Author Topic: So . . . like . . . how do you figure out when to bail?  (Read 3930 times)

GuitarStv

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So . . . like . . . how do you figure out when to bail?
« on: March 26, 2024, 08:40:01 AM »
We hit our number (1.2 CDN + paid off house worth around 0.8) of being able to retire and scrape by a couple years ago.  Then we kinda reformulated our plans to aim for a higher number (2.0 CDN plus paid off house worth around .8) where we would be sitting pretty and be more able to handle unforeseen negative stuff and be able to relatively comfortable pay for our son's university costs.  We're closing in on that number (probably around 1.8 now?) but not quite there.  Investment-wise, we've been following the Canadian Couch Potato strategy forever now - index funds - 20% CND, 20% US, 20% International, 40% bond funds and honestly I've never spent too much time watching it.  Number goes up over time, so it seems to be working - but I sometimes worry that maybe I should be more aggressive with the stocks.

Since starting working, I've gone from a job that I liked where the company flamed out spectacularly and everyone got laid off (4 years) to getting laid off from a job that I hated doing work that I hated (9 years).  Over the past four or five years I've been working at a place where I don't mind the work, good work/life balance, I like most of the people, and seen to be doing a good job (they keep promoting me and giving me more money).  Being able to work from home four days a week since covid has also been a huge contributor to my willingness to keep working.  My boss has been grooming me to take over a Jr. Management role, so things are changing.  The job is bringing with it a bigger salary (about 130k a year) but I'm worried that it might be less fun/more headache.

I'm trying to figure out if it's reasonable to ride it out for a bit, see if it sucks, and then quit if it does.  But at the same time, I feel like I'll never be making this much money again . . . mostly because I don't know if I'll have the hustle to hunt down and fight for a job again.  We have a pretty good work setup with the WFH, which is nice.  But there's a bunch of stuff (projects and wants) I've been putting on hold simply due to lack of time and at 42 (43 this year!) I'm definitely getting old as fuck and less able to do stuff that I used to.  Some stuff I want to do 'when I get more time' requires me to be in pretty good physical shape, and I've been watching my body slowly give less and less, which is worrying.  I also keep getting concerned though that I'll develop expensive tastes or something and end up regretting quitting early because it will limit the stuff I can do due to limited cash flow.  I'm also super lazy, and don't want to ever have to go back to real work again after quitting.

My wife wants to keep working for another few years at her job, and she's currently making around 110k . . . so we would be able to live off her salary for a few years at least if the markets really go south for the first few years of retirement which gives us some added cushion and reduces risks.  My parents have always been pretty big savers, but talking with them they are very concerned about the idea of me retiring this early.  My mom is worried about me running out of money, and my dad is worried about me becoming listless and going crazy through boredom.  Neither of which seem likely to me . . . but both are kinda worrying.  We haven't really talked with my wife's parents about this idea as they're both sort of stereotypical ultra hard working Asian parents who expect people to work until no longer physically able and then die a few weeks later.  We're still not sure how to handle objections from their side, but that's a problem for future Steven.  :P

Thoughts?  Should I quit now?  Am I being not conservative enough?  Should I ride things out for a bit to throw some extra rainy day funds on the pile?  Should I set a higher target (maybe 3 mil) and grind out another 3-4 years?  I'm having a mini crisis here.

bacchi

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Re: So . . . like . . . how do you figure out when to bail?
« Reply #1 on: March 26, 2024, 08:53:15 AM »
How much do you spend? How much do you expect to spend?

GuitarStv

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Re: So . . . like . . . how do you figure out when to bail?
« Reply #2 on: March 26, 2024, 08:55:07 AM »
How much do you spend? How much do you expect to spend?

We're spending roughly 50k a year currently.  I could easily see that going up to 70-80 when we're old and require expensive medical care.

TreeLeaf

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Re: So . . . like . . . how do you figure out when to bail?
« Reply #3 on: March 26, 2024, 09:05:20 AM »
Why does it matter what your parents think, or your wife's parents?

Are you living your best life for yourself or are you living your life to keep your parents happy?

What will you do when retired and how does this idealized lifestyle compare to your current working life?

Honestly I assumed you were already retired.

As for when to pull the trigger - I have no idea. You and I are in pretty similar boats actually, in this regard.

MaybeBabyMustache

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Re: So . . . like . . . how do you figure out when to bail?
« Reply #4 on: March 26, 2024, 09:08:14 AM »
I just got laid off from my very high paying job, and here's where I'm netting out. (It's been just under 4 weeks for me, so entirely new, and this after a 27 year career, so lots of time to reach burn out level.) I can't decide if I want/need another "big career" job, or if I'm okay doing something just for fun (likely teaching at a community college, which pays roughly the same amount as Starbucks.)

If I want even another 1-2 years of padding, I feel like I should do it now. I'd rather grind out 1-2 years right now, get it out of the way, and have the rest of my life open to whatever employment or non-employment I choose. The easiest time to find a high paying job is when you already have one, for the most part. Now, the math suggests we likely don't need the money anyway, so I may not pursue this path. But, that's my general approach.

I want a lot of flexibility in the future, and did a lot of grinding in my career to make that happen.

Also, four weeks in & I've gotten a ton done, it's gone by very fast, and I can easily see myself filling the time with all sorts of fun. I can imagine never having another career job again. If I did need one, I think I'd find it hard to get back to the race.

bacchi

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Re: So . . . like . . . how do you figure out when to bail?
« Reply #5 on: March 26, 2024, 09:08:40 AM »
Your 1.8M at 3.5% yields 63k, your spouse is still working, and you'll get old age pension. Financially, you're good to go. If you're the sort of person that needs to retire to something, then you need to figure that out. Might as well work for money a little bit longer while you explore the future you.

Unless you're willing to risk a delay of ER, I wouldn't change your current asset allocation.

Laura33

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Re: So . . . like . . . how do you figure out when to bail?
« Reply #6 on: March 26, 2024, 09:32:40 AM »
Fucking-A.  You can quit whenever you want.  And you know it, too.  So what's holding you back?

IMO, the amount necessary to FIRE varies with how happy you are with your current life.  Sounds like when you hit your first target, you were happy enough with your job, so you both decided that it was worthwhile to keep working for a while to add more luxury and cushion to your lifestyle.  Once the value of that extra cushion and luxury are no longer worth the tradeoffs in your daily life, then you don't need to chase it any more and can decide that where you are now is just fine.

Look at it this way:  you already have 50% more than the number you originally decided was enough to FIRE on. Unless you've let your lifestyle go through the roof (which would surprise the hell out of me), you've got a huge giant cushion already and don't need any more.  Ergo, every day you go to work, you should do so because you've decide that going to the job is the highest and best use of your time that day.  If you can't do that, then you need to quit, or you're selling yourself short.

Also, never, ever refer to yourself as "old as fuck." 

Signed, someone who's 15 years further down the road and raging against the dying of the light, dammit.

GuitarStv

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Re: So . . . like . . . how do you figure out when to bail?
« Reply #7 on: March 26, 2024, 09:36:33 AM »
Why does it matter what your parents think, or your wife's parents?

I respect my parents opinion on most things.  We don't always agree, but I've often found their advice very helpful in the past.  My wife's family is very important to her and they're deeply connected in a way that I don't always understand.

Are you living your best life for yourself or are you living your life to keep your parents happy?

Fuck if I know what my best life is, but I'm keeping myself reasonably happy and fulfilled.

What will you do when retired and how does this idealized lifestyle compare to your current working life?

Being physically active is very important to my mental health.  In the past I've spent 10-12 hrs a week cycling long distances on my road bike.  Right now I've cut way back on the bike riding and am doing 10-12 hrs a week of Jiu-Jitsu.  (My son also attends the same BJJ gym, so we're taking him there for about four hours a week too.)  We've also got a pretty high energy coonhound, who needs about three hours a day of walking and outdoors play time.  So the physical stuff ends up eating a lot of my spare time right now.

I also play guitar and bass and write/record music.  I've been teaching myself to sing as well with some limited success.  Previously I did a lot more of this, but most of my free time for this has ended up going to the dog over the past year.  For sure, I'd like to dedicate some daily time to doing this.  I'd also like to pop on public transit, head downtown and try my hand at some busking.

There's also home renovation.  Our house is in good overall shape, but is in need of a facelift for a bunch of rooms.  2.5 bathrooms need to be updated (re-tiled floor, fixtures, showers), the kitchen layout currently sucks and needs to be gutted/fixed, we had a tub overflow from an upstairs bathroom that leaked into the living room ceiling so I need to pull down the wonky drywall that got wet and replace it, we want to build a new tool shed in the back yard, we need to replace our walkway and driveway, I'd like to replace the laminate on the second floor with hardwood, and will need a new roof in the next five to ten years.  I don't mind doing most of this work on my own, but I like to work slowly and a little bit at a time.  It's been piling up because I don't want to do this while working and trying to juggle everything else.

Then there's adventure related stuff.  I'd like to do more camping.  I'd like to plan out and go on some longer bikepacking trips around Canada.

I don't really have any close friends nearby to me any more.  Some have died, some have drifted away over time, and some have moved away to distant cities.  (One of the reasons I've been going back to the BJJ gym is because of the human contact/camaraderie.)  I'd like to try to develop some nearby friendships that I just don't have time for at the moment.

I also love to spend time relaxing - listening to music, cooking food, reading books, going for hikes, heading to the beach and chilling out for a day . . . this is something that I don't feel that I've got enough time to do.

I know it's not much, but I really feel that this sort of stuff will be able to fill my days reasonably well.

MaybeBabyMustache

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Re: So . . . like . . . how do you figure out when to bail?
« Reply #8 on: March 26, 2024, 09:42:40 AM »
Sounds like you have more than enough money, and more than enough rough plans for how you should spend your time. I say go for it.

GuitarStv

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Re: So . . . like . . . how do you figure out when to bail?
« Reply #9 on: March 26, 2024, 09:43:05 AM »
IMO, the amount necessary to FIRE varies with how happy you are with your current life.  Sounds like when you hit your first target, you were happy enough with your job, so you both decided that it was worthwhile to keep working for a while to add more luxury and cushion to your lifestyle.  Once the value of that extra cushion and luxury are no longer worth the tradeoffs in your daily life, then you don't need to chase it any more and can decide that where you are now is just fine.

Yeah, I'm kinda at the tail end point where the job that I'm happy enough with is starting to be a question mark when compared with the 'hobo freedom' of early retirement.

Also, never, ever refer to yourself as "old as fuck."

I have grey hairs now!  Multiple grey hairs!  The transition to cranky old man sitting on the porch complaining about young people while picking on my guitar is now complete.[/quote]

TreeLeaf

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Re: So . . . like . . . how do you figure out when to bail?
« Reply #10 on: March 26, 2024, 09:45:27 AM »
Well...the financials check out.

Sounds like you have a good idea of what you would rather be doing in life.

Assuming your wife is on board with the idea and is fine continuing to work I would retire at will.

Tomorrow is the first day of the rest of your life Steve. Make sure to enjoy it, whatever you decide to do.

Villanelle

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Re: So . . . like . . . how do you figure out when to bail?
« Reply #11 on: March 26, 2024, 09:50:29 AM »
I'd likely turn down the promotion, and give myself <12 months to get my head around the idea of retiring.  (This would likely also mean turning down that promotion.)  I'd decide today that I am 100% quitting in a year or less, and then start preparing for that day.  (Actual date would likely depend on seasonal preferences, any bonus structure, being able to max 401k or whatever you people up north have that might be similar, and factors like that. 

Then you can put the decision to bed.  Errr... to floor, in your case.

swashbucklinstache

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Re: So . . . like . . . how do you figure out when to bail?
« Reply #12 on: March 26, 2024, 10:02:32 AM »
Are you a hyper planner? There might be salvation there. When my time comes I'm going to make 3-4 different spreadsheets with every remaining year of expenses planned out and modeled against a few historic return scenarios. This is obviously nonsense but it helps me, including thinking about how will I feel about my portfolio in a the next 2009 situation. I'll also make a formal case study on a few forums and maybe see a fee-only financial planner. Before I hear the results I'll make a few rules for myself. Like, if I inflate my expenses by 10%, add renovation costs, the market drops 20%, and my model shows > 90% success rate globally for my allocation, I immediately drop to half-time work. I'll add in rules for when to drop to quarter time or return to full time too. Uncertainty in expenses dominates actual success, so maybe make a rule ahead of time that involves spending 75% of your net pay for one year trying out a bunch of stuff plus saving 10k outside of your stache to fund future unknowns. How about a rule that says if your withdrawal rate is below 5.5% at age 44 you take one year off no matter what?

Another version might be realizing that just your stock allocation alone has a 4.6% withdrawal rate. You've got bonds and a house backing that too. You'll never be poor again so think if your best life includes work or not. Is that still true looking back from your deathbed at 50?

This is all frippery designed to overload you with evidence that even if you want to treat a 2% withdrawal rate as 2.4% your outcomes won't really change at these numbers. They certainly won't if you take a year off and decide you want to spend 100k and can only get a job paying 25% less. Running the local habitat for humanity build can cover your expenses even without the stache.

TreeLeaf

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Re: So . . . like . . . how do you figure out when to bail?
« Reply #13 on: March 26, 2024, 10:06:38 AM »
Completely unrelated....

I thought you were the badass guy who sleeps on a floor? What do you need money for? :p

GuitarStv

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Re: So . . . like . . . how do you figure out when to bail?
« Reply #14 on: March 26, 2024, 10:08:14 AM »
I thought you were the badass guy who sleeps on a floor? What do you need money for? :p

Old as fuck dude.  What if I start wanting a mattress??????  Or . . . (gasp) . . . a cell phone?

swashbucklinstache

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Re: So . . . like . . . how do you figure out when to bail?
« Reply #15 on: March 26, 2024, 10:14:59 AM »
Alternatively how about a friendly self face punch?

What percentage of the local median household income do you need as someone with a paid off house, no job sucking up your time, 99th percentile financial management skills, free? healthcare, and very low income tax? Does your stache already provide it? =)
« Last Edit: March 26, 2024, 10:48:28 AM by swashbucklinstache »

Laura33

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Re: So . . . like . . . how do you figure out when to bail?
« Reply #16 on: March 26, 2024, 10:19:05 AM »
I have grey hairs now!  Multiple grey hairs!  The transition to cranky old man sitting on the porch complaining about young people while picking on my guitar is now complete.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aEKmbDbFMI8

You're welcome.  Now get off my lawn.

Fru-Gal

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Re: So . . . like . . . how do you figure out when to bail?
« Reply #17 on: March 26, 2024, 10:28:55 AM »
Based on your list of proposed activities I say do it. You’re gonna have a blast.

Also I have to laugh now that I’m entering the phase of life where people proudly boast of their age. You’re definitely not old, BUT you will be old if you don’t quit now!

I have met a bunch of not so fit people in their early 40s saying they wonder how fit they will be in their “ancient” 50s (me). I never tell them my age but in my head I’m thinking, “Start now, motherfucker!”

« Last Edit: March 26, 2024, 10:35:32 AM by Fru-Gal »

swashbucklinstache

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Re: So . . . like . . . how do you figure out when to bail?
« Reply #18 on: March 26, 2024, 10:57:55 AM »
One more thought. Are the hypotheticals you're worried about best combated by saving up more money? If you develop champagne tastes, as long as they aren't exorbitant you can just get a job again for briefly longer than you'd need to work extra now. The scenarios where this go bad and wouldn't have gone bad if you just had an extra million are unlikely. Unless you buy a boat, don't buy a boat.

If it's both increased expenses and that you're somehow unable to work, would that really change by working more now? Or would you look back thinking you'd rather have enjoyed yourself.

If it's a 2.5% withdrawal rate failing, it's either the world failing or at the least the market fundamentally changing. In almost every one of those unlikely cases, adding an extra million to the stache is a wildly inefficient choice. You'd be better off buying a rental property, getting citizenship in the EU, learning metalworking and carpentry and farming, or, most likely, being willing to get at least a minimum wage job at some point etc. If you're not pursuing those then why pursue a worse option just because objects in motion stay in motion.

shuffler

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Re: So . . . like . . . how do you figure out when to bail?
« Reply #19 on: March 26, 2024, 11:01:52 AM »
If they like you as much as they seem to, then they'll probably be willing to let you go part-time, rather than losing you entirely.

IMO, part-time can be a great way to ease into FIRE.  It's less dramatic than an "Epic FU", but you get more time to do most of the projects and the exercise you want, and it calms the brain by stepping down the paycheck rather than stopping it all at once.  I went to 3 days/week, and it was wonderful to have permanent 4 day weekends, while earning enough to cover expenses and still feeling like I was contributing professionally.  I did that for 2 years before going full-FIRE.

TreeLeaf

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Re: So . . . like . . . how do you figure out when to bail?
« Reply #20 on: March 26, 2024, 11:09:49 AM »
I thought you were the badass guy who sleeps on a floor? What do you need money for? :p

Old as fuck dude.  What if I start wanting a mattress??????  Or . . . (gasp) . . . a cell phone?

When you're old enough to need a mattress and a cell phone you can trade in one of your road bikes for these things. :p 

zolotiyeruki

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Re: So . . . like . . . how do you figure out when to bail?
« Reply #21 on: March 26, 2024, 01:00:46 PM »
I've heard it said that in order to retire, you need to be able to answer "yes" to these three questions:
1) Do you have enough (money)?
2) Have you had enough (of working for a living)?
3) Will you have enough (to do)?

I'll join the chorus saying that you're just fine on #1.  You have so many safety nets (low WR, spouse working, home equity, you can go back to work, etc) you could equip a fleet of fishing boats.  Consider that issue solved.
#3 You've got a good list of projects...for a while.  But without a job, you'll knock out those projects in a few months.  What then?
#2 This is one you'll have to answer yourself.  Are you emotionally ready to leave the workforce, even temporarily?

I've seen an awful lot of people on this forum ask "can I retire?"  Almost always, they have plenty of money, even if many of them aren't convinced.  A few don't have a good answer to question #3.  The biggest hangup is almost always emotional--fear of running out of money, fear of missing out, discomfort with going from accumulation to depletion, guilt about not working, discomfort with such a big lifestyle (and mindset!) transition.

As they say, you've won the game.  You don't just have FU money, you have FI money.  The question at this point should be "how do I want to spend the next 40-ish years of my life?  Do I want to work at a job earning money I don't need?  Do I want to spend time with family?  Spend more time on my hobbies?  Pick up new skills?  Travel?"  Once you hit FI, there's nothing wrong with continuing at a job, if you'd do it for free.  Otherwise, you're wasting valuable years.

Sincerely,
a 43-year-old who wishes he were in your position, and hopefully *will* be in a few more years

achvfi

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Re: So . . . like . . . how do you figure out when to bail?
« Reply #22 on: March 26, 2024, 01:19:19 PM »
My vote is for quit now.

You have conservative Stache that can support sub 3% Withdrawal rate, you have paid off house and a supportive SO that will continue to work for few more years.

You are in such a stable place to take this leap.

mspym

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Re: So . . . like . . . how do you figure out when to bail?
« Reply #23 on: March 26, 2024, 01:39:45 PM »
We made the leap 6 months ago when Ofpym got made redundant and honestly it’s the best thing for him - even though it was way less financially obvious than your situation. He’s SO MUCH HAPPIER booping around, lifting weights, noodling on his bass, making art and going on really long walks with the dog. He’s living your desired FI life and it’s GREAT. His physical condition has radically improved and he looks 5 years younger. (So, nearly your actual age.) The only time he feels old is when he has to spend a day on the computer doing taxes or something.

Come on in, the water’s fine.

Telecaster

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Re: So . . . like . . . how do you figure out when to bail?
« Reply #24 on: March 26, 2024, 02:35:42 PM »
We're spending roughly 50k a year currently.  I could easily see that going up to 70-80 when we're old and require expensive medical care.

I think you answered your own question.   You're done, or very nearly so.    Now, I was also once a member of the OMY club, and I believe your fear of going back to work after retiring is a rational one.   That said,  I was/am fortunate enough to be able to do good compensated part time work on my own schedule if I desire.    However, after "retiring" my desire to do gainful work has plummeted to near zero.   I still sometimes pick up a job here or there, mostly to justify my expensive hobbies (i.e. skiing) but there is no possible way I could go back to full time.   So my recommendation is that when you pull the pin make sure you are financially comfortable so you don't have to go back.  Some people can do it.  I can't.   

Your other fear of age catching up to you is also rational.   As a guess, it appears your savings rate is sufficiently high that even more year should provide a non-trivial improvement to your financial position.   Since you're asking for advice, I definitely would not push your number to $3MM.   You should be plenty comfortable at $1.8-$2MM.   You have a big list of things you want to enjoy, those will simply become harder the longer you wait.   So wait a year or two if you like, but I wouldn't wait more than that. 

eyesonthehorizon

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Re: So . . . like . . . how do you figure out when to bail?
« Reply #25 on: March 26, 2024, 04:46:29 PM »
Congratulations on reaching the best version of this problem! I don’t know quite what I’d advise, because I at no point had FI simultaneously with a merely-okay job that I wasn’t sure I wanted to do - my last enjoyable job was before I hit my number. I don’t actually mind the idea of working again, after almost a year’s remove, but I hate the idea of having to work again. I want it on my terms, if at all, & not yet.

I favor the option of finding out if they’ll let you cut your hours, because then you gain the resource you want without having to make a final call. That might give you the information you need - you may feel like tilting for even more time, or it may turn out that a few more hours a week fulfills your personal goals for a while. If I hadn’t hated every day I probably would have fought for better terms & stuck around myself, to fund a bit more flexibility later.

GilesMM

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Re: So . . . like . . . how do you figure out when to bail?
« Reply #26 on: March 26, 2024, 06:17:31 PM »
You sound comfortable where you are.  Unless you have a raging desire to stop working, I would just continue and see how it goes.  Nothing wrong with that at all and don't fall for all the hype about "retiring early".

Telecaster

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Re: So . . . like . . . how do you figure out when to bail?
« Reply #27 on: March 26, 2024, 07:31:48 PM »
You sound comfortable where you are.  Unless you have a raging desire to stop working, I would just continue and see how it goes.  Nothing wrong with that at all and don't fall for all the hype about "retiring early".

Good point.  A common deathbed regret is people wishing they had spent more time at the office. 

zolotiyeruki

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Re: So . . . like . . . how do you figure out when to bail?
« Reply #28 on: March 26, 2024, 07:50:26 PM »
"retiring too early" is a mistake you can rectify.
"retiring too late" can't be taken back.

Malossi792

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Re: So . . . like . . . how do you figure out when to bail?
« Reply #29 on: March 27, 2024, 02:59:56 AM »
Quick question, does doing all those home reno's yourself sound more fun than working part-time a bit?
I know I would ask for part-time (you could even 'accept' that promotion on the condition they let you do that), outsource the renovations (cash flow them from the reduced income), then spend my suddenly-so-much free time however the hell I wanted. Then stop when I'm fed up.

FLBiker

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Re: So . . . like . . . how do you figure out when to bail?
« Reply #30 on: March 27, 2024, 07:36:54 AM »
I'm appreciating this discussion.  I'm in a similar situation.  $2M CAD in investments, $60K CAD yearly spend, house isn't paid for (owe ~$175K), spend will drop to ~$50K when it is.  We're planning to pay it off in 1.5 years when our mortgage matures, but if interest rates drop we'll just invest that cash.  DW works PT but only earns ~$20K.  And we're currently getting $12K USD per year in pre-inheritance from my dad, with a likely $1-2M inheritance ultimately, but I find this very tricky to include in our planning so I ignore it.

If I were in your shoes -- specifically, if my wife made that much money and wanted to keep working -- I'd probably quit.  My big hesitation is that I'm the primary earner (~$110K CAD) and I'm in a place (both professionally and geographically) where replicating this salary would be very difficult, if not impossible.  I also like my job and benefit mental-health-wise from the structure and structured socialization that it provides.  So I'm currently thinking I'll ride it out for 1.5-2 years (I have the mortgage payoff in my head as a milestone) and see where we stand.

And, personally, I don't really see full retirement as a goal, at least not for a while.  I think I'd want to work like 20 hours a week during the school year at a minimum, just for my mental health.  I tend towards isolation and depression with large swaths of unstructured time.  Volunteering is fine, but I find the spotty commitment level of volunteers challenging.  I'm very much a "if I say I'm going to do it, I do it" person and I find it frustrating to work on projects where that isn't the culture.  I think if I were more interested in self-guided hobbies and better at unstructured socializing, I'd be more interested in retiring as early as possible.

I like the idea of going PT in my current job, but the reality is that it's already VERY PT in terms of the actual effort I put in.  I WFH everyday, and spend lots of time while working doing non-work computer tasks, meditating, hanging out with my family, taking care of chores, etc.  That flexibility makes taking the PT paycut less attractive.

sonofsven

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Re: So . . . like . . . how do you figure out when to bail?
« Reply #31 on: March 27, 2024, 08:10:04 AM »
I would just say, as someone in their late fifties (me), if there are physically adventurous goals on your list, I would get to them sooner rather than later.
I have seen a number of my friends and family succumb to death or physical limitations lately, even some that were in excellent physical shape.
One in particular was an avid ultra-marathoner who passed one month after a brain tumor diagnosis; he went to the doctor for a bad headache.
Our time here is limited.


GuitarStv

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Re: So . . . like . . . how do you figure out when to bail?
« Reply #32 on: March 27, 2024, 08:16:35 AM »
Quick question, does doing all those home reno's yourself sound more fun than working part-time a bit?
I know I would ask for part-time (you could even 'accept' that promotion on the condition they let you do that), outsource the renovations (cash flow them from the reduced income), then spend my suddenly-so-much free time however the hell I wanted. Then stop when I'm fed up.

I like doing renovations on my own provided that I can do little bits at a time and there isn't a rush to get everything finished quickly.


I would just say, as someone in their late fifties (me), if there are physically adventurous goals on your list, I would get to them sooner rather than later.
I have seen a number of my friends and family succumb to death or physical limitations lately, even some that were in excellent physical shape.
One in particular was an avid ultra-marathoner who passed one month after a brain tumor diagnosis; he went to the doctor for a bad headache.
Our time here is limited.

Yep.  I've been thinking about this ever since my best friend died of lung cancer a few years ago.  The diagnosis was pretty much out of the blue - he wasn't a smoker, had no family history of it . . . he went in to the doctor for a persistent cough and they just did the chest scan as a precaution.  That and I definitely noticed that at around 40 things started physically slowing down for me - like I can still do most of the same stuff but I need longer to recover.

Moustachienne

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Re: So . . . like . . . how do you figure out when to bail?
« Reply #33 on: March 27, 2024, 09:57:49 AM »
tl;dr 'Optimum' retirement timing, like market timing, is a recipe for stress. Put it on auto-pilot.

Pick an arbitrary age, say 45, and treat it like a mandatory retirement age.  If your financial situation changes for the worse (unlikely) you could always move it back and if your work situation changes for the worse you could always move it up, given your solid money situation. 

A fixed date, like an execution, will focus your mind wonderfully. :)  You'll be able to develop very specific plans* on a known timeline. This reduces a LOT of stress and takes the whole timing anxiety out of the picture.  There were good reasons why mandatory retirement has been eliminated in most jobs but there was also a very useful psychological benefit in not being 'responsible' for the retirement decision and the worry about making a timing mistake. 

I said 45 because it feels like a significant age, i.e. years ending in 0 or 5.  I think you're 42 and giving yourself a few years to get your psychological ducks in order and feel you're "allowed" to retire could be just the right amount of time.  And at 45 you'll still be young!  Don't wait longer, though. Financially you don't need to and Mother Nature and Father Time are waiting...

*most plans will change but the planning itself is helpful - fun :)


Retire-Canada

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Re: So . . . like . . . how do you figure out when to bail?
« Reply #34 on: March 29, 2024, 07:58:01 AM »
Thoughts?  Should I quit now?  Am I being not conservative enough?  Should I ride things out for a bit to throw some extra rainy day funds on the pile?  Should I set a higher target (maybe 3 mil) and grind out another 3-4 years?  I'm having a mini crisis here.

You have lots of money. People fail at retirement for a lot of non-financial reasons. I would turn my attention to those sorts of issues and ensure you've done the work in those areas to have a long and happy retirement. Whether you have $2M or $3M or $10M is not going to matter to be honest in terms of how much you enjoy not working. I can't tell you what you need to think about or focus on as the likely trouble spots/issues vary so much from person to person. but you probably have a good handle on what is not going be an issue and stuff that concerns you.

FIRE 20/20

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Re: So . . . like . . . how do you figure out when to bail?
« Reply #35 on: March 29, 2024, 02:05:02 PM »
If they like you as much as they seem to, then they'll probably be willing to let you go part-time, rather than losing you entirely.

IMO, part-time can be a great way to ease into FIRE.  It's less dramatic than an "Epic FU", but you get more time to do most of the projects and the exercise you want, and it calms the brain by stepping down the paycheck rather than stopping it all at once.  I went to 3 days/week, and it was wonderful to have permanent 4 day weekends, while earning enough to cover expenses and still feeling like I was contributing professionally.  I did that for 2 years before going full-FIRE.

Huge +1 on this from me.  After getting the basics right (limiting spending, investing) the best thing my partner and I did in our pursuit of FIRE was to drop to part-time the last ~2 years of our careers.  She officially went to 32 hours a week with an agreement of no management or leadership roles while I moved to a lower stress role in the company and used PTO to work when I needed to and leave when I didn't need to work - about 30 hours a week. 

The change in our lives was dramatic, and gave us a lot of the benefits of FIRE.  While the working hours reductions was only 20%, our after-tax pay dropped less than that while our weekend time increased by 50%.  I often left at 2pm during the week, and was able to get some laundry / exercise / whatever in.  It was glorious.  We made the transition when we were at about 90% of our FIRE number, and we were both happy enough that we stayed through OMY. 

It's been my experience both as an employee and a manger that employees are far more worried about asking to go part-time than employers are about granting it.  If you're a mediocre or better employee and your job responsibilities allow part-time to work, then only a terrible manager would say no.  Unfortunately there are plenty of bad managers, and there are plenty of careers that only work full-time.  But I would bet that if you said to your manager that you're dealing with some personal issues (physical and mental health ARE personal issues!) and you need to drop down to part-time I'd bet they would go for it. 

I think the other suggestions to FIRE now are also good because it seems as though you have more than enough, but it's not clear to me that you're really there mentally yet.  Maybe you are.  Either way, if you have Fridays off and can just ride your bike or create music all day you might find that either you want that every day (FIRE) or you might find that you're much more engaged and happy at work (continue part-time). 


Alternatepriorities

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Re: So . . . like . . . how do you figure out when to bail?
« Reply #36 on: March 29, 2024, 04:41:52 PM »
Obviously you should quit as soon as practical and come cycle tour Alaska this summer* :)  J/K, I'd be happy to host you but of course it's more complicated than that. Congratulations are definitely in order though and I do recommend celebrating RE with a cycle tour!

Others have already commented on the math and with the time and thought you've put in here I'm sure you have been through them many times yourself. So I'll I can say to that is to agree with  Zolotiyeruki:
"retiring too early" is a mistake you can rectify.
"retiring too late" can't be taken back.

We have very similar numbers, except that I pulled the career plug 3 years ago aligning with your lower FIRE number/timeline. I did so in large part for reasons you mentioned, in particular keeping my health up and being able to work on my own projects. I'm glad I did for a few reasons:
1) My father somewhat unexpectedly passed away 18 months after I retired. Without a job I spent a lot more time with him in the year before he did than I would have if I'd been working.
2) I've been able to reverse some of the physical health declines I thought were "age" by being more active and eating better. I lost some ground on this with the passing of my father and taking on some well intentioned but very frustrating work for someone in my extended family. I'm now once again in the process of making myself healthier again and it's definitely easier without a job.
3) DW and I adopted a new born baby last year... This was not part of my retirement plans! I'm really glad I had the time that I did to reset before this challenging opportunity arrived.

One thing that has been more of a struggle than I expected is DW continuing to work. It's great from the SORR perspective, but it has really changed reality from what I imagined retiring early would look like. DW has a touch of OMY and a bit of she still enjoys her work so it's been hard for her to just walk away.

Three years into early retirement I find myself thinking a bit about some possible serious personal project scope creep or maybe even doing some paid work again. The scope creep involves wanting to build a house of my own from the ground up. My biggest hesitation is the capital commitment up front, but if I do it well we'd have a home that cost far less to build than it was worth and I could eliminate all the consumer BS that is in commercially built homes while focusing on efficiency. The possible paid work would involve fun travel to remote Alaskan communities while working for a good friend (I met him on a bike tour). I have not yet run out of things to keep me busy though.

*Provided you don't mind riding with someone towing a toddler behind them... 

DeepEllumStache

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Re: So . . . like . . . how do you figure out when to bail?
« Reply #37 on: March 29, 2024, 05:20:10 PM »
I was in a similar spot but pulled the plug last year at 40. Even being well past FI with a spouse in a much more flexible job earning enough to cover our annual expenses, I was apprehensive about quitting since I had an ok job that paid extremely well. It's hard to give yourself permission to quit and turn off that lovely firehose of cash when the status quo is mostly fine. But for me, it has been completely worth it.

For things to do, you sound like there's more than enough to keep yourself busy. Working out can take up as much time as you want it to. Home projects even more so. Our housing DIY project list somehow keeps growing despite us being able to devote a lot more time to it. We discover more things to do plus we have the luxury of dreaming bigger on the projects. We found out that a minor "fix a few boards on the deck" project turned into a "the supports are rotting and it really needs to be redone" and then decided "heck we're doing this anyway so let's make it even bigger". Now we have an amazing front deck that has been wonderful. We have so many project ideas we have to stop ourselves sometimes so we don't get overwhelmed.

One way to pull the plug would be to plan it out. Pick a fun end date, like when your kid is out of school so you can do a project or family trip. It becomes a celebration and an official finish line that you can start to anticipate. Plan out the first few months and have a list of projects to do. Have your spreadsheets ready so you can confidently tell your family that things look great and you're taking a retirement test run. Technically you could always go back to work. My official excuse has been that I'm taking time off to enjoy our kid while she is young.

Dicey

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Re: So . . . like . . . how do you figure out when to bail?
« Reply #38 on: March 29, 2024, 06:18:52 PM »
"retiring too early" is a mistake you can rectify.
"retiring too late" can't be taken back.
I have a slightly different version of this gem committed to memory and was going to post it here. Thanks for beating me to it.

It's time to rip the band-aid off and go enjoy the rest of your life.

spartana

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Re: So . . . like . . . how do you figure out when to bail?
« Reply #39 on: March 29, 2024, 07:00:40 PM »
Congrats @GuitarStv. I'll echo most everyone else and say pull the plug and FIRE. You have enough and, unless you want to try out the new job just to see how it is and quit if not "fun", I doubt you'll have to go back to a job ever for money reasons.

One thing about FIREing and being as active as you want to be, is that it really does stave off the aging process.And And it can physically transform even the "ancient old" 40 plus people who are out of shape into very fit and healthier people  going forward (remember the transformation of @Jon_Snow my much missed Wonder Twin?). So while you may feel you are losing some physical abilities in your 40s, FIREing can bring them back fast and put you in a much better place.

Also don't under estimate the time you'll want to devote to participate at the more extreme end of endurance activities. Or multiple activities.  The time needed can be huge as you already know and don't forget the "recovery" naps and mass feedings ;-). I FlREed just so I could do that stuff and it still is pretty all-consuming. Throw in hanging with your spouse and kid and regular home stuff and you're likely to be very very busy.
« Last Edit: March 29, 2024, 07:43:42 PM by spartana »

Fru-Gal

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Re: So . . . like . . . how do you figure out when to bail?
« Reply #40 on: March 29, 2024, 10:16:48 PM »
Quote
I've been able to reverse some of the physical health declines I thought were "age" by being more active and eating better.

Exactly this! My motto is never attribute to age that which can be attributed to disuse.

My other motto is you’ll never again be as young as you are right now!

2Birds1Stone

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Re: So . . . like . . . how do you figure out when to bail?
« Reply #41 on: March 29, 2024, 10:54:13 PM »
You have the internets permission.

Dicey

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Re: So . . . like . . . how do you figure out when to bail?
« Reply #42 on: March 29, 2024, 11:32:21 PM »
You have the internets permission.
Lol, permission from the internet doesn't mean jack. Permission from this crowd? Now you're talking.

GuitarStv

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Re: So . . . like . . . how do you figure out when to bail?
« Reply #43 on: March 30, 2024, 10:22:31 AM »
Thanks all for the comments.  Given me a lot to think about.

Metalcat

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Re: So . . . like . . . how do you figure out when to bail?
« Reply #44 on: March 30, 2024, 10:37:14 AM »
I left my career kicking and screaming, I wasn't anywhere close to ready to leave.

Even then, retiring was great. Like, no question, even bawling my eyes out that I was forced to lose the career I loved, it was still SUPER obvious that being retired was the shit.

So even if you have AMAZING reasons to stay, you really can't go wrong with leaving if you're financially ready.

I also say this as someone who just went back to work. But the main reason I'm back to work is because I'm so disabled that my options of what to do to keep myself busy and happy are extremely limited and what I enjoy most is shit I can get paid really well for, so why not??

But otherwise, back when my legs worked reasonably well, I had no trouble finding cool, fun shit to do.

Basically, you really cannot go wrong with retiring. It's awesome even when it's not at all what you want to be doing. And if it isn't awesome, then you have all the freedom and capability to change whatever needs to be changed for it to be awesome.

After a few years retired in Ontario, going through the pandemic, me becoming so crippled, it became clear that we needed to make some kind of MAJOR change. So we did. We radically altered our living circumstances kind of out of nowhere.

But that's the whole point, having the freedom and flexibility to live your most optimal life.

So the question isn't "am I ready?" The question is "what fucking AMAZING thing is keeping me in this job aside from money?"

I miss my old career to this day, I'm still not totally over losing it, but none of that takes away from how awesome being retired was. So what are you afraid of??

jrhampt

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Re: So . . . like . . . how do you figure out when to bail?
« Reply #45 on: April 02, 2024, 11:40:34 AM »
Some great advice in this thread; I agree that you could absolutely retire if you wanted to but you may feel better easing out of it with some sort of compromise for a year or two.  After reading through the responses, I myself am inspired to negotiate either 4/10s (full time but w Fridays off) or 32 hrs/wk (part time w benefits) as an interim step sometime this year.  My department did summer Fridays last year (4/9s and half days Friday) and that was great.  I may use that to ask for a natural segue into 4/10s.  I'm not in as much of a hurry to exit now that I have re-secured 100% WFH.

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Re: So . . . like . . . how do you figure out when to bail?
« Reply #46 on: April 02, 2024, 12:13:59 PM »
Do it.  I haven’t really experienced any lifestyle creep. If anything, I am happier than ever with simple things after trying some of the “fancy” stuff.  Any yes, (assuming you are not injured) the body will never be better than it is today.

Remind yourself that you are a badass, and if anything goes wrong with your retirement, you are a capable, adaptable person that will figure out what needs to be done to fix it, then do it.

2sk22

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Re: So . . . like . . . how do you figure out when to bail?
« Reply #47 on: April 03, 2024, 05:44:56 AM »
There is a difference between intellectually knowing that you have enough to retire and your feelings about having enough. I had already reached the first stage when I joined this forum. When I posted our numbers, everyone told me to quit immediately. But it actually took another year and a half of mental preparation to actually take the step of quitting. Its easy for "the internet" to give you permission to retire but harder for you to give yourself permission to retire.

tooqk4u22

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Re: So . . . like . . . how do you figure out when to bail?
« Reply #48 on: April 03, 2024, 05:55:03 AM »
There is a difference between intellectually knowing that you have enough to retire and your feelings about having enough. I had already reached the first stage when I joined this forum. When I posted our numbers, everyone told me to quit immediately. But it actually took another year and a half of mental preparation to actually take the step of quitting. Its easy for "the internet" to give you permission to retire but harder for you to give yourself permission to retire.

+1 truth!

I quit in 2019 after hst I thought was OMY and then went back to work at end of 2022 to add to college and travel funds and a bit of fear due to inflation/declining markets.  If I hadn't we probably would be fine but WR would be higher now.

Here I am having met what I set out to do with going back to work and KNOW we have enough....and yet I am struggling emotionally with dropping out again.

The fear of f'ing up bc of my decisions is strong in me.....I really want to be laid off immediately so it is not my making....then I will be completely fine.

Metalcat

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Re: So . . . like . . . how do you figure out when to bail?
« Reply #49 on: April 03, 2024, 06:20:24 AM »
There is a difference between intellectually knowing that you have enough to retire and your feelings about having enough. I had already reached the first stage when I joined this forum. When I posted our numbers, everyone told me to quit immediately. But it actually took another year and a half of mental preparation to actually take the step of quitting. Its easy for "the internet" to give you permission to retire but harder for you to give yourself permission to retire.

+1 truth!

I quit in 2019 after hst I thought was OMY and then went back to work at end of 2022 to add to college and travel funds and a bit of fear due to inflation/declining markets.  If I hadn't we probably would be fine but WR would be higher now.

Here I am having met what I set out to do with going back to work and KNOW we have enough....and yet I am struggling emotionally with dropping out again.

The fear of f'ing up bc of my decisions is strong in me.....I really want to be laid off immediately so it is not my making....then I will be completely fine.

Whenever someone says that they want their autonomous decision power taken away from them because it would be reassuring, I get concerned.

The process of making emotionally difficult decisions with substantial stakes is incredibly psychologically beneficial.

 

Wow, a phone plan for fifteen bucks!