Author Topic: How to you track and factor taxes (realized / unrealized) income??  (Read 2360 times)

lonelythinker

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What happens when you generate more realized income than your SWR bounded living expenses?

This could happen because you generated capital gains due to a rebalancing transaction (rebalancing your stock/bond allocation)
This could happen because you generated interest income due to bonds...

Let's say I have 1M$ with 3.5%SWR. I could withdraw 35 000$.

Let's say my account generates 50 000$ in interest. I have to pay taxes on that 50 000$.

Depending on the situation, I could also have to pay taxes on that 35 000$ as well

This means that I could bust my 3.5%SWR!
I guess in those years I have to reduce the living expenses to be under the 3.5% SWR?
However on big non tax defered accounts rebalancing, dividends and interest can become a lot as the portfolio grow due to market increase, but the SWR is bounded by CPI increases....

I guess there is no easy way around this. You have to plan tax impact and avoid at all cost (pun intended) big yearly realized income in taxable accounts. Left unchecked this could put the portfolio at risk.



Assuming the following extreme scenarios

Taxable Account A has 1M$ assets with 0$ unrealized gains... If I apply the 3.5% here I can really withdraw AND spend 35 000$ after taxes. fun times! :)
vs
Taxable Account B has 1M$ assets with 500 000$ unrealized gains... If I apply the 3.5% hereI must compute 35 000$ - taxes which will vary on what I sell/withdraw from..
vs
Taxable Account C has 1M$ assets with 999 999$ realized gains... problem captain! I will owe more taxes year 1 than my safe withdrawal rate... the 3.5% is an illusion.

When you log in your accounts they all show the same number, 1M$. However, they are vastly different beasts after taxes! Applying the 3.5%SWR I would not have the same level of living for those same three accounts. No one seems to talk on how to level the numbers so that after taxes, they are similar.

If one would ignore the realized gains and naively apply a SWR you could be hitting a wall...


Now let's say I have account A and B in my portfolio. Do you all pre-calculate the tax impact on each account at the start of the year and then put the tax money aside from your SWR? Trouble is,
 and assuming the tax burden is limited to about the SWR, this tax amount will vary year over year depending on your fiscal withdrawal strategy... so your actual level of spending will vary a lot.
If I choose to withdraw of my living expenses from account A, I would enjoy 35k tax free living lifestyle... but then later in like when I start to withdraw the same 3.5% from account B I would have a diminished living lifestyle.

How do you flatten the curve without doctorate levels of maths???

daverobev

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Re: How to you track and factor taxes (realized / unrealized) income??
« Reply #1 on: August 24, 2024, 11:06:28 AM »
Well first thing, the SWR includes all taxes. So your bounds should be 35k including those taxes.

Most people have a large percentage of their stuff in one tax shelter or another, so rebalancing shouldn't cause massive amounts of realised gains. Not everyone of course. And of course you can end up with too much of one thing in a tax shelter and too much of something else outside, so you do have to sell something and realise some gains.

But if you had 50k in gains.... your SWR including tax (on the dividends and whatnot) is 35k, so you take the 35k and pay the tax due on that 35k from the 35k. The 15k of 'unwanted' gains you pay the tax on those from... that 15k of gain.

MDM

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Re: How to you track and factor taxes (realized / unrealized) income??
« Reply #2 on: August 24, 2024, 12:10:14 PM »
Well first thing, the SWR includes all taxes. So your bounds should be 35k including those taxes.
That's it right there.

GilesMM

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Re: How to you track and factor taxes (realized / unrealized) income??
« Reply #3 on: August 24, 2024, 02:12:50 PM »
Your account might generate $100,000 in interest. That doesn't mean you have to withdraw it and spend it.  Thus, income and withdrawal rate are unrelated.

lonelythinker

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Re: How to you track and factor taxes (realized / unrealized) income??
« Reply #4 on: August 25, 2024, 07:40:24 AM »
Yes, the account will sprinkle 3.5% and not one cent more. I understand this point as the max limit.

Trouble is there is a lot of difference in retirement calculations between 1M in registered vs non registered

Let's say I use a 20% income tax rate for simplicity`s sake and 1M in tax and non-tax sheltered

35 000$ + 35 000$ - taxes on 35 000$ (20%) = 63 000$ net of taxes


If I have 1 000 000$ tax sheltered I could use that number
If I have 1 000 000$ not tax sheltered, I could gross up the number by adding the taxes which have already been paid in order to have a "before tax" figure = 1 250 000$

2 250 000$ at 3.5% =  78 750$ less taxes on the whole amount
apply taxes on the whole now (as all amounts have temporarily been converted pre-tax)
78 750$ - 20% = 63 000$

=same amount 


This way I can merge the accounts of the portfolio by grossing-up the amounts that have already paid taxes.
I could apply the same mechanism to a corporate account which has difference tax brackets.

What do you think?

reeshau

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Re: How to you track and factor taxes (realized / unrealized) income??
« Reply #5 on: August 25, 2024, 08:16:05 AM »
If I choose to withdraw of my living expenses from account A, I would enjoy 35k tax free living lifestyle... but then later in like when I start to withdraw the same 3.5% from account B I would have a diminished living lifestyle.

How do you flatten the curve without doctorate levels of maths???

If your goal is to simplify the math, then simply withdraw 50% from each, considering the taxes, and call it good.

But really, taxes aren't that static, nor is your spending.  I would plan your budget as if you are always going to withdraw from the account with high realized gains--the worst-case scenario.  Then, if you have large unexpected expenditures: house repair, car purchase, relative support, etc.  plan on taking that from the more-tax-favorable account, so you don't disrupt your plan.  As the "primary account" gets drawn down, you may face changes in your plan, but they will all be favorable, rather than bad news or emergencies.

In the US, there are 3 buckets: a taxable account, which is kind of a misnomer, because the rate on the first $47k (or $89k if married) is 0%, if you don't have other income.  Then there is the tax-deferred 401k or IRA, which is taxed as regular income as it comes out.  Finally, the post-tax Roth account, which is not taxed.  There are a wide variety of ways to combine these 3 buckets into a blend.  This is not just to provide you with your spending money, but also (in the case of twx-deferred) to avoid mandatory withdrawals that could cause taxes to spike.

The fact that it is complicated is just another hurdle to FIRE.  If it isn't something you want to do, then hire a tax professional to help you through it, and add that to your planned expenses.

lonelythinker

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Re: How to you track and factor taxes (realized / unrealized) income??
« Reply #6 on: August 26, 2024, 10:55:34 AM »
Thanks for your insights

I am a geek, so for sure I'd like to nerd it out as much as possible.

I have a corporate account, taxable account and tax defered accounts. About 33% of total value in each. Plus I am getting a substantial amount (let's say 100k) in the corporate account every year from a past deal for the next couple of year. So on the 100k I get to pay taxes.

So I have my Year 1 assets on which I apply 3.5% SWR, then year 2 I ajust with inflation + the new 100k gets 3.5%SWR. Year 3 I adjust both with inflation + another 100k at 3.5%SWR etc...

Since I pay tax instalments on the corporate deposits, I kind have to factor that some of that amount has already paid taxes on it... hughhhh

Honestly I will try, but I'm not sure my account will understand/bother to help me with this. Might find a new accountant lol

daverobev

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Re: How to you track and factor taxes (realized / unrealized) income??
« Reply #7 on: August 26, 2024, 12:12:11 PM »
Thanks for your insights

I am a geek, so for sure I'd like to nerd it out as much as possible.

I have a corporate account, taxable account and tax defered accounts. About 33% of total value in each. Plus I am getting a substantial amount (let's say 100k) in the corporate account every year from a past deal for the next couple of year. So on the 100k I get to pay taxes.

So I have my Year 1 assets on which I apply 3.5% SWR, then year 2 I ajust with inflation + the new 100k gets 3.5%SWR. Year 3 I adjust both with inflation + another 100k at 3.5%SWR etc...

Since I pay tax instalments on the corporate deposits, I kind have to factor that some of that amount has already paid taxes on it... hughhhh

Honestly I will try, but I'm not sure my account will understand/bother to help me with this. Might find a new accountant lol

See the note in my signature. The 4% SWR is just a place to start from. There are pensions, inheritances, changing life circumstances, all that to factor. 'Nobody' uses a flat x%, spends all of it.

You need to do some spend forecasting, I think. Work out if you have enough. If you have enough, great - keep in budget and keep an eye on things. If not, can you trim some stuff to make it work.

And also just work out how much tax you're going to have to pay. Put the new pot separately and don't worry about it, but you can take the after tax amount and figure FIRE year - year received - um, what I'm trying to say is, each new chunk has to support you for one year fewer (so standard SWR is 30 years, if you receive this $100k 3 years after FIRE you can spend more than 4% of it a year). Actually there are 'lump sum' additions in the good FIRE calculators I think, put the after tax amount in each year it occurs.

Honestly I think VPW is cleaner and easier, with 0% risk of failure (well... sort of... inflation *could* mean your $20k isn't enough but...).

mistymoney

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Re: How to you track and factor taxes (realized / unrealized) income??
« Reply #8 on: August 26, 2024, 06:03:50 PM »
https://www.talent.com/tax-calculator?salary=35000&from=year&region=Iowa

can play around with this calculator, and subtract the fica taxes

MDM

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Re: How to you track and factor taxes (realized / unrealized) income??
« Reply #9 on: August 26, 2024, 08:03:13 PM »
https://www.talent.com/tax-calculator?salary=35000&from=year&region=Iowa

can play around with this calculator, and subtract the fica taxes
Appears that is using 2022 federal tax rates.

The case study spreadsheet (CSS) will calculate taxes using 2024 rates.

For Iowa, 2024 State Income Tax Rates and Brackets | Tax Foundation indicates the standard deduction is "n.a." but glancing through 2023: 1040 Expanded Instructions | Department of Revenue it appears the Iowa standard deduction is the same as the federal one.

Assuming the Iowa Dept. of Revenue page is correct regarding the deduction, and the Tax Foundation has the correct brackets and rates, a single filer with only $35K W-2 income for 2024 will have federal and Iowa taxable income of $35,000 - $14,600 = $20,400.  The tax would be ($20,400 - $6,210) * 4.82% + $273.24 = $957.  Subtracting the $40 exemption credit and ignoring any local taxes gives a bottom line of $917.

Any Iowans who could confirm or correct?  It would be an easy fix to add the correct standard deduction into the CSS.
« Last Edit: August 26, 2024, 09:27:12 PM by MDM »

clarkfan1979

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Re: How to you track and factor taxes (realized / unrealized) income??
« Reply #10 on: August 28, 2024, 06:29:59 AM »
I'm not a tax professional. If anything is incorrect, let me know. Below is a modified version of my tax plan for FIRE. Below is an example of how to withdraw $133,700 and pay 0% tax.

For 2024, the standard deduction for married is $29,200. As a result, you can withdraw $29,200 from 401K and pay 0% tax.

For 2024, capital gains is taxed at 0% for the first $94,050. If you have a taxable account with 90% gains, you can withdraw $104,500 and pay 0% tax.

I subscribe to the 3 bucket strategy. (401K, taxable & Roth). A taxable account seems to be very valuable for harvesting capital gains at 0%. Based on comments from others, having too much money in a 401K seems to be less tax efficient to get your money out.

I only contribute to 401K to get the match. Then I fund the Roth. If I have any money left over, it goes into a taxable brokerage account.

reeshau

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Re: How to you track and factor taxes (realized / unrealized) income??
« Reply #11 on: August 28, 2024, 07:12:57 AM »
I'm not a tax professional. If anything is incorrect, let me know. Below is a modified version of my tax plan for FIRE. Below is an example of how to withdraw $133,700 and pay 0% tax.

For 2024, the standard deduction for married is $29,200. As a result, you can withdraw $29,200 from 401K and pay 0% tax.

You would still owe the 10% early withdrawal penalty (at your age) unless you are on an SEPP plan.

ChpBstrd

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Re: How to you track and factor taxes (realized / unrealized) income??
« Reply #12 on: August 28, 2024, 09:22:11 AM »
It would seem like anyone who actually had this problem would have failed to fund their IRAs over a long period of time or won the lottery, and would be mostly in taxable. This configuration would mean they have minimal flexibility to optimize withdraws from their various accounts to hit particular tax brackets.

In addition, they would have to have a high net worth or relatively high spending to generate more regular interest income, short term capital gains, or long-term capital gains above the income threshold for 0% rates in retirement. The $1M with 3.5% WR person obviously has nothing to worry about.

But to echo the earlier posters, yes, taxes are part of one's expenses. They are part of life, and must be accepted to some extent. IRAs are the weapon of choice for customizing one's taxable income, surfing under tax brackets, and limboing under income limits.

Some other suggestions:
  • Try to capture long-term capital gains instead of short-term most of the time. Not only is short-term trading suboptimal from a returns perspective, but it also generates lots of taxable income at full rates!
  • Move interest-bearing or high-dividend-paying investments to IRAs. Put growth stocks in taxable and hold for long-term capital gains.
  • If under 59.5, make a plan to withdraw from taxable and Roth sources so that taxable income ends up right under thresholds for tax brackets and ACA plans. After 59.5, you'll need to pay taxes on your traditional IRA withdraws and Social Security, unless you've really loaded up on Roth contributions/conversions over the years.
  • If you are ever in a year when your income is in a low tax bracket, fill up taxable income up to the limit of the next bracket by doing a traditional to Roth IRA conversion. E.g. We moved $40k in 2022 when one of us was out of work for medical reasons, and still paid single-digit percentage taxes on our overall income.
  • Learning to live on less and getting your overall spend rate down makes it a lot easier to pay less in taxes and to qualify for ACA subsidies. Thus your SWR for living small may be higher than your SWR for living large.
  • Build a spreadsheet to plan your first few years of withdraws from each source and your expected taxes.