Thank you for proving my point you would work longer. So why hold any bonds prior to FIRE. I did not say that holding more bonds wouldn't allow you to draw down bonds in lieu of an euqity position I said most here would work longer regardless of their bond position. 2008 was just an example.
And while the future is "unknown" it's not really. The order of events may be unknown but we have a pretty good idea or no one would ever quit working.
It does not prove your point; I specifically responded to:
"there are very few(possily none) reasonable levels of bonds that will work with a 4% SWR for the early retiree that would prevent almost anyone here from working a few extra years if 2008 were to happen and their FIRE date was 2009 ... "
Your argument seems to be that, any amount of bonds (you specified 30% as a high example, so we'll use that) will be insufficient to handle a crash just prior to FIRE. You also explain how your post-FIRE plan is to have something like 10% bonds. So what exactly are you going to do if the market crashed again? Go back to work again? If you design your portfolio with larger amounts of diversification, you lower your risk and it is less likely you'll need to go back to work. There is nothing wrong with going back to work, but my goal is to not have to. It's the "I" in FIRE.
Bond percentage
So 30% gets you 40 years of FIRE in CFIREsim which most use as the metric for it lasting for ever at a 91.67% success rate.
40% gets you an 86% success rate
50% get yous a 77% success rate
having more bonds doesnt help the 4% SWR plan once you pass a certain point its detrimental and if its detrimental in withdrawal its more detrimental in growth.
i cut it at 30% b/c that amount of bonds has similar success as you add less for a 40 year time frame. so to not go back to work you definitely shouldnt deversify into more than 30% bonds.
there is a much simpler way to mitigate going back to the job you have now
use variable withdrawal during the first 5-8 years to adjust your withdrawal down by up to 15% - you can either hustle to earn some extra or cut some of your fluff if that happens.
but its highly unlikely you'll need to ...
as you already indicated you would continue working even with bonds so i see no real reason to hold extra bonds prior to FIRE. i'll take my lumps and work 1-2 extra years b/c in all likelihood that will be the same amount of time a person with bonds has to work til FIRE b/c as we all know around here on the way to FIRE its more about how much youre saving per year not the market returns.
