No one lost anything in 2008 except folks that over-leveraged themselves or those that panicked and sold when the market was down. Anyone who whethered the storm, (stayed put, and kept making payments) lost nothing, Most home values were back to pre-2008 levels by 2011, certainly 99.99% by 2012.
Housing has gone up in value at least an average of 10% per year over ANY 10 year period since the great depression. It is more reliable than any other investment, including VTSAX.
I just saw this post on the Bogleheads forum and thought I'd share with those using alternative facts...
Thru this forum my wife and I have finally come to our senses to sell a condo that was a residence turned rental. Was purchased for 320k in 2007 and is probably worth 220k now.
So after 10 YEARS, their condo is still worth $100K less than what they originally paid for it.
researcher, with your screen name I'd expect you to know that one anecdote/data point does not disprove a statement about averages. Also, you didn't include the location of the poster selling the condo, which would be pertinent to the discussion (specifically, of whether the OP's family's housing costs/choices are unreasonable).
Personally, I find that davef's figures do look optimistic (what if you picked a period ending during the recession?) but I don't have the time or desire to hunt down those numbers right now. However, I do think your argument, as you're making it, amounts to "never buy houses because they might go down in value and then you'd lose money." But you don't just buy a house as an investment, you buy a house to live in, and if you don't buy a house, you're losing money every month paying rent, indefinitely. The details of that rent-vs-buy tradeoff vary on the numbers in the area, and also personal priorities, and risk tolerance(/debt aversion), which we can't properly account for in an equation.
If it makes you feel better, let's not call it "saving" let's call it "debt repayment". This family has already bought this condo and have every intention of staying in it. They already took out the mortgage so they are on the hook for that 424k regardless of what the house value does. They chose the guaranteed 3.6% return on ~$1k of their money by choosing the shorter mortgage (actually slightly more since they got a lower rate by committing to the 15 year) over the anticipated 7% gains in the stock market. You might have chosen differently and that's fine, too. If I may quote JRR Tolkien's much more eloquent phrasing: “Elves seldom give unguarded advice, for advice is a dangerous gift, even from the wise to the wise, and all courses may run ill.” Now can we stop talking about this?
(And by the by, ALL CAPS do not make you sound more authoritative in your statements of opinion, in fact quite the opposite. FWIW, instead of "You're WRONG" maybe you could try "I disagree" next time. Lends itself to much more civilized discussion.)