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Learning, Sharing, and Teaching => Ask a Mustachian => Topic started by: TheAnonOne on August 12, 2019, 01:41:11 PM

Title: Home Solar Array? How much? Worth it?
Post by: TheAnonOne on August 12, 2019, 01:41:11 PM
Hello,

I got a new house, it is pretty large and fancy :)

This is my first home that is a 'single family' and I am interested in offsetting my electricity. I have not even received the first power bill but I imagine they will be 150-300 a month. I also drive an electric car (volt) which costs $30ish a month to charge.

I think I am a good candidate for solar but living in MN it might not be the best state for it.

That being said... where do I start? Is it worth doing this DIY? Back of the napkin math for a $200 average energy bill translates to a nearly 20KW system. Is this right?

So... Many... Questions!!! Anyway, very excited to learn more!
Title: Re: Home Solar Array? How much? Worth it?
Post by: Morning Glory on August 12, 2019, 01:51:54 PM
It wouldn't hurt to get a free estimate from a solar company. There's too many variables to figure it out otherwise: roof direction and pitch, height and number of trees , cost of power, rebate/ incentive from power company, increase in facility charge, local permits, etc.
Title: Re: Home Solar Array? How much? Worth it?
Post by: TheAnonOne on August 12, 2019, 02:13:51 PM
It wouldn't hurt to get a free estimate from a solar company. There's too many variables to figure it out otherwise: roof direction and pitch, height and number of trees , cost of power, rebate/ incentive from power company, increase in facility charge, local permits, etc.

I signed up to get a few calls and estimates from companies. The estimates listed online seem insane (25k->40k) but I guess that's only the cost a nicer newer car these days and it will actually pay me back.

Title: Re: Home Solar Array? How much? Worth it?
Post by: Cadman on August 12, 2019, 05:15:06 PM
Financial Considerations first:
1. What are your local utility's rules on grid connection?  Power gen cap? Credits & payback rules, etc. If it'll take decades for payback, forget it.
2. Investigate any rebates available to offset installation cost. A lot of these have dried up now that PoCo's are feeling the hurt from homeowner PV.
3. Determine what State and Fed credits you can claim for the year the PV would go into service.

Practical Considerations:
1. Roof or ground mount? If roof, what's your current roof condition? If in need of re-shingling in the next couple years, that should be done first.
2. Snow load. Will it be practical to clear the panels of snow during the winter? Cold, sunny winter days in the midwest can generate a LOT of power, but all panels in a string need to be 100% clear. Mine are set at roughly 45 degrees and I have to manually clear them. Not fun when it's below zero and snow is dumping down off the array into your boots, but at least they're not on an un-reachable roof.

Get the answers to these first, then go for the quotes.
Title: Re: Home Solar Array? How much? Worth it?
Post by: TheAnonOne on August 12, 2019, 07:55:00 PM
Financial Considerations first:
1. What are your local utility's rules on grid connection?  Power gen cap? Credits & payback rules, etc. If it'll take decades for payback, forget it.
2. Investigate any rebates available to offset installation cost. A lot of these have dried up now that PoCo's are feeling the hurt from homeowner PV.
3. Determine what State and Fed credits you can claim for the year the PV would go into service.

Practical Considerations:
1. Roof or ground mount? If roof, what's your current roof condition? If in need of re-shingling in the next couple years, that should be done first.
2. Snow load. Will it be practical to clear the panels of snow during the winter? Cold, sunny winter days in the midwest can generate a LOT of power, but all panels in a string need to be 100% clear. Mine are set at roughly 45 degrees and I have to manually clear them. Not fun when it's below zero and snow is dumping down off the array into your boots, but at least they're not on an un-reachable roof.

Get the answers to these first, then go for the quotes.

We have...
Net metering, paid at 7-8c per KW
30% tax credit fed
0% sales tax state
0% added property taxes

It will be too high to get to unfortunately... can't you install mini inverters to alleviate this?
Title: Re: Home Solar Array? How much? Worth it?
Post by: nereo on August 13, 2019, 04:54:02 AM
We've been going through the steps here in snowy new england, and I've been getting some feedback from two friends who installed them a few years ago

A few comments:
your latitude is not that big an issue; the world leader in PVs is Germany, and they are much further north than MN

Snow load is helped by newer mini-inverters, though if you have a reasonably pitched roof the snow typically clears a few hours after the snow stops. All the houses around us (and there are many) seem to self-clear after a day or so.

payback (break-even) estimates here seem to cluster around the 8 year mark, and we also have no state tax credit/incentive. How much you pay for electricity matters a great deal, and driving/charging a vehicle tilts the equation heavily in your favor.

Title: Re: Home Solar Array? How much? Worth it?
Post by: Cadman on August 13, 2019, 07:56:31 AM
Financial Considerations first:
1. What are your local utility's rules on grid connection?  Power gen cap? Credits & payback rules, etc. If it'll take decades for payback, forget it.
2. Investigate any rebates available to offset installation cost. A lot of these have dried up now that PoCo's are feeling the hurt from homeowner PV.
3. Determine what State and Fed credits you can claim for the year the PV would go into service.

Practical Considerations:
1. Roof or ground mount? If roof, what's your current roof condition? If in need of re-shingling in the next couple years, that should be done first.
2. Snow load. Will it be practical to clear the panels of snow during the winter? Cold, sunny winter days in the midwest can generate a LOT of power, but all panels in a string need to be 100% clear. Mine are set at roughly 45 degrees and I have to manually clear them. Not fun when it's below zero and snow is dumping down off the array into your boots, but at least they're not on an un-reachable roof.

Get the answers to these first, then go for the quotes.

We have...
Net metering, paid at 7-8c per KW
30% tax credit fed
0% sales tax state
0% added property taxes

It will be too high to get to unfortunately... can't you install mini inverters to alleviate this?

Mini-inverters will help a little, though I personally would avoid them if you can as they really add more cost and complexity than necessary, and are intended for arrays where you may have a panel or two with partial shading. For snow, you're looking at a reduction from all-panels.

What's going to happen is that you'll get a little blowing snow which will stick to the panels and rapidly freeze (think of that awful ice on your windshield that you can't scrape through). At this point, your output will probably be under inverter strike voltage so you'll have zero production. Now comes the snow dump which will add several inches of thermal insulation which will glue itself to that ice. The only practical way to clear it is to rake down the snow on a sunny day to allow that radiant energy to penetrate the ice and warm the panel from within, which'll break that ice bond and gravity will do the rest. If you try it on a cloudy day, it won't melt, and more blowing snow will simply stick. And if MN is anything like IA, the brightest, highest production winter solar days are usually accompanied with negative temps. Good times.
Title: Re: Home Solar Array? How much? Worth it?
Post by: TheAnonOne on August 13, 2019, 08:08:11 AM
Financial Considerations first:
1. What are your local utility's rules on grid connection?  Power gen cap? Credits & payback rules, etc. If it'll take decades for payback, forget it.
2. Investigate any rebates available to offset installation cost. A lot of these have dried up now that PoCo's are feeling the hurt from homeowner PV.
3. Determine what State and Fed credits you can claim for the year the PV would go into service.

Practical Considerations:
1. Roof or ground mount? If roof, what's your current roof condition? If in need of re-shingling in the next couple years, that should be done first.
2. Snow load. Will it be practical to clear the panels of snow during the winter? Cold, sunny winter days in the midwest can generate a LOT of power, but all panels in a string need to be 100% clear. Mine are set at roughly 45 degrees and I have to manually clear them. Not fun when it's below zero and snow is dumping down off the array into your boots, but at least they're not on an un-reachable roof.

Get the answers to these first, then go for the quotes.

We have...
Net metering, paid at 7-8c per KW
30% tax credit fed
0% sales tax state
0% added property taxes

It will be too high to get to unfortunately... can't you install mini inverters to alleviate this?

Mini-inverters will help a little, though I personally would avoid them if you can as they really add more cost and complexity than necessary, and are intended for arrays where you may have a panel or two with partial shading. For snow, you're looking at a reduction from all-panels.

What's going to happen is that you'll get a little blowing snow which will stick to the panels and rapidly freeze (think of that awful ice on your windshield that you can't scrape through). At this point, your output will probably be under inverter strike voltage so you'll have zero production. Now comes the snow dump which will add several inches of thermal insulation which will glue itself to that ice. The only practical way to clear it is to rake down the snow on a sunny day to allow that radiant energy to penetrate the ice and warm the panel from within, which'll break that ice bond and gravity will do the rest. If you try it on a cloudy day, it won't melt, and more blowing snow will simply stick. And if MN is anything like IA, the brightest, highest production winter solar days are usually accompanied with negative temps. Good times.

dumb question, don't they make something like an electric blanket for these things? Attach one under the panels and turn it on occasionally?

Do these cause ice dams on roofs?
Title: Re: Home Solar Array? How much? Worth it?
Post by: nereo on August 13, 2019, 08:29:59 AM
Quote
Do these cause ice dams on roofs?

not if they are installed properly.  The panels themselves are mounted on metal brackets which should run along the slope of your roof.

I'm surprised to hear that others in the midwest have had problems with snow and ice accumulation on the panels.  From what I've observed and researched around here it isn't often a problem on a pitched roof.  The panels themselves have a pretty low friction coefficient (less than a metal roof) so snow tends to slide off pretty rapidly, and being dark they absorb light which melts remaining ice.  From my observations the snow slid off the panels first, then off our metal roof a bit later. Maybe ice storms are more common in MN than NE (shrug).

our current (rental) roof has an 8:12 pitch (about average for a traditional colonial-style home) and panel production only stopped when it was actually snowing, or for a few hours afterwards.  We have mini inverters, since some of the panels are occasionally shaded by a tree in the late afternoon summer days. 
YMMV.
Title: Re: Home Solar Array? How much? Worth it?
Post by: TheAnonOne on September 10, 2019, 01:33:47 PM
OK, everyone, update time.

Costs
$43,500 - 13.8KW System
$48,500 - 16.0KW System

I think I am going to go with the 16KW system.

Rebates and Financial Help


$48,500 - 30% tax credit = $33,950

After 10 LONG years, the price will be around 20k with the solar rewards program.

Ignoring Solar rewards the payback is around 10-11 years and including it the payback should be around 7-8 years.

Return on cash is around $3,500 - $4,000 yearly and if we use the POST 30% rebate price of $33,950 the return is....

10.3% to 11.7% (Though it functions more like simple interest because it cannot compound, solar panels do not create more solar panels)

Not too bad!!!!

For anyone considering this, the federal rebate drops to 26% for 2020, 22% for 2021, and then 0%
Title: Re: Home Solar Array? How much? Worth it?
Post by: sonoranson on September 10, 2019, 02:44:07 PM
Ask your sales person about potential pests.  Here, pigeons really love to nest under the panels to get out of the sun and elements.  They also like to crap on the roof in the shade provided by those panels.  My neighbor and I were both quoted over 4k plus a maintenance contract of a few hundred every 2 years for 'maintenance'.  They essentially put wire fencing as skirts from the panel sides onto the roof to keep them out.  I've seen posts from others who are leasing their solar grids where the vendor came out and installed those fencing systems for free.  I'm going with the pellet gun approach since they mostly prefer my neighbor's roof but you may want to see about having them include that protection during the install.  Hopefully free.
Title: Re: Home Solar Array? How much? Worth it?
Post by: TheAnonOne on September 10, 2019, 02:53:18 PM
Ask your sales person about potential pests.  Here, pigeons really love to nest under the panels to get out of the sun and elements.  They also like to crap on the roof in the shade provided by those panels.  My neighbor and I were both quoted over 4k plus a maintenance contract of a few hundred every 2 years for 'maintenance'.  They essentially put wire fencing as skirts from the panel sides onto the roof to keep them out.  I've seen posts from others who are leasing their solar grids where the vendor came out and installed those fencing systems for free.  I'm going with the pellet gun approach since they mostly prefer my neighbor's roof but you may want to see about having them include that protection during the install.  Hopefully free.

Will look into this, though, it sounds like it might look kinda off? Maybe wait until it becomes a problem first?
Title: Re: Home Solar Array? How much? Worth it?
Post by: jamesbond007 on September 10, 2019, 05:09:03 PM
I wish I could convince my HOA to install solar panels. Sigh.
Title: Re: Home Solar Array? How much? Worth it?
Post by: PatronWizard11 on September 10, 2019, 08:22:11 PM
Go to the solar forums and post your quotes there. That’s what I did. Got a better understanding of what people were paying at the time. PPW is the number you’ll be comparing.

I also took my quotes and made other solar companies beat it. Had three in the running and got the PPW way down from the initial quote. 
Title: Re: Home Solar Array? How much? Worth it?
Post by: TheAnonOne on September 10, 2019, 08:59:41 PM
Go to the solar forums and post your quotes there. That’s what I did. Got a better understanding of what people were paying at the time. PPW is the number you’ll be comparing.

I also took my quotes and made other solar companies beat it. Had three in the running and got the PPW way down from the initial quote.

At about $3.10 /w which is the 2nd lowest quote I got.
Title: Re: Home Solar Array? How much? Worth it?
Post by: nereo on September 11, 2019, 06:53:37 AM
Ask your sales person about potential pests.  Here, pigeons really love to nest under the panels to get out of the sun and elements.  They also like to crap on the roof in the shade provided by those panels.  My neighbor and I were both quoted over 4k plus a maintenance contract of a few hundred every 2 years for 'maintenance'.  They essentially put wire fencing as skirts from the panel sides onto the roof to keep them out.  I've seen posts from others who are leasing their solar grids where the vendor came out and installed those fencing systems for free.  I'm going with the pellet gun approach since they mostly prefer my neighbor's roof but you may want to see about having them include that protection during the install.  Hopefully free.

Uh... just be really careful not to hit your PVs...  I don't think they take kindly to pellets.
Title: Re: Home Solar Array? How much? Worth it?
Post by: WSUCoug1994 on September 11, 2019, 08:34:25 AM
16KW is huge.  Do you have a sense of your usage?  I have a 48 panel - 13KW system that generates between 50 - 70 KWH per day.  I can't imagine needing more than that.  Now that I think about it weather could have a big impact as I am in California with limited weather implications for generation.
Title: Re: Home Solar Array? How much? Worth it?
Post by: historienne on September 11, 2019, 08:44:43 AM
We had solar panels in a very snowy northern state.  Snow fell off pretty quickly, and we sometimes helped it along with a snow rake. 
Title: Re: Home Solar Array? How much? Worth it?
Post by: 2sk22 on September 12, 2019, 10:06:10 AM
16KW is huge.  Do you have a sense of your usage?  I have a 48 panel - 13KW system that generates between 50 - 70 KWH per day.  I can't imagine needing more than that.  Now that I think about it weather could have a big impact as I am in California with limited weather implications for generation.

I agree - this does seem like a very high capacity system. In NJ, we have a solar panel installation nominally rated at 8.4 KW and here are the statistics for power production this year:

Each of these months we were net negative in our power consumption and, mind you, we have two zone air conditioning with both running at some points. With such a high capacity system, you could consider getting a battery backup so that you could capture some of the excess your panels will be producing.
Title: Re: Home Solar Array? How much? Worth it?
Post by: Cadman on September 12, 2019, 10:27:51 AM
Just so I understand correctly, you get paid 7 cents for every kWH produced? Even if you consume it yourself? If that's the case, while this is a big system, I'd be inclined to go for it.

Generally speaking, it costs less to build bigger initially than it does to add later, and since a large portion of installation cost is labor, the 16th kw is cheaper than the 12th, so to speak.
Title: Re: Home Solar Array? How much? Worth it?
Post by: TheAnonOne on September 13, 2019, 01:38:55 PM
Just so I understand correctly, you get paid 7 cents for every kWH produced? Even if you consume it yourself? If that's the case, while this is a big system, I'd be inclined to go for it.

Generally speaking, it costs less to build bigger initially than it does to add later, and since a large portion of installation cost is labor, the 16th kw is cheaper than the 12th, so to speak.

Yeah, the power company and State teamed up and offer two things.

1. Net Metering - everyone knows about this.
2. 'Solar Rewards' - 7c per KW/h produced. Paid 1 time a year for 10 years.

Now, solar rewards is a freebee give away, so they limit you based on 120% of the last 12 months of use age. OR because we just got a house, they go on sqft. Ours allows for 13KW being a very unmustachian 4200sqft. They also allow 3 more KW if you have an electric car (I have a volt).

Basically, because of solar rewards, you should just maximize either the roof space, or the program limit, whatever comes first. It's been guesstimated that the system will make stated value * 1.1 or 1.2

16000 * 1.1 = 17,600 KW/h yearly
16000 * 1.2 = 19,200 KW/h yearly

$1,232‬ to $1,344 a year, ON TOP OF net metering, no property tax increase, 30% federal rebate, ect. This is what lowers turn around time from 10-11 years down to around 7.
Title: Re: Home Solar Array? How much? Worth it?
Post by: Mgmny on September 13, 2019, 01:39:38 PM
Hey Anonone!

I live in MN too, and I have "All Energy Solar" coming out to give me a quote next saturday. Any advice? Did you get a quote from them too?
Title: Re: Home Solar Array? How much? Worth it?
Post by: TheAnonOne on September 13, 2019, 01:41:21 PM
Hey Anonone!

I live in MN too, and I have "All Energy Solar" coming out to give me a quote next saturday. Any advice? Did you get a quote from them too?

MN Solar, located west of the cities a bit. I wish they had a referral program lol.
Title: Re: Home Solar Array? How much? Worth it?
Post by: TheAnonOne on September 13, 2019, 01:45:08 PM
Hey Anonone!

I live in MN too, and I have "All Energy Solar" coming out to give me a quote next saturday. Any advice? Did you get a quote from them too?

I had a quote from them and 4 other places. Frankly, they all were pretty close. You can maybe make them fight a little bit. I got mine to go from 45k down to 43.5k but then we increased the size once we measured my roof. So the final is $48,000  (minus all the listed stuff of course)
Title: Re: Home Solar Array? How much? Worth it?
Post by: Mgmny on September 23, 2019, 03:06:21 PM
Hey TheAnon!

I had my solar quote from All Energy Solar in Minnesota over the weekend.

My house will likely support an 8.5 kW system from Xcel energy.

What i was told: $29k install, 30% federal credit $8700, and 10 years of $700 per year from Xcel for their solar rewards $7000, so the total is 29-8.7-7 =  $13,300 for the system. On a 15 year loan at 3.5% (i only put down $500), of the 29000 - 30% credit (so like 20-21k total) that is a payment of $150 a month. They estimated that I would produce $120 a month in electricity and it would cost $150. With the extra $60 a month in the Xcel solar rewards i'm getting $20 a month in extra money.

Yes, i'm ignoring the $500 initial investment. In my opinion $500 for solar panels is pretty cool and worth it. Yes the Xcel rewards are only good for 10 years i think, so after year 10 (2029) who knows what will happen, but i make up my $500 investment by year 3, so as long as my electricity is offset and i'm close to $0 even for the next 8 years, it should be OK no problem.
Title: Re: Home Solar Array? How much? Worth it?
Post by: TheAnonOne on September 23, 2019, 03:13:28 PM
Hey TheAnon!

I had my solar quote from All Energy Solar in Minnesota over the weekend.

My house will likely support an 8.5 kW system from Xcel energy.

What i was told: $29k install, 30% federal credit $8700, and 10 years of $700 per year from Xcel for their solar rewards $7000, so the total is 29-8.7-7 =  $13,300 for the system. On a 15 year loan at 3.5% (i only put down $500), of the 29000 - 30% credit (so like 20-21k total) that is a payment of $150 a month. They estimated that I would produce $120 a month in electricity and it would cost $150. With the extra $60 a month in the Xcel solar rewards i'm getting $20 a month in extra money.

Yes, i'm ignoring the $500 initial investment. In my opinion $500 for solar panels is pretty cool and worth it. Yes the Xcel rewards are only good for 10 years i think, so after year 10 (2029) who knows what will happen, but i make up my $500 investment by year 3, so as long as my electricity is offset and i'm close to $0 even for the next 8 years, it should be OK no problem.

If I were you, I would basically just ignore solar rewards from the "Cost of the system" number. It is a little deceptive to me to include payments over 10 YEARS as reducing the system cost.

For you, $29,000 - $8,700 = $20,300 for cost and you get some yearly payments as well that help reduce the total 'turn around time'/'breakeven'

----

A side note that I found interesting.
My cost is $48,500 for a 15.6kw system or $3.10/w
Your cost is $29,000 for a 8.5kw system or $3.40/w

The larger the system the better for a per watt calculation it seems.
Title: Re: Home Solar Array? How much? Worth it?
Post by: TheAnonOne on September 23, 2019, 03:26:49 PM
Hey TheAnon!

I had my solar quote from All Energy Solar in Minnesota over the weekend.

My house will likely support an 8.5 kW system from Xcel energy.

What i was told: $29k install, 30% federal credit $8700, and 10 years of $700 per year from Xcel for their solar rewards $7000, so the total is 29-8.7-7 =  $13,300 for the system. On a 15 year loan at 3.5% (i only put down $500), of the 29000 - 30% credit (so like 20-21k total) that is a payment of $150 a month. They estimated that I would produce $120 a month in electricity and it would cost $150. With the extra $60 a month in the Xcel solar rewards i'm getting $20 a month in extra money.

Yes, i'm ignoring the $500 initial investment. In my opinion $500 for solar panels is pretty cool and worth it. Yes the Xcel rewards are only good for 10 years i think, so after year 10 (2029) who knows what will happen, but i make up my $500 investment by year 3, so as long as my electricity is offset and i'm close to $0 even for the next 8 years, it should be OK no problem.

Also, be a little careful of the financing terms, they act like HELOCs and have pretty high fees.... I got a loan through a bank for 55k non-collateralized but the rate is higher (7%), but no fees. I am paying it off in 2-3 months anyway from the sale of my other house.
Title: Re: Home Solar Array? How much? Worth it?
Post by: Mgmny on September 24, 2019, 07:40:39 AM
Hey TheAnon!

I had my solar quote from All Energy Solar in Minnesota over the weekend.

My house will likely support an 8.5 kW system from Xcel energy.

What i was told: $29k install, 30% federal credit $8700, and 10 years of $700 per year from Xcel for their solar rewards $7000, so the total is 29-8.7-7 =  $13,300 for the system. On a 15 year loan at 3.5% (i only put down $500), of the 29000 - 30% credit (so like 20-21k total) that is a payment of $150 a month. They estimated that I would produce $120 a month in electricity and it would cost $150. With the extra $60 a month in the Xcel solar rewards i'm getting $20 a month in extra money.

Yes, i'm ignoring the $500 initial investment. In my opinion $500 for solar panels is pretty cool and worth it. Yes the Xcel rewards are only good for 10 years i think, so after year 10 (2029) who knows what will happen, but i make up my $500 investment by year 3, so as long as my electricity is offset and i'm close to $0 even for the next 8 years, it should be OK no problem.

Also, be a little careful of the financing terms, they act like HELOCs and have pretty high fees.... I got a loan through a bank for 55k non-collateralized but the rate is higher (7%), but no fees. I am paying it off in 2-3 months anyway from the sale of my other house.

Hmm... I'll have to ask more about this, because the loan is through "Sunlight Financial" and I just dug through the 32 page doc they had me sign yesterday, and I don't see anything about origination fees, etc. The only fees mentioned are like late fees, etc, which i don't anticipate acquiring.

Are there origination fees, etc. that should be called out somewhere?
Title: Re: Home Solar Array? How much? Worth it?
Post by: TheAnonOne on September 24, 2019, 07:42:20 AM
Hey TheAnon!

I had my solar quote from All Energy Solar in Minnesota over the weekend.

My house will likely support an 8.5 kW system from Xcel energy.

What i was told: $29k install, 30% federal credit $8700, and 10 years of $700 per year from Xcel for their solar rewards $7000, so the total is 29-8.7-7 =  $13,300 for the system. On a 15 year loan at 3.5% (i only put down $500), of the 29000 - 30% credit (so like 20-21k total) that is a payment of $150 a month. They estimated that I would produce $120 a month in electricity and it would cost $150. With the extra $60 a month in the Xcel solar rewards i'm getting $20 a month in extra money.

Yes, i'm ignoring the $500 initial investment. In my opinion $500 for solar panels is pretty cool and worth it. Yes the Xcel rewards are only good for 10 years i think, so after year 10 (2029) who knows what will happen, but i make up my $500 investment by year 3, so as long as my electricity is offset and i'm close to $0 even for the next 8 years, it should be OK no problem.

Also, be a little careful of the financing terms, they act like HELOCs and have pretty high fees.... I got a loan through a bank for 55k non-collateralized but the rate is higher (7%), but no fees. I am paying it off in 2-3 months anyway from the sale of my other house.

Hmm... I'll have to ask more about this, because the loan is through "Sunlight Financial" and I just dug through the 32 page doc they had me sign yesterday, and I don't see anything about origination fees, etc. The only fees mentioned are like late fees, etc, which i don't anticipate acquiring.

Are there origination fees, etc. that should be called out somewhere?

This is definitely a YMMV, not all loans will have huge fees but the lender I was pushed to had nearly $2,000 in fees...

I would maybe ask if the fees are baked into the array, and if not, you are probably good. I would think any fees must be disclosed on the forms you mentioned.
Title: Re: Home Solar Array? How much? Worth it?
Post by: Mgmny on September 24, 2019, 07:52:08 AM
Hey TheAnon!

I had my solar quote from All Energy Solar in Minnesota over the weekend.

My house will likely support an 8.5 kW system from Xcel energy.

What i was told: $29k install, 30% federal credit $8700, and 10 years of $700 per year from Xcel for their solar rewards $7000, so the total is 29-8.7-7 =  $13,300 for the system. On a 15 year loan at 3.5% (i only put down $500), of the 29000 - 30% credit (so like 20-21k total) that is a payment of $150 a month. They estimated that I would produce $120 a month in electricity and it would cost $150. With the extra $60 a month in the Xcel solar rewards i'm getting $20 a month in extra money.

Yes, i'm ignoring the $500 initial investment. In my opinion $500 for solar panels is pretty cool and worth it. Yes the Xcel rewards are only good for 10 years i think, so after year 10 (2029) who knows what will happen, but i make up my $500 investment by year 3, so as long as my electricity is offset and i'm close to $0 even for the next 8 years, it should be OK no problem.

Also, be a little careful of the financing terms, they act like HELOCs and have pretty high fees.... I got a loan through a bank for 55k non-collateralized but the rate is higher (7%), but no fees. I am paying it off in 2-3 months anyway from the sale of my other house.

Hmm... I'll have to ask more about this, because the loan is through "Sunlight Financial" and I just dug through the 32 page doc they had me sign yesterday, and I don't see anything about origination fees, etc. The only fees mentioned are like late fees, etc, which i don't anticipate acquiring.

Are there origination fees, etc. that should be called out somewhere?

This is definitely a YMMV, not all loans will have huge fees but the lender I was pushed to had nearly $2,000 in fees...

I would maybe ask if the fees are baked into the array, and if not, you are probably good. I would think any fees must be disclosed on the forms you mentioned.

Gotcha, thank you! I reached out to my sales rep just to be certain.

What's your take on the 30% federal tax credit deadline? The company said they typically complete work within 90 days of the Solar Rewards application being approved - so it's reasonable to expect it could be jan or feb of 2020 - or the credit is down to 26%. I asked the rep if we can fudge dates, and he said, "Well, some people will submit based on contract and / or invoice date, but i'm not saying that is necessarily legal or allowed."

Any thoughts? Is yours for sure making it up before end of 2019?
Title: Re: Home Solar Array? How much? Worth it?
Post by: TheAnonOne on September 24, 2019, 08:58:33 AM
Hey TheAnon!

I had my solar quote from All Energy Solar in Minnesota over the weekend.

My house will likely support an 8.5 kW system from Xcel energy.

What i was told: $29k install, 30% federal credit $8700, and 10 years of $700 per year from Xcel for their solar rewards $7000, so the total is 29-8.7-7 =  $13,300 for the system. On a 15 year loan at 3.5% (i only put down $500), of the 29000 - 30% credit (so like 20-21k total) that is a payment of $150 a month. They estimated that I would produce $120 a month in electricity and it would cost $150. With the extra $60 a month in the Xcel solar rewards i'm getting $20 a month in extra money.

Yes, i'm ignoring the $500 initial investment. In my opinion $500 for solar panels is pretty cool and worth it. Yes the Xcel rewards are only good for 10 years i think, so after year 10 (2029) who knows what will happen, but i make up my $500 investment by year 3, so as long as my electricity is offset and i'm close to $0 even for the next 8 years, it should be OK no problem.

Also, be a little careful of the financing terms, they act like HELOCs and have pretty high fees.... I got a loan through a bank for 55k non-collateralized but the rate is higher (7%), but no fees. I am paying it off in 2-3 months anyway from the sale of my other house.

Hmm... I'll have to ask more about this, because the loan is through "Sunlight Financial" and I just dug through the 32 page doc they had me sign yesterday, and I don't see anything about origination fees, etc. The only fees mentioned are like late fees, etc, which i don't anticipate acquiring.

Are there origination fees, etc. that should be called out somewhere?

This is definitely a YMMV, not all loans will have huge fees but the lender I was pushed to had nearly $2,000 in fees...

I would maybe ask if the fees are baked into the array, and if not, you are probably good. I would think any fees must be disclosed on the forms you mentioned.

Gotcha, thank you! I reached out to my sales rep just to be certain.

What's your take on the 30% federal tax credit deadline? The company said they typically complete work within 90 days of the Solar Rewards application being approved - so it's reasonable to expect it could be jan or feb of 2020 - or the credit is down to 26%. I asked the rep if we can fudge dates, and he said, "Well, some people will submit based on contract and / or invoice date, but i'm not saying that is necessarily legal or allowed."

Any thoughts? Is yours for sure making it up before end of 2019?

Mine will be installed in November but interconnected XYZ weeks after that. From my understanding you can go on installed date... but I guess I am not a tax expert so I don't know about using invoice dates.

I think you could argue it should go on when you PAID MONEY. Also, look up "SAFE HARBOR" for solar 2019. You can extend your 30% but you'll end up claiming some a year later.
Title: Re: Home Solar Array? How much? Worth it?
Post by: Cadman on September 24, 2019, 10:31:09 AM
I'm looking at instructions for form 5695 and it's not catching my eye, but I'm pretty sure you can only claim the credit if the system is online and producing by the end of the calendar year. To get the state credit for our PV system, I had to supply a utility bill demonstrating as such. Perhaps the fed wasn't as strict.
Title: Re: Home Solar Array? How much? Worth it?
Post by: TheAnonOne on September 25, 2019, 01:21:38 PM
UPDATE: The power company has said that I will break the 120% rule with my current setup due to the pitch of my house being pretty steep.

So the array has dropped down into the 14KW range and the cost fell $4,000. Presumably I will generate the same power as we thought the 15.6KW system would too!

I have questions out to verify this and confirm math.
Title: Re: Home Solar Array? How much? Worth it?
Post by: WhiteTrashCash on September 25, 2019, 03:16:45 PM
We've had a solar array on our house for five years now and it is one of the smartest purchases we have ever made. When the incentives are right (as they are in your case), you achieve both self-sufficiency and profit within a fairly short period of time. PLUS, you make the air cleaner. Everybody wins. Lurkers, if you have the means to get solar panels, I highly recommend it.
Title: Re: Home Solar Array? How much? Worth it?
Post by: jpdx on September 25, 2019, 11:36:30 PM
Before installing solar, you should tackle projects to improve your energy efficiency and any behavioral changes to lower your electricity consumption. A KWh saved through efficiency usually costs less than a KWh generated through solar. Your electric bill sounds high, about 2-3x higher than my family’s. Can you give us a breakdown of major appliances (elec. vs gas, etc) and the KWh you use in an average month?
Title: Re: Home Solar Array? How much? Worth it?
Post by: TheAnonOne on September 26, 2019, 08:02:58 AM
Before installing solar, you should tackle projects to improve your energy efficiency and any behavioral changes to lower your electricity consumption. A KWh saved through efficiency usually costs less than a KWh generated through solar. Your electric bill sounds high, about 2-3x higher than my family’s. Can you give us a breakdown of major appliances (elec. vs gas, etc) and the KWh you use in an average month?

My bill for AUG was $200 but that included some setup fees because it was the first month we owned the house. I think the real bill is closer to 180?. It was VERY hot that month and we ran the AC basically all month long.

I find $180/m acceptable for a 4k SQFT house with plenty of windows in August. It will be lower in spring and fall, gas will be high in winter.
Title: Re: Home Solar Array? How much? Worth it?
Post by: Cadman on October 01, 2019, 09:28:49 AM
UPDATE: The power company has said that I will break the 120% rule with my current setup due to the pitch of my house being pretty steep.

So the array has dropped down into the 14KW range and the cost fell $4,000. Presumably I will generate the same power as we thought the 15.6KW system would too!

I have questions out to verify this and confirm math.

If you haven't already, plug your data into https://pvwatts.nrel.gov/ (https://pvwatts.nrel.gov/) to get a feel for what's realistic.

Can you elaborate on the 120% rule? If it's the one I'm thinking of, I'm not sure how your roof pitch would have an effect.
Title: Re: Home Solar Array? How much? Worth it?
Post by: TheAnonOne on October 01, 2019, 10:30:46 AM
UPDATE: The power company has said that I will break the 120% rule with my current setup due to the pitch of my house being pretty steep.

So the array has dropped down into the 14KW range and the cost fell $4,000. Presumably I will generate the same power as we thought the 15.6KW system would too!

I have questions out to verify this and confirm math.

If you haven't already, plug your data into https://pvwatts.nrel.gov/ (https://pvwatts.nrel.gov/) to get a feel for what's realistic.

Can you elaborate on the 120% rule? If it's the one I'm thinking of, I'm not sure how your roof pitch would have an effect.

The 120% rule is that you cannot exceed an estimated system size of 120% of your last 12 months useage.

Use 10,000 KWh last year? You can build a system to generate an "Expected" 12,000KWh. This is somewhat of a guessing game, and up to the utility to approve or deny. If they approve, they pay you the "solar rewards" 7c / KWh generated even if you go over 120%


I got the following results from the calculator. Total generated was 18,500 to 19,500 kWh/Year depending on the "angle" I put the panels at (south vs east vs south east ect).

Given that my use-age was 1250 KW/h in AUG, 12 times that is 15,000kwh (though this is very over inflated, AC isn't ran 6 months out of year afterall yearly is probably closer to 12,000 or less? Just guessing.)

I should vastly overproduce with this system. Basically because of the limited usage, they go off of sq-ft instead of 12 months usage, that table benefits me because the sq-ft makes it look like perhaps a larger family will live here, when it is just two people. This is all good news for me.

MontdSolar RadiationAC Energy( kWh )Value $
January2.671,036119
February3.621,237142
March4.791,785205
April5.701,945223
May6.072,064237
June6.482,101241
July6.772,190251
August6.142,000230
September5.111,657190
October3.621,280147
November2.861,044120
December2.1985798
Annual4.6719,196$ 2,203
Title: Re: Home Solar Array? How much? Worth it?
Post by: nereo on October 01, 2019, 02:42:20 PM
Who dictates that you can’t exceed 120% of your previous 12 months usage?  State? Power company? I’m unfamiliar with that rule
Title: Re: Home Solar Array? How much? Worth it?
Post by: chaskavitch on October 01, 2019, 02:48:51 PM
Who dictates that you can’t exceed 120% of your previous 12 months usage?  State? Power company? I’m unfamiliar with that rule

At least for us, that's the maximum theoretical production you can install if you want the power company to buy your electricity from you.  I'm sure you CAN install more, they just won't pay you for it.  I would assume it's at the power company's discretion, and not an actual rule.
Title: Re: Home Solar Array? How much? Worth it?
Post by: TheAnonOne on October 01, 2019, 04:38:13 PM
Who dictates that you can’t exceed 120% of your previous 12 months usage?  State? Power company? I’m unfamiliar with that rule

At least for us, that's the maximum theoretical production you can install if you want the power company to buy your electricity from you.  I'm sure you CAN install more, they just won't pay you for it.  I would assume it's at the power company's discretion, and not an actual rule.

To qualify for the Xcel solar rewards "7c" per kw/h program, you must follow this rule. Else, people would just fill fields with these things.

Keep in mind, you can sell power that you have in this program too. So you get paid 7c and then if you don't use the KW, you sell it for 12c effectively getting paid nearly 20c on power you sell and 7c on power you don't.
Title: Re: Home Solar Array? How much? Worth it?
Post by: nereo on October 01, 2019, 05:15:12 PM
Thanks for the info. Ours works differently - you get a 1:1 credit for any overproduction. While that eliminates any direct payment for overproducing, it doesn’t matter what your previous energy consumption was (good for us, as we plan on shifting the bulk of our heating from fossil fuel to electric heat pumps, and we will add a plug in to boot - all of which will increase our electrical). Our electricity is also a heck of a lot higher than 7¢/kw
Title: Re: Home Solar Array? How much? Worth it?
Post by: TheAnonOne on October 01, 2019, 05:27:57 PM
Thanks for the info. Ours works differently - you get a 1:1 credit for any overproduction. While that eliminates any direct payment for overproducing, it doesn’t matter what your previous energy consumption was (good for us, as we plan on shifting the bulk of our heating from fossil fuel to electric heat pumps, and we will add a plug in to boot - all of which will increase our electrical). Our electricity is also a heck of a lot higher than 7¢/kw

So we get the 1:1 credit as well "Net Metering" we just ALSO get 7c/KWh on top.
Title: Re: Home Solar Array? How much? Worth it?
Post by: nereo on October 01, 2019, 05:42:34 PM
Thanks for the info. Ours works differently - you get a 1:1 credit for any overproduction. While that eliminates any direct payment for overproducing, it doesn’t matter what your previous energy consumption was (good for us, as we plan on shifting the bulk of our heating from fossil fuel to electric heat pumps, and we will add a plug in to boot - all of which will increase our electrical). Our electricity is also a heck of a lot higher than 7¢/kw

So we get the 1:1 credit as well "Net Metering" we just ALSO get 7c/KWh on top.

I see. So when does excess power go to the 1:1 credit and when do you get 7¢ for selling it back to the grid?
Title: Re: Home Solar Array? How much? Worth it?
Post by: TheAnonOne on October 01, 2019, 05:48:13 PM
Thanks for the info. Ours works differently - you get a 1:1 credit for any overproduction. While that eliminates any direct payment for overproducing, it doesn’t matter what your previous energy consumption was (good for us, as we plan on shifting the bulk of our heating from fossil fuel to electric heat pumps, and we will add a plug in to boot - all of which will increase our electrical). Our electricity is also a heck of a lot higher than 7¢/kw

So we get the 1:1 credit as well "Net Metering" we just ALSO get 7c/KWh on top.

I see. So when does excess power go to the 1:1 credit and when do you get 7¢ for selling it back to the grid?

1. I get 7c per KW/h produced USED OR NOT (all 19,000 a year * 7c)
2. Any power I don't use I ALSO sell to the grid at 12c per KWh
Title: Re: Home Solar Array? How much? Worth it?
Post by: Cadman on October 02, 2019, 07:36:43 AM


Can you elaborate on the 120% rule? If it's the one I'm thinking of, I'm not sure how your roof pitch would have an effect.

The 120% rule is that you cannot exceed an estimated system size of 120% of your last 12 months useage.

Use 10,000 KWh last year? You can build a system to generate an "Expected" 12,000KWh. This is somewhat of a guessing game, and up to the utility to approve or deny. If they approve, they pay you the "solar rewards" 7c / KWh generated even if you go over 120%


Thanks! The 120% rule I was thinking of has to do with the combined breaker ratings of your main breaker and PV breaker not exceeding 120% of busbar ampacity. A little different : )

System sizing is funny as the relationship between the inverter and panels is interdependent. One might have more panels than their inverter can handle in the name of saturation for improved efficiency. One might also have 10kw worth of panels with a 5kw inverter. Split 5kw worth towards the east and west and the remainder to the south. The PoCo will never see more than 5kw instantaneously, but you'll be generating for more hours in the day than a straight southern array.

I realize that's not practical for everyone, especially with a roof mount installation, I just wasn't sure how the sizing rule might consider such cases.
Title: Re: Home Solar Array? How much? Worth it?
Post by: BlueHouse on October 03, 2019, 10:01:46 AM
Before installing solar, you should tackle projects to improve your energy efficiency and any behavioral changes to lower your electricity consumption. A KWh saved through efficiency usually costs less than a KWh generated through solar. Your electric bill sounds high, about 2-3x higher than my family’s. Can you give us a breakdown of major appliances (elec. vs gas, etc) and the KWh you use in an average month?
I can't argue with the logic of what you've said, but in my case, I started to get extremely competitive with myself only after I saw the net-metering effect and the possibility of driving my cost to $0/month.  the difference between $80/month and $95/month just didn't motivate me.  But the difference between an energy bill of $20/month vs. $0 or even credits toward next month made me willing to do things I never thought I would. 

So yes, do what you can to reduce, but know that you might be even more motivated after seeing the impact of net-metering. 

And good luck!
Title: Re: Home Solar Array? How much? Worth it?
Post by: TheAnonOne on October 03, 2019, 03:43:54 PM
Before installing solar, you should tackle projects to improve your energy efficiency and any behavioral changes to lower your electricity consumption. A KWh saved through efficiency usually costs less than a KWh generated through solar. Your electric bill sounds high, about 2-3x higher than my family’s. Can you give us a breakdown of major appliances (elec. vs gas, etc) and the KWh you use in an average month?
I can't argue with the logic of what you've said, but in my case, I started to get extremely competitive with myself only after I saw the net-metering effect and the possibility of driving my cost to $0/month.  the difference between $80/month and $95/month just didn't motivate me.  But the difference between an energy bill of $20/month vs. $0 or even credits toward next month made me willing to do things I never thought I would. 

So yes, do what you can to reduce, but know that you might be even more motivated after seeing the impact of net-metering. 

And good luck!

With the timeline for the credits going down in 2020, the time is NOW to install this thing, efficient or not, my bills will drop ~$200~ a month (probably negative usage with this) no matter what I do. LED bulbs and energy loss surveys next year sometime.
Title: Re: Home Solar Array? How much? Worth it?
Post by: Christof on October 03, 2019, 04:10:19 PM
your latitude is not that big an issue; the world leader in PVs is Germany, and they are much further north than MN

I‘m from Germany. Latitude is an issue. Hamburg is at the same latitude as Edmonton, Canada. Solar panels are not producing any significant amount of energy here from November to February.

The reason PV is popular has to do with the way our renewable energy program had been structured. Unfortunately it also had the side effect of increasing coal burning for producing electricity which has led to an increase in green house gases over all. It would have been better to focus on wind turbines and power to gas installations, as those produce more reliable energy in autumn and winter here.
Title: Re: Home Solar Array? How much? Worth it?
Post by: TheAnonOne on October 04, 2019, 11:19:56 AM
your latitude is not that big an issue; the world leader in PVs is Germany, and they are much further north than MN

I‘m from Germany. Latitude is an issue. Hamburg is at the same latitude as Edmonton, Canada. Solar panels are not producing any significant amount of energy here from November to February.

The reason PV is popular has to do with the way our renewable energy program had been structured. Unfortunately it also had the side effect of increasing coal burning for producing electricity which has led to an increase in green house gases over all. It would have been better to focus on wind turbines and power to gas installations, as those produce more reliable energy in autumn and winter here.

I am thinking in the northern mid-west that estimates for Jan/Feb are optimistic, simply because we can get weeks worth of snow storms basically back to back. Even if there is sun, there may be weeks at a time where the snow never gets a chance to melt.
Title: Re: Home Solar Array? How much? Worth it?
Post by: BlueHouse on October 05, 2019, 08:05:08 AM
your latitude is not that big an issue; the world leader in PVs is Germany, and they are much further north than MN

I‘m from Germany. Latitude is an issue. Hamburg is at the same latitude as Edmonton, Canada. Solar panels are not producing any significant amount of energy here from November to February.

The reason PV is popular has to do with the way our renewable energy program had been structured. Unfortunately it also had the side effect of increasing coal burning for producing electricity which has led to an increase in green house gases over all. It would have been better to focus on wind turbines and power to gas installations, as those produce more reliable energy in autumn and winter here.

I am thinking in the northern mid-west that estimates for Jan/Feb are optimistic, simply because we can get weeks worth of snow storms basically back to back. Even if there is sun, there may be weeks at a time where the snow never gets a chance to melt.

I live in DC and my solar panels are installed flat due to the roof,   My solar installer told me that because of the non-angle, the panels would underproduce in the winter and "overproduce" in the summer. 
It wasn't until I almost repeated this to someone else that I thought...huh?  oh man...smack my head!    They do great in the summer, so at least there's that. 
Title: Re: Home Solar Array? How much? Worth it?
Post by: Mgmny on October 09, 2019, 09:05:09 AM
AnonOne

Xcel Energy approved me for 29 panels instead of the original 22 I was estimating off. HOWEVER, the cost went from $29,000 for 22 panels (8.5 system) to $39,000 for 29 panels (11.1 system).

I balked at the 35% system increase cost when the panels and production are only going up 32%, and I have to imagine many of the costs are static (new meter, inverter, wiring, admin costs, engineering), but my sales rep said, "I double checked, but that is the new cost." What? How can that be? How can adding 7 panels increase my cost by $10,000??

Any idea???
Title: Re: Home Solar Array? How much? Worth it?
Post by: Lucky Penny Acres on October 09, 2019, 01:43:38 PM
The increase could have caused you to need a larger inverter, larger gauge wiring throughout to handle the increased production, or other changes.  There could be additional engineering to mount the extra panels - maybe 22 is on a simple setup in rows and 29 requires a different setup or uses multiple levels of your roof.

Also - is that price factoring in tax credits or incentives that max out? Maybe you get a state credit for 25% off but capped at a max of $5,000 (which was the credit for NY state a couple years ago at least) so for the 22 panel setup a larger portion of the total price is the tax credit and you get no further credit by going to a larger system as the credit is maxed out so the price increases faster.

Another possibility is that 22 can be installed in a set number of days of worker time and moving to 29 panels adds an extra day of installation so labor is a lot higher as they have to drive to your site an additional day.

Hopefully they can give you 2 detailed estimates that show exactly which parts are increasing by moving from 22 to 29 and not just give the totals.
Title: Re: Home Solar Array? How much? Worth it?
Post by: TheAnonOne on October 09, 2019, 02:17:41 PM
AnonOne

Xcel Energy approved me for 29 panels instead of the original 22 I was estimating off. HOWEVER, the cost went from $29,000 for 22 panels (8.5 system) to $39,000 for 29 panels (11.1 system).

I balked at the 35% system increase cost when the panels and production are only going up 32%, and I have to imagine many of the costs are static (new meter, inverter, wiring, admin costs, engineering), but my sales rep said, "I double checked, but that is the new cost." What? How can that be? How can adding 7 panels increase my cost by $10,000??

Any idea???


When my system was in flux going from 13KW to 16KW to 14.4KW I always had the agreement with the solar company to keep the COST PER WATT the same. I am at $3.10, so going with a larger system or smaller was basically identical as far as ROI.

I would ask that your COST PER WATT gets fixed. Remember, there are other installers....
Title: Re: Home Solar Array? How much? Worth it?
Post by: TheAnonOne on October 09, 2019, 02:20:12 PM
The increase could have caused you to need a larger inverter, larger gauge wiring throughout to handle the increased production, or other changes.  There could be additional engineering to mount the extra panels - maybe 22 is on a simple setup in rows and 29 requires a different setup or uses multiple levels of your roof.

Also - is that price factoring in tax credits or incentives that max out? Maybe you get a state credit for 25% off but capped at a max of $5,000 (which was the credit for NY state a couple years ago at least) so for the 22 panel setup a larger portion of the total price is the tax credit and you get no further credit by going to a larger system as the credit is maxed out so the price increases faster.

Another possibility is that 22 can be installed in a set number of days of worker time and moving to 29 panels adds an extra day of installation so labor is a lot higher as they have to drive to your site an additional day.

Hopefully they can give you 2 detailed estimates that show exactly which parts are increasing by moving from 22 to 29 and not just give the totals.

In MN here the size is irrelevant as far as credits, other than you can't go OVER the maximum of 120% of your use-age.

That being said, Mgmny really needs to focus on keeping the COST PER WATT the same, it should be around $3 per watt, going too much over that starts to seem like a ripoff. (Mine is $3.10, but smaller systems can be a bit more)

If anything, realistically, the larger system should have a LOWER cost per watt.
Title: Re: Home Solar Array? How much? Worth it?
Post by: TheAnonOne on January 10, 2020, 12:13:50 PM
Update: The array got installed in time. It won't be officially 'on' until later in the month.

February will be the first real bill with the thing, but Feb is probably the worst month for solar. Very excited to see this thing in action over the summer!
Title: Re: Home Solar Array? How much? Worth it?
Post by: Mgmny on January 10, 2020, 01:32:34 PM
Mine is still in "fighting" mode.

All Energy Solar sort of dicked me over hard on the 2019 thing. I'm still waiting for an INSTALL DATE. It's crazy.

hypothetically speaking, my project was complete in 2019 and I plan to file as such. Unless there aren't panels on my roof the day i file, then i won't. I'm just annoyed at this process. It's been unreal.
Title: Re: Home Solar Array? How much? Worth it?
Post by: TheAnonOne on January 10, 2020, 01:34:30 PM
Mine is still in "fighting" mode.

All Energy Solar sort of dicked me over hard on the 2019 thing. I'm still waiting for an INSTALL DATE. It's crazy.

hypothetically speaking, my project was complete in 2019 and I plan to file as such. Unless there aren't panels on my roof the day i file, then i won't. I'm just annoyed at this process. It's been unreal.

I kinda have to give some breathing room to the companies here. I imagine they got SWARMED at the end of 2019 to catch the tax break.

In my eyes it isn't even the 30% vs 26% it's the fact that, if they missed it, I would have to wait some 14 MONTHS to see that rebate. Too long.
Title: Re: Home Solar Array? How much? Worth it?
Post by: Mgmny on January 10, 2020, 01:48:06 PM
Mine is still in "fighting" mode.

All Energy Solar sort of dicked me over hard on the 2019 thing. I'm still waiting for an INSTALL DATE. It's crazy.

hypothetically speaking, my project was complete in 2019 and I plan to file as such. Unless there aren't panels on my roof the day i file, then i won't. I'm just annoyed at this process. It's been unreal.

I kinda have to give some breathing room to the companies here. I imagine they got SWARMED at the end of 2019 to catch the tax break.

In my eyes it isn't even the 30% vs 26% it's the fact that, if they missed it, I would have to wait some 14 MONTHS to see that rebate. Too long.

Yeah, and i'm doing a solar loan, so i would be paying interest on the additional cost for 14 months, which is dumb.
Title: Re: Home Solar Array? How much? Worth it?
Post by: JLee on January 10, 2020, 02:06:15 PM
Mine is still in "fighting" mode.

All Energy Solar sort of dicked me over hard on the 2019 thing. I'm still waiting for an INSTALL DATE. It's crazy.

hypothetically speaking, my project was complete in 2019 and I plan to file as such. Unless there aren't panels on my roof the day i file, then i won't. I'm just annoyed at this process. It's been unreal.

I kinda have to give some breathing room to the companies here. I imagine they got SWARMED at the end of 2019 to catch the tax break.

In my eyes it isn't even the 30% vs 26% it's the fact that, if they missed it, I would have to wait some 14 MONTHS to see that rebate. Too long.

Yeah, and i'm doing a solar loan, so i would be paying interest on the additional cost for 14 months, which is dumb.

Have you looked into other companies with other financing options?  My solar loan provides 0% / no payments for the amount of the tax credit, which is due in Jun 2020.  If I don't pay that portion in full, it gets rolled into the rest of the loan (without penalty) for 10 years @ 3.99%. In the meantime, I pay payments on the remaining 70%.
Title: Re: Home Solar Array? How much? Worth it?
Post by: nereo on January 10, 2020, 02:18:58 PM
Mine is still in "fighting" mode.

All Energy Solar sort of dicked me over hard on the 2019 thing. I'm still waiting for an INSTALL DATE. It's crazy.

hypothetically speaking, my project was complete in 2019 and I plan to file as such. Unless there aren't panels on my roof the day i file, then i won't. I'm just annoyed at this process. It's been unreal.

I kinda have to give some breathing room to the companies here. I imagine they got SWARMED at the end of 2019 to catch the tax break.

In my eyes it isn't even the 30% vs 26% it's the fact that, if they missed it, I would have to wait some 14 MONTHS to see that rebate. Too long.

Our state got hit with a “perfect storm” of the sun setting of the solar credit with the reinstatement of net metering and ultra-low unemployment. Consequentially it is a four month wait for our install, which is pretty standard in this area. Thankfully the should be up towards late March, just as the days really start getting longer
Title: Re: Home Solar Array? How much? Worth it?
Post by: Mgmny on January 13, 2020, 08:24:50 AM
Mine is still in "fighting" mode.

All Energy Solar sort of dicked me over hard on the 2019 thing. I'm still waiting for an INSTALL DATE. It's crazy.

hypothetically speaking, my project was complete in 2019 and I plan to file as such. Unless there aren't panels on my roof the day i file, then i won't. I'm just annoyed at this process. It's been unreal.

I kinda have to give some breathing room to the companies here. I imagine they got SWARMED at the end of 2019 to catch the tax break.

In my eyes it isn't even the 30% vs 26% it's the fact that, if they missed it, I would have to wait some 14 MONTHS to see that rebate. Too long.

Yeah, and i'm doing a solar loan, so i would be paying interest on the additional cost for 14 months, which is dumb.

Have you looked into other companies with other financing options?  My solar loan provides 0% / no payments for the amount of the tax credit, which is due in Jun 2020.  If I don't pay that portion in full, it gets rolled into the rest of the loan (without penalty) for 10 years @ 3.99%. In the meantime, I pay payments on the remaining 70%.

2 thoughts:

1. Are you sure about your loan? I was presented by the solar installer that this would be the case: "As long as you apply your tax credit within 18 months of initiation of the loan, your payment won't change - the initial payments are structured so that it assumes yuou will give the 30%, and then adjust accordingly! It's lower than it should be because of the pending tax credit! It's great!

So I looked into the fine print and the amortization schedule and that was WRONG and MISLEADING! I was still paying the interest on the amount of the tax credit, but they were making me pay as though I wasn't, so every month that i didn't apply the credit, the loan accrued more interest than it should have (to a tune of like $325 a year). I thought this, because i said, "Hey! I've got 18 months to apply the credit, and i'm not being charged! I'll just take the 30% credit, put it in the market, and then apply it to the loan at month 18! Yahtzee!" However, after vetting this approach, it was clear the salesperson was misleading me on how it worked. I called him on it, and he was like, "Oh.. hmm, yeah that's another way to look at it. Honestly, if you have any questions, you need to talk to the solar loan company directly - i'm not great at the math."

2. I already gave the solar company $500 deposit, so i woudl be out $500 if i shop around.
Title: Re: Home Solar Array? How much? Worth it?
Post by: Fishindude on January 13, 2020, 08:40:11 AM
I would never advise putting solar panels on your roof.   Ground mount them on a rack system in the yard.

All of those anchor points from the solar panels are "holes in the roof" and potential sources of leaks.   Also, at some point you will need to re-roof and it will be much more difficult and costly as the solar panels will have to be removed and reinstalled.
Title: Re: Home Solar Array? How much? Worth it?
Post by: TheAnonOne on January 13, 2020, 08:46:57 AM
I would never advise putting solar panels on your roof.   Ground mount them on a rack system in the yard.

All of those anchor points from the solar panels are "holes in the roof" and potential sources of leaks.   Also, at some point you will need to re-roof and it will be much more difficult and costly as the solar panels will have to be removed and reinstalled.

If I had an open field available, I may have gone that way :)
Title: Re: Home Solar Array? How much? Worth it?
Post by: nereo on January 13, 2020, 09:04:27 AM
I would never advise putting solar panels on your roof.   Ground mount them on a rack system in the yard.

All of those anchor points from the solar panels are "holes in the roof" and potential sources of leaks.   Also, at some point you will need to re-roof and it will be much more difficult and costly as the solar panels will have to be removed and reinstalled.
Here are some counter points...
1) Irradiance is much higher on our roof than in our yard (yes, we measured)
2) shingling a roof puts thousands of nail holes in your roof. Mounting panels on a standing seam roof doesn’t add any
3) PVs increase the longevity of  the shingles
4) I don’t want to sacrifice my limited yard real estate with PVs.
5) getting power from my yard to my home would involve digging up my driveway and laying cable. Not cheap or easy
6) round here field mounted PVs occasionally go missing (stolen). I’ve yet to read about any roof mounted systems suffering a similar fate.

Your points are good ones to consider @Fishindude - but certainly not enough to say “never” roof mount panels.
Title: Re: Home Solar Array? How much? Worth it?
Post by: Jon Bon on January 13, 2020, 11:39:28 AM
Sounds like I am late to the party since OP already got his panels installed. However the point I wanted to make when calculating these payback times is:

NET PRESENT VALUE PEOPLE!

If you buy a $20,000 system and save $1000 a year you most definitely do not have a 20 year payback. You spend that 20k today, and its worth 20k. How much is that last $1000 savings payment worth in year 20? At a 4% rate it is worth $456 today.

So in my above example of a $20,000 cost today followed by $1000 savings every year takes about 41 years to break even.

Don't get me wrong I think solar panels are awesome and would like some on my house.  But when installed by one of those fancy companies you can never justify the cost*. We all need to be honest with ourselves, many of these companies are just capitalizing on bad math and good intentions.

*Simple dollars and cents, environment impacts not included in calculations.

Title: Re: Home Solar Array? How much? Worth it?
Post by: JLee on January 13, 2020, 11:53:14 AM
Mine is still in "fighting" mode.

All Energy Solar sort of dicked me over hard on the 2019 thing. I'm still waiting for an INSTALL DATE. It's crazy.

hypothetically speaking, my project was complete in 2019 and I plan to file as such. Unless there aren't panels on my roof the day i file, then i won't. I'm just annoyed at this process. It's been unreal.

I kinda have to give some breathing room to the companies here. I imagine they got SWARMED at the end of 2019 to catch the tax break.

In my eyes it isn't even the 30% vs 26% it's the fact that, if they missed it, I would have to wait some 14 MONTHS to see that rebate. Too long.

Yeah, and i'm doing a solar loan, so i would be paying interest on the additional cost for 14 months, which is dumb.

Have you looked into other companies with other financing options?  My solar loan provides 0% / no payments for the amount of the tax credit, which is due in Jun 2020.  If I don't pay that portion in full, it gets rolled into the rest of the loan (without penalty) for 10 years @ 3.99%. In the meantime, I pay payments on the remaining 70%.

2 thoughts:

1. Are you sure about your loan? I was presented by the solar installer that this would be the case: "As long as you apply your tax credit within 18 months of initiation of the loan, your payment won't change - the initial payments are structured so that it assumes yuou will give the 30%, and then adjust accordingly! It's lower than it should be because of the pending tax credit! It's great!

So I looked into the fine print and the amortization schedule and that was WRONG and MISLEADING! I was still paying the interest on the amount of the tax credit, but they were making me pay as though I wasn't, so every month that i didn't apply the credit, the loan accrued more interest than it should have (to a tune of like $325 a year). I thought this, because i said, "Hey! I've got 18 months to apply the credit, and i'm not being charged! I'll just take the 30% credit, put it in the market, and then apply it to the loan at month 18! Yahtzee!" However, after vetting this approach, it was clear the salesperson was misleading me on how it worked. I called him on it, and he was like, "Oh.. hmm, yeah that's another way to look at it. Honestly, if you have any questions, you need to talk to the solar loan company directly - i'm not great at the math."

2. I already gave the solar company $500 deposit, so i woudl be out $500 if i shop around.

No payments no interest on mine.  Are you sure your deposit isn't refundable?
Title: Re: Home Solar Array? How much? Worth it?
Post by: JLee on January 13, 2020, 11:54:42 AM
Sounds like I am late to the party since OP already got his panels installed. However the point I wanted to make when calculating these payback times is:

NET PRESENT VALUE PEOPLE!

If you buy a $20,000 system and save $1000 a year you most definitely do not have a 20 year payback. You spend that 20k today, and its worth 20k. How much is that last $1000 savings payment worth in year 20? At a 4% rate it is worth $456 today.

So in my above example of a $20,000 cost today followed by $1000 savings every year takes about 41 years to break even.

Don't get me wrong I think solar panels are awesome and would like some on my house.  But when installed by one of those fancy companies you can never justify the cost*. We all need to be honest with ourselves, many of these companies are just capitalizing on bad math and good intentions.

*Simple dollars and cents, environment impacts not included in calculations.

You're assuming the cost of power doesn't change for the next 20 years?
Title: Re: Home Solar Array? How much? Worth it?
Post by: nereo on January 13, 2020, 12:33:51 PM
Sounds like I am late to the party since OP already got his panels installed. However the point I wanted to make when calculating these payback times is:

NET PRESENT VALUE PEOPLE!

If you buy a $20,000 system and save $1000 a year you most definitely do not have a 20 year payback. You spend that 20k today, and its worth 20k. How much is that last $1000 savings payment worth in year 20? At a 4% rate it is worth $456 today.

So in my above example of a $20,000 cost today followed by $1000 savings every year takes about 41 years to break even.

Don't get me wrong I think solar panels are awesome and would like some on my house.  But when installed by one of those fancy companies you can never justify the cost*. We all need to be honest with ourselves, many of these companies are just capitalizing on bad math and good intentions.

*Simple dollars and cents, environment impacts not included in calculations.

You're assuming the cost of power doesn't change for the next 20 years?

My thoughts as well.  Additionally, I haven't seen a 20 year payback on any system installed in the last decade.   8-10 is more common, and less if your state has favorable buyback and tax incentives. 
Absolutely - one should calculate the real cost and payback periods, and opportunity costs.  But realistic time periods matter too.
Title: Re: Home Solar Array? How much? Worth it?
Post by: Jon Bon on January 13, 2020, 12:36:31 PM
Sure there are all kinds of assumptions in there.

Cost of power does not change
Production of panels remain the same
Roof/panels never need replaced
And many more

The list goes on. Just saying that we need to be honest with ourselves about pricing out these systems. But my point is the same: a 20k system that saves you $1000 a year is not a good investment.

Title: Re: Home Solar Array? How much? Worth it?
Post by: JLee on January 13, 2020, 12:43:49 PM
Sounds like I am late to the party since OP already got his panels installed. However the point I wanted to make when calculating these payback times is:

NET PRESENT VALUE PEOPLE!

If you buy a $20,000 system and save $1000 a year you most definitely do not have a 20 year payback. You spend that 20k today, and its worth 20k. How much is that last $1000 savings payment worth in year 20? At a 4% rate it is worth $456 today.

So in my above example of a $20,000 cost today followed by $1000 savings every year takes about 41 years to break even.

Don't get me wrong I think solar panels are awesome and would like some on my house.  But when installed by one of those fancy companies you can never justify the cost*. We all need to be honest with ourselves, many of these companies are just capitalizing on bad math and good intentions.

*Simple dollars and cents, environment impacts not included in calculations.

You're assuming the cost of power doesn't change for the next 20 years?

My thoughts as well.  Additionally, I haven't seen a 20 year payback on any system installed in the last decade.   8-10 is more common, and less if your state has favorable buyback and tax incentives. 
Absolutely - one should calculate the real cost and payback periods, and opportunity costs.  But realistic time periods matter too.

Yeah, mine is about a six year payback with state incentives continuing to pay until the 10 year mark.
Title: Re: Home Solar Array? How much? Worth it?
Post by: nereo on January 13, 2020, 12:47:42 PM

The list goes on. Just saying that we need to be honest with ourselves about pricing out these systems. But my point is the same: a 20k system that saves you $1000 a year is not a good investment.
Compared to what??
Currently 10y treasury notes are paying 1.83%.  Even if we make all these assumptions and calculate out a 20 year 'payback' that's akin to a 3.8% return, and one that is constant, year-over-year (albeit by reducing expenses, not by providing a return).  In short - it's one of the better very-low-risk investments out there right now.

Many of us carry bonds in our portfolio, or spend considerable effort to minimize expenses far below the median.

Right now, with our current bond market and decades of low inflation, a "20y return with little/no downside" is a compelling investment indeed.  That's part of the reason why so many businesses have taken cash on hand to buy PV arrays - they simply can't find better returns with lower risk.
Title: Re: Home Solar Array? How much? Worth it?
Post by: Jon Bon on January 13, 2020, 03:00:21 PM
I don't know, inflation usually runs 3% +-.  I dont need to tell you what the S&P has done the past 10 years.

Also if you buy those T-bills you do zero work and get 1.8% return.

Solar panels are going to require some sort of work or upkeep, so maybe even calling them an investment in the first place is even a stretch.

Oh and those t-bills at the end of 20 years you get all that interest AND your principal back.

After 20 years (ok maybe 30) Probably are going to be nearing the end of their useful life, and your roof most likely will be. And you sure as heck are not selling them back for your initial 20k. So the principal on these is most likely lost, or severely deprecated.

As stated before I like the idea, but for me (and I believe most others) unless you DIY the install they don't make a ton of sense. Granted all my statements are reflecting where I live power is pretty cheap, so if your rates are higher (or get more sun) you might be much better off.

Just thinking out loud here kind of like buying a Tesla to 'save on gas' sure you will most definitely save on gas, but its still a 100k outlay, and at the end of its useful life the car is nearly worthless.



Title: Re: Home Solar Array? How much? Worth it?
Post by: JLee on January 13, 2020, 03:11:31 PM
I don't know, inflation usually runs 3% +-.  I dont need to tell you what the S&P has done the past 10 years.

Also if you buy those T-bills you do zero work and get 1.8% return.

Solar panels are going to require some sort of work or upkeep, so maybe even calling them an investment in the first place is even a stretch.

My entire system, panels/inverters/etc has a 25 year output, parts, and labor warranty. What "work or upkeep" are you referring to?

Oh and those t-bills at the end of 20 years you get all that interest AND your principal back.

After 20 years (ok maybe 30) Probably are going to be nearing the end of their useful life, and your roof most likely will be. And you sure as heck are not selling them back for your initial 20k. So the principal on these is most likely lost, or severely deprecated.

See above; 25 year in-warranty period

As stated before I like the idea, but for me (and I believe most others) unless you DIY the install they don't make a ton of sense. Granted all my statements are reflecting where I live power is pretty cheap, so if your rates are higher (or get more sun) you might be much better off.

My power is 30% more expensive than the national average and my state has solar incentives to the point where you can finance a system for 10 years and be cash positive on day one. After 10 years, the state incentives end, the loan is paid off, and you now have a "free" solar system with 15 years of warranty and output remaining.

Just thinking out loud here kind of like buying a Tesla to 'save on gas' sure you will most definitely save on gas, but its still a 100k outlay, and at the end of its useful life the car is nearly worthless.

Even a Model 3 Performance is less than $60k, the dual motor long range is less than $50k, and the SR+ is less than $40k. You need to go S/X Performance to get to $100k. They also depreciate vastly slower than you may expect -- a 2yo Model 3 dual motor long range with ~35k miles on it is $4k cheaper than a brand new one. Also, I don't think anybody is buying Teslas specifically "to save on gas." It helps the math, but if the goal is the ultimate in cost savings, a cheap hybrid is likely the best route.

See bolded.
Title: Re: Home Solar Array? How much? Worth it?
Post by: nereo on January 13, 2020, 03:30:10 PM
I don't know, inflation usually runs 3% +-.  I dont need to tell you what the S&P has done the past 10 years.

Also if you buy those T-bills you do zero work and get 1.8% return.

Solar panels are going to require some sort of work or upkeep, so maybe even calling them an investment in the first place is even a stretch.

Oh and those t-bills at the end of 20 years you get all that interest AND your principal back.

After 20 years (ok maybe 30) Probably are going to be nearing the end of their useful life, and your roof most likely will be. And you sure as heck are not selling them back for your initial 20k. So the principal on these is most likely lost, or severely deprecated.

As stated before I like the idea, but for me (and I believe most others) unless you DIY the install they don't make a ton of sense. Granted all my statements are reflecting where I live power is pretty cheap, so if your rates are higher (or get more sun) you might be much better off.

Just thinking out loud here kind of like buying a Tesla to 'save on gas' sure you will most definitely save on gas, but its still a 100k outlay, and at the end of its useful life the car is nearly worthless.

Title: Re: Home Solar Array? How much? Worth it?
Post by: Jon Bon on January 14, 2020, 06:24:41 AM
Maybe I was not clear, my numbers are made up. But the concept of discounted cash flows is legitimate. When you get into 5+ year timelines the power of discounting really starts to matter. So I was just pointing out that people should not be counting the final years of the project payoff to be worth the same amount that they are today.

As for the finer points of the discussion panels/rates/etc sure we could discuss those, but I'm pretty sure you guys have a better knowledge of the situation than I do.

I would be extremely surprised if someone can have zero maintenance on something that sits out in the elements for 25 years. I think we all realize that warranties are only as good as the company that backs it up. Hey maybe let me know in 20 years!

I'm really much more interested in the real world performance and payback of a system from real people. I feel like so much of the information out there is put out by installers and manufactures, so I am highly suspicious of their predictions.



Title: Re: Home Solar Array? How much? Worth it?
Post by: nereo on January 14, 2020, 07:15:08 AM
Maybe I was not clear, my numbers are made up. But the concept of discounted cash flows is legitimate. When you get into 5+ year timelines the power of discounting really starts to matter. So I was just pointing out that people should not be counting the final years of the project payoff to be worth the same amount that they are today.

As for the finer points of the discussion panels/rates/etc sure we could discuss those, but I'm pretty sure you guys have a better knowledge of the situation than I do.

I would be extremely surprised if someone can have zero maintenance on something that sits out in the elements for 25 years. I think we all realize that warranties are only as good as the company that backs it up. Hey maybe let me know in 20 years!

I'm really much more interested in the real world performance and payback of a system from real people. I feel like so much of the information out there is put out by installers and manufactures, so I am highly suspicious of their predictions.

Yes, we understood that your numbers were made up.  But for a constructive conversation it’s important that numbers be at least plausible.  Twenty years isn’t, for modern installs on a decent site. Claiming - without evidence - that PVs are only financially viable if one DIYs is equally dishonest

As for real world performance and payback from actual people - hey, you’ve come tot he right place!  Sol had an excellent multi-year thread on his panels Complete with upfront cost, tax and utility-paybacks, solar output etc, as did Ericka.  THere’s even lots of chatting about ‘delivery’ fees and what that does to payback.  Snoyk made an off-grid PV array for his working space, including his “manually-adjustable PV trackers”.  Or you could read all about my journey with PVs!  No BS and all sorts of extraneous information you don’t get from your typical glossy advertising pamphlet, good and bad.

Yes, the company matters when it comes to warranties - which is a key reason why we went with the most well known company in our region, also a coop and a certified B-corp with an excellent, multi-decade track record.  The equipment you install also matters a great deal with reliability, and **where/how** it is installed.  The panels themselves rarely fail except when by direct impact (e.g. tree branches during storms).  Microinverters increase panel efficiency when there are uneven shading issues, but are expensive and prone to failure (and one of the reasons we opted for optimizers (pun intended) rather than microinverters on our setup).  Solar trackers are similarly problematic (again, why we went with a fixed mount - the increase in captured irradiance wasn’t worth the cost or hassle, particularly given our roof pitch).

Is the process of having contractors put up PVs as low-impact as buying a bond index fund?  Clearly no - though the life disruption and time invested was fairly minimal.  But are the ‘returns’ (here: reduced energy costs and utility credits/paybacks) more than I would receive from VBMFX?  Absolutely - in fact they are more than double, with minimal risk. 

Your point that the end of the project payoff should be discounted would be a good one if electricity prices stay flat or if inflation increases faster than electricity rates.  For several decades the opposite has been true, at least in our region. Given our aging infrastructure and how much of the distribution and transmission lines are privately owned my opinion is that this trend will continue, if not accelerate.  TIme of course will tell.
Title: Re: Home Solar Array? How much? Worth it?
Post by: Cadman on January 14, 2020, 10:04:12 AM
I hate to be that guy, but there is legitimate maintenance you should be doing if you have a PV array.

Here in the midwest, we're pulling snow off with telescopic brooms right now. The racking manufacturer recommends an annual tightening of the hex screws that secure them to the ground posts as thermal cycling can loosen them over time. The electrical wiring should be checked twice a year for environmental and animal damage. And if you don't have a mechanism (like a daily email report) for knowing if an errant inverter fault occurs, you can miss out on days or weeks of production. This happens at least once a year depending on severity of local thunderstorms.

Hard work? No. But a little more attention required compared to investing in a T-Bill.
Title: Re: Home Solar Array? How much? Worth it?
Post by: nereo on January 14, 2020, 10:37:17 AM
I hate to be that guy, but there is legitimate maintenance you should be doing if you have a PV array.

Here in the midwest, we're pulling snow off with telescopic brooms right now. The racking manufacturer recommends an annual tightening of the hex screws that secure them to the ground posts as thermal cycling can loosen them over time. The electrical wiring should be checked twice a year for environmental and animal damage. And if you don't have a mechanism (like a daily email report) for knowing if an errant inverter fault occurs, you can miss out on days or weeks of production. This happens at least once a year depending on severity of local thunderstorms.

Hard work? No. But a little more attention required compared to investing in a T-Bill.
You are correct that PVs are more work than simply buying a bond fund - and my earlier posts said as much.  But the time investment is pretty minimal - certainly less than, say, RE with a property management company.

Re: snow and raking the panels - I had an interesting discussion with our installer about this.  Their recommendations now are specifically NOT to remove now now, for two reasons basic reasons - i) the snow tends to self-clear within a day or so of the sun coming I back out and ii) power generation on overcast winter days is a small fraction of overall production. THer’s also he chance that someone might whack a panel a little too hard with a 25’ snow rake.

 My POC fort he install came from a science background like me and he decided to rake half his panels and record the differences in terms of time-spent and energy gained... IIRC he got something like $3 in extra energy savings last winter for what amounted to a collective hour+ of work (5-10 minutes each snowstorm). 

::shrug::  My broader point is that we spent considerable time calculating the various costs (incl. opportunity costs) and for us the panels were a sound economical decision with a decent & constant ROI, low (but certainly not zero) effort and very little risk (i.e. volatility). They certainly won’t beat a good decade of market gains but are certainly better than a bad decade, with minimal volatility.
Title: Re: Home Solar Array? How much? Worth it?
Post by: Cadman on January 14, 2020, 11:59:49 AM
Must depend on location...If we don't clear the snow, it may take days before they'll self-clear as the ice layer underneath makes a pretty good bond, but it can't melt because the snow layer is a great insulator. Being ground mount it only takes a few minutes.

Some of our highest generating PV days are actually during the winter since the efficiency is so much higher when temps are below 0F. Of course you need the sun, too.

$3 per winter? You sure he didn't mean per day? That's about what we average, so if even a single panel in a series string is covered, our output is sub 1kW.
Title: Re: Home Solar Array? How much? Worth it?
Post by: nereo on January 14, 2020, 12:14:42 PM
Must depend on location...If we don't clear the snow, it may take days before they'll self-clear as the ice layer underneath makes a pretty good bond, but it can't melt because the snow layer is a great insulator. Being ground mount it only takes a few minutes.

Some of our highest generating PV days are actually during the winter since the efficiency is so much higher when temps are below 0F. Of course you need the sun, too.

$3 per winter? You sure he didn't mean per day? That's about what we average, so if even a single panel in a series string is covered, our output is sub 1kW.

Ah, good catch.  Per storm, not per winter.  Half the array is 2.6kw; we get roughly 6-7 hours of productive sunlight in winter, so 16-18kw lost per day.  At 14¢/kw hour that’s just under $3 for clearing vs not clearing After a snowstorm.  Worth the 10 minutes? Shrug.  If you are out already and have the tools.  IME they clear on their own pretty quick, and since we are running a net surplus and we only get credits (not $ back) there’s little incentive to squeeze out a few dozen more kw from the system.

We haven’t really had a problem with ice, but I hear that concern more from people in the Midwest.  Too cold here in general for ice?
Title: Re: Home Solar Array? How much? Worth it?
Post by: Mgmny on January 15, 2020, 12:11:07 PM
So, I don't have a good understanding of all the investment/return math, but from my perspective, it can't be a bad investment.

I put $500 down on my panels and took out a loan for the rest.

Their conservative estimate says I will produce $207 worth of electicity, net metering, and credits/rewards monthly. My loan cost is about $200 monthly.

This means that according to their conservative estimate, I am getting $7 a month "extra" on my initiatial $500 investment.

7*12 =  $84

$84 / 500 = 17%.

So, from my perspective, I will have a 17% annual return on my initial $500 investment.

Why is my math / understanding wrong?
Title: Re: Home Solar Array? How much? Worth it?
Post by: nereo on January 15, 2020, 12:33:05 PM
My only questions about your calculations is whether that estimated $207 is the average monthly production or whether that’s a high-water mark (which is typically in late spring in the northern hemisphere). 

Just guesstimating here... $207/month in electricity generated suggest you have a rather large system - 12-14kw? That’s how large a system I’d need to generate the ~17,700 kilowatts annually to average $207/mo. What are your electricity rates?

Again spitballing here... but a $20k, 10y solar loan at 3.75% would is in line with your $200 payment, so that seems plausible.
Title: Re: Home Solar Array? How much? Worth it?
Post by: Mgmny on January 15, 2020, 01:23:27 PM
My only questions about your calculations is whether that estimated $207 is the average monthly production or whether that’s a high-water mark (which is typically in late spring in the northern hemisphere). 

Just guesstimating here... $207/month in electricity generated suggest you have a rather large system - 12-14kw? That’s how large a system I’d need to generate the ~17,700 kilowatts annually to average $207/mo. What are your electricity rates?

Again spitballing here... but a $20k, 10y solar loan at 3.75% would is in line with your $200 payment, so that seems plausible.

Ok I just went back to the sales doc they gave me, and it looks like i was quoting from the 22 panel system, but i'm getting the 24 panel system:

System is 24, 385W panels, so 9.24kW.

Solar rewards in my state is $0.07 /kWh
Current electric rate of $0.13 / kWh

Here are some assumptions:
Annual Acccess to Sun: 90%
System degradation rate: 0.7%
orientation(degrees): 155
Tilt (degrees): 22.5

My "calculated" annual usage (because i just moved into this brand new house in August, so no full year of data yet) is 8,252 kWh
My calculated solar production: 11,664

Price of system: $31,542
26% credit (sigh, not 30%): $8,201
down payment: $500
Loan: $22,841

15 year loan
Monthly payment: $170
Monthly electric "savings": $125
Monthly Rewards "rebate": $68
Positive: $23 a month

They gave me a graphic that shows the difference - it looks like i'll make the most money in march and april, actually, so let's get these panels up!!

Title: Re: Home Solar Array? How much? Worth it?
Post by: Mgmny on January 15, 2020, 01:26:33 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/5kO0Els.png)
Title: Re: Home Solar Array? How much? Worth it?
Post by: TheAnonOne on January 15, 2020, 01:30:46 PM
I actually have 400w panels on my roof now, might want to ask about those.

36 of them. Pretty big.
Title: Re: Home Solar Array? How much? Worth it?
Post by: Mgmny on January 15, 2020, 02:00:23 PM
I actually have 400w panels on my roof now, might want to ask about those.

36 of them. Pretty big.

I did ask a few months ago, and they said that the 385 were "more economical." This is why i am annoyed by this process. If you remember in an earlier post, my cost per watt went UP as i asked for more panels, for some unknown reason.
Title: Re: Home Solar Array? How much? Worth it?
Post by: nereo on January 15, 2020, 02:10:15 PM
Sounds pretty good @Mgmny - and plausible.  With a 90% site you’re looking at a 1.26x multiple, which is pretty decent.  We are at 1.19 with ours.  Sounds like your utilities offer a reasonable rebate as well - something I wish ours did.

One thing that will take your investment even further is to get your energy usage down.  8.8kw is pretty high, but I know nothing about your house size or family needs.  Air sealing gives you the biggest bang for your buck - literally a few cans of spray foam and a couple tubes of caulk can cut your energy usage by a few percent. Then insulation (attic first, then basement & rim joists). Toss any incandescent bulbs for LEDs - the ROI is less than a year.  Cut your energy consumption to under 7kw and your rebate could be closer to $500/year. 
Title: Re: Home Solar Array? How much? Worth it?
Post by: Mgmny on January 15, 2020, 02:29:31 PM
Sounds pretty good @Mgmny - and plausible.  With a 90% site you’re looking at a 1.26x multiple, which is pretty decent.  We are at 1.19 with ours.  Sounds like your utilities offer a reasonable rebate as well - something I wish ours did.

One thing that will take your investment even further is to get your energy usage down.  8.8kw is pretty high, but I know nothing about your house size or family needs.  Air sealing gives you the biggest bang for your buck - literally a few cans of spray foam and a couple tubes of caulk can cut your energy usage by a few percent. Then insulation (attic first, then basement & rim joists). Toss any incandescent bulbs for LEDs - the ROI is less than a year.  Cut your energy consumption to under 7kw and your rebate could be closer to $500/year.

Thanks Nereo! We can probably work on consuming less, but our house should be up to really good insulation standards as it was just built in 2019. 2x6 walls with R20 insulation. R49 attic. House Wrap, Spray foam rim insulation. Sealed interior vapor and air barrier.

One thing (and not to hijack the thread), but because of all the air and vapor barrier, we are instructed to run our air exchanger 24/7. This seems counter-productive... What do the people here think? I've read conflicting things online...
Title: Re: Home Solar Array? How much? Worth it?
Post by: TheAnonOne on January 15, 2020, 04:08:44 PM
I actually have 400w panels on my roof now, might want to ask about those.

36 of them. Pretty big.

I did ask a few months ago, and they said that the 385 were "more economical." This is why i am annoyed by this process. If you remember in an earlier post, my cost per watt went UP as i asked for more panels, for some unknown reason.

Ah, as we were adjusting my array larger and and then smaller, we kept the $/w the same at all changes.

In reality this was kinda dumb, when it is larger the $/w needs to go down, not even stay =. Though, the rush to hit 2019 was probably worth avoiding the argument.

14.4kw was as large as Xcel would allow, and we maxed it.
Title: Re: Home Solar Array? How much? Worth it?
Post by: nereo on January 15, 2020, 04:11:30 PM
It all depends on what your air exchange rate is.  If your home is very tight (say < 0.7 ACH50) it’s a good idea to run an air exchanger frequently, if not continually.  If it’s between 0.7-1 the general guidelines say periodically a few times per day.

The nice thing about air exchangers is it brings air in on your terms - filtered and with most of the heat recovered and the humidity kept within a very narrow range.  Modern ones are extremely efficient.
Title: Re: Home Solar Array? How much? Worth it?
Post by: Mgmny on January 15, 2020, 07:07:05 PM
I actually have 400w panels on my roof now, might want to ask about those.

36 of them. Pretty big.

I did ask a few months ago, and they said that the 385 were "more economical." This is why i am annoyed by this process. If you remember in an earlier post, my cost per watt went UP as i asked for more panels, for some unknown reason.

Ah, as we were adjusting my array larger and and then smaller, we kept the $/w the same at all changes.

In reality this was kinda dumb, when it is larger the $/w needs to go down, not even stay =. Though, the rush to hit 2019 was probably worth avoiding the argument.

14.4kw was as large as Xcel would allow, and we maxed it.

Yeah, at this point I'm sure the ship has sailed because permit with the city has the permits and Xcel has approved everything.
Title: Re: Home Solar Array? How much? Worth it?
Post by: BlueHouse on January 17, 2020, 07:51:25 AM
My numbers:
4.96 kw PV Solar System.  Installation Complete on 12/17/2018

Total PV Solar System Price:  $24,800
   Less credit for SRECs:        $17,560  (I traded the company the Energy credits in exchange for the material & install of the system)
                                          ----------
                                           $ 7,240  (I paid this amount)

30% credit on Federal return  $7,440  (I received this amount back on taxes 4 months later)
                                          -----------
                                                -200  (yes, they paid me to install, permit, coordinate net-metering, etc)


Apparently there are now 8 states with Solar carve-outs and solar credits (you get paid money for the amount of energy that you produce each year -- on top of your energy savings).  Many people in DC keep their SRECs and trade them on the market for about $400/SREC per year.  I opted to just not have any money out of pocket (except for 4 months).  so with zero investment on the solar panels, I don't see how I could have gone wrong. 
 


Title: Re: Home Solar Array? How much? Worth it?
Post by: nereo on January 17, 2020, 08:05:35 AM
that's amazing @BlueHouse  Wish my state was as progressive with PV installs, but we are just recovering from a very anti-renewable, anti-environment government.  Just glad we have net metering now :-)
Title: Re: Home Solar Array? How much? Worth it?
Post by: BlueHouse on January 17, 2020, 11:29:38 AM
that's amazing @BlueHouse  Wish my state was as progressive with PV installs, but we are just recovering from a very anti-renewable, anti-environment government.  Just glad we have net metering now :-)

Yes, it really makes people act faster when there is an incentive.  I wish every state offered Energy Credits. 
Title: Re: Home Solar Array? How much? Worth it?
Post by: JLee on January 17, 2020, 11:52:27 AM
that's amazing @BlueHouse  Wish my state was as progressive with PV installs, but we are just recovering from a very anti-renewable, anti-environment government.  Just glad we have net metering now :-)

Yes, it really makes people act faster when there is an incentive.  I wish every state offered Energy Credits.

SRECs are what makes the math work for me in NJ -- I'm looking at ~$3k/year there with a 10yr window (SREC value will change over time but I'm guaranteed 10 years).
Title: Re: Home Solar Array? How much? Worth it?
Post by: Mgmny on January 31, 2020, 11:55:35 AM
Reporting in:

TENTATIVE install date of Feb 17th. Dependent on weather (which this time of year in MN is tricky).

There is snow on my roof, so i don't really know if they would go up there or not (even though it isn't/haven't snowed in a week). My guess is that they would not, but if that's the case (and if everyone has snow on their roof), then my install date will be pushed out significantly, I'm sure.
Title: Re: Home Solar Array? How much? Worth it?
Post by: Mgmny on February 25, 2020, 01:54:34 PM
AnonOne!

How are your panels producing? Mine just went "online" yesterday when Xcel Energy left! I haven't had access to any monitoring software yet, but i'm excited to soon! I tried decrypting the two meters to see what my usage vs production was, but i couldn't figure it out.

Let me know how yours is doing!
Title: Re: Home Solar Array? How much? Worth it?
Post by: nereo on February 25, 2020, 02:12:38 PM
AnonOne!

How are your panels producing? Mine just went "online" yesterday when Xcel Energy left! I haven't had access to any monitoring software yet, but i'm excited to soon! I tried decrypting the two meters to see what my usage vs production was, but i couldn't figure it out.

Let me know how yours is doing!

Congrats on going online!
Ours should be going up on our new place in about 3 weeks.
Title: Re: Home Solar Array? How much? Worth it?
Post by: Mgmny on February 26, 2020, 09:05:16 AM
My panels are rated for 385W. Is this normal? I just got access to the monitoring software like 30 minutes ago, so I don't know what I'm doing, but some of my panels are performing close to 600W (according to the online dashboard). Is that typical? Rated for 385 but give me 600? Seems unlikely and crazy...

(https://i.ibb.co/2yyrW60/Annotation-2020-02-26-100319.png)
Title: Re: Home Solar Array? How much? Worth it?
Post by: nereo on February 26, 2020, 09:22:45 AM
My panels are rated for 385W. Is this normal? I just got access to the monitoring software like 30 minutes ago, so I don't know what I'm doing, but some of my panels are performing close to 600W (according to the online dashboard). Is that typical? Rated for 385 but give me 600? Seems unlikely and crazy...


385w is the nameplate output of your panels - what they will do under some very narrow testing conditions (e.g. temperature, irradiance, resistance).  385W is the middle of the range of newly manufactured PVs - you can pay (a lot) more for 400w or now even 425w panels — but, if you have the space it’s cheaper to just add a few more panels than go from 385w to 425w nameplate PVs

It’s also common for panels to produce more than their nameplate ratings under very good conditions (temperatures < 70ºF, bright sunny day).  585w on a 385w panel does seem suspiciously high to me... but it’s possible?  I’d check with the installer and read your white papers on panel performance.  It’s possible that they’ve optimized newer designs so they can take advantage of optimal conditions more. 

In my previous home we had older 270w panels, but it wasn’t uncommon for them to output 350wats on cold clear days.  Contrary to my expectations, sometimes partly cloudy days briefly produced the highest output, as the edges of clouds could act as a ‘lens’ focusing light, and the clouds kept the panels cooler.