Small-Car Buying vs. Worst-Case-Scenario Planning

[JustK]

This is a bit of a philosophical question at the moment, although I will likely be in the market for a new-to-me vehicle in the next year or two.  I'm curious to know how others approach buying big things like vehicles, and if they take "worst-case-scenario" planning into consideration at all.

In my case, I live in the Tampa Bay area.  We haven't been hit by a hurricane since (knock on wood) 1920,  but if (when) we do eventually get hit, it will likely be catastrophic. I'm not on the water, or in a flood zone, and I live in a single-story block home, but I could be in a situation someday where I would need to evacuate long(ish)-term.  (Evacuation is a cluster* in Florida, but that's a story for another day.)

So, my question is this.  When I do eventually replace my current car (an '06 Subaru Legacy sedan with 170,000 miles), how much weight should I give the possibility that I might have to load everything into that same car and head north someday?  My current car is great for my everyday needs, but I could not load up my 2 kids, my mother, an 80-pound dog, 2 cats, and enough fuel/water/etc. to make it out of the state if I had to.  That is one reason we stayed put for Hurricane Irma, and we got lucky here.

I know the MMM tenets are to buy to suit your needs 99% of the time and to beg, borrow, or rent for the 1% of the time you need more.  As a single mom of 2, I am perfectly fine with a small sedan for my daily usage.  But as a single mom of 2 who is also responsible for a large dog, 2 cats, and my mother who lives nearby (plus her cats), I worry that a small sedan wouldn't be enough if SHTF.  And I can't just go rent a van/crossover/whatever for an indefinite amount of time as a storm is swirling in the Atlantic.

How do others in possible evacuation areas handle these sorts of decisions?  Am I overthinking it? Do I get something a little more than I need so I have the peace of mind that we can get out if we ever need to?  (Also worth noting, my dog is 10+ years old and although I hope he has a very long life ahead of him, who knows...).

Thanks in advance for any thoughts, comments, or suggestions.  Sadly, evacuation is something that is really becoming an issue for many of us, so I figure I can't be the only one thinking about these sorts of things.

[LifeHappens]

I also live in an evacuation zone and did evacuate for Irma. I think your questions are valid. In general, I would advise people to plan for the minimum volume you would need to pack assuming you're never going to see your house again. For you that would be:
4 humans
1 dog
2 cats
Clothes
Pet food
Water
Human food
Vital documents/computers/hard drives
Bug out bags (there are great discussions on emergency prep on this forum)
Enough fuel to get out of the state

You don't necessarily need to store all these thing *inside* the car (except the humans and animals!), but you need to be able to carry all of them in some combination of inside/roof rack/hitch rack.

The last thing I would add is, don't be stupid and greedy in your prep. We saw people driving out of the state with 4-6 jerry cans of gasoline on hitch racks. That's crazy. With a reasonably fuel efficient car, you can get from Tampa to Georgia on a single tank. Sure, keep your tank topped up from June-October and take an extra 5 gallons (which you filled up at the beginning of hurricane season) just in case, but don't take a vital supply away from people who might need it more than you.

[Linea_Norway]

You could look for a car that can pull a hanger (maybe best with a hanger with a lid on it). Then the car only needs room for the people and the pets, as the rest can be in the hanger.

[Mississippi Mudstache]

Practically any car can accept a towing hitch. I have one on my 2007 Prius, and I have a 4' x 8' trailer that I use when I need extra cargo capacity. The trailer weighs a couple hundred lbs., and I can put about 1000 lbs of cargo on it. It's a lot more efficient than ferrying around the extra cargo capacity 100% of the time. Good luck.

[Mrs. PoP]

We live a couple hours south of you and just went through this process when buying a car that would accommodate more than 2 passengers, one of whom is going to be in a car seat for a while.  We ended up with a wagon, specifically the Prius wagon.  It was a good balance for us on space for us, the kid in a car seat, and up to 2 other adults pretty comfortably, gas mileage, no range anxiety, etc. I don’t want to have to beg/borrow/try and rent a car to get everyone out in an emergency if we need to do that again.  (With Irma we luckily had already prebooked flights, but can’t rely on that coincidence for every hurricane!)

[LifeHappens]

Towing a small trailer is ok, I guess, but you better make sure it's maintained at all times. It's really easy to let a trailer sit out in the sun where the tires will dry rot and the bearing grease will turn to concrete. Towing also dramatically decreases your fuel efficiency. I personally would not rely on that as a solution.

[JustK]

Thank you, all, for some great thoughts and comments.  @LifeHappens that is a really good list of considerations for evacuation.  I have the whole "hunker down" thing pretty well dialed-in after 20+ years in Florida, but I honestly have never thought the "evacuate" list through before (as I say, we have been *very* lucky in Tampa Bay thus far).  I am definitely going to save your list!  It was scary watching Irma's expected path shift further and further west and feeling trapped, wondering if I'd made the wrong decision to stay put.  I don't want to go through that again!

Also, the roof/hitch/trailer storage ideas are great.  It is helpful to remember that I don't need a giant van or school bus to fit everything inside! LOL.  It seems like I could get by with a wagon/hatchback/crossover-type vehicle and maybe a cargo box on the roof/hitch.  I will keep that in mind when vehicle shopping.  I can't really see myself towing (or buying/storing) a trailer, but it is a good suggestion for someone with more stuff (and fewer humans/animals) to tow.

Thanks again.  It was helpful to have my "but maybe a tiny car isn't the right choice" thoughts validated by others who have some similar concerns (and solutions).

[Sailor Sam]

Hey, hurricanes and bug out bags! This is my kind of thread.

JustK, I work in hurricane response and I really applaud the risk management you're putting into picking your future car. If you do ultimately choose a smaller car, I urge you to switch your risk management process into finding a robust contingency plan for your animals. Off the top of my head you could:

1. Pre-decide on a trigger event (predictive cone has a 30% chance of hurricane force winds in Tampa Bay;  storm surge in flood zone xx has a 50% chance of exceeding 3ft) that will automatically mean you evacuate. Making predetermined triggers takes the emotion out go/no-go decisions, and prevents decision spirals. Making somewhat conservative 'trigger' points means you'll be evacuating early, which means you'll have an easier time accessing resources along evacuation routes (water, food, gas, hotels, clothing), which means you won't need to haul as much contingency gear and will be able to take longer breaks from a smaller car stuffed to the gills with humans/dog/cats

2. Use the same trigger events, but use them to evacuate just your pets to predetermined friends or kennels that live inland. Inland can, of course, still be hit with hurricane force winds and deep destruction. But inland is generally safe(r) from storm surge. Your pooch still runs the risk of being squashed, but won't drown trapped in a cage.

Anyone else have animal contingency plans to share?

[LifeHappens]

Making predetermined triggers takes the emotion out go/no-go decisions, and prevents decision spirals. Making somewhat conservative 'trigger' points means you'll be evacuating early, which means you'll have an easier time accessing resources along evacuation routes (water, food, gas, hotels, clothing), which means you won't need to haul as much contingency gear and will be able to take longer breaks from a smaller car stuffed to the gills with humans/dog/cats.

Thanks for recommending this! IMO, the #1 thing my DH and I did right during Irma was leaving a day before the mandatory evacuation order was issued. We have a standing agreement that we evacuate for any hurricane that has us in the projection cone. We also have a standing agreement that either one of us can make the call to evacuate, no questions asked and no arguing.

Anyone else have animal contingency plans to share?

We only have 2 cats, so they can come with us easily enough. Actually, that's one of the reasons we only have 2 cats. My DH would love to have more pets, but we need to be able to bug out within 24 hours and many pet friendly accommodations will only accept 2 animals.

[JustK]

@Sailor Sam, Thank you for a really great way to think about the decision to stay or go.  Having very precise and logical triggers in place is so far outside of my default settings that I would never have thought of it myself. So, really, thank you! And your points about leaving early to make a cramped drive more tolerable (etc.) if it came to that are also spot on.  Really great advice.  And it is becoming increasingly clear that the standard Florida approach/badge of honor of "riding it out" is not going to fly as our storms become more intense, more frequent, and more devastating to more people.

Also, @LifeHappens I like the approach that you and your husband have set for your evacuation decision.  I've been divorced for 4 years now, so I don't have to share that decision with anyone right now, but I will definitely incorporate that type of system when I do.  (My boyfriend lives on the opposite FL coast, so our eventual co-habitation once we get a couple kids launched won't solve anything, but at least we will both know the drill.)

Thanks, again, to everyone. 

[calimom]

I'm also a single parent of two at home (one is already launched) and last year we did evacuate our home during a California wildfire. There was enough time to load the car before the evacuation became mandatory, so we filled the Thule box on top of my 2010 Volvo wagon. Inside the car were my teen son, tween daughter, large dog, cat in carrier and bunny in her cage and me. I was going to bring my elderly neighbor, but her son came to get her.

Leaving our town on a two lane highway with about half the town's population trying to get out was terrifying, with burning embers and emergency vehicles trying to get through. All was fine once we got out of the fire zone. You don't want to overreact, but under reacting can be deadly. Happy to report we returned home days later to an intact house, though it was tempered the fact that so many had lost everything.

My Volvo is not the most Mustachian of vehicle choices, but I like it for its safety and interior roominess while not being overly large to drive. It has the optional third seat and can hold 7 people or with the seats folded down, a fair amount of stuff. It was purchased used with low miles and has been meticulously maintained so has had no mechanical issues.

[Linea_Norway]

I'm also a single parent of two at home (one is already launched) and last year we did evacuate our home during a California wildfire. There was enough time to load the car before the evacuation became mandatory, so we filled the Thule box on top of my 2010 Volvo wagon. Inside the car were my teen son, tween daughter, large dog, cat in carrier and bunny in her cage and me. I was going to bring my elderly neighbor, but her son came to get her.

Leaving our town on a two lane highway with about half the town's population trying to get out was terrifying, with burning embers and emergency vehicles trying to get through. All was fine once we got out of the fire zone. You don't want to overreact, but under reacting can be deadly. Happy to report we returned home days later to an intact house, though it was tempered the fact that so many had lost everything.

My Volvo is not the most Mustachian of vehicle choices, but I like it for its safety and interior roominess while not being overly large to drive. It has the optional third seat and can hold 7 people or with the seats folded down, a fair amount of stuff. It was purchased used with low miles and has been meticulously maintained so has had no mechanical issues.

This is what we always see in American disaster movies: cars being stuck on motorways. Therefore, try to be one of the first to move out, maybe before it becomes mandatory. Better safe than sorry.

An other possible tool to get yourself into safety, could be a bicycle. That doesn't require fuel and can cycle on small paths. But is of course not an option to bring along lot of stuff,  people and pets. And you might not be safe when cycling in chaotic traffic.

[JustK]

@Linea_Norway, there is a reason that is what you see in American disaster movies!  Where I live, there are really only two ways out of the state (I-75 or I-95; obviously there are other roads, but Florida is a very, very big state to drive through).  Getting everybody out of harm's way is a nightmare, and I don't envy the people who are tasked with that job (my boyfriend has a small role in this, on the transportation side, so I know just how stressful and challenging this is.  He works in Miami, so every time a storm forms, he needs to start thinking about how to get everybody off the Florida Keys.) 

Also, @Linea_Norway, I do keep a small folding bicycle in my trunk at all times, just in case!

And while leaving early is great advice, it can be hard to make that call when you don't know where the storm is heading.  Any storm that looks like it might hit Florida could just as easily move up the coast and hit the Northeast, which is where my evacuation destination is located.  (I'm not saying you shouldn't evacuate, I'm just mentioning that it isn't always a straightforward decision.)  Also, there is something to be said for NOT evacuating if you don't have to because that means one less car on the road, and more food/gas/lodging for those who really need it.  I am in the absolute last evacuation zone, so if I am ever ordered to evacuate... things are going to be BAD. (Not saying this won't happen, and hurricanes are funny things because even though we focus on where they "eye" of the storm is heading, there is all kinds of danger swirling around that mass of destruction!  Never underestimate a storm!)  This is one reason why I like @Sailor Sam's approach to making the call. Obviously, there is no way to know what will happen, and you can second-guess your decision until it's too late to get out safely. 

There are lots of reasons why people can't or don't evacuate.  I'm very lucky that I have the financial resources to hit the road if I have to (there was a time when I did not, so I am sympathetic to this), the ability to work remotely if necessary, and a boss who allows us to make that call for ourselves.  There are many, many people who live here who don't have these luxuries, and it breaks my heart.  I do plan to start looking for a larger vehicle, so this thread was very helpful in getting my head wrapped around that "luxury."  And I also plan to beef up my storm preparedness with @LifeHappens' suggestions for evacuating and with some additional measures to secure my home.

[JLee]

Honda Fit/etc with a roofrack and car-top carrier? Something where you can put all the living things inside and then stuff on the roof/in outside storage.

[calimom]

I'm also a single parent of two at home (one is already launched) and last year we did evacuate our home during a California wildfire. There was enough time to load the car before the evacuation became mandatory, so we filled the Thule box on top of my 2010 Volvo wagon. Inside the car were my teen son, tween daughter, large dog, cat in carrier and bunny in her cage and me. I was going to bring my elderly neighbor, but her son came to get her.

Leaving our town on a two lane highway with about half the town's population trying to get out was terrifying, with burning embers and emergency vehicles trying to get through. All was fine once we got out of the fire zone. You don't want to overreact, but under reacting can be deadly. Happy to report we returned home days later to an intact house, though it was tempered the fact that so many had lost everything.

My Volvo is not the most Mustachian of vehicle choices, but I like it for its safety and interior roominess while not being overly large to drive. It has the optional third seat and can hold 7 people or with the seats folded down, a fair amount of stuff. It was purchased used with low miles and has been meticulously maintained so has had no mechanical issues.

This is what we always see in American disaster movies: cars being stuck on motorways. Therefore, try to be one of the first to move out, maybe before it becomes mandatory. Better safe than sorry.

An other possible tool to get yourself into safety, could be a bicycle. That doesn't require fuel and can cycle on small paths. But is of course not an option to bring along lot of stuff,  people and pets. And you might not be safe when cycling in chaotic traffic.

You make some great points @Linea_Norway and the OP addressed her personal circumstances well. In my case, with California wildfires, we just don't know what will happen till it happens, if that makes sense. A fire that is 15 miles away creates a lot of smoke and havoc until all of a sudden it's a fire 5 miles away and headed toward where you live. It's hard to uproot your family and pets, leave your work and head off unless it's a dire threat, which then leaves you in a panic situation on the exit routes. There are several situations of natural disasters in the US. With tornadoes and earthquakes, people shelter in place. With hurricanes (which no one knows exactly when and where they will hit) people watch the reports are aware of when and how they might have to evacuate.

In my own situation last summer I didn't want to leave my home until the point that it seemed close to life and death. I didn't want to take chances with my children's lives. Which meant we were on a road with many people doing the same thing.

[middo]

Our current situation involves fire danger rather than hurricanes, but the ideas are similar.  Some here decide to stay and defend their homes.  We have made the conscious choice that we will go in the case of a fire, and go early.

We have a dog, two cats and not much else.  We will take them, our phones, our wallets and some cash, and the hard drive that has electronic copies of our pictures.  We have a small car, a dog lead, and two cat cages.  That solves the animals. 

Frankly, everything else can burn.  That is what insurance is for.

Make sure you can carry the things that cannot be replaced.  "Stuff" can be replaced.  People, animals and photos cannot.

 

[JLee]

Our current situation involves fire danger rather than hurricanes, but the ideas are similar.  Some here decide to stay and defend their homes.  We have made the conscious choice that we will go in the case of a fire, and go early.

We have a dog, two cats and not much else.  We will take them, our phones, our wallets and some cash, and the hard drive that has electronic copies of our pictures.  We have a small car, a dog lead, and two cat cages.  That solves the animals. 

Frankly, everything else can burn.  That is what insurance is for.

Make sure you can carry the things that cannot be replaced.  "Stuff" can be replaced.  People, animals and photos cannot.

I'd strongly recommend a cloud backup of some sort (I use Backblaze) -- an offsite copy is mandatory for reliable backup / disaster recovery.

[middo]

Our current situation involves fire danger rather than hurricanes, but the ideas are similar.  Some here decide to stay and defend their homes.  We have made the conscious choice that we will go in the case of a fire, and go early.

We have a dog, two cats and not much else.  We will take them, our phones, our wallets and some cash, and the hard drive that has electronic copies of our pictures.  We have a small car, a dog lead, and two cat cages.  That solves the animals. 

Frankly, everything else can burn.  That is what insurance is for.

Make sure you can carry the things that cannot be replaced.  "Stuff" can be replaced.  People, animals and photos cannot.

I'd strongly recommend a cloud backup of some sort (I use Backblaze) -- an offsite copy is mandatory for reliable backup / disaster recovery.

Cheers for that.  I actually have a separate backup elsewhere, so the cloud based one is not necnecessary, but yes, backups are a must.

[Mrs. PoP]

Our current situation involves fire danger rather than hurricanes, but the ideas are similar.  Some here decide to stay and defend their homes.  We have made the conscious choice that we will go in the case of a fire, and go early.

We have a dog, two cats and not much else.  We will take them, our phones, our wallets and some cash, and the hard drive that has electronic copies of our pictures.  We have a small car, a dog lead, and two cat cages.  That solves the animals. 

Frankly, everything else can burn.  That is what insurance is for.

Make sure you can carry the things that cannot be replaced.  "Stuff" can be replaced.  People, animals and photos cannot.

I'd strongly recommend a cloud backup of some sort (I use Backblaze) -- an offsite copy is mandatory for reliable backup / disaster recovery.

Cheers for that.  I actually have a separate backup elsewhere, so the cloud based one is not necnecessary, but yes, backups are a must.

Yes to this!  We got lucky with Irma, but it was a wake up call and we now have scanned all our files with cloud backup, and my MIL scanned thousands of old family photos.  The cool part is that she loaded those onto a shared cloud account and got everyone digital frames that connect to the account and are constantly streaming through old pictures and any new ones that get uploaded as well.  Better organized and more enjoyed in the present than them all being in boxes. 

[ShoulderThingThatGoesUp]

During the Rotaevavuation, lots of cars ran out of gas on clogged roads, going nowhere. A hybrid will help prevent this.