Author Topic: Are we headed towards a future where Mustachian cars are not available?  (Read 8345 times)

caracarn

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With Ford's announcement today that it will basically eliminate the sedan from their North American dealerships and switch to 90% pickups and SUVs, the question above came up.  GM has been cutting small cars out it's lineup as has Fiat.  So it begs the question, will the market be driven to a point in the near future that cars that at least make some sense to own all but disappear?  Will the small cars MMM drove during the start of his process go away completely due to lack of demand as people flock to larger and larger cars because they are not caring about the costs? 

I would hope that if that happens we have small electrics that fill the void, but are there just not enough of us who would be open to that to drive suppliers?  I have to read into the decisions being made that the demand just is not there for low cost fuel efficient vehicles in North America and this shift seems more permanent than what happened after Katrina and gas prices went up and drove people away from SUVs.  As expected, they came flocking back once they got comfortable with gas still being about twice as expensive as it was before that rise and it would seem car manufacturers have decided to change their entire portfolios because of it.  It is one thing to change your inventory mix, but when they make the decisions to just cease all production, that has a much longer time frame and cost to ramp up again, which means they have likely determined that they never will.  That is what I see as different.  Looking at it from the other side, when demand dropped for SUVs with the gas increase, no manufacturer did the same thing and said we are removing all SUVs from our portfolio, but they are making that call with sedans.

mm1970

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I guess this is why I own a Toyota and a Honda.  Both small.

Optimiser

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Fortunately we still have options like the Prius, Leaf, Fit, Yaris, etc, but I wish we had even smaller options like they have in Europe.

caracarn

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I guess this is why I own a Toyota and a Honda.  Both small.
Yes, but my question is how long before Toyota and Honda decide they they are not selling any small cars in the same market and pull out as well?  The question really should indicate "in the US" at the end of it.  This is not a global problem.  I would be curious if it is only American carmakers that are seeing lack of sales on sedans, because the explanation could be that if you buy a small car you buy a foreign make because the American models are so poorly made, and the American car makers will be the brands that the massive car wanting consumer will flock to.

caracarn

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Fortunately we still have options like the Prius, Leaf, Fit, Yaris, etc, but I wish we had even smaller options like they have in Europe.
I do think some of that demand is driven down by the fact that the reality if that against all the massive vehicles that are becoming the preference those tiny cars would be death traps.  My daughter love the Fiat 500, but one of the things I've warned her about is the plethora of giant SUV and pickup truck drivers around here who would not even see her and how safe that would be.  Those huge vehicles just do not fit on many European roads so they are not as popular and therefore that safety issue does not come into play.  Pure physics sadly shows us the reality of the mismatch we create between massive and teeny tiny and the amount of force created and able to be absorbed in those two extremes.

haflander

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I guess this is why I own a Toyota and a Honda.  Both small.
Yes, but my question is how long before Toyota and Honda decide they they are not selling any small cars in the same market and pull out as well?  The question really should indicate "in the US" at the end of it.  This is not a global problem.  I would be curious if it is only American carmakers that are seeing lack of sales on sedans, because the explanation could be that if you buy a small car you buy a foreign make because the American models are so poorly made, and the American car makers will be the brands that the massive car wanting consumer will flock to.

I don't know anything about the auto industry but my guess is that this will not happen for a long time, if ever. There are a ton of Toyota and Honda sedans on the road around the country. Believe it or not, there are many many times more of them than trucks in my apartment complex AND I live in Texas!! No one has mentioned this yet, but I suspect that the reason Ford/GM haven't done well in the sedan market is moreso because Toyota/Honda dominate those markets, even though a minor contributing reason is that people are buying more SUVs/trucks these days.

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Yeah, I think it makes total sense for Ford to concentrate their flailing business on the few things they do very well. IE: F150s and SUVs. Ford does very well in that market and has a healthy profit margin selling those vehicles. Why bother continuing to compete in a market sector where they have been routinely thrashed(small cars/sedans). I see plenty of smallish cars on the road, but 90% of them are Hondas, Nissans, Mazdas, etc...

Also, the idea that smaller cars are deathtraps is also misleading, considering Ford just had one of their SUVs get the lowest possible safety rating for passengers. Basically, in a head-on collision, the driver is protected by the structural design, but the passenger gets a facefull of dashboard and engine parts because they completely neglected that side of the vehicle(because prior to this year, passenger side was never tested).

Rather than suggesting your daughter drive an SUV, hoping she will survive the inevitable collision, perhaps defensive driving skills would be a better investment.

Slee_stack

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Fortunately we still have options like the Prius, Leaf, Fit, Yaris, etc, but I wish we had even smaller options like they have in Europe.
I do think some of that demand is driven down by the fact that the reality if that against all the massive vehicles that are becoming the preference those tiny cars would be death traps.  My daughter love the Fiat 500, but one of the things I've warned her about is the plethora of giant SUV and pickup truck drivers around here who would not even see her and how safe that would be.  Those huge vehicles just do not fit on many European roads so they are not as popular and therefore that safety issue does not come into play.  Pure physics sadly shows us the reality of the mismatch we create between massive and teeny tiny and the amount of force created and able to be absorbed in those two extremes.
Out of curiosity...what would impure physics cover?  Perhaps I'm just having dirty thoughts...

I don't worry much about different vehicle sizes during impact.  Is a small car a death trap?

I admit I do worry about any sized motor vehicle colliding with me on my bike (or me just walking for that matter).  In comparison, my bicycle is the super duper ultimate death trap.  I do what I can to minimize my situational risk.  I choose routes that I feel are safer (but honestly just more pleasant).  The rest is out of my hands.  I won't NOT ride, just because I could get hit by something larger.

I wouldn't suggest to anyone to buy a large vehicle just because......physics! 

I would suggest someone not drive it while drunk or texting/facebooking/tweeting on the phone.  How about just be attentive and drive defensively?  You'll probably do just fine.

caracarn

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Yeah, I think it makes total sense for Ford to concentrate their flailing business on the few things they do very well. IE: F150s and SUVs. Ford does very well in that market and has a healthy profit margin selling those vehicles. Why bother continuing to compete in a market sector where they have been routinely thrashed(small cars/sedans). I see plenty of smallish cars on the road, but 90% of them are Hondas, Nissans, Mazdas, etc...

Also, the idea that smaller cars are deathtraps is also misleading, considering Ford just had one of their SUVs get the lowest possible safety rating for passengers. Basically, in a head-on collision, the driver is protected by the structural design, but the passenger gets a facefull of dashboard and engine parts because they completely neglected that side of the vehicle(because prior to this year, passenger side was never tested).

Rather than suggesting your daughter drive an SUV, hoping she will survive the inevitable collision, perhaps defensive driving skills would be a better investment.
That's not was I was implying.  We've walked he through defensive driving and I'm not suggesting she not buy any given car because of the increased risk based on the reality that every car will be larger than hers.  I was just thinking it could be a factor in keeping these small European models from being offered in the US.

JLee

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A 1995 Toyota Camry gets 23-31mpg.  A 2018 Ford EcoSport 4x4 crossover gets 27-29mpg.  A 2018 RAV4 gets 30mpg highway.

Crossovers are not necessarily the gas-guzzling SUVs of yesteryear.

I guess this is why I own a Toyota and a Honda.  Both small.
Yes, but my question is how long before Toyota and Honda decide they they are not selling any small cars in the same market and pull out as well?  The question really should indicate "in the US" at the end of it.  This is not a global problem.  I would be curious if it is only American carmakers that are seeing lack of sales on sedans, because the explanation could be that if you buy a small car you buy a foreign make because the American models are so poorly made, and the American car makers will be the brands that the massive car wanting consumer will flock to.

The Civic, Camry, Corolla, and Accord are all among the top 10 selling vehicles in the USA. 

https://www.caranddriver.com/flipbook/the-best-selling-vehicles-of-2017-arent-all-trucks-and-suvs-just-most-of-them#17

Note there are zero Ford sedans on that list, yet they decimate the entire field with the F-series pickups (and have led sales for 41 consecutive years).  I don't blame them for doing what they do best.

zhelud

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Re: Are we headed towards a future where Mustachian cars are not available?
« Reply #10 on: April 26, 2018, 11:09:08 AM »
I think that once the makers of self-driving cars figure out the technology to the extent that these vehicles are considered to be safe enough for regular use, most people will just stop buying cars at all.Why buy your own car if you can just order a self-driving car when you need it, through an Uber-like platform?  I predict that the price of a ride will drop pretty far if there is no need for a human driver.
Some people will still buy their own cars, but not most people.
Just my prediction.


Telecaster

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Re: Are we headed towards a future where Mustachian cars are not available?
« Reply #11 on: April 26, 2018, 11:20:04 AM »
The price of gas will go up eventually, and all the manufacturers will be tripping over themselves  to offer smaller cars.  At least that's the way it worked the last four times this happened. 

Russ

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Re: Are we headed towards a future where Mustachian cars are not available?
« Reply #12 on: April 26, 2018, 11:24:35 AM »
Hot Take - there's no such thing as owning a Mustachian car

Dragonswan

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Re: Are we headed towards a future where Mustachian cars are not available?
« Reply #13 on: April 26, 2018, 11:46:21 AM »
I think that once the makers of self-driving cars figure out the technology to the extent that these vehicles are considered to be safe enough for regular use, most people will just stop buying cars at all.Why buy your own car if you can just order a self-driving car when you need it, through an Uber-like platform?  I predict that the price of a ride will drop pretty far if there is no need for a human driver.
Some people will still buy their own cars, but not most people.
Just my prediction.



I doubt it.  At least not in this country.  People like to possess things.  I mean why buy your own house and waste time and money on maintenance when you can rent an apartment and have everything done for you? The math doesn't always work better for owning. Houses don't always appreciate, etc. But not many people say they want to live in an apartment even if they currently do; they're just waiting until they qualify. Not exactly the same but speaks to the American mentality.

Some will adopt and many won't.  People want their own stuff.  They want to keep their stuff in their car for their convenience.  They don't want to be respectful of the fact that someone else will be getting in behind them, if they spill something or rip the seat, they don't care because they OWN it.  Muddy boots? No problem I'll clean it when I get to it not pay a fee for messing up the car or try to clean off my boots before I get in.  So I predict certain segments of society will love it (people taking mass transit, folks with suspended licenses, those with greater concern for the environment).  But folks like me that hate to drive will love the self driving car but I'm not sharing as long as I can afford not to.  Once it's electric my environmental footprint goes down enough for me to have a clear conscience. Especially if we have more solar power by then.  There is a thread about the future and self driving cars we can go to without further foaming up this one.

JLee

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Re: Are we headed towards a future where Mustachian cars are not available?
« Reply #14 on: April 26, 2018, 11:47:12 AM »
I think that once the makers of self-driving cars figure out the technology to the extent that these vehicles are considered to be safe enough for regular use, most people will just stop buying cars at all.Why buy your own car if you can just order a self-driving car when you need it, through an Uber-like platform?  I predict that the price of a ride will drop pretty far if there is no need for a human driver.
Some people will still buy their own cars, but not most people.
Just my prediction.



I doubt it.  At least not in this country.  People like to possess things.  I mean why buy your own house and waste time and money on maintenance when you can rent an apartment and have everything done for you? The math doesn't always work better for owning. Houses don't always appreciate, etc. But not many people say they want to live in an apartment even if they currently do; they're just waiting until they qualify. Not exactly the same but speaks to the American mentality.

Some will adopt and many won't.  People want their own stuff.  They want to keep their stuff in their car for their convenience.  They don't want to be respectful of the fact that someone else will be getting in behind them, if they spill something or rip the seat, they don't care because they OWN it.  Muddy boots? No problem I'll clean it when I get to it not pay a fee for messing up the car or try to clean off my boots before I get in.  So I predict certain segments of society will love it (people taking mass transit, folks with suspended licenses, those with greater concern for the environment).  But folks like me that hate to drive will love the self driving car but I'm not sharing as long as I can afford not to.  Once it's electric my environmental footprint goes down enough for me to have a clear conscience. Especially if we have more solar power by then.  There is a thread about the future and self driving cars we can go to without further foaming up this one.

I need a place to live almost all the time, though.  I need a car for about 20 minutes twice a day.

FreshPrincess

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Re: Are we headed towards a future where Mustachian cars are not available?
« Reply #15 on: April 26, 2018, 11:53:33 AM »
They're keeping the Focus.  There will likely always be options.


With Ford's announcement today that it will basically eliminate the sedan from their North American dealerships and switch to 90% pickups and SUVs, the question above came up.  GM has been cutting small cars out it's lineup as has Fiat.  So it begs the question, will the market be driven to a point in the near future that cars that at least make some sense to own all but disappear?  Will the small cars MMM drove during the start of his process go away completely due to lack of demand as people flock to larger and larger cars because they are not caring about the costs? 

I would hope that if that happens we have small electrics that fill the void, but are there just not enough of us who would be open to that to drive suppliers?  I have to read into the decisions being made that the demand just is not there for low cost fuel efficient vehicles in North America and this shift seems more permanent than what happened after Katrina and gas prices went up and drove people away from SUVs.  As expected, they came flocking back once they got comfortable with gas still being about twice as expensive as it was before that rise and it would seem car manufacturers have decided to change their entire portfolios because of it.  It is one thing to change your inventory mix, but when they make the decisions to just cease all production, that has a much longer time frame and cost to ramp up again, which means they have likely determined that they never will.  That is what I see as different.  Looking at it from the other side, when demand dropped for SUVs with the gas increase, no manufacturer did the same thing and said we are removing all SUVs from our portfolio, but they are making that call with sedans.

mm1970

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Re: Are we headed towards a future where Mustachian cars are not available?
« Reply #16 on: April 26, 2018, 12:26:18 PM »
I guess this is why I own a Toyota and a Honda.  Both small.
Yes, but my question is how long before Toyota and Honda decide they they are not selling any small cars in the same market and pull out as well?  The question really should indicate "in the US" at the end of it.  This is not a global problem.  I would be curious if it is only American carmakers that are seeing lack of sales on sedans, because the explanation could be that if you buy a small car you buy a foreign make because the American models are so poorly made, and the American car makers will be the brands that the massive car wanting consumer will flock to.

My own non-scientifically obtained opinion is...

I shop for cars that are cost efficient and will last a long time.  So, better gas mileage, reliable, longevity.
Hence the Honda and the Toyota.

I think most American sedans suck.  Many of my family members "only buy Ford" and such.

Soooo...I don't think you can judge the entirety of the American car market by Ford.  Because: people who buy Fords and people who buy reliable fuel efficient cars aren't the same population.

dashuk

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Re: Are we headed towards a future where Mustachian cars are not available?
« Reply #17 on: April 26, 2018, 12:30:59 PM »
Quote from: Dragonswan link=topic=91285.msg1986170#msg1986170
Once it's electric my environmental footprint goes down enough for me to have a clear conscience.

May I introduce your conscience to the concept of "embodied energy"?

Zikoris

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Re: Are we headed towards a future where Mustachian cars are not available?
« Reply #18 on: April 26, 2018, 12:48:40 PM »
You mean a future where bicycles don't exist? Nah.

NoStacheOhio

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Re: Are we headed towards a future where Mustachian cars are not available?
« Reply #19 on: April 26, 2018, 12:54:21 PM »
They're keeping the Focus.  There will likely always be options.

Except that will also be an SUV (CUV, whatever).

Dragonswan

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Re: Are we headed towards a future where Mustachian cars are not available?
« Reply #20 on: April 26, 2018, 01:20:30 PM »
Quote from: Dragonswan link=topic=91285.msg1986170#msg1986170
Once it's electric my environmental footprint goes down enough for me to have a clear conscience.

May I introduce your conscience to the concept of "embodied energy"?
I'm aware.  That's why I said my footprint would be reduced not eliminated.  I can live with some impact.

Dragonswan

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Re: Are we headed towards a future where Mustachian cars are not available?
« Reply #21 on: April 26, 2018, 01:24:30 PM »
I think that once the makers of self-driving cars figure out the technology to the extent that these vehicles are considered to be safe enough for regular use, most people will just stop buying cars at all.Why buy your own car if you can just order a self-driving car when you need it, through an Uber-like platform?  I predict that the price of a ride will drop pretty far if there is no need for a human driver.
Some people will still buy their own cars, but not most people.
Just my prediction.



I doubt it.  At least not in this country.  People like to possess things.  I mean why buy your own house and waste time and money on maintenance when you can rent an apartment and have everything done for you? The math doesn't always work better for owning. Houses don't always appreciate, etc. But not many people say they want to live in an apartment even if they currently do; they're just waiting until they qualify. Not exactly the same but speaks to the American mentality.

Some will adopt and many won't.  People want their own stuff.  They want to keep their stuff in their car for their convenience.  They don't want to be respectful of the fact that someone else will be getting in behind them, if they spill something or rip the seat, they don't care because they OWN it.  Muddy boots? No problem I'll clean it when I get to it not pay a fee for messing up the car or try to clean off my boots before I get in.  So I predict certain segments of society will love it (people taking mass transit, folks with suspended licenses, those with greater concern for the environment).  But folks like me that hate to drive will love the self driving car but I'm not sharing as long as I can afford not to.  Once it's electric my environmental footprint goes down enough for me to have a clear conscience. Especially if we have more solar power by then.  There is a thread about the future and self driving cars we can go to without further foaming up this one.

I need a place to live almost all the time, though.  I need a car for about 20 minutes twice a day.
Many people are in their cars a lot more than that.  Long commutes (which people might be encouraged to make longer if they can do something else during that time and have the convenience of not dealing with mass transit), shopping, sports and dance practice, salesmen, you name it.  Traffic congestion in large cities is all day strong; it's just ridiculously worse during typical commute times.

JLee

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Re: Are we headed towards a future where Mustachian cars are not available?
« Reply #22 on: April 26, 2018, 01:32:38 PM »
I think that once the makers of self-driving cars figure out the technology to the extent that these vehicles are considered to be safe enough for regular use, most people will just stop buying cars at all.Why buy your own car if you can just order a self-driving car when you need it, through an Uber-like platform?  I predict that the price of a ride will drop pretty far if there is no need for a human driver.
Some people will still buy their own cars, but not most people.
Just my prediction.



I doubt it.  At least not in this country.  People like to possess things.  I mean why buy your own house and waste time and money on maintenance when you can rent an apartment and have everything done for you? The math doesn't always work better for owning. Houses don't always appreciate, etc. But not many people say they want to live in an apartment even if they currently do; they're just waiting until they qualify. Not exactly the same but speaks to the American mentality.

Some will adopt and many won't.  People want their own stuff.  They want to keep their stuff in their car for their convenience.  They don't want to be respectful of the fact that someone else will be getting in behind them, if they spill something or rip the seat, they don't care because they OWN it.  Muddy boots? No problem I'll clean it when I get to it not pay a fee for messing up the car or try to clean off my boots before I get in.  So I predict certain segments of society will love it (people taking mass transit, folks with suspended licenses, those with greater concern for the environment).  But folks like me that hate to drive will love the self driving car but I'm not sharing as long as I can afford not to.  Once it's electric my environmental footprint goes down enough for me to have a clear conscience. Especially if we have more solar power by then.  There is a thread about the future and self driving cars we can go to without further foaming up this one.

I need a place to live almost all the time, though.  I need a car for about 20 minutes twice a day.
Many people are in their cars a lot more than that.  Long commutes (which people might be encouraged to make longer if they can do something else during that time and have the convenience of not dealing with mass transit), shopping, sports and dance practice, salesmen, you name it.  Traffic congestion in large cities is all day strong; it's just ridiculously worse during typical commute times.

That doesn't change the argument.  For the vast majority of people, when they're not in a car they don't need a car.  You do still need a home (and that doesn't change when you leave home), unless you live out of a backpack and sleep under a tree or something.

neo von retorch

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Re: Are we headed towards a future where Mustachian cars are not available?
« Reply #23 on: April 26, 2018, 01:33:54 PM »
Best selling small cars and sedans in the US in 2017?

10. Chevrolet Malibu
9. Hyundai Elantra
8. Chevrolet Cruze
7. Ford Fusion (23% annual decline from 2016!)
6. Nissan Sentra
5. Nissan Altima
4. Honda Accord
3. Toyota Corolla
2. Toyota Camry
1. Honda Civic

So if we remove the ONE car that's 7th on this list, do we suddenly no longer have sedans to buy?

(Personally I think sedans are a worthless configuration. Why oh why would you not just get the hatchback/wagon version?!)

Trying2bFrugal

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Re: Are we headed towards a future where Mustachian cars are not available?
« Reply #24 on: April 26, 2018, 01:35:57 PM »
Its sad that these companies are just taking away the small car business.

Yeah, I do own Prius, with lot of honda/toyota on friends houses. But the american cars are the reasons why Japanese had to push higher standard on anything except engine.
With them being out on small cars, then we would get true frugality cars (not the owners, now the car itself will come frugal).

JLee

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Re: Are we headed towards a future where Mustachian cars are not available?
« Reply #25 on: April 26, 2018, 01:42:36 PM »
Its sad that these companies are just taking away the small car business.

Yeah, I do own Prius, with lot of honda/toyota on friends houses. But the american cars are the reasons why Japanese had to push higher standard on anything except engine.
With them being out on small cars, then we would get true frugality cars (not the owners, now the car itself will come frugal).

They're not taking away the small car business. Toyota, Honda, Nissan, etc will all continue to make cars.

Dragonswan

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Re: Are we headed towards a future where Mustachian cars are not available?
« Reply #26 on: April 26, 2018, 02:32:48 PM »
I think that once the makers of self-driving cars figure out the technology to the extent that these vehicles are considered to be safe enough for regular use, most people will just stop buying cars at all.Why buy your own car if you can just order a self-driving car when you need it, through an Uber-like platform?  I predict that the price of a ride will drop pretty far if there is no need for a human driver.
Some people will still buy their own cars, but not most people.
Just my prediction.



I doubt it.  At least not in this country.  People like to possess things.  I mean why buy your own house and waste time and money on maintenance when you can rent an apartment and have everything done for you? The math doesn't always work better for owning. Houses don't always appreciate, etc. But not many people say they want to live in an apartment even if they currently do; they're just waiting until they qualify. Not exactly the same but speaks to the American mentality.

Some will adopt and many won't.  People want their own stuff.  They want to keep their stuff in their car for their convenience.  They don't want to be respectful of the fact that someone else will be getting in behind them, if they spill something or rip the seat, they don't care because they OWN it.  Muddy boots? No problem I'll clean it when I get to it not pay a fee for messing up the car or try to clean off my boots before I get in.  So I predict certain segments of society will love it (people taking mass transit, folks with suspended licenses, those with greater concern for the environment).  But folks like me that hate to drive will love the self driving car but I'm not sharing as long as I can afford not to.  Once it's electric my environmental footprint goes down enough for me to have a clear conscience. Especially if we have more solar power by then.  There is a thread about the future and self driving cars we can go to without further foaming up this one.

I need a place to live almost all the time, though.  I need a car for about 20 minutes twice a day.
Many people are in their cars a lot more than that.  Long commutes (which people might be encouraged to make longer if they can do something else during that time and have the convenience of not dealing with mass transit), shopping, sports and dance practice, salesmen, you name it.  Traffic congestion in large cities is all day strong; it's just ridiculously worse during typical commute times.

That doesn't change the argument.  For the vast majority of people, when they're not in a car they don't need a car.  You do still need a home (and that doesn't change when you leave home), unless you live out of a backpack and sleep under a tree or something.
It doesn't change the argument for you, but you're missing the point.  The American mentality isn't about only having what we need.  It's about having what we WANT and we'll justify it by any means necessary.  A mustachian thinks only buy what I need as inexpensively as possible.  Most everyone else thinks how can I get what I want without killing anyone and how cushy and convenient can I make my life.  Because the hockey gear lives in the back of the SUV and I'm not lugging it in and out of the car every time I need it.  The car seat stays too and I don't care if I have to pay for the thing over 7 years and burn down a forest.  I want what I WANT!  Make predictions based on the psyche of the group whose behavior you are making the prediction about.

JLee

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Re: Are we headed towards a future where Mustachian cars are not available?
« Reply #27 on: April 26, 2018, 02:40:15 PM »
I think that once the makers of self-driving cars figure out the technology to the extent that these vehicles are considered to be safe enough for regular use, most people will just stop buying cars at all.Why buy your own car if you can just order a self-driving car when you need it, through an Uber-like platform?  I predict that the price of a ride will drop pretty far if there is no need for a human driver.
Some people will still buy their own cars, but not most people.
Just my prediction.



I doubt it.  At least not in this country.  People like to possess things.  I mean why buy your own house and waste time and money on maintenance when you can rent an apartment and have everything done for you? The math doesn't always work better for owning. Houses don't always appreciate, etc. But not many people say they want to live in an apartment even if they currently do; they're just waiting until they qualify. Not exactly the same but speaks to the American mentality.

Some will adopt and many won't.  People want their own stuff.  They want to keep their stuff in their car for their convenience.  They don't want to be respectful of the fact that someone else will be getting in behind them, if they spill something or rip the seat, they don't care because they OWN it.  Muddy boots? No problem I'll clean it when I get to it not pay a fee for messing up the car or try to clean off my boots before I get in.  So I predict certain segments of society will love it (people taking mass transit, folks with suspended licenses, those with greater concern for the environment).  But folks like me that hate to drive will love the self driving car but I'm not sharing as long as I can afford not to.  Once it's electric my environmental footprint goes down enough for me to have a clear conscience. Especially if we have more solar power by then.  There is a thread about the future and self driving cars we can go to without further foaming up this one.

I need a place to live almost all the time, though.  I need a car for about 20 minutes twice a day.
Many people are in their cars a lot more than that.  Long commutes (which people might be encouraged to make longer if they can do something else during that time and have the convenience of not dealing with mass transit), shopping, sports and dance practice, salesmen, you name it.  Traffic congestion in large cities is all day strong; it's just ridiculously worse during typical commute times.

That doesn't change the argument.  For the vast majority of people, when they're not in a car they don't need a car.  You do still need a home (and that doesn't change when you leave home), unless you live out of a backpack and sleep under a tree or something.
It doesn't change the argument for you, but you're missing the point.  The American mentality isn't about only having what we need.  It's about having what we WANT and we'll justify it by any means necessary.  A mustachian thinks only buy what I need as inexpensively as possible.  Most everyone else thinks how can I get what I want without killing anyone and how cushy and convenient can I make my life.  Because the hockey gear lives in the back of the SUV and I'm not lugging it in and out of the car every time I need it.  The car seat stays too and I don't care if I have to pay for the thing over 7 years and burn down a forest.  I want what I WANT!  Make predictions based on the psyche of the group whose behavior you are making the prediction about.

For some (particularly rural) places, absolutely I agree.

Now live where I do (spitting distance from NYC) and you'll get a whole new perspective. Many of my friends don't even own a car to begin with -- on-demand autonomous cars would be a boon to this area.

WalkaboutStache

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Re: Are we headed towards a future where Mustachian cars are not available?
« Reply #28 on: April 27, 2018, 02:16:34 AM »
Nah, Ford just threw in the towel but instead of admitting that they don't know how to make small cars, they blamed on consumer demand.  Demand may be weak, but it is probably only for the junk they put out.

Their large ones are not that good either.

use2betrix

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Re: Are we headed towards a future where Mustachian cars are not available?
« Reply #29 on: April 27, 2018, 04:26:32 AM »
A 1995 Toyota Camry gets 23-31mpg.  A 2018 Ford EcoSport 4x4 crossover gets 27-29mpg.  A 2018 RAV4 gets 30mpg highway.

Crossovers are not necessarily the gas-guzzling SUVs of yesteryear.

I guess this is why I own a Toyota and a Honda.  Both small.
Yes, but my question is how long before Toyota and Honda decide they they are not selling any small cars in the same market and pull out as well?  The question really should indicate "in the US" at the end of it.  This is not a global problem.  I would be curious if it is only American carmakers that are seeing lack of sales on sedans, because the explanation could be that if you buy a small car you buy a foreign make because the American models are so poorly made, and the American car makers will be the brands that the massive car wanting consumer will flock to.

The Civic, Camry, Corolla, and Accord are all among the top 10 selling vehicles in the USA. 

https://www.caranddriver.com/flipbook/the-best-selling-vehicles-of-2017-arent-all-trucks-and-suvs-just-most-of-them#17

Note there are zero Ford sedans on that list, yet they decimate the entire field with the F-series pickups (and have led sales for 41 consecutive years).  I don't blame them for doing what they do best.

THIS! There are fuel efficient small SUVís, heaven forbid anyone wants to admit there are small SUVís that get better mileage than many sedans.

My DD is a 1999 (V6) Camry with 137k miles. My commute is primarily about 25ish miles each way of interstate at 78 mph.

I rarely get over 23mpg. TONS of suvís nowadays best that.

ShoulderThingThatGoesUp

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Re: Are we headed towards a future where Mustachian cars are not available?
« Reply #30 on: April 27, 2018, 06:25:48 AM »
Hot Take - there's no such thing as owning a Mustachian car

This.

Also, I own a very efficient car; I spent $60 on gas last year to drive 7000 miles.

Itís a Ford.

dragoncar

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Re: Are we headed towards a future where Mustachian cars are not available?
« Reply #31 on: April 27, 2018, 06:52:20 AM »

Also, the idea that smaller cars are deathtraps is also misleading, considering Ford just had one of their SUVs get the lowest possible safety rating for passengers. Basically, in a head-on collision, the driver is protected by the structural design, but the passenger gets a facefull of dashboard and engine parts because they completely neglected that side of the vehicle(because prior to this year, passenger side was never tested).


Why on earth would you ever bring a passenger in your SUV?

FIRE47

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Re: Are we headed towards a future where Mustachian cars are not available?
« Reply #32 on: April 27, 2018, 09:18:33 AM »
The demand is slowly declining for sedans and small cars but as more players drop out their will be less competition and more incentive for the remaining players to stay in the space. They still sold 4-500k of these discontinued cars its just that they are giving up as they can't compete with the people who actually reinvest and offer a good product in these classes. Most of these models were due for a major redesign and Ford just can't be bothered.

Fords problem is they didn't reinvest and have never had a great offering with any of these cars the Fusion and Focus were simply OK the rest of the stuff they are discontinuing was garbage. Maybe 3-4 years ago they had something with the Fusion but they always try to milk their designs for far too long and then wonder why sales decline.

Does anyone remember the Ford Ranger? Ford whined that no-one wanted a compact truck and couldn't figure out why the sales were declining. The Truck was virtually unchanged from 2000 until it was discontinued in 2011, and truth be told the design was not that much different from even the early 90s. Even still they were selling a few hundred thousand by the end. It was only after GM ate their lunch by offering a good product in the space that Ford pulled their head out of their ass.
« Last Edit: April 27, 2018, 09:24:48 AM by FIRE47 »

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Re: Are we headed towards a future where Mustachian cars are not available?
« Reply #33 on: April 27, 2018, 09:24:09 AM »
They're keeping the Focus.  There will likely always be options.


I have a Focus. I would not recommend buying one. I have a philosophical objection to a car that's been in the shop 4 times for a messed up transmission and it's not quite at 30k miles. Plus, the windshield wipers don't work right on full speed. It is a safety hazard when the wipers STOP WORKING in the middle of  a rainstorm.

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Re: Are we headed towards a future where Mustachian cars are not available?
« Reply #34 on: April 27, 2018, 10:35:40 AM »
I think that once the makers of self-driving cars figure out the technology to the extent that these vehicles are considered to be safe enough for regular use, most people will just stop buying cars at all.Why buy your own car if you can just order a self-driving car when you need it, through an Uber-like platform?  I predict that the price of a ride will drop pretty far if there is no need for a human driver.
Some people will still buy their own cars, but not most people.
Just my prediction.

In addition to the ownership issue, the reality is that a huge number of Americans just plain love, love, love to drive.  Spend some time on other personal finance sites that aren't as extreme as this one.  It's post after post about how people are readjusting their budgets to be able to buy expensive cars because they adore cars and adore the whole driving experience.  I hate driving to the point of being neurotic about it, so it's a mystery to me.

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Re: Are we headed towards a future where Mustachian cars are not available?
« Reply #35 on: April 27, 2018, 10:46:08 AM »
I think that once the makers of self-driving cars figure out the technology to the extent that these vehicles are considered to be safe enough for regular use, most people will just stop buying cars at all.Why buy your own car if you can just order a self-driving car when you need it, through an Uber-like platform?  I predict that the price of a ride will drop pretty far if there is no need for a human driver.
Some people will still buy their own cars, but not most people.
Just my prediction.

In addition to the ownership issue, the reality is that a huge number of Americans just plain love, love, love to drive.  Spend some time on other personal finance sites that aren't as extreme as this one.  It's post after post about how people are readjusting their budgets to be able to buy expensive cars because they adore cars and adore the whole driving experience.  I hate driving to the point of being neurotic about it, so it's a mystery to me.

Oh I do too - I've had performance mid-engine sports cars for over 13 years now.

I'd still be thrilled to be able to call an autonomous car to drive me to work while I steal a nap!

haflander

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Re: Are we headed towards a future where Mustachian cars are not available?
« Reply #36 on: April 27, 2018, 10:52:48 AM »
I think @Pigeon is right. Maybe it's in Americans' blood because the car market was once a strong contributor to our economy; we did invent the car, after all. My whole life I've enjoyed the physical act of driving. Rolling the window down and blasting my favorite music driving home from work on Fridays (today!) is one of the best and most reliable emotional experiences of my week. And no, it's not only the fact that it's Friday...I get the same feeling just cruising around in a car that's fun to drive. My first car was a Mustang and my second was a Lancer GTS. I'm a millennial but I suspect that the relationship of a car and the corresponding independence/freedom associated with it (for most non-Mustachians) is even stronger for the older generations. I love driving even though I've come to realize that I suck at it, causing my insurance to be really expensive. I know that financially it's way too expensive to drive around and I think about that more and more (slowly improving), espy with poor mpg. However, when I'm actually driving, I enjoy it. I wonder whether that feeling would be the same if I was in the driver's seat but not actually driving a self-driving car...Idk.

I'm planning on biking to work soon and am hoping that this will alleviate my love of driving.

boarder42

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Re: Are we headed towards a future where Mustachian cars are not available?
« Reply #37 on: April 27, 2018, 10:54:56 AM »
we're headed towards a future where no one owns cars anymore and they are all electric. the most mustachian option. 

zhelud

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Re: Are we headed towards a future where Mustachian cars are not available?
« Reply #38 on: April 27, 2018, 11:09:43 AM »
I think that once the makers of self-driving cars figure out the technology to the extent that these vehicles are considered to be safe enough for regular use, most people will just stop buying cars at all.Why buy your own car if you can just order a self-driving car when you need it, through an Uber-like platform?  I predict that the price of a ride will drop pretty far if there is no need for a human driver.
Some people will still buy their own cars, but not most people.
Just my prediction.



I doubt it.  At least not in this country.  People like to possess things.  I mean why buy your own house and waste time and money on maintenance when you can rent an apartment and have everything done for you? The math doesn't always work better for owning. Houses don't always appreciate, etc. But not many people say they want to live in an apartment even if they currently do; they're just waiting until they qualify. Not exactly the same but speaks to the American mentality.

Some will adopt and many won't.  People want their own stuff.  They want to keep their stuff in their car for their convenience.  They don't want to be respectful of the fact that someone else will be getting in behind them, if they spill something or rip the seat, they don't care because they OWN it.  Muddy boots? No problem I'll clean it when I get to it not pay a fee for messing up the car or try to clean off my boots before I get in.  So I predict certain segments of society will love it (people taking mass transit, folks with suspended licenses, those with greater concern for the environment).  But folks like me that hate to drive will love the self driving car but I'm not sharing as long as I can afford not to.  Once it's electric my environmental footprint goes down enough for me to have a clear conscience. Especially if we have more solar power by then.  There is a thread about the future and self driving cars we can go to without further foaming up this one.

I need a place to live almost all the time, though.  I need a car for about 20 minutes twice a day.
Many people are in their cars a lot more than that.  Long commutes (which people might be encouraged to make longer if they can do something else during that time and have the convenience of not dealing with mass transit), shopping, sports and dance practice, salesmen, you name it.  Traffic congestion in large cities is all day strong; it's just ridiculously worse during typical commute times.

That doesn't change the argument.  For the vast majority of people, when they're not in a car they don't need a car.  You do still need a home (and that doesn't change when you leave home), unless you live out of a backpack and sleep under a tree or something.

From my own observations, I think that the younger generation doesn't care nearly as much about cars and driving as older folks.  They are happy to use Lyft and Uber and I think they will transition well to ordering up self-driving cars as needed.

Car enthusiasts will still buy cars- maybe even more than they buy now, because there will be a new option- running your own small business by owning a small fleet of 5-10 self-driving cars and making them available on an Uber or Lyft-like platform. The owner will spend the time to repair and maintain them so they are deployable.  Overall, though, I think there will be a lot fewer cars, concentrated among fewer owners.

Just my prediction.

boarder42

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Re: Are we headed towards a future where Mustachian cars are not available?
« Reply #39 on: April 27, 2018, 11:23:42 AM »
I think that once the makers of self-driving cars figure out the technology to the extent that these vehicles are considered to be safe enough for regular use, most people will just stop buying cars at all.Why buy your own car if you can just order a self-driving car when you need it, through an Uber-like platform?  I predict that the price of a ride will drop pretty far if there is no need for a human driver.
Some people will still buy their own cars, but not most people.
Just my prediction.



I doubt it.  At least not in this country.  People like to possess things.  I mean why buy your own house and waste time and money on maintenance when you can rent an apartment and have everything done for you? The math doesn't always work better for owning. Houses don't always appreciate, etc. But not many people say they want to live in an apartment even if they currently do; they're just waiting until they qualify. Not exactly the same but speaks to the American mentality.

Some will adopt and many won't.  People want their own stuff.  They want to keep their stuff in their car for their convenience.  They don't want to be respectful of the fact that someone else will be getting in behind them, if they spill something or rip the seat, they don't care because they OWN it.  Muddy boots? No problem I'll clean it when I get to it not pay a fee for messing up the car or try to clean off my boots before I get in.  So I predict certain segments of society will love it (people taking mass transit, folks with suspended licenses, those with greater concern for the environment).  But folks like me that hate to drive will love the self driving car but I'm not sharing as long as I can afford not to.  Once it's electric my environmental footprint goes down enough for me to have a clear conscience. Especially if we have more solar power by then.  There is a thread about the future and self driving cars we can go to without further foaming up this one.

I need a place to live almost all the time, though.  I need a car for about 20 minutes twice a day.
Many people are in their cars a lot more than that.  Long commutes (which people might be encouraged to make longer if they can do something else during that time and have the convenience of not dealing with mass transit), shopping, sports and dance practice, salesmen, you name it.  Traffic congestion in large cities is all day strong; it's just ridiculously worse during typical commute times.

That doesn't change the argument.  For the vast majority of people, when they're not in a car they don't need a car.  You do still need a home (and that doesn't change when you leave home), unless you live out of a backpack and sleep under a tree or something.

From my own observations, I think that the younger generation doesn't care nearly as much about cars and driving as older folks.  They are happy to use Lyft and Uber and I think they will transition well to ordering up self-driving cars as needed.

Car enthusiasts will still buy cars- maybe even more than they buy now, because there will be a new option- running your own small business by owning a small fleet of 5-10 self-driving cars and making them available on an Uber or Lyft-like platform. The owner will spend the time to repair and maintain them so they are deployable.  Overall, though, I think there will be a lot fewer cars, concentrated among fewer owners.

Just my prediction.

only the rich will be able to afford to own cars around 2030 the cost to insure privately will be too high self driving cars are going to completely change the way we think about transportation and mindless errands we run.  you wont be going to a supermarket it will just be online and you'll get it delivered by an autonomous car.  parking lots go away we need far fewer cars in an automous car world - this is confirmation bias if you havent viewed it yet but i dont think many of his dates are too crazy he lists in this video

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0

on top of that most of his predictions have been to conservative.  I find it wildly humorous when people posit that this cant happen b/c people hate change.  the world changes constantly and now is changing faster than every - when something is cheaper and more convient it wins doesnt matter if people are against it.  there isnt much change in infrastructure necessary to make a car autonomous work really well.  its coming its coming fast and it will be an exponential adoption.

JLee

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Re: Are we headed towards a future where Mustachian cars are not available?
« Reply #40 on: April 27, 2018, 12:03:05 PM »
I think that once the makers of self-driving cars figure out the technology to the extent that these vehicles are considered to be safe enough for regular use, most people will just stop buying cars at all.Why buy your own car if you can just order a self-driving car when you need it, through an Uber-like platform?  I predict that the price of a ride will drop pretty far if there is no need for a human driver.
Some people will still buy their own cars, but not most people.
Just my prediction.



I doubt it.  At least not in this country.  People like to possess things.  I mean why buy your own house and waste time and money on maintenance when you can rent an apartment and have everything done for you? The math doesn't always work better for owning. Houses don't always appreciate, etc. But not many people say they want to live in an apartment even if they currently do; they're just waiting until they qualify. Not exactly the same but speaks to the American mentality.

Some will adopt and many won't.  People want their own stuff.  They want to keep their stuff in their car for their convenience.  They don't want to be respectful of the fact that someone else will be getting in behind them, if they spill something or rip the seat, they don't care because they OWN it.  Muddy boots? No problem I'll clean it when I get to it not pay a fee for messing up the car or try to clean off my boots before I get in.  So I predict certain segments of society will love it (people taking mass transit, folks with suspended licenses, those with greater concern for the environment).  But folks like me that hate to drive will love the self driving car but I'm not sharing as long as I can afford not to.  Once it's electric my environmental footprint goes down enough for me to have a clear conscience. Especially if we have more solar power by then.  There is a thread about the future and self driving cars we can go to without further foaming up this one.

I need a place to live almost all the time, though.  I need a car for about 20 minutes twice a day.
Many people are in their cars a lot more than that.  Long commutes (which people might be encouraged to make longer if they can do something else during that time and have the convenience of not dealing with mass transit), shopping, sports and dance practice, salesmen, you name it.  Traffic congestion in large cities is all day strong; it's just ridiculously worse during typical commute times.

That doesn't change the argument.  For the vast majority of people, when they're not in a car they don't need a car.  You do still need a home (and that doesn't change when you leave home), unless you live out of a backpack and sleep under a tree or something.

From my own observations, I think that the younger generation doesn't care nearly as much about cars and driving as older folks.  They are happy to use Lyft and Uber and I think they will transition well to ordering up self-driving cars as needed.

Car enthusiasts will still buy cars- maybe even more than they buy now, because there will be a new option- running your own small business by owning a small fleet of 5-10 self-driving cars and making them available on an Uber or Lyft-like platform. The owner will spend the time to repair and maintain them so they are deployable.  Overall, though, I think there will be a lot fewer cars, concentrated among fewer owners.

Just my prediction.

only the rich will be able to afford to own cars around 2030 the cost to insure privately will be too high self driving cars are going to completely change the way we think about transportation and mindless errands we run.  you wont be going to a supermarket it will just be online and you'll get it delivered by an autonomous car.  parking lots go away we need far fewer cars in an automous car world - this is confirmation bias if you havent viewed it yet but i dont think many of his dates are too crazy he lists in this video

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0

on top of that most of his predictions have been to conservative.  I find it wildly humorous when people posit that this cant happen b/c people hate change.  the world changes constantly and now is changing faster than every - when something is cheaper and more convient it wins doesnt matter if people are against it.  there isnt much change in infrastructure necessary to make a car autonomous work really well.  its coming its coming fast and it will be an exponential adoption.

Why would insurance be any higher than it is today? 

NoStacheOhio

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Re: Are we headed towards a future where Mustachian cars are not available?
« Reply #41 on: April 27, 2018, 12:24:32 PM »
Why would insurance be any higher than it is today?

Because there will eventually be a point where robots are safer than humans. At which point the insurance companies will increase rates to encourage safer choices with fewer payouts and more profits.

Optimiser

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Re: Are we headed towards a future where Mustachian cars are not available?
« Reply #42 on: April 27, 2018, 12:29:55 PM »
I think that once the makers of self-driving cars figure out the technology to the extent that these vehicles are considered to be safe enough for regular use, most people will just stop buying cars at all.Why buy your own car if you can just order a self-driving car when you need it, through an Uber-like platform?  I predict that the price of a ride will drop pretty far if there is no need for a human driver.
Some people will still buy their own cars, but not most people.
Just my prediction.

In addition to the ownership issue, the reality is that a huge number of Americans just plain love, love, love to drive.  Spend some time on other personal finance sites that aren't as extreme as this one.  It's post after post about how people are readjusting their budgets to be able to buy expensive cars because they adore cars and adore the whole driving experience.  I hate driving to the point of being neurotic about it, so it's a mystery to me.

Oh I do too - I've had performance mid-engine sports cars for over 13 years now.

I'd still be thrilled to be able to call an autonomous car to drive me to work while I steal a nap!

I love my sports car too, but I would gladly share the equivalent of an autonomous Uber for my daily commute if it was as cheap or cheaper than driving myself to work.

I think @Pigeon is right. Maybe it's in Americans' blood because the car market was once a strong contributor to our economy; we did invent the car, after all. My whole life I've enjoyed the physical act of driving. Rolling the window down and blasting my favorite music driving home from work on Fridays (today!) is one of the best and most reliable emotional experiences of my week. And no, it's not only the fact that it's Friday...I get the same feeling just cruising around in a car that's fun to drive. My first car was a Mustang and my second was a Lancer GTS. I'm a millennial but I suspect that the relationship of a car and the corresponding independence/freedom associated with it (for most non-Mustachians) is even stronger for the older generations. I love driving even though I've come to realize that I suck at it, causing my insurance to be really expensive. I know that financially it's way too expensive to drive around and I think about that more and more (slowly improving), espy with poor mpg. However, when I'm actually driving, I enjoy it. I wonder whether that feeling would be the same if I was in the driver's seat but not actually driving a self-driving car...Idk.

I'm planning on biking to work soon and am hoping that this will alleviate my love of driving.


I get the same joy from driving my car sometimes, winding mountain roads for example, or driving around the city with top down. I don't think it would be the same experience in a driverless car. But there is a lot of driving that is either boring or even frustrating like driving on the interstate or sitting in traffic. I would gladly let give up all of those driving experiences.

I think riding a bike can be almost as fun as the best driving experiences if the weather, terrain etc. are right, but it can also be a chore when it's cold, raining, windy, or you're tired.

I think that once the makers of self-driving cars figure out the technology to the extent that these vehicles are considered to be safe enough for regular use, most people will just stop buying cars at all.Why buy your own car if you can just order a self-driving car when you need it, through an Uber-like platform?  I predict that the price of a ride will drop pretty far if there is no need for a human driver.
Some people will still buy their own cars, but not most people.
Just my prediction.



I doubt it.  At least not in this country.  People like to possess things.  I mean why buy your own house and waste time and money on maintenance when you can rent an apartment and have everything done for you? The math doesn't always work better for owning. Houses don't always appreciate, etc. But not many people say they want to live in an apartment even if they currently do; they're just waiting until they qualify. Not exactly the same but speaks to the American mentality.

Some will adopt and many won't.  People want their own stuff.  They want to keep their stuff in their car for their convenience.  They don't want to be respectful of the fact that someone else will be getting in behind them, if they spill something or rip the seat, they don't care because they OWN it.  Muddy boots? No problem I'll clean it when I get to it not pay a fee for messing up the car or try to clean off my boots before I get in.  So I predict certain segments of society will love it (people taking mass transit, folks with suspended licenses, those with greater concern for the environment).  But folks like me that hate to drive will love the self driving car but I'm not sharing as long as I can afford not to.  Once it's electric my environmental footprint goes down enough for me to have a clear conscience. Especially if we have more solar power by then.  There is a thread about the future and self driving cars we can go to without further foaming up this one.

I need a place to live almost all the time, though.  I need a car for about 20 minutes twice a day.
Many people are in their cars a lot more than that.  Long commutes (which people might be encouraged to make longer if they can do something else during that time and have the convenience of not dealing with mass transit), shopping, sports and dance practice, salesmen, you name it.  Traffic congestion in large cities is all day strong; it's just ridiculously worse during typical commute times.

That doesn't change the argument.  For the vast majority of people, when they're not in a car they don't need a car.  You do still need a home (and that doesn't change when you leave home), unless you live out of a backpack and sleep under a tree or something.

From my own observations, I think that the younger generation doesn't care nearly as much about cars and driving as older folks.  They are happy to use Lyft and Uber and I think they will transition well to ordering up self-driving cars as needed.

Car enthusiasts will still buy cars- maybe even more than they buy now, because there will be a new option- running your own small business by owning a small fleet of 5-10 self-driving cars and making them available on an Uber or Lyft-like platform. The owner will spend the time to repair and maintain them so they are deployable.  Overall, though, I think there will be a lot fewer cars, concentrated among fewer owners.

Just my prediction.

only the rich will be able to afford to own cars around 2030 the cost to insure privately will be too high self driving cars are going to completely change the way we think about transportation and mindless errands we run.  you wont be going to a supermarket it will just be online and you'll get it delivered by an autonomous car.  parking lots go away we need far fewer cars in an automous car world - this is confirmation bias if you havent viewed it yet but i dont think many of his dates are too crazy he lists in this video

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0

on top of that most of his predictions have been to conservative.  I find it wildly humorous when people posit that this cant happen b/c people hate change.  the world changes constantly and now is changing faster than every - when something is cheaper and more convient it wins doesnt matter if people are against it.  there isnt much change in infrastructure necessary to make a car autonomous work really well.  its coming its coming fast and it will be an exponential adoption.

I mostly agree with your predictions, but I'm curious why you think the cost of insurance will be higher in the future. Isn't the cost of insurance based on the (likelihood of an accident) x (cost of an accident) + profit. Manually driving in a world of self driving cars the likelihood of an accident will probably be lower, because even if you make a mistake, the self-driving cars will be better at defensive driving than human drivers. The cost of an accident will likely be higher because if you hit a self-driving car you will damage the expensive sensors located in the bumpers, but I don't think this will make insurance so expensive only the rich can afford it.

ChpBstrd

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Re: Are we headed towards a future where Mustachian cars are not available?
« Reply #43 on: April 27, 2018, 12:54:21 PM »
1) Ford's supplier has not built a quality automatic transmission in at least 45 years. The Pintos that exploded in the 70's were often rear ended after their transmissions blew out on the freeway. They gave up a market rather than fix a decades-long quality problem.

2) Ford's costs are higher than their competitors, so they must retreat up-market.

3) Ford may be positioning themselves for a future where the poor use car services or autonomous busses to commute, the rich own trucks and SUVs to navigate the potholed roads nobody wants to fix, and the declining rural population has little choice but to buy F150s for the manual labor economy.

4) As the 1950s-1980s suburbs decay and millenials rent close-in apartments and drive less, and as small car durability hits new highs, Ford probably sees a shrinking market.

5) Regulatory changes requiring all-around airbags, backup cameras, etc. reduce the gap between small car prices and big car prices. Example: The 5y total cost of ownership for a Chevy Colorado is "only" about $3-4k less than the Chevy Silverado (see edmunds.com/tco). These same economics killed the Ford Ranger.

6) Declining environmental regulation.

7) Rising interest rates and credit standards make subprime lending harder, and this is how Ford traditionally moved its small cars.

Overall, the company deserves its PE ratio of about 5 for getting into this predicament. The next deep recession might bankrupt them.

boarder42

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Re: Are we headed towards a future where Mustachian cars are not available?
« Reply #44 on: April 27, 2018, 02:02:54 PM »
I think that once the makers of self-driving cars figure out the technology to the extent that these vehicles are considered to be safe enough for regular use, most people will just stop buying cars at all.Why buy your own car if you can just order a self-driving car when you need it, through an Uber-like platform?  I predict that the price of a ride will drop pretty far if there is no need for a human driver.
Some people will still buy their own cars, but not most people.
Just my prediction.

In addition to the ownership issue, the reality is that a huge number of Americans just plain love, love, love to drive.  Spend some time on other personal finance sites that aren't as extreme as this one.  It's post after post about how people are readjusting their budgets to be able to buy expensive cars because they adore cars and adore the whole driving experience.  I hate driving to the point of being neurotic about it, so it's a mystery to me.

Oh I do too - I've had performance mid-engine sports cars for over 13 years now.

I'd still be thrilled to be able to call an autonomous car to drive me to work while I steal a nap!

I love my sports car too, but I would gladly share the equivalent of an autonomous Uber for my daily commute if it was as cheap or cheaper than driving myself to work.

I think @Pigeon is right. Maybe it's in Americans' blood because the car market was once a strong contributor to our economy; we did invent the car, after all. My whole life I've enjoyed the physical act of driving. Rolling the window down and blasting my favorite music driving home from work on Fridays (today!) is one of the best and most reliable emotional experiences of my week. And no, it's not only the fact that it's Friday...I get the same feeling just cruising around in a car that's fun to drive. My first car was a Mustang and my second was a Lancer GTS. I'm a millennial but I suspect that the relationship of a car and the corresponding independence/freedom associated with it (for most non-Mustachians) is even stronger for the older generations. I love driving even though I've come to realize that I suck at it, causing my insurance to be really expensive. I know that financially it's way too expensive to drive around and I think about that more and more (slowly improving), espy with poor mpg. However, when I'm actually driving, I enjoy it. I wonder whether that feeling would be the same if I was in the driver's seat but not actually driving a self-driving car...Idk.

I'm planning on biking to work soon and am hoping that this will alleviate my love of driving.


I get the same joy from driving my car sometimes, winding mountain roads for example, or driving around the city with top down. I don't think it would be the same experience in a driverless car. But there is a lot of driving that is either boring or even frustrating like driving on the interstate or sitting in traffic. I would gladly let give up all of those driving experiences.

I think riding a bike can be almost as fun as the best driving experiences if the weather, terrain etc. are right, but it can also be a chore when it's cold, raining, windy, or you're tired.

I think that once the makers of self-driving cars figure out the technology to the extent that these vehicles are considered to be safe enough for regular use, most people will just stop buying cars at all.Why buy your own car if you can just order a self-driving car when you need it, through an Uber-like platform?  I predict that the price of a ride will drop pretty far if there is no need for a human driver.
Some people will still buy their own cars, but not most people.
Just my prediction.



I doubt it.  At least not in this country.  People like to possess things.  I mean why buy your own house and waste time and money on maintenance when you can rent an apartment and have everything done for you? The math doesn't always work better for owning. Houses don't always appreciate, etc. But not many people say they want to live in an apartment even if they currently do; they're just waiting until they qualify. Not exactly the same but speaks to the American mentality.

Some will adopt and many won't.  People want their own stuff.  They want to keep their stuff in their car for their convenience.  They don't want to be respectful of the fact that someone else will be getting in behind them, if they spill something or rip the seat, they don't care because they OWN it.  Muddy boots? No problem I'll clean it when I get to it not pay a fee for messing up the car or try to clean off my boots before I get in.  So I predict certain segments of society will love it (people taking mass transit, folks with suspended licenses, those with greater concern for the environment).  But folks like me that hate to drive will love the self driving car but I'm not sharing as long as I can afford not to.  Once it's electric my environmental footprint goes down enough for me to have a clear conscience. Especially if we have more solar power by then.  There is a thread about the future and self driving cars we can go to without further foaming up this one.

I need a place to live almost all the time, though.  I need a car for about 20 minutes twice a day.
Many people are in their cars a lot more than that.  Long commutes (which people might be encouraged to make longer if they can do something else during that time and have the convenience of not dealing with mass transit), shopping, sports and dance practice, salesmen, you name it.  Traffic congestion in large cities is all day strong; it's just ridiculously worse during typical commute times.

That doesn't change the argument.  For the vast majority of people, when they're not in a car they don't need a car.  You do still need a home (and that doesn't change when you leave home), unless you live out of a backpack and sleep under a tree or something.

From my own observations, I think that the younger generation doesn't care nearly as much about cars and driving as older folks.  They are happy to use Lyft and Uber and I think they will transition well to ordering up self-driving cars as needed.

Car enthusiasts will still buy cars- maybe even more than they buy now, because there will be a new option- running your own small business by owning a small fleet of 5-10 self-driving cars and making them available on an Uber or Lyft-like platform. The owner will spend the time to repair and maintain them so they are deployable.  Overall, though, I think there will be a lot fewer cars, concentrated among fewer owners.

Just my prediction.

only the rich will be able to afford to own cars around 2030 the cost to insure privately will be too high self driving cars are going to completely change the way we think about transportation and mindless errands we run.  you wont be going to a supermarket it will just be online and you'll get it delivered by an autonomous car.  parking lots go away we need far fewer cars in an automous car world - this is confirmation bias if you havent viewed it yet but i dont think many of his dates are too crazy he lists in this video

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0

on top of that most of his predictions have been to conservative.  I find it wildly humorous when people posit that this cant happen b/c people hate change.  the world changes constantly and now is changing faster than every - when something is cheaper and more convient it wins doesnt matter if people are against it.  there isnt much change in infrastructure necessary to make a car autonomous work really well.  its coming its coming fast and it will be an exponential adoption.

I mostly agree with your predictions, but I'm curious why you think the cost of insurance will be higher in the future. Isn't the cost of insurance based on the (likelihood of an accident) x (cost of an accident) + profit. Manually driving in a world of self driving cars the likelihood of an accident will probably be lower, because even if you make a mistake, the self-driving cars will be better at defensive driving than human drivers. The cost of an accident will likely be higher because if you hit a self-driving car you will damage the expensive sensors located in the bumpers, but I don't think this will make insurance so expensive only the rich can afford it.

i probably wasnt clear but i was indicating the cost of insurance to insure a human driver on the roads.  also the paradox of private citizens owning vehicles and having to either take on the risk of the car malfunctioning and hurting someone or the auto companies that developed the tech would have to own that part.

JLee

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Re: Are we headed towards a future where Mustachian cars are not available?
« Reply #45 on: April 27, 2018, 02:03:52 PM »
i probably wasnt clear but i was indicating the cost of insurance to insure a human driver on the roads.  also the paradox of private citizens owning vehicles and having to either take on the risk of the car malfunctioning and hurting someone or the auto companies that developed the tech would have to own that part.

Why would that cost be any higher than it is today?  Are we going to become dramatically more dangerous drivers overnight?

boarder42

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Re: Are we headed towards a future where Mustachian cars are not available?
« Reply #46 on: April 27, 2018, 02:04:13 PM »
also not sure who said this but the americans didnt invent the car Benz did he was a german living in germany. 

boarder42

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Re: Are we headed towards a future where Mustachian cars are not available?
« Reply #47 on: April 27, 2018, 02:06:43 PM »
i probably wasnt clear but i was indicating the cost of insurance to insure a human driver on the roads.  also the paradox of private citizens owning vehicles and having to either take on the risk of the car malfunctioning and hurting someone or the auto companies that developed the tech would have to own that part.

Why would that cost be any higher than it is today?  Are we going to become dramatically more dangerous drivers overnight?

an insurance company is not going to want to insure a human driver anymore amidst a stream of automated vehicles the pool of human drivers will shrink and the cost to insure a human driving amongst machines will go up to price most people out of the market.  If you havent noticed accidents are on the rise again and liabiilty insurance is already creeping back up.  I dont really know how to explain it to you if you dont understand that a human driving in a world of machines makes it more dangerous for everyone.

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Re: Are we headed towards a future where Mustachian cars are not available?
« Reply #48 on: April 27, 2018, 02:13:35 PM »
i probably wasnt clear but i was indicating the cost of insurance to insure a human driver on the roads.  also the paradox of private citizens owning vehicles and having to either take on the risk of the car malfunctioning and hurting someone or the auto companies that developed the tech would have to own that part.

Why would that cost be any higher than it is today?  Are we going to become dramatically more dangerous drivers overnight?

an insurance company is not going to want to insure a human driver anymore amidst a stream of automated vehicles the pool of human drivers will shrink and the cost to insure a human driving amongst machines will go up to price most people out of the market.  If you havent noticed accidents are on the rise again and liabiilty insurance is already creeping back up.  I dont really know how to explain it to you if you dont understand that a human driving in a world of machines makes it more dangerous for everyone.

More dangerous than what? Obviously a human driver is going to be more dangerous than a non-human driver, but is a human driver in an autonomous driving world more dangerous than a human driver today?

I get that it will cost more to insure a car driven my a human than one driven by some AI system, but why will it cost more to insure a human driver in the future than it does today? (adjusting for inflation of course)

JLee

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Re: Are we headed towards a future where Mustachian cars are not available?
« Reply #49 on: April 27, 2018, 02:17:00 PM »
i probably wasnt clear but i was indicating the cost of insurance to insure a human driver on the roads.  also the paradox of private citizens owning vehicles and having to either take on the risk of the car malfunctioning and hurting someone or the auto companies that developed the tech would have to own that part.

Why would that cost be any higher than it is today?  Are we going to become dramatically more dangerous drivers overnight?

an insurance company is not going to want to insure a human driver anymore amidst a stream of automated vehicles the pool of human drivers will shrink and the cost to insure a human driving amongst machines will go up to price most people out of the market.  If you havent noticed accidents are on the rise again and liabiilty insurance is already creeping back up. I dont really know how to explain it to you if you dont understand that a human driving in a world of machines makes it more dangerous for everyone.

1) Why not?

2) That is already happening.

3) Why?

4) Largely irrelevant - insurance companies have the goal of remaining profitable.  If accidents go up across the board, so will insurance rates. Your claim is that rates will go up so much that people won't be able to afford it anymore -- in that case, insurance companies lose customers. When they lose customers, they lose revenue. Generally speaking, losing customers/revenue results in a loss.  I don't follow your "insurance companies are going to make their product so expensive that nobody can afford it" argument as being a profitable business decision.

You are assuming many things to be true without any facts or evidence to back your beliefs.
« Last Edit: April 27, 2018, 02:20:39 PM by JLee »