Gym is great, super close to our house, and a peace of mind necessity for both parents so I am ok splurging on that. 

Re #2, I have read a few articles on stoicism and was intrigued, but haven't dove in any deeper.  If you have a book or two to recommend, I'd appreciate it. 

Thanks again.

[father time]

You don't need $1.5M to cover your gap years before age 59.5.  You only need 5 years' worth of expenses, to use while you build your Roth Conversion Ladder.  That gets you access to your traditional (tax-deferred) IRA funds without penalty before age 59.5.

Given the large amount of assets you have (and will have) saved up, the Roth Conversion Ladder will also help you reduce your exposure to RMDs starting at age 73.

Do you have something to retire to?

Yes, you're on track to retire as you've laid out.  However, you could be retired right now if you were willing to trim the fat on your spending.  And there's a LOT of fat in your spending.  You spend more than twice as much for your family of four as we spend on our family of eight in a similar MCOL area.  If you can cut your Exploding Volcano of Wastefulness by a mere 17% (about $2k/mo), you have enough to retire on today.

You don't need life insurance at this point. You have enough saved up to take care of your family if you die.
$400 on household consumables is nuts.  What kind of double-quilted cotton-infused toilet paper are you using?
$1800/mo on groceries for four people is insane.  Are you shopping at Whole Foods?
$300 on phones is super high. Get the kids on $60/year RedPocket plans and get yourself and DW on RedPocket's $40 unlimited monthly plan. Maybe go even smaller.
$150 on sports equipment every month?  That seems excessively consistent.
The $500/mo for kids' activities will go away once they're out of the house.
Let the maid go, and clean up after yourself.

Voila, you've saved over $2k per month, and you no longer have to throw away two more years of your life.

Not disputing anything you say above.  We are not nearly as frugal as we could be.  150 on sports equipment is averaged across all months.  Some months it's higher at the start of a particular season, and other months it's lower, but it usually comes in just shy of 2K annually.  It's five people, not four but yeah we spend alot on groceries with ravenous kids though we could no doubt trim there if we were a little more intentional about it.  Household stuff is a global category that includes crap like kid toys, garden supplies/tools, new towels when the existing ones get lost at the pool, etc.  But yeah it's high.  Thanks for the redpocket recommendation -- need to look into that. 

Re Roth, I do intend to kick that into gear, hopefully in 2026.  Thank you.

[BicycleB]

You could plan more explicitly for future health care costs, but given the fluff in your spending patterns that others have pointed out, you can retire whenever you want if you make your spending more efficient.

The extra two years of income l /savings are nice too, but again are only necessary if your primary commitment is to current spending habits with no flexibility.

So the real question is what do you want to do in retirement? What is the point of working? Of retiring? Of the spending that I call fluff?

You are in highly discretionary zones of earning, spending, working. Are you interested in philanthropy? Do you love, like or dislike your work? What is your spouse’s perspective on all this?

Retiring in 2025 is fine but that’s one of several things you can do any time depending on what tradeoffs you make. The biggest thing is what do you want / what makes you healthy, and how are you aligning your life with that?

[father time]

So the real question is what do you want to do in retirement? What is the point of working? Of retiring? Of the spending that I call fluff?

You are in highly discretionary zones of earning, spending, working. Are you interested in philanthropy? Do you love, like or dislike your work? What is your spouse’s perspective on all this?

All fair and good questions.  I have a boat load of hobbies:  gardening,  fitness, cooking, outdoorsy stuff, movies, writing, watching sports (my kids and on TV), visiting friends.  I get to dabble in these now, but time is scarce.  There are a few areas in which I could see myself volunteering, though I'm generally an introvert.  Until all the kiddos are gone, managing all their activities will eat up a large chunk of time too.

I basically dislike work.  Like everyone, some days are better than others.  My spouse is on board with my plan, mainly because I think she will supremely enjoy the sight of me scrubbing the shitters :).

No denying the fluff.  Perhaps embarrassing, but I (poorly) justify it two ways:  (1) I don't have enough time to optimize it and will "get to it" when I RE, and (2) we spend way less than our peer group as it is and don't want to pinch every penny.  Though my spouse is generally on board and fairly frugal by nature, she got a little annoyed with me when I really tried to tighten the spending screws a few years ago so for now, it is what it is. 

Thank you for taking the time to weigh in. 

[zolotiyeruki]

No denying the fluff.  Perhaps embarrassing, but I (poorly) justify it two ways:  (1) I don't have enough time to optimize it and will "get to it" when I RE, and (2) we spend way less than our peer group as it is and don't want to pinch every penny.  Though my spouse is generally on board and fairly frugal by nature, she got a little annoyed with me when I really tried to tighten the spending screws a few years ago so for now, it is what it is. 

I have a few thoughts:
1) "Not getting to it" is a choice.  We all have the same amount of time given to us each day, and must budget those 24 hours with as much care as we budget our money, if not more.  Tracking how you spend your time is just like tracking how you spend your money.  Once you recognize how you spend your time, you can identify ways to optimize that expenditure.  For example, your spending includes a cable TV package.  How much time do you spend each day/week/month watching TV?  Is that time better spent in front of the TV, or could you divert a couple hours per month to take a serious look at your spending? 
2) justifying your spending by comparing it to that of your peer group is dumb. Seriously dumb.  Your spending choices need to be driven by your priorities.  Not what you think will make you happy.  Not what appears to make your peers happy.  Not what makes you fit in.
3) there's another case study going on, where the OP has a similar mismatch with their spouse's spending desires.  You might find some good counsel there, particularly the advice to sit down and discuss priorities and goals.