Author Topic: Replacing facepunch vehicle with electric - where to start the search?  (Read 1135 times)

red_pill

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 160
  • Location: Canada
So, we are finally going to pull the trigger on getting rid of our facepunch mobile - a leased entry-level luxury car.  Yeah, yeah, I know.  It's two years old now so I should be able to trade it in or sell it for the lease buy out amount, or pretty close to it anyway.   Can't wait to be rid of the $500/month payment + $200/month insurance + $150 or so of gas per month. Ugh. I bought this car before MMM, and didn't calculate my actual driving cost, which is over $0.60 per km. Instead I just asked "can I afford this?"  Ugh. 

We want to go electric.  Our second vehicle (an older, non-luxury, higher mileage SUV that is totally paid off) is good for any longer road trips.  So the electric vehicle will be our primary commuting vehicle, and we will drive it as much as possible. (I figure for every 100km, we will save about $10, maybe a bit more??) My wife and I commute together since we work at the same spot but our schedules are a little offset, some days she works when I don't and vice versa. So, going down to one vehicle isn't an option for now.

But, as we consider the EV purchase, I find I am falling victim to two different traps that are pushing me into wanting to get a new vehicle (which I swore I would never do again):

1) range anxiety and
2) fears of depreciation on a used vehicle / missing out on really sweet govt incentives.

Example: 
2019 Bolt.  383 km range.   $40,000 ($45,000 base - $10,000 incentive + probably some options, let's be honest)
2016 Leaf.  172 km range.  $25,000
     
Simply put, is the extra range / more options / govt incentives "worth" the extra money? Will the shorter range vehicles become obsolete quickly?  Will battery degradation of the shorter range vehicle mean that before long it doesn't suit my needs?  What is the best way to determine my ACTUAL needs?   As my wife and I were discussing this we quickly fell into the trap of "well, what about the days we have to leave work to go to an appt in the city and that means we are driving more those days?" etc etc.  I'm like, just take the SUV those days. 

I was thinking of starting a mileage log to really track how much we drive in a given day. I know that we do about 15,000 km per year in each vehicle,  but I have no idea how that is distributed throughout the week, or how frequently we have a "peak usage" requirement where we are driving, say 200 km in a day.   To/from work is only 15 km each way, but then you add on kids activities and various errands, and ...well, it's different every day.  Is it worth tracking this beforehand to get a solid number, and add a buffer to account for changing life circumstances?

Can anyone who has done this share what worked for them in coming up with their range needs, and if they would do it any differently?

Thank you!

doggyfizzle

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 344
Buy a 2012-ish plug-in Prius.  You get roughly 100 mpgE, arenít limited by electric range, and can pick them up coming off lease for roughly $12k.

nessness

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 369
One thing to look at is where there are EV chargers available in your city. It might ease your wife's fears if she knew that she could charge the car during her doctor's appointment, for example. Sure, there's no harm in calculating how many kms you drive when you have to take kids to activities and run errands, and look for a car that has a high enough range to cover most days. But since you have a gas vehicle as well, you don't need a car that will cover ALL POSSIBLE scenarios. 172 miles is like half a tank of gas in the average gas car; how often do you go through half a tank of gas in a day? I'm guessing not that often.

One thing to be aware of is that heat uses a lot of electricity, so our EV gets significantly lower range when we're running the heat.

sol

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8367
  • Age: 42
  • Location: Pacific Northwest
One thing to look at is where there are EV chargers available in your city.

We looked into this before buying a Leaf with limited range, but in all honesty?  We don't use them.  We charge at home every night, and we only charge at other places like two or three times per year.  We just don't need it.  We did it a few time the first month, just for the novelty of it, but it hasn't been necessary since then.

Because we have a second (gasoline) car, we just take that when we have to go on super long trips, or on the rare occasion when we've run the Leaf empty in a day.  We don't even charge the Leaf to 100% full and it's an older model, so we only have about 60 miles of range on it between charges.  We just don't use that many miles in a day, or when we do it's because we're making a long distance trip and want the minivan anyway.  60 miles is more than enough for all of our normal commuting around town, grocery shopping, visiting friends and family, etc.  Most days we use less than 20 miles and it's charged back to full before I even go to bed.

Pennycounter

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 213
What about the battery life on the used cars?  Is there a year after which the performance improved?  I need to replace my car as well and I really want to do hybrid or electric but I know that early Prius's batteries were only good for 5 years or so and then needed a costly replacement. 

Or what resource do you folks use that has reliable information and reviews about this stuff?  Everything that I'm seeing is more of the sales-y side and I don't know if its marketing or legitimate intel.

red_pill

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 160
  • Location: Canada
One thing to look at is where there are EV chargers available in your city.

We looked into this before buying a Leaf with limited range, but in all honesty?  We don't use them.  We charge at home every night, and we only charge at other places like two or three times per year.  We just don't need it.  We did it a few time the first month, just for the novelty of it, but it hasn't been necessary since then.


This is exactly what I suspect would be the case for us as well.

moof

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 506
  • Location: Beaver Town Orygun
Our daily driver is a 2011 Nissan Leaf we bought used in 2014.  I will not be buying another Leaf.

At 8 years old the battery is down to 70% of original capacity.  Getting to the airport and back (50 miles round trip) is now very sketchy unless get find an open charger for an hour or so.  Nissan stands alone as having the absolute worst battery degradation of any electric car manufacturer.  Those living in places warmer than Oregon get far worse degradation.

Longer trips are dodgy as well, going across town to the mountain for hiking and back requires stopping at a ski resort to charge (and two more times at a grocery store) with just 1 fast charger, and it took multiple tries to get to accept payment and start charging.  There was no plan B available.

A replacement battery is not $8500 (!), and probably not worth it when the current battery degrades too far.  Add in the special adapter and labor to have it installed and it is the same as getting a couple year old used Leaf with more bells and whistles.

Our second car is a 15 year old Ford Focus that has been getting sketchy for longer trips, so today I bought a used Prius V as our road trip car to replace it.

If you look hard at the fast charging options in most areas about the only company that has it figured out is Tesla.  A good backup plan if you want to go with anyone else is to buy a cheap low range car, then use the pocketed difference to occasionally rent whatever you need for longer trips.  YMMV.

red_pill

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 160
  • Location: Canada
Thanks, @moof.  I did read about the Nissan battery issue.  Also the LEAF has poor crash test results per-2018.  You mention Tesla....man those things are awesome. But so expensive.  Iím thinking maybe a Bolt? Even though I canít see any used ones for sale anywhere. 

twe

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 19
A few options: A used Volt will give you ~40 electric miles for the 2015 and older, ~55 electric miles for the 2016 and newer. As a plug in, there's no range anxiety. Life time I'm at about 80% electric.
Ford Fusion Energi gives about 25 miles electric.

Prices on both of those are  around 15K USD for 20,000 miles depending on your market. Essentially, it's a brand new car for half the original price.

Or you can pick another plug in for similar results, but those are probably the 2 with the most copies on the market-the Volt in particular.

Your cost per mile depends on electricity prices where you are from. For me, it's about $1.25 to go 100 miles. Past 3 years have had tire rotations and no other maintenance.

Abe

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1235
I'd second a Prius plug-in hybrid. They have decent battery range (about 35-40km, which should be enough for you). You also won't have to worry about longer trips.

habaneroNorway

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 103
I have been an electric-only driver for almost 5 years now. I drive a long-range EV (Telsa Model S), but some general tips:

- start with _realistically_ evaluate your driving pattern. Is it mostly local commutes? A small handfull of long road trips per year only? Do you on a regular basis drive somewhere requiring meaningful range (cabin, parents, ski resort, whatever) ? There is generally a substantial difference between actual need for range and imaginary need for range.

- consider the alternative of buying a small, cheap EV for daily needs and then hire/borrow a car for the odd road trips. Or a plug-in hybrid as mentioned by others. If mostly short trips you will do a lot even with the small battery.

- for EV road trips nothing beats Tesla's SC network. You don't need max range, you just need to get from one SC to the next. My next EV will have shorter range than my current - now I know I don't really need it and it's not worth paying for

- after 5 years and ~40k miles driven I have zero noticable battery degradation. It might be some, but I don't notice it. The advantage of having a large battery pack is that you keep the car in the sweet spot (I do 40-70% charged) almost all the time - this dramatically increases battery life compared to charging all up all the time. I only charge 100% just before a road trip.

- if you live a place where it gets cold (towards freezing or lower). Range goes down. A lot. Heating the cabin requires a substantial amount of energy, all which is drawn from the battery as an EV has no leftover heat from the engine to heat the cabin.

- as Sol says, you rarely use public chargers. You charge at home or at work. It is essential to have access to home-charging. I would never own an EV if I didn't have my own parking spot with charging available. An EV (especially Tesla) uses some battery even when the car is not used. I loose about 3 miles of range every day even if I dont use the car - its less for other cars as far as I know.

sol

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8367
  • Age: 42
  • Location: Pacific Northwest
Our daily driver is a 2011 Nissan Leaf we bought used in 2014.  I will not be buying another Leaf.

At 8 years old the battery is down to 70% of original capacity.

Those first few years of the Nissan Leaf definitely had battery issues, notably in hot climates.  It's not necessarily fatal, though.  Mine is a 2012 with almost 60k miles on it and I still have 11 of 12 bars on the battery gauge.  We live in western Washington and park it in a shady garage, so it never really sees temperatures over about 80F unless it's out driving in the sunshine.  You have to look at each car as an individual and evaluate it based on its history.

Nissan is basically unique in the EV world in that they decided not to spend battery capacity on battery thermal regulation.  Other EVs traded away some range in order to make the batteries last longer, but Nissan decided to just use the full battery capacity on driving places and let it degrade.  Then battery range increased dramatically in new cars anyway, so it doesn't necessarily look like a good decision in retrospect.  On the plus side, they are universally cheaper than other EVs on the used market.

If you're worried about the range, the 2013+ model years of the Leaf got a revised batter chemistry that is less prone to heat degradation.  If you're really that worried about range, though, then you probably don't want a Leaf anyway since it only gets about 80miles unless you get one of the 2016+ models with the larger battery.  Even 60 miles is more than enough for our daily driving needs, and we have a backup ICE minivan when it's not.  Other families may have driving needs that differ from ours, especially if you're a clown car family that does tons of driving.

We be free if we try

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 36
  • Location: Bay Area
I bought a 2018 Leaf when it first arrived, about 15 months ago, and have been really pleased with it. Still gets about the rated 150 miles on a full charge, with 9000 miles on it (slightly less on the highway.) I drive about 20 miles per day, but wanted to be able to make semi-regular trips of around 80-90 miles for many years, thus purchased the new longer range (face punchable perhaps, but my last car lasted 17 years. Hoping to do the same here.) Weíre in SF, so ideal EV conditions - itís a different calculation if you live in temperature extremes. If you can find someone already wanting to unload a 2018, itís worth investigating.

Le Poisson

  • Senior Mustachian
  • ********
  • Posts: 11699
Urban Mobility guy here.

Day before yesterday I was in a meeting with "Very Smart People" (TM) who are designing/researching electric vehicles. Similar to Sol's comment they made a comment that had some impact for me, and that may change the way you think about your purchase. That comment was "Stop thinking about how far a tank of gas goes, and think about what a normal day of driving looks like."

Most people commute about 50km. An EV charges at a rate of 43 km/h. In other words, if you leave an EV plugged in for about 2-1/2 hours, you have all the charge you need to get to/from work on average. Also, an EV charges on an S curve, so it slowly takes on charge at its low end, then accelerates to charge quickly, but slows again to top off the battery. Because of this, you should try to keep the battery in an EV between 3/4 - 1/4 full - the portion of the curve where it charges most quickly. Because I know nothing about batteries I found this very interesting.

If you NEED a new car, and you are in the market right now, an EV is a smart way to go. The EU is working toward mothballing gas/diesel. The Hyundai Kona is the first ever vehicle designed to have either a gas or electric powerplant, and now most major manufacturers are looking at a transition to full electric in the next 10 years. The biggest questions are no longer technical, they are marketing and leadership based.

The overarching message of all this is that in about 10 - 15 years, our gas-powered vehicles will be very hard to sell. Why would anyone buy them when an EV can be fuelled at 1/5th the cost of a gasoline vehicle, have similar performance, and function essentially the same at the same pricepoint?

sol

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8367
  • Age: 42
  • Location: Pacific Northwest
The overarching message of all this is that in about 10 - 15 years, our gas-powered vehicles will be very hard to sell. Why would anyone buy them when an EV can be fuelled at 1/5th the cost of a gasoline vehicle, have similar performance, and function essentially the same at the same pricepoint?

I think there will still be a niche for them, though I agree the market will be smaller and that probably means used prices will drop.

For example, about once a year I load up all of my kids into the minivan and drive 400 miles to visit their grandparents.  We make this drive in one day, with minimal stopping, because long road trips with little kids suck.  We do not want to have to stop for hours to recharge, and the minivan is a big heavy vehicle that would require lots of expensive battery to push around.

Ditto for work trucks, I think those will mostly stay gas for a while.  But for passenger cars?  The kind that most people own to commute in and buy groceries with?  Yea, I think that market segment will be 80% or more EV within a few short years.  Gasoline just doesn't make sense for most of them anymore when battery prices are low enough to make a $20k version that competes with the gasoline powered Corolla or Civic, but costs half as much to operate.

habaneroNorway

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 103
Norway is probably the world's most EV friendly country. If you buy an EV here you get massive financial incentives.
- 0 car taxes (cars are heavily taxed here)
- 0% VAT (25% for a regular car, like most other goods and services)
- no road tolls (worth up to ~4k USD / year depending on where you live and driving habits, for me its bit north of 1k / year). Changing from this year but the rate is way lower than for ICEs
- yearly "road tax" is 40 bucks instead of 400
- tank up on cheap electric energy instead of some of the most expesive gas in the world. Electricity is around 0.12 / kWH. Gas about 7 bucks / gallon (yes, you read that right)
- free public parking in most major cities

(for reference a new Honda CR-V costs about 64.000 dollars in Norway. A Tesla Model S starts at 85k and a Model 3 starts at 42k)

Despite all this, "only" about 7% of all light-duty vehicles are electric. Roughly 50% of new cars sold are EVs. So its gonna take a lot more than "a few years" to completely turn the car market in the US upside down.

Fun fact: Norway with 5 million inhabitants is Tesla's 2nd biggest market.
« Last Edit: May 17, 2019, 04:27:43 PM by habaneroNorway »

Le Poisson

  • Senior Mustachian
  • ********
  • Posts: 11699
The overarching message of all this is that in about 10 - 15 years, our gas-powered vehicles will be very hard to sell. Why would anyone buy them when an EV can be fuelled at 1/5th the cost of a gasoline vehicle, have similar performance, and function essentially the same at the same pricepoint?

I think there will still be a niche for them, though I agree the market will be smaller and that probably means used prices will drop.

For example, about once a year I load up all of my kids into the minivan and drive 400 miles to visit their grandparents.  We make this drive in one day, with minimal stopping, because long road trips with little kids suck.  We do not want to have to stop for hours to recharge, and the minivan is a big heavy vehicle that would require lots of expensive battery to push around.

Ditto for work trucks, I think those will mostly stay gas for a while.  But for passenger cars?  The kind that most people own to commute in and buy groceries with?  Yea, I think that market segment will be 80% or more EV within a few short years.  Gasoline just doesn't make sense for most of them anymore when battery prices are low enough to make a $20k version that competes with the gasoline powered Corolla or Civic, but costs half as much to operate.

Based on my conversation with the folks developing these vehicles, all of your perceptions have been accounted for... and solutions are out there.

Have you looked at the range and capacity of the Kia Kona? 450 km (280 miles) per charge. Recharges at 54 km for each hour plugged in (30 miles) on a regular charger (not a fast charger). And that is shelf ready which means it was in product testing 2 yrs ago. What is ready for testing now is benchmarking well above that. VW's all-electric line (here is the full-size SUV - with a 450 km range. The SUV takes an 80% charge in half an hour) which is cued to roll out over the next few years is the next benchmark. Followed by offerings from the North American auto manufacturers. I think your concerns will quickly evaporate.

habaneroNorway

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 103
Driving 400 miles in a Tesla with kids is basically like driving 400 miles with an ICE. I've done it several times. When we stop to eat, use the restrooms and take a break - the stop itself takes longer than the charging.

The main problem with all the competitors coming out is that they don't have a charging network even remotely close to the one Tesla has. It doesn't help to have 400km range when there is nowhere to charge the car at the speeds advertised, the charger is occupied or not working (all very real problems). Tesla figured out this and built the charging network up-front. Without this network the cars are far less useful. Last summer we did a tour in Norway in the summer and I drove around 3000km in total. Charging and range was never a problem, just take a break on a Supercharger or charge on destination. In my 5 years as an EV driver I've not experienced range anxiety once and I've never been close to running out of juice on the battery. On the Tesla charges I have queued once for about five minutes.

Its hard to find a viable business model for EV chargers. The price differential to charging at home means people use them as little as possible. The relatively slow transfer of energy compared to a gas pump means that you have low revenues pr hour. Installing and operating fast DC chargers can be very expensive.

beltim

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2823
The overarching message of all this is that in about 10 - 15 years, our gas-powered vehicles will be very hard to sell. Why would anyone buy them when an EV can be fuelled at 1/5th the cost of a gasoline vehicle, have similar performance, and function essentially the same at the same pricepoint?

I think there will still be a niche for them, though I agree the market will be smaller and that probably means used prices will drop.

For example, about once a year I load up all of my kids into the minivan and drive 400 miles to visit their grandparents.  We make this drive in one day, with minimal stopping, because long road trips with little kids suck.  We do not want to have to stop for hours to recharge, and the minivan is a big heavy vehicle that would require lots of expensive battery to push around.

Ditto for work trucks, I think those will mostly stay gas for a while.  But for passenger cars?  The kind that most people own to commute in and buy groceries with?  Yea, I think that market segment will be 80% or more EV within a few short years.  Gasoline just doesn't make sense for most of them anymore when battery prices are low enough to make a $20k version that competes with the gasoline powered Corolla or Civic, but costs half as much to operate.

Based on my conversation with the folks developing these vehicles, all of your perceptions have been accounted for... and solutions are out there.

Have you looked at the range and capacity of the Kia Kona? 450 km (280 miles) per charge. Recharges at 54 km for each hour plugged in (30 miles) on a regular charger (not a fast charger). And that is shelf ready which means it was in product testing 2 yrs ago. What is ready for testing now is benchmarking well above that. VW's all-electric line (here is the full-size SUV - with a 450 km range. The SUV takes an 80% charge in half an hour) which is cued to roll out over the next few years is the next benchmark. Followed by offerings from the North American auto manufacturers. I think your concerns will quickly evaporate.

What's your source for that charge speed?  It's hard to take this seriously considering:
1) The Kona appears to be made by Hyundai, not Kia
2) On normal chargers, the quoted charge time is 30 hours (https://www.drivingelectric.com/hyundai/kona/81/hyundai-kona-electric-range-battery-charging)

beltim

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2823
The overarching message of all this is that in about 10 - 15 years, our gas-powered vehicles will be very hard to sell. Why would anyone buy them when an EV can be fuelled at 1/5th the cost of a gasoline vehicle, have similar performance, and function essentially the same at the same pricepoint?

I think there will still be a niche for them, though I agree the market will be smaller and that probably means used prices will drop.

For example, about once a year I load up all of my kids into the minivan and drive 400 miles to visit their grandparents.  We make this drive in one day, with minimal stopping, because long road trips with little kids suck.  We do not want to have to stop for hours to recharge, and the minivan is a big heavy vehicle that would require lots of expensive battery to push around.

Ditto for work trucks, I think those will mostly stay gas for a while.  But for passenger cars?  The kind that most people own to commute in and buy groceries with?  Yea, I think that market segment will be 80% or more EV within a few short years.  Gasoline just doesn't make sense for most of them anymore when battery prices are low enough to make a $20k version that competes with the gasoline powered Corolla or Civic, but costs half as much to operate.

There's no way for all of your 80% of consumers to charge a car at home.  Sure, electric vehicles will take increasing market share, but I have a hard time seeing people who live in apartments without garages ever investing in an electric vehicle that they can't charge at home.  About 37% of Americans rent.

And in terms of charging elsewhere, for the time to be competitive with gas refueling, then you're really not saving any money by going to electric.  For example, the Tesla supercharger network charges 28 cents per kWh, which equates to about 9 cents per mile.  A Civic gets 36 mpg, which at current average gas prices corresponds to 8 cents per mile.

better late

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 300
PTF - informative thread!

habaneroNorway

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 103

Based on my conversation with the folks developing these vehicles, all of your perceptions have been accounted for... and solutions are out there.

Have you looked at the range and capacity of the Kia Kona? 450 km (280 miles) per charge. Recharges at 54 km for each hour plugged in (30 miles) on a regular charger (not a fast charger). And that is shelf ready which means it was in product testing 2 yrs ago. What is ready for testing now is benchmarking well above that. VW's all-electric line (here is the full-size SUV - with a 450 km range. The SUV takes an 80% charge in half an hour) which is cued to roll out over the next few years is the next benchmark. Followed by offerings from the North American auto manufacturers. I think your concerns will quickly evaporate.

There is absolutely no way you can charge 54km per hour plugged in to a regular charger. You can prob get it at home if you do a special installation but from a regular wall socket? No way.
For my Telsa which uses a bit more pr km I can in theory get 110km / hour at home if I install a 22kW 400V AC socket, but that would take almost the full main fuse on my house. Getting 25 or 32 km / hour is a bit easier (230V, 25A or 32A) but it will require an electrician to do some work before I can get it. I charge with 7km/hour and don't even charge every day because I don't need to.

Anyway - unless you have very special needs there is zero need for any fancy charging speeds at home. The car is generally parked for hours and there is plenty of time to refuel overnight for the next day. Pretty much everyone who drives an EV will realize this quickly. You don't need much for the daily needs.

Also: Contrary to intuition, the need for powerful charging at home is lower the bigger the battery. Why? Because you pretty much always have enough juice anyway for any unforeseen need. When I think t's about time to charge - battery down to ~40% - that is about the same residual range as a fully charged small EV. The big battery on a Tesla or another long-range EV gives far more flexibility. The one and only scenario I might need anything fast at home is if I come home from a long trip with little battery left and have to leave quickly for another long trip I didn't know of beforehand (in which case I would have supercharged on the way home). In five years this has never happened.

Driving an EV requires a bit more planning than an ICE, but one gets the hang of it quite quickly and its seldom a problem (never a problem in my case). I have a cable I can use on public charging stations in an emergency. I have not yet used it. I only use the Tesla SCs (free for me)

« Last Edit: May 18, 2019, 06:00:49 AM by habaneroNorway »

habaneroNorway

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 103
Sure, electric vehicles will take increasing market share, but I have a hard time seeing people who live in apartments without garages ever investing in an electric vehicle that they can't charge at home.  About 37% of Americans rent.

Agree. I would never own an EV without my own parking spot (my garage in my case) with charging possibility. Its also hard to retrofit in a big apartment building - a large number of EVs charging simultaniously requires a fair amount of power - the lines into the building might not be big enough to handle it, requiring substantial investment to install. There are systems for load balancing etc but still its not easy to fix.

In cold climate, frequent short trips eats into the battery big time due to repeated heating of the cabin - on short hops most of the energy goes to heating, not moving the car. So if you have a car with 200km range, you won't get anything close to 20 trips a 10km in the winter (nor in the summer for that matter). You would need to visit a public charger quite frequently.

Quote
And in terms of charging elsewhere, for the time to be competitive with gas refueling, then you're really not saving any money by going to electric.  For example, the Tesla supercharger network charges 28 cents per kWh, which equates to about 9 cents per mile.  A Civic gets 36 mpg, which at current average gas prices corresponds to 8 cents per mile.
Most of your charging is likely to be done at home at retail prices. There is some loss in the charging process (I've see 10-15% posted) + vampire drain when the car is parked. So the actual energy consumption of an EV is a bit higher than the stated numbers. As with an ICE it also depends on weather, and driving pattern.
« Last Edit: May 18, 2019, 06:22:53 AM by habaneroNorway »

daverobev

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3288
  • Location: UK
The overarching message of all this is that in about 10 - 15 years, our gas-powered vehicles will be very hard to sell. Why would anyone buy them when an EV can be fuelled at 1/5th the cost of a gasoline vehicle, have similar performance, and function essentially the same at the same pricepoint?

I think there will still be a niche for them, though I agree the market will be smaller and that probably means used prices will drop.

For example, about once a year I load up all of my kids into the minivan and drive 400 miles to visit their grandparents.  We make this drive in one day, with minimal stopping, because long road trips with little kids suck.  We do not want to have to stop for hours to recharge, and the minivan is a big heavy vehicle that would require lots of expensive battery to push around.

Ditto for work trucks, I think those will mostly stay gas for a while.  But for passenger cars?  The kind that most people own to commute in and buy groceries with?  Yea, I think that market segment will be 80% or more EV within a few short years.  Gasoline just doesn't make sense for most of them anymore when battery prices are low enough to make a $20k version that competes with the gasoline powered Corolla or Civic, but costs half as much to operate.

Based on my conversation with the folks developing these vehicles, all of your perceptions have been accounted for... and solutions are out there.

Have you looked at the range and capacity of the Kia Kona? 450 km (280 miles) per charge. Recharges at 54 km for each hour plugged in (30 miles) on a regular charger (not a fast charger). And that is shelf ready which means it was in product testing 2 yrs ago. What is ready for testing now is benchmarking well above that. VW's all-electric line (here is the full-size SUV - with a 450 km range. The SUV takes an 80% charge in half an hour) which is cued to roll out over the next few years is the next benchmark. Followed by offerings from the North American auto manufacturers. I think your concerns will quickly evaporate.

What's your source for that charge speed?  It's hard to take this seriously considering:
1) The Kona appears to be made by Hyundai, not Kia
2) On normal chargers, the quoted charge time is 30 hours (https://www.drivingelectric.com/hyundai/kona/81/hyundai-kona-electric-range-battery-charging)

Home chargers (proper dedicated EV chargers, not just a standard 110V or 220V outlet) are ~7kW. The Kona has a range of ~260 miles, and a 64 kWh battery. 7kW is about 30 miles. Assuming the battery is between 20% and 70% charged, ie you will put a full 7kW in over the course of an hour.

Hyundai owns a large chunk of Kia.

Le Poisson's terminology is wrong. Standard charger depends on where in the world you are (in the UK it would be ~10-13 Amps, 220 Volts, so 2.2-2.6kW). A dedicated home charger will be 7kW.

Fast charger is I think the same as the home charger mentioned.

A *rapid* charger is 22-43 (and higher? Not sure) kW.

And so. If you have a home charger installed, 30 miles/hour for the Kona is perfectly reasonable.

beltim

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2823
And in terms of charging elsewhere, for the time to be competitive with gas refueling, then you're really not saving any money by going to electric.  For example, the Tesla supercharger network charges 28 cents per kWh, which equates to about 9 cents per mile.  A Civic gets 36 mpg, which at current average gas prices corresponds to 8 cents per mile.
Most of your charging is likely to be done at home at retail prices. There is some loss in the charging process (I've see 10-15% posted) + vampire drain when the car is parked. So the actual energy consumption of an EV is a bit higher than the stated numbers. As with an ICE it also depends on weather, and driving pattern.

Agreed - I was just comparing to the Supercharger for the long trip cases.

beltim

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2823
The overarching message of all this is that in about 10 - 15 years, our gas-powered vehicles will be very hard to sell. Why would anyone buy them when an EV can be fuelled at 1/5th the cost of a gasoline vehicle, have similar performance, and function essentially the same at the same pricepoint?

I think there will still be a niche for them, though I agree the market will be smaller and that probably means used prices will drop.

For example, about once a year I load up all of my kids into the minivan and drive 400 miles to visit their grandparents.  We make this drive in one day, with minimal stopping, because long road trips with little kids suck.  We do not want to have to stop for hours to recharge, and the minivan is a big heavy vehicle that would require lots of expensive battery to push around.

Ditto for work trucks, I think those will mostly stay gas for a while.  But for passenger cars?  The kind that most people own to commute in and buy groceries with?  Yea, I think that market segment will be 80% or more EV within a few short years.  Gasoline just doesn't make sense for most of them anymore when battery prices are low enough to make a $20k version that competes with the gasoline powered Corolla or Civic, but costs half as much to operate.

Based on my conversation with the folks developing these vehicles, all of your perceptions have been accounted for... and solutions are out there.

Have you looked at the range and capacity of the Kia Kona? 450 km (280 miles) per charge. Recharges at 54 km for each hour plugged in (30 miles) on a regular charger (not a fast charger). And that is shelf ready which means it was in product testing 2 yrs ago. What is ready for testing now is benchmarking well above that. VW's all-electric line (here is the full-size SUV - with a 450 km range. The SUV takes an 80% charge in half an hour) which is cued to roll out over the next few years is the next benchmark. Followed by offerings from the North American auto manufacturers. I think your concerns will quickly evaporate.

What's your source for that charge speed?  It's hard to take this seriously considering:
1) The Kona appears to be made by Hyundai, not Kia
2) On normal chargers, the quoted charge time is 30 hours (https://www.drivingelectric.com/hyundai/kona/81/hyundai-kona-electric-range-battery-charging)

Home chargers (proper dedicated EV chargers, not just a standard 110V or 220V outlet) are ~7kW. The Kona has a range of ~260 miles, and a 64 kWh battery. 7kW is about 30 miles. Assuming the battery is between 20% and 70% charged, ie you will put a full 7kW in over the course of an hour.

Hyundai owns a large chunk of Kia.

Le Poisson's terminology is wrong. Standard charger depends on where in the world you are (in the UK it would be ~10-13 Amps, 220 Volts, so 2.2-2.6kW). A dedicated home charger will be 7kW.

Fast charger is I think the same as the home charger mentioned.

A *rapid* charger is 22-43 (and higher? Not sure) kW.

And so. If you have a home charger installed, 30 miles/hour for the Kona is perfectly reasonable.

That's like talking about a GM Mustang.  It makes little sense.

A home charger charging 30 miles per hour is reasonable, but that requires a dedicated home installation - not what I would call a "regular" charger.  I took the fast charger to mean similar to the Tesla supercharger - where 80% in a half hour or so is reasonable.

Le Poisson

  • Senior Mustachian
  • ********
  • Posts: 11699
@beltim I bow to your superior knowledge and wisdom.

Obviously I know nothing about nothing. I am humbled.

You have torn apart my post based on KIA VS Hyundai... Which are the same company. It's like talking about a Mercury Mustang. Silly me.

Go do some research and then we'll talk.

habaneroNorway

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 103
The most common question I got when I bought the Tesla was "How long does it take to charge from zero to full at home?" While the answer is "about 40 hours" (from a regular household socket), the correct answer is "totally irrelevant".  I have never charged from close to empty to full in one sitting at home. Nor do I think I ever will. I only charge to full a handful of times per year (before road trips), otherwise I peak at 70% (80% in the winter).

The need is to de able  to overnight charge roughly the daily driving distance. That is the actual need at home in 99.8% of the cases. I know a few who installed dedicated EV chargers to get more power at home, but everyone admits it was a waste of money. There is one good reason, however: Fire safety. A regular houshold socket is not meant to have a load of 10-13A for 20 hours, which is partly the reason I generally charge my car at 7A (also because I don't need more). This is 7km / hour, which covers my needs. I could get an industrial socket built for high currents, then i could safely charge at 13 km /h. If I want more than that I need thicker wires to the garage and a larger fuse. The expense isn't worth it as I have zero need for it.

On a road trip it is different. The most important factors then are - in declining order of importance
- there are chargers when chargers are needed (read: along main roads)
- there are sufficient chargers in one location to make queuing highly unlikely. And if queue - short waiting times
- charging speed

Teslas charging network wins hands down on all three factors. They are abundant and reliable and fast. And for me as an early customer free forever as long as I keep my current car. From where I live there are superchargers in every road-trip direction 50-80km away. So if I forget to charge up, don't plan for it or anything else, I don't need a lot of range to get to a supercharger. If I screw up even more public 22kW chargers (110 km/hour) are plentiful, but I have never ever used one.
« Last Edit: May 18, 2019, 11:48:38 AM by habaneroNorway »

use2betrix

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1549
I always see threads like this with little to no background of the person financial situation.. Maybe it was mentioned later in this thread, but I donít see how people can give advice without more information...

Whatís your net worth?
How much debt do you have?
Whatís your annual income and savings rate?
When do you hope to FIRE?

If youíre a married couple practically drowning in debt and barely saving any month, then you need a 10 year old FIT.

If you have $500k saved and save 50% of your annual $150k income, the correct response to this question is entirely different.

Le Poisson

  • Senior Mustachian
  • ********
  • Posts: 11699
And for non-Tesla owners, a number of gas companies are rolling out high-speed, water-cooled EV chargers as part of site plans for station re-construction. Charge time is no longer a question worth asking.

sol

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8367
  • Age: 42
  • Location: Pacific Northwest
The most common question I got when I bought the Tesla was "How long does it take to charge from zero to full at home?" While the answer is "about 40 hours" (from a regular household socket), the correct answer is "totally irrelevant".  I have never charged from close to empty to full in one sitting at home. Nor do I think I ever will. I only charge to full a handful of times per year (before road trips), otherwise I peak at 70% (80% in the winter).

I'm in the exact same boat with my Leaf.  I never charge from empty to full, I plug it in when I get home and charge it to 80%, and it basically always gets there before I need it again.  But people are still stuck in the gasoline empty-to-full refueling once per week mindset, instead of the daily plug-it-in-and-forget-it mindset.

I also don't typically use the commercial chargers, because paying their quick charging rates would mean paying almost as much per mile as I would pay for gasoline, and what's the point in that?  I've literally avoided using abundant public charging stations in my area in order to save thirty five cents in power costs.  That's how little the convenience of it means to me.  Charging at home is so easy, and so cheap, that it hardly ever makes sense to do anything else.

If you have $500k saved and save 50% of your annual $150k income, the correct response to this question is entirely different.

Personally, I would never buy a $42k car in that situation.  I think I would need at least 2mil in the bank before I would even consider a new Tesla.  It's just such a wasteful extravagance for very little real benefit.  You could buy a used Leaf and send a poor kid to college with the money you have leftover.

habaneroNorway

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 103
It's just such a wasteful extravagance for very little real benefit.

This is where I am now. While it is a mighty fine piece of machinery its way too much money for a car we don't even drive that much. Car (and gas) prices over here and the massive incentives offered for EVs makes it less extravagant than other places, but it's still a lot of money for a car by any standard. It has cost me roughly the same per year as say a new Passat would.
« Last Edit: May 18, 2019, 12:44:14 PM by habaneroNorway »

red_pill

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 160
  • Location: Canada

Whatís your net worth?
How much debt do you have?
Whatís your annual income and savings rate?
When do you hope to FIRE?


Wow Iím getting a real education in EVís and Iím very very grateful.

We both really want a EV and this thread has solidified that, but For now we have decided to postpone this plan. Here is the rationale for consideration and feedback. the buy out on the lease is about $32K plus $1K if transaction costs.   The trade in value is about $6K less than that.  So I would ďloseĒ $6K.  Yeah I know, that money is already gone and this is classic loss aversion. But in two years I would not recoup that loss. 

Plus, our FIRE date (sorta FIRE - we can both retire with defined benefit pensions but donít have firm plans of what to do next) is almost the exact same date as the lease is done.  For some reason I feel like that gives us real options - I can hand the keys over and decide what the next chapter In our life  holds.  Maybe we could go down to one vehicle. Maybe we will downsize houses (hopefully).  But if I wait two years our purchase can be based on the reality we face then, and not for the next two years.  What am I missing here?

To answer the questions above, our net worth is around $2M to $3M.   We own our house with no mortgage that is worth $1M.  My pension plan isnít vested yet and I could withdraw it now and get I think around $800K. My wifeís pension is vested so itís worth a bit more, but could only take it out as pension.  We have $70K in savings that we are now focusing on.    So I figure Iím in the $2-3M range. Although I donít really count the house since it could go down.   We have zero debt except for this stupid car lease.  Our annual income is gross $250Kish. We have been at a 30 to 50% savings rate every month  since we paid off our mortgage last year (have saved $70K since Last July).  Plans are to ďretireĒ in two years.  But solidifying that as an actual plan is an ongoing project. Most people in my company work way longer than we are planning to even though I am a terrible Mustachian.

Where are the gaps in my thinking?

beltim

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2823
And for non-Tesla owners, a number of gas companies are rolling out high-speed, water-cooled EV chargers as part of site plans for station re-construction. Charge time is no longer a question worth asking.

Do you have a source for this?  I'm particularly interested in the pricing.

Le Poisson

  • Senior Mustachian
  • ********
  • Posts: 11699
And for non-Tesla owners, a number of gas companies are rolling out high-speed, water-cooled EV chargers as part of site plans for station re-construction. Charge time is no longer a question worth asking.

Do you have a source for this?  I'm particularly interested in the pricing.

Well, VW is really going to be the game-changer for EV's. They are working hard to recover their image as eco-friendly following diesel-gate and are the only manufacturer with a full lineup of EV concept vehicles. Of great importance, the VW lineup is supposed to rival projected pricing for ICE vehicles of similar size at rollout times (although at $100K the VW minivan is hardly competitive with a Grand Caravan).

Info on their network: https://www.theverge.com/2018/4/18/17252088/vw-porsche-electric-car-charging-station-us

This interesting thing is that the VW offerings move away from EVs as a boutique, unique offering and into teh realm of an every-day car for every-day people.

Equally interesting - Shell is already putting in charge stations in their existing gas stations: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/oct/25/shell-starts-rollout-of-ultrafast-electric-car-chargers-in-europe - expect to see this anytime over here.

beltim

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2823
And for non-Tesla owners, a number of gas companies are rolling out high-speed, water-cooled EV chargers as part of site plans for station re-construction. Charge time is no longer a question worth asking.

Do you have a source for this?  I'm particularly interested in the pricing.

Well, VW is really going to be the game-changer for EV's. They are working hard to recover their image as eco-friendly following diesel-gate and are the only manufacturer with a full lineup of EV concept vehicles. Of great importance, the VW lineup is supposed to rival projected pricing for ICE vehicles of similar size at rollout times (although at $100K the VW minivan is hardly competitive with a Grand Caravan).

Info on their network: https://www.theverge.com/2018/4/18/17252088/vw-porsche-electric-car-charging-station-us

This interesting thing is that the VW offerings move away from EVs as a boutique, unique offering and into teh realm of an every-day car for every-day people.

Equally interesting - Shell is already putting in charge stations in their existing gas stations: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/oct/25/shell-starts-rollout-of-ultrafast-electric-car-chargers-in-europe - expect to see this anytime over here.

I wish these articles ever had pricing.  It'd be interesting to see what a non-Tesla fast charging network would cost.  It appears that that Shell network charges about 50 cents per kWh in the UK - which is about 4 times the retail cost of electricity, so an equivalent in the US would be perhaps 40 cents per kWh.
https://support.shell.com/hc/en-gb/articles/115002988472-How-much-does-Shell-Recharge-cost-

habaneroNorway

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 103
We have a fair ammount of public fast-charger stations. They are struggelig to find a viable business plan and a working pricing model. The options are basically:
- price per kWh
- price per minute
- a combination of the above

The first might seem as the obvious choice - after all, its energy you need. But the problem is that charging speed drops as the battery fills up and you want the customer to move on when they have charged enough. Also charging speed varies between cars, so if you only charge for energy you end up with cars occupying the charger for a long time.

The companies that operate charges in Norway say that the power price is close to irrelevant for the calculation. The big cost is installing the actual charger (a fast DC charger costs > 100.000 USD to install) and maintaining it. The grid operator might also charge a fee based on the installations peak capacity as it represents a fairly large drain on the network when fully occupied.

It ain't easy. And also add that as its significantly more expensive than retail rates - customers will try and use it as little as possible and the majority of EV owners hardly ever use it as most of the charging is done at home.

For chargers in urban areas, you can also view it as a "free" parking space - at least you can deduct what you otherwise would pay for parking.

AlotToLearn

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 89
Any thoughts on a pre owned hybrid? I had to get myself out of a similar face punch car mess earlier this year after finding MMM, and ended up buying a 2014 Camry hybrid over a Prius because I got a better deal. 40.5 mpg since April

Le Poisson

  • Senior Mustachian
  • ********
  • Posts: 11699
And for non-Tesla owners, a number of gas companies are rolling out high-speed, water-cooled EV chargers as part of site plans for station re-construction. Charge time is no longer a question worth asking.

Do you have a source for this?  I'm particularly interested in the pricing.

Well, VW is really going to be the game-changer for EV's. They are working hard to recover their image as eco-friendly following diesel-gate and are the only manufacturer with a full lineup of EV concept vehicles. Of great importance, the VW lineup is supposed to rival projected pricing for ICE vehicles of similar size at rollout times (although at $100K the VW minivan is hardly competitive with a Grand Caravan).

Info on their network: https://www.theverge.com/2018/4/18/17252088/vw-porsche-electric-car-charging-station-us

This interesting thing is that the VW offerings move away from EVs as a boutique, unique offering and into teh realm of an every-day car for every-day people.

Equally interesting - Shell is already putting in charge stations in their existing gas stations: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/oct/25/shell-starts-rollout-of-ultrafast-electric-car-chargers-in-europe - expect to see this anytime over here.

I wish these articles ever had pricing.  It'd be interesting to see what a non-Tesla fast charging network would cost.  It appears that that Shell network charges about 50 cents per kWh in the UK - which is about 4 times the retail cost of electricity, so an equivalent in the US would be perhaps 40 cents per kWh.
https://support.shell.com/hc/en-gb/articles/115002988472-How-much-does-Shell-Recharge-cost-

I agree pricing would be nice to know. At this point none of the players in NA are going to tip their hand. Too much at stake to be the first to speak out.

sol

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8367
  • Age: 42
  • Location: Pacific Northwest
so an equivalent in the US would be perhaps 40 cents per kWh.

That sounds about right.  That's cheaper per mile than gasoline, but not a whole lot cheaper.  It's also roughly what I currently see quickchargers charging, depending on the program.