I agree with
@seattlecyclone. Where is this money coming from? How many years are you saving?
In your case, I see option 2 coming out ahead in 6 years by about $20k, with the following assumptions:
1) Withdrawals coming from taxable investments (assuming 15% LTCG tax on contributions in each case)
2) 10% nominal returns (100% stock allocation, long term average)
The breakeven is longer if returns are lower, but remains positive if nominal returns are above 5%. The longer term you are considering, the more likely that is to be true.
The breakeven period is the same if I assume contributions come from income (assuming 22% bracket) but year 6 is only $13k ahead.