I wouldn't put too much stock in what the recruiter says, but based on what you've said here about liking the partners you met, liking the practice area, 20% raise, better commute, etc., I would probably take the offer. My only hesitation would be, have you had the chance to talk with other associates at the new firm to hear what they really think about working there? Be sure to give your current employer two weeks' notice (or more, if you're feeling generous), and part on good terms.