I think I'm being setup for a layoff?

[RunningintoFI]

I realize when I type this out that people may think I'm nuts but I have a weird feeling in my gut so bear with me and let me know if I'm totally crazy. 

Details:

• Work for a small MFG company that was acquired last Fall by a megacorp
• Have a role as a process improvement manager with one peer reporting to a Director of OE
• Megacorp specializes in Process Improvements/Business Systems - i.e. they keep the structure mostly the same and implement their Business System
• First 8 months of transition our team works hard to try and get everyone up to speed with the new processes and aligned with new terminology/systems
• HR would not change our name to "Business System - Leaders" to align with what other businesses within megacorp title our roles
• Two weeks ago, two new "Business System-Leaders" were hired from within Megacorp and assigned with peer and myself under specific focus teams within the business.  Discover they are one tier above us in company rankings - i.e. we are a M2 band while they are M3 despite us having 5 years of experience on them in process improvements but not within Megacorp obviously
• Today a new VP of business system was assigned to our location with my Director reporting to them
• Also received what appears to be a 15% retention bonus today "thanking me for my strong performance" - payable in 4 months if still employed

I don't know how many people were offered a retention bonus since that is hidden behind a wall of confidentiality agreements, but it is safe to assume it is multiple people due to how many papers was in the pile from the person who handed it to me. 

Now I have been on the opposite side of acquisitions before and seen these types of agreements and they typically are done to keep the best talent around but I feel like the timing on this is very poor for my team.  I can do the math that 3 people were just brought in for what feels like a redundant role that ironically is designed to attack waste within the company.

The way I'm reading this situation is that they want to incentivize me to stick around for 4 months to train my replacement in how things operate around here so they can 'optimize the business' in the Fall and 'right-size' the team with their own people.  Am I off my rocker with this one??  Most of the time people don't view a bonus as a bad sign but I am reading it as a ticking clock to the end of my tenure.   

[iluvzbeach]

I’m sorry you’re going through this right now and, unfortunately, I don’t have any insight as to how this type of thing plays out. However, I am interested in reading what others have to say.

[Abe]

Sorry I don’t understand a lot of the terminology, but my interpretation is that megacorp basically parasitizes other companies, then trains its folks to do whatever the other company did with less experienced (I.e. malleable) people? Isn’t the next step usually jettisoning the remaining parts of the parasitized company for “profits” and “shareholder value”?

I’d say your interpretation is probable enough you should look for other employers that may benefit from your expertise.

[ChpBstrd]

You're definitely about to be laid off in exactly 4 months.

There is a chance you'll also receive a modest severance package at that time, but it's probably not worth the risk of getting dumped on the street and having a period of unemployment. It's a LOT easier to get a job when you have a job, and unemployment is LOW right now, so you might have enough leverage to get a salary bump higher than what the retention bonus was worth. There are zero reasons to sit around and see what happens.

Start looking now. If you've neglected networking so far, you have 4 months to join a trade organization, polish your LinkedIn, talk to recruiters, etc.

I also suspect we are going to have a recession soon (if not now) so unemployment could be higher in the future. It's not worth the risk to wait.

At this point early in the game, I would talk to a couple of industry recruiters. Tell them you need a salary that is your salary plus 15% and that you're not willing to travel more than X miles from your home. They are utterly desperate for warm bodies, so if a qualified person like yourself walks in they are likely to drop everything. Complete idiots are doubling their pay in this environment, so the timing is perfect. Seize the moment.

[RunningintoFI]

You're definitely about to be laid off in exactly 4 months.

There is a chance you'll also receive a modest severance package at that time, but it's probably not worth the risk of getting dumped on the street and having a period of unemployment. It's a LOT easier to get a job when you have a job, and unemployment is LOW right now, so you might have enough leverage to get a salary bump higher than what the retention bonus was worth. There are zero reasons to sit around and see what happens.

Start looking now. If you've neglected networking so far, you have 4 months to join a trade organization, polish your LinkedIn, talk to recruiters, etc.

I also suspect we are going to have a recession soon (if not now) so unemployment could be higher in the future. It's not worth the risk to wait.

At this point early in the game, I would talk to a couple of industry recruiters. Tell them you need a salary that is your salary plus 15% and that you're not willing to travel more than X miles from your home. They are utterly desperate for warm bodies, so if a qualified person like yourself walks in they are likely to drop everything. Complete idiots are doubling their pay in this environment, so the timing is perfect. Seize the moment.

I'm glad to hear I wasn't crazy with the thinking on this one.

I actually started reaching out to my network about a month back when I first heard people were coming onsite in similar roles and have 4 sets of positions in various phases of interviews right now due to the high demand for bodies around the country.  All coming with a 50% pay raise with double PTO for some as well!

So I'm glad to hear that the pro-active approach was 100% the right one.

[bacchi]

What ChpBstrd said.

Been there, done that. Got a pink slip for sticking around.

[2Birds1Stone]

Sounds like you already answered your own question lol.

Congrats on the excellent outcome :)

[jrhampt]

You're definitely about to be laid off in exactly 4 months.

There is a chance you'll also receive a modest severance package at that time, but it's probably not worth the risk of getting dumped on the street and having a period of unemployment. It's a LOT easier to get a job when you have a job, and unemployment is LOW right now, so you might have enough leverage to get a salary bump higher than what the retention bonus was worth. There are zero reasons to sit around and see what happens.

Start looking now. If you've neglected networking so far, you have 4 months to join a trade organization, polish your LinkedIn, talk to recruiters, etc.

I also suspect we are going to have a recession soon (if not now) so unemployment could be higher in the future. It's not worth the risk to wait.

At this point early in the game, I would talk to a couple of industry recruiters. Tell them you need a salary that is your salary plus 15% and that you're not willing to travel more than X miles from your home. They are utterly desperate for warm bodies, so if a qualified person like yourself walks in they are likely to drop everything. Complete idiots are doubling their pay in this environment, so the timing is perfect. Seize the moment.

I'm glad to hear I wasn't crazy with the thinking on this one.

I actually started reaching out to my network about a month back when I first heard people were coming onsite in similar roles and have 4 sets of positions in various phases of interviews right now due to the high demand for bodies around the country.  All coming with a 50% pay raise with double PTO for some as well!

So I'm glad to hear that the pro-active approach was 100% the right one.

Sweet!  Sounds like you're ahead of the game and made the right moves.  Hopefully you'll be deciding among multiple great offers soon.

[ChpBstrd]

You're definitely about to be laid off in exactly 4 months.

There is a chance you'll also receive a modest severance package at that time, but it's probably not worth the risk of getting dumped on the street and having a period of unemployment. It's a LOT easier to get a job when you have a job, and unemployment is LOW right now, so you might have enough leverage to get a salary bump higher than what the retention bonus was worth. There are zero reasons to sit around and see what happens.

Start looking now. If you've neglected networking so far, you have 4 months to join a trade organization, polish your LinkedIn, talk to recruiters, etc.

I also suspect we are going to have a recession soon (if not now) so unemployment could be higher in the future. It's not worth the risk to wait.

At this point early in the game, I would talk to a couple of industry recruiters. Tell them you need a salary that is your salary plus 15% and that you're not willing to travel more than X miles from your home. They are utterly desperate for warm bodies, so if a qualified person like yourself walks in they are likely to drop everything. Complete idiots are doubling their pay in this environment, so the timing is perfect. Seize the moment.

I'm glad to hear I wasn't crazy with the thinking on this one.

I actually started reaching out to my network about a month back when I first heard people were coming onsite in similar roles and have 4 sets of positions in various phases of interviews right now due to the high demand for bodies around the country.  All coming with a 50% pay raise with double PTO for some as well!

So I'm glad to hear that the pro-active approach was 100% the right one.

Sweet!  Sounds like you're ahead of the game and made the right moves.  Hopefully you'll be deciding among multiple great offers soon.

Fortune favors the proactive! You'll definitely get a fat raise out of this. Just remember to send the entire raise to your 401k rather than blowing it!

I would lean toward positions that are less likely to be cut if there is a recession in the near future. You don't want to be the person with only 6 months' tenure when the order to reduce headcount comes. E.g.

-positions where you're replacing someone else, rather than new positions created as a business expansion
-positions at companies that sell recession-resistant goods and services, rather than cyclical companies with a history of layoffs
-positions at financially stable companies with conservative debt loads
-positions where you are the key person, not the 5th person on a 5 person team

[Gremlin]

Trust your gut on this. You are one step ahead of them.

[Dicey]

What ChpBstrd said.

Been there, done that. Got a pink slip for sticking around.

+2. I didn't get pink slipped, but I was shuffled into a position that made gave me the final push to FIRE. Your story sounds familiar, and not in a good way. In my manufacturing experience, severances tend to be meager. One week per year was the norm, which is pretty chintzy, IMO. There is probably greener grass out there, and it's fairly easily attainable at the moment.

[RunningintoFI]

You're definitely about to be laid off in exactly 4 months.

There is a chance you'll also receive a modest severance package at that time, but it's probably not worth the risk of getting dumped on the street and having a period of unemployment. It's a LOT easier to get a job when you have a job, and unemployment is LOW right now, so you might have enough leverage to get a salary bump higher than what the retention bonus was worth. There are zero reasons to sit around and see what happens.

Start looking now. If you've neglected networking so far, you have 4 months to join a trade organization, polish your LinkedIn, talk to recruiters, etc.

I also suspect we are going to have a recession soon (if not now) so unemployment could be higher in the future. It's not worth the risk to wait.

At this point early in the game, I would talk to a couple of industry recruiters. Tell them you need a salary that is your salary plus 15% and that you're not willing to travel more than X miles from your home. They are utterly desperate for warm bodies, so if a qualified person like yourself walks in they are likely to drop everything. Complete idiots are doubling their pay in this environment, so the timing is perfect. Seize the moment.

I'm glad to hear I wasn't crazy with the thinking on this one.

I actually started reaching out to my network about a month back when I first heard people were coming onsite in similar roles and have 4 sets of positions in various phases of interviews right now due to the high demand for bodies around the country.  All coming with a 50% pay raise with double PTO for some as well!

So I'm glad to hear that the pro-active approach was 100% the right one.

Sweet!  Sounds like you're ahead of the game and made the right moves.  Hopefully you'll be deciding among multiple great offers soon.

Fortune favors the proactive! You'll definitely get a fat raise out of this. Just remember to send the entire raise to your 401k rather than blowing it!

I would lean toward positions that are less likely to be cut if there is a recession in the near future. You don't want to be the person with only 6 months' tenure when the order to reduce headcount comes. E.g.

-positions where you're replacing someone else, rather than new positions created as a business expansion
-positions at companies that sell recession-resistant goods and services, rather than cyclical companies with a history of layoffs
-positions at financially stable companies with conservative debt loads
-positions where you are the key person, not the 5th person on a 5 person team

Great feedback on the last points!  I have been generally lucky in my career that I have mostly worked in human/pet food manufacturing, and pharmaceutical manufacturing.  So I wouldn't say they are recession proof but they seem to be more resilient overall.  Much better positioned than the unfortunate timing to be in aerospace manufacturing when COVID hit anyway. 

I will definitely be keeping an eye on the chance to be THE PERSON instead of just another person for the next opportunity though.  Thank you for providing that feedback. 

[dcheesi]

Yeah, seems pretty clear to me. Megacorp specializes in doing what you do, so their justification for every buyout inevitably involves "saving" that company from the "inadequate" solutions that went before --i.e., your work to date. That automatically makes you the "problem" to be "solved", no matter how great a job you actually did/do.

[G-dog]

Whether you are right or not about being on the short list, a 50% raise makes that question pretty irrelevant IMO, unless there are some other big downsides you haven’t mentioned (health insurance, pension, etc.).

[Paul der Krake]

Complete idiots are doubling their pay in this environment, so the timing is perfect. Seize the moment.

When I get a raise, it's because I deserve it. When I don't, it's this economy, man.

[Rdy2Fire]

You're definitely about to be laid off in exactly 4 months.

YES!!! ^^

I'm glad to hear I wasn't crazy with the thinking on this one.

I actually started reaching out to my network about a month back when I first heard people were coming onsite in similar roles and have 4 sets of positions in various phases of interviews right now due to the high demand for bodies around the country.  All coming with a 50% pay raise with double PTO for some as well!

So I'm glad to hear that the pro-active approach was 100% the right one.

Nope you're not crazy.. Look for a gig that starts in about 4.5 months, do enough to hold on, collect your 'bonus' and whatever severance and say goodbye

[ChpBstrd]

Complete idiots are doubling their pay in this environment, so the timing is perfect. Seize the moment.

When I get a raise, it's because I deserve it. When I don't, it's this economy, man.

Hahahaha!
Yes, wealth as everything to do with deserving it, as we all know. /s

[Sibley]

askamanager.org for resume/cover letter/interview/general work advice.

Good luck!

[BlueHouse]

@ChpBstrd nailed it. 

2 more cents:  Remember EVERYTHING is negotiable.  Severance packages are the most negotiable, because by that time, they just want you to go away quietly.  A lack of shame & embarrassment is the most valuable trait when it comes to it. 

I'm sure you'll find something before Megacorp wastes you, but just in case, negotiate that severance and make them pay dearly. 

[RunningintoFI]

Plenty of good feedback and advice in the comments above! Thanks for everyone's responses so far. 

Updating some of the details - I had another recruiter call this morning who asked me to immediately apply for the job because she knows I have other things in motion. 

One trick I have been trying with every recruiter/hiring manager I speak with is asking for $5,000 more for each subsequent position to see how much the marketplace may have changed in the last year.  So far not a single one has blinked or said "that is outside the range for this position" so that gives me a lot of feedback that I A) need to push for more from the first recruiters and B) I can play off the fact that most of them know I'm interviewing with multiple other companies to drive up the salary negotiation.  I know the rule is not to throw out the first number but every single one of these positions is a minimum 50% raise so I'm not going to complain at any of them.  Now it's just funny money and a game to me since I was already saving ~60% of my current salary..

One fun work story was talking to my current manager and asking him how he feels about our roles with all the new people coming onboard.  "Call me naive but I don't think we should be that worried.  There's plenty of people here who really like us and would go to bat for us."  "Oh, you mean like the VP of HR that was just removed due to the redundancy of his role?"  To be fair to my manager, we are already 300 head count short of our business needs and will need an additional 100 people by the end of the year to remain on track for our 40% growth target as a business. 

Would I be crazy for trying to negotiate an early severance and elimination of my position instead of quitting once another position is finalized??  I feel like it's hard to do that when they know you have to quit anyway to accept a different position..

[kenner]

@ChpBstrd nailed it. 

2 more cents:  Remember EVERYTHING is negotiable.  Severance packages are the most negotiable, because by that time, they just want you to go away quietly.  A lack of shame & embarrassment is the most valuable trait when it comes to it. 

I'm sure you'll find something before Megacorp wastes you, but just in case, negotiate that severance and make them pay dearly.

Individually maybe.  Megacorp acquires smaller company and lays off redundant employees as a group...you can certainly try, but I'd bet you're looking at a pretty set package and demanding that they give you the moon isn't likely to accomplish much.  You're better off finding that new job and moving on.

[LightStache]

Plenty of good feedback and advice in the comments above! Thanks for everyone's responses so far. 

Updating some of the details - I had another recruiter call this morning who asked me to immediately apply for the job because she knows I have other things in motion. 

One trick I have been trying with every recruiter/hiring manager I speak with is asking for $5,000 more for each subsequent position to see how much the marketplace may have changed in the last year.  So far not a single one has blinked or said "that is outside the range for this position" so that gives me a lot of feedback that I A) need to push for more from the first recruiters and B) I can play off the fact that most of them know I'm interviewing with multiple other companies to drive up the salary negotiation.  I know the rule is not to throw out the first number but every single one of these positions is a minimum 50% raise so I'm not going to complain at any of them.  Now it's just funny money and a game to me since I was already saving ~60% of my current salary..

One fun work story was talking to my current manager and asking him how he feels about our roles with all the new people coming onboard.  "Call me naive but I don't think we should be that worried.  There's plenty of people here who really like us and would go to bat for us."  "Oh, you mean like the VP of HR that was just removed due to the redundancy of his role?"  To be fair to my manager, we are already 300 head count short of our business needs and will need an additional 100 people by the end of the year to remain on track for our 40% growth target as a business. 

Would I be crazy for trying to negotiate an early severance and elimination of my position instead of quitting once another position is finalized??  I feel like it's hard to do that when they know you have to quit anyway to accept a different position..

I might be in the minority but I've never ascribed to "don't be the first one to give a number" and I've always done well with comp.

My feeling is that when I put out a number first, I'm leading the negotiation. I know what the market is willing to bear for my labor and I want them to know I know. Let the company be the reactive party.

And if I'm out of their range, we should know up front so they can adjust the range or we can shake hands, part ways, and stop wasting time.

[BlueHouse]

@ChpBstrd nailed it. 

2 more cents:  Remember EVERYTHING is negotiable.  Severance packages are the most negotiable, because by that time, they just want you to go away quietly.  A lack of shame & embarrassment is the most valuable trait when it comes to it. 

I'm sure you'll find something before Megacorp wastes you, but just in case, negotiate that severance and make them pay dearly.

Individually maybe.  Megacorp acquires smaller company and lays off redundant employees as a group...you can certainly try, but I'd bet you're looking at a pretty set package and demanding that they give you the moon isn't likely to accomplish much.  You're better off finding that new job and moving on.

I've been through 3 layoffs, two of which were due to buyouts by larger companies.  These companies have a standard package, but more than anything, they just want you to go quietly.  They do not want you to disrupt the remaining workforce.  I never actually asked for the moon, but I did end up getting more than the standard package.  In one case I was able to get the company to cover the cost of COBRA for a few months.  In the other I got an extra $5k (this was back in 1993, so maybe worth a bit more today).  I also didn't act like a hard-ass negotiator, because I think of myself as the worst negotiator on the planet.  But what I've found is that almost everyone is a terrible negotiator.  It's uncomfortable and it feels petty -- for both sides.  So generally, I was either just quiet and didn't put my hand out to take the paper they wanted me to sign, or I said something (meekly) about how would I cover the cost of insurance, or once I said "I just need to have my attorneys review this offer".  The last thing I wanted to do would be to make it ugly or confrontational.  Still, the offeror was so uncomfortable doing this thing, that they just want to get out of that room as soon as possible.  Make it last a bit longer and they start offering more for your signature on that paper!

[RunningintoFI]

Just wanted to come full circle with this story and share a really wild bit of success!

I navigated my way through 4 different concurrent interviews for similar jobs and wound up having the pick of the litter at the end of it.   The end outcome is a 60% salary raise, with the company moving me 8 hours closer to home with an additional $15K moving stipend, and a 6% improvement in 401k contribution with an immediate vesting schedule. 

It was a wild process featuring long problem solving presentations and interviews with multiple companies scheduled back to back while maintaining a regular day job but it all worked out for the best in the end.  Have to thank my current employer for providing the incentive to seek very beneficial employment extra early. 

Thanks everyone for your feedback a month back when this was all still fresh!   

[srrb]

Congrats!

[mm1970]

great news!

[Paul der Krake]

The past year has been incredible for leveling up at work, so many stories of people jumping and getting big raises. It will be interesting to see if the trend continues now that we appear to be entering a recession.

[bryan995]

Great news! Now continue to do the exact same thing every 18-24 months :)

The boomer days of working for one company for 45 years are over.

The second you start a new job, is the same second your salary begins to fall behind the market (unless you are a top 1% unicorn performer).

[RunningintoFI]

Great news! Now continue to do the exact same thing every 18-24 months :)

The boomer days of working for one company for 45 years are over.

The second you start a new job, is the same second your salary begins to fall behind the market (unless you are a top 1% unicorn performer).

It was very interesting being able to talk to multiple companies around the same region hiring for the same position title.  I could directly compare their total compensation packages and benefits plans and actually inform them that they were wayyyy behind the market in some cases.  And then they would respond, "I'm sorry, we can't meet that other offer since it would destroy the equity within our current existing team structure", which is a not-so-subtle way of indicating they underpay their employees and have no desire to change that fact. 

To your first point, this will be my 4th company transition + move since October 2019, so I think it is safe to say I have taken this pattern to the extreme at this point - even for our current times.  After having to move across states for all of them, I'm very much ready to settle down for a decent bit, just to actually have a chance to build more than transitory relationships..

[lemanfan]

Nice!  :)