I ran your numbers with the 40k spend (I really like playing around with cFiresim).
Here's what I found:
As your numbers are currently (if I understand them right, that is!) you will have a 73% success rate, and average starting portfolio (in 2027) of $719,178.
However, your cash allocation is currently very high, as are your investment fees.
If you can change your allocation to 70% equities, 25% bonds, and 5% cash (still fairly conservative) you have a success rate of 85.39%, and a starting portfolio of $764,830.
If you do that and also lower your MER for your investments to .1% (which is still on the high side for this forum), you will have a 95.51% success rate, and a portfolio of $799,218 in 2027.
Food for thought.
I had no idea how to input information into the simulation.
Re: allocations - what I had in there is what I have right now, at this moment. I don't plan to keep it that way, but don't know if there is away to have simulation adjust it over period of time. I assume not.
Re: investment fees - that was a typo. I meant to input 0.06, not 0.6, which is ridiculously high. I have 90% of my investments in VTSAX, VTI, and BND, except for current employer 401K which has fees of 0.55. I'll be rolling that into Vanguard as soon as I'm out of here (looking for new job).
I reran simulation again changing things. Since it doesn't take into account income and seems to be only concerned with savings. I did the following:
$67K savings in 2018 - one time deposit.
$27K savings (401K/IRA/HSA) annually from 2017 to 2026 - when younger kid graduates college
$6K savings additional savings (cash) from 2017 to 2020 - when older one starts college.
Social Security of $14,400 ($1200/mo) starting at age 62 (year 2037).
Stop working (i.e. saving) at age 52 (year 2027)
Also changed allocation and fees and ending at my age of 90 instead of 100. Someone suggested above that period that is too long does not pick up all periods on simulation.
So this gives me 100% success rate.
Changing retirement spending to $45K/yr give me 89% success rate.
I think I entered things correctly now.
Also, my numbers are very conservative. For example, based on SS site, my benefit at 62 will be $1620/mo, not $1400 that I'm using here.
The child support I'm receiving I only counted until younger kid graduates high school. In reality, my ex is supposed to be paying child support until they both graduate college, so 4 more years.
I don't really know if I will stop working completely at age 52, or keep working full or part time and keep adding to savings or just be covering my living expenses.
I may receive a significant inheritance some day (or I may not).
I may move to cheaper areas (Asia, Latin America) for part of the year, or slow travel, which should cost less than $40K/yr.
What I think all of this is telling me is that in the long run I will be ok even if I have to work a little longer. I will not die homeless or in my cubicle. And I shouldn't be a burden to my children.
Considering where I was financially only 2 years ago (deep dark hole of despair and hopelessness), this makes me very very happy.