Author Topic: Saved mortgage balance  (Read 2380 times)

stashja

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Saved mortgage balance
« on: November 16, 2017, 05:31:26 PM »
I have now in low interest (1% max) my remaining mortgage balance ($38k.) its a 15 year mortgage and I have 11 years left to pay it off. I haven’t been overpaying it for a year. I am terrified of investment of any kind. (My cousin worked for Lehman for 2weeks before they collapsed in 2008. She had no idea.) should I just leave my 38k as a giant emergency fund. (I mean, I might have an emergency...) or pay off the mortgage or do a little of each?

Investment is off the table.

JLee

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Re: Saved mortgage balance
« Reply #1 on: November 16, 2017, 05:34:52 PM »
If investment is truly off the table (statistically a terrible decision), you might as well pay off the mortgage and get something better than 1% out of it.

Llewellyn2006

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Re: Saved mortgage balance
« Reply #2 on: November 16, 2017, 06:30:24 PM »
I'd agree with paying the balance of the mortgage off but after that.....then what? If you are absolutely determined that investing is off limits and you limit your future savings to keeping it in the sort of low interest accounts you're in already then you're going to earn less than the inflation rate and you'll be going backwards. At least put it in into term deposits. If you've got a longer term outlook, then you will be better served by an index fund if you're not a confident investor. But you'll need to stay the course through the good and the bad.

AspiretoFIRE

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Re: Saved mortgage balance
« Reply #3 on: November 17, 2017, 01:44:54 AM »
Statistically speaking you are giving up ~6% by leaving your money in a 1% interest account.  You can take even lower risk and buy bonds or CDs for more than 1%.  I agree that the safest thing is to pay off the mortgage, that should give you the security you need to feel ok about investing at least a portion of your future income?

DS

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Re: Saved mortgage balance
« Reply #4 on: November 17, 2017, 07:51:02 AM »
Pay it off, and read about investing as much as possible. The knowledge will give confidence in at least lower-risk investments such as bonds. If Treasury Bonds default, we have larger issues in the world and your money is probably gone anyway.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/regrettheory.asp

plog

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Re: Saved mortgage balance
« Reply #5 on: November 17, 2017, 08:12:28 AM »
Quote
My cousin worked for Lehman for 2weeks before they collapsed in 2008. She had no idea

I don't see how that anectdote without a point supports your fear of not "investing". Further, mutual funds and stocks are just as just as edible as cash/bank accounts.  None of the above are going to get you through the total melt down of society. If you are going to store your wealth in a vehicle that has no real-world application, might as well be one that appreciates relative to inflation.   

So, either stock up on canned food and bullets or get over your irrational fear. 

« Last Edit: November 17, 2017, 08:14:10 AM by plog »

never give up

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Re: Saved mortgage balance
« Reply #6 on: November 17, 2017, 10:09:17 AM »
Congrats on being effectively mortgage free! If you feel reasonably secure in your job then pay it off now. Rejoice in the warm and fuzzy feeling of owning your own home.

Unless you immediately change your job/income though to one where the salary is equal to your expenses, the issue you'll soon have is excess money along with a decision of what to do with it.

When it comes to storing money somewhere, everything is a risk. If we put it under the mattress or in a low rate savings account the very real risk of inflation eats away at it. So even the so called safest approaches are actually very risky.

Have you read the JL Collins stock series or even just looked at a graph of the DOW Jones from 1900 to present day? There is nothing like looking at a graph of stocks over this time period to provide some context around so called risky investments. There is a big difference in buying the index versus buying an individual company's stock.

Even if you had a portfolio of 50% cash, 20% bonds, 30% stocks it would be better than being all cash. Use cash to provide short term comfort and look at the stock money as your longer term funds. That way the ups and downs are less of a concern.

I am very cautious myself. I also attacked my mortgage like crazy until I paid it off. However I now see no issue investing in index funds providing (1) I have an emergency fund to my own comfort level (2) I accept the index funds are a long term investment and I won't sell them any time soon.

Ben Kurtz

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Re: Saved mortgage balance
« Reply #7 on: November 17, 2017, 11:05:12 AM »
Pay off the mortgage.

But at the same time, sign up for a HELOC which you expect never to use but could use as an emergency fund until your cash emergency fund re-builds, which should happen very quickly once the monthly mortgage payment is gone. The thing is, if you define your ideal emergency fund as a certain multiple of monthly expenses (e.g. 3x or 6x), the size of the fund goes down a whole lot when you don't have to factor in a monthly mortgage payment, giving you a double-effect: cash builds up faster without the mortgage payment going out the door, and the target size for the emergency fund is smaller.

Don't forget to set reminders to pay real estate taxes and insurance yourself -- typically, the mortgage company pays those automatically from your escrow account, but you lose that convenience when your mortgage is gone. Those bills only come once or twice a year in most towns, so you need to forecast and budget up for them.

Most people here will tell you that your "investment is off the table" attitude is wrong and counterproductive. And as a general matter they'd be right, especially if you want to quit your day job before age 65 and live off your savings and investments. And, to a lesser extent, if you want to seriously augment your social security income. But you know, the only thing that's worse for your financial freedom than not investing in a balanced long-term stock and bond portfolio, is investing in that portfolio and then reliably selling low in a panic whenever the market swoons. So read up on investing, do your best to overcome that attitude, but if you honestly cannot, then you have to start thinking laterally.

So what do you mean when you say "investment is off the table?" It seems like you mean "no stocks, bonds, mutual funds and such-like," given that you are demonstrably happy owning real estate (the house you are about to pay off) and keeping your money in the bank (as opposed to gold coins under the mattress). The scary story you tell is about the collapse of Lehman, a securities brokerage, and not about being underwater on a mortgage or seeing your house value tank during the 2009 recession or watching your savings vanish in a bank failure. So what else might you be comfortable owning; something that would appreciate in value and/or throw off some passive income? A long-dated CD that at least has a higher interest rate? The house across the street, which you could rent out?  Farmland in the rural part of your state which your agent could lease to area farmers?  A bar of gold?

By the sound of things, you'll likely accumulate another big pile of idle cash within the next six months or a year, given that your income/expense situation has allowed you to build up your existing mortgage payoff fund so fast. It's important to find a way to store that wealth in a form that will allow it to grow and work for you. Plenty of people have retired early on real estate income, without owning a single stock or bond. In my view, that's not the ideal strategy -- but in your case it may be the best one that you are comfortable implementing. Real estate is one of the better alternative asset classes, so you would do well looking into it.

One or two final words about investment accounts and financial products: If your employer has a 401(k) plan with any sort of company match, I'd strongly suggest contributing enough to claim the full match. Every 401(k) will have some kind of cash-type investment option, if you remain committed to avoiding stocks / bonds / mutual funds, and the combination of employer match and tax deduction is a huge free boost. On top of that, I'd moderately strongly suggest opening a deductible IRA at Vanguard or an online brokerage like E-Trade and contributing the max ($5,500) to that every year. You will find plenty of cash and bank deposit type vehicles to invest in, the tax break will be valuable, and you'll have an excellent platform for stock / bond / mutual fund investing if you ever change your mind and decide on putting money in "Wall Street" investments.

Finally, at some point in your financial career you may come across a life insurance salesman, or an insurance salesman masquerading as a financial advisor who will try to sell you a large and expensive insurance product. For most people, who are comfortable investing in their own stock and bond portfolios, life insurance products containing value-accumulation features (such as whole life policies and variable annuities) are a pretty bad deal and should generally be avoided, because the management overheads and sales commissions take a big bite out of the underlying growth. Because at bottom, those insurance companies simply take your premium money and invest it in bonds and (in the case of variable or index products) stocks, and the money you get back in the end relies on those investments, just minus a whole bunch of needless costs and fees. If your goal is to avoid investing in stocks and bonds, this isn't a particularly good way to do it, and I'd suggest you avoid these products as well.

However, to the extent you have a spouse or children who depend on your income, term life insurance (which contains very little value accumulation and is for the most part a "pure" risk-mitigation product) is appropriate; moreover, when you are closer to retirement age, buying simple, low-expense, single-premium immediate annuities (up to the state guarantee limit for any given insurance company), which pay out a set monthly payment for the rest of your life, can help protect your money against your senility and/or longevity. If you are happy to put your spare cash into buying rental houses from age 40 to age 60 that's all good and well, but let's say you turn 61 and don't want to have to deal with tenants, or even deal with your broker / property manager who deals with the tenants? Sell the houses, buy annuities, live off the monthly checks, and give yourself a raise at age 70 by putting in for social security then. The insurance company will be investing in bonds behind the scenes, but with state guarantees in most places worth $300,000 per customer in each insurance company, you aren't exactly relying on the bond market as such.
« Last Edit: November 17, 2017, 11:08:44 AM by Ben Kurtz »

koshtra

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Re: Saved mortgage balance
« Reply #8 on: November 17, 2017, 11:32:56 AM »
You're absolutely right to be terrified of investment. The only problem is, you ought to be at least that terrified of holding cash :-)

Really, read up on investment -- Collins' discussion of stock lays out the reasons to be in the market long term, and pay no attention to its ups and downs, and it's excellent. The prices will move around. You ignore them. You don't care what your index funds are selling for. All of the businesses comprising the stock market are not going to go out of business. (Or anyway, if they do, we're all going to have far worse things to worry about than the value of our portfolios.)

But don't buy your index funds until you fully understand that their prices are going to move up and down and that you don't care.

The problem with you young folks (here I tug on my long white beard) is you're too young to have experienced the rapid melting-away of cash due to inflation. When you've watched the buying power of money evaporate at 10% for a few years, you find holding cash a lot less reassuring.

Nowadays the Fed works hard to keep inflation around 2%. But if the chuckleheads in Washington suddenly get some bright new ideas, that could change next month. You're really better off owning a chunk of the world economy than holding any one currency, even one as historically stable as the American dollar. And that's what you get when you buy an index fund -- a chunk of the world economy. Over the long term, the value of businesses tends to rise by a several percentage points a year, and the value of cash tends to sink by a couple percentage points a year.


 

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