Author Topic: Anyone putting off overseas travel due to Corona virus?  (Read 20178 times)

spartana

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Anyone putting off overseas travel due to Corona virus?
« on: February 07, 2020, 09:45:13 AM »
Especially to Asian countries? I haven't been keeping up this and still plan one long overseas European trip this spring but lots of people I know have cancelled both overseas trips and any travel.that requires flying.

GuitarStv

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Re: Anyone putting off overseas travel due to Corona virus?
« Reply #1 on: February 07, 2020, 09:47:55 AM »
The company that my wife works for cancelled a pretty big deal business meeting that was supposed to happen this week with businessmen from Wuhan.  My company stopped all business travel to/from China last week.

Hirondelle

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Re: Anyone putting off overseas travel due to Corona virus?
« Reply #2 on: February 07, 2020, 10:15:41 AM »
I have a trip to Asia (not China) planned in April and am very, very happy to have booked flights that do not go through China.

Unless there's an actual outbreak in the country I'm visiting by the time I'm going, I don't see a reason to cancel. Asia's pretty big and I mean, Germany's (13) got more cases than some of China's neighbouring countries (e.g Vietnam 12, Russia 1, Mongolia and Laos still at 0) and I'm also not running away from here (NL).

Rdy2Fire

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Re: Anyone putting off overseas travel due to Corona virus?
« Reply #3 on: February 07, 2020, 10:19:44 AM »
Not changing any plans. Granted I wouldn't be booking a trip back to China right now either

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Re: Anyone putting off overseas travel due to Corona virus?
« Reply #4 on: February 07, 2020, 12:23:28 PM »
Just this morning received word our NCL cruise around Japan on July 15th has been cancelled, as are ALL Asia cruises through Dec 15.  Paying our airline change fees and offering an additional 10% off replacement cruise.
On a personal level disappointing because I really liked the timing and port selection.
On a larger mankind level, that response to this virus means the risk managers, lawyers and insurance companies has serious consequences to share value...which means they are not very confident this event will Peter out any time soon. 
I haven’t solidified my opinion as to the seriousness of this threat yet, but the professionals threat assessment must not be very encouraging.   
Just read that produce in Chile is starting to back up as over a third of their exports go straight to China.  The ripples from this outbreak are increasing and not really convinced the originating country of origin is being transparent about real conditions in China.

ditheca

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Re: Anyone putting off overseas travel due to Corona virus?
« Reply #5 on: February 07, 2020, 12:29:22 PM »
Yep.  I was taking DW and my oldest kid to China in late April to celebrate her graduation.  We just got notified that our flight has been cancelled.

JoJo

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Re: Anyone putting off overseas travel due to Corona virus?
« Reply #6 on: February 07, 2020, 12:35:57 PM »
Just this morning received word our NCL cruise around Japan on July 15th has been cancelled, as are ALL Asia cruises through Dec 15.  Paying our airline change fees and offering an additional 10% off replacement cruise.
On a personal level disappointing because I really liked the timing and port selection.
On a larger mankind level, that response to this virus means the risk managers, lawyers and insurance companies has serious consequences to share value...which means they are not very confident this event will Peter out any time soon. 
I haven’t solidified my opinion as to the seriousness of this threat yet, but the professionals threat assessment must not be very encouraging.   
Just read that produce in Chile is starting to back up as over a third of their exports go straight to China.  The ripples from this outbreak are increasing and not really convinced the originating country of origin is being transparent about real conditions in China.

Given that incuabator of a cruise ship sitting off Japan... over 61 contracted it and the unsick basically need to stay in their room for 2 weeks... will cost that cruise company and insurer millions.   There's also one off NJ where it seems increasing people sick.

That 61 number scares me the most... when people started falling sick they put protections in place and still so many people got it.

TrMama

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Re: Anyone putting off overseas travel due to Corona virus?
« Reply #7 on: February 07, 2020, 12:47:14 PM »
No. We're also going to Europe next month. The plan is London and a couple spots in France over 2 weeks. Even with Brexit, the Paris strikes and now Corona I'm still planning on going. Hopefully things will just be less crowded.

That being said, you'll never catch us on a cruise ship. Those things are incubators of all kinds of disease and it's too easy to be "trapped" on them. Corona isn't the first illness to have turned a boat into a prison.

Cassie

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Re: Anyone putting off overseas travel due to Corona virus?
« Reply #8 on: February 07, 2020, 02:02:16 PM »
We have a month trip to Europe in August. We will wait and see. We will lose our airfare which is 1600 total. The hotels are refundable.  I am not booking any flights between countries until I see what happens.

socaso

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Re: Anyone putting off overseas travel due to Corona virus?
« Reply #9 on: February 07, 2020, 02:19:33 PM »
My bosses canceled a trip for China that was supposed to take place in April.

partdopy

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Re: Anyone putting off overseas travel due to Corona virus?
« Reply #10 on: February 07, 2020, 02:57:27 PM »
I wouldn't go to China, but otherwise I'd be far, far more worried about catching the flu on my flight than the corona virus.


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Re: Anyone putting off overseas travel due to Corona virus?
« Reply #11 on: February 07, 2020, 09:47:49 PM »
As others have said, work has cancelled all travel to and from China since last week.
My MIL canceled the China portion of her Asia trip for next month. I’m still hoping she will go to Malaysia as planned though my husband isn’t sure. We will see how that evolves. Personally I would have no problem going to Europe.

Granted, I don’t really follow the news, but it seems hard to tell how serious this really is versus something boring like the flu that doesn’t make the news but kills people every year.

meghan88

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Re: Anyone putting off overseas travel due to Corona virus?
« Reply #12 on: February 08, 2020, 09:09:28 AM »
No. We're also going to Europe next month. The plan is London and a couple spots in France over 2 weeks. Even with Brexit, the Paris strikes and now Corona I'm still planning on going. Hopefully things will just be less crowded.

That being said, you'll never catch us on a cruise ship. Those things are incubators of all kinds of disease and it's too easy to be "trapped" on them. Corona isn't the first illness to have turned a boat into a prison.

Totally agree re. cruise ships, and also re. travelling to Europe - we got to France last week with nary a thought to cancelling our plans.  Where in France are you going?

Hirondelle

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Re: Anyone putting off overseas travel due to Corona virus?
« Reply #13 on: February 08, 2020, 10:43:59 AM »
What's weird to me is that, based on some of the responses, it seems the cruise and tour companies are cancelling trips that are many month away and paying big buck to do that. Do they really feel that things will be worse 7 months or longer from now or are they just erring on the side of caution?

Most likely doing it for financial rather than safety reasons. E.g. KLM airlines decided to cancel their flights to China only once people stopped buying them. Although I think it's weird that companies are already canceling cruises 6 months out, I guess it's because they're not hitting their minimum numbers of passengers to make them happen in the first place.

sixwings

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Re: Anyone putting off overseas travel due to Corona virus?
« Reply #14 on: February 08, 2020, 10:57:18 AM »
I am planning a trek to nepal in september and am considering cancelling if a vaccine isn't available soon.

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Re: Anyone putting off overseas travel due to Corona virus?
« Reply #15 on: February 08, 2020, 12:31:51 PM »
I was planning on travel and put it off until the situation gets clearer.  I don't want to get stranded someplace, or deal with crowds of people in a tube (bus, plane, or train).

TrMama

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Re: Anyone putting off overseas travel due to Corona virus?
« Reply #16 on: February 08, 2020, 12:37:29 PM »
No. We're also going to Europe next month. The plan is London and a couple spots in France over 2 weeks. Even with Brexit, the Paris strikes and now Corona I'm still planning on going. Hopefully things will just be less crowded.

That being said, you'll never catch us on a cruise ship. Those things are incubators of all kinds of disease and it's too easy to be "trapped" on them. Corona isn't the first illness to have turned a boat into a prison.

Totally agree re. cruise ships, and also re. travelling to Europe - we got to France last week with nary a thought to cancelling our plans.  Where in France are you going?

We're spending one night in Caen so DH can visit Juno beach, 3 or 4 nights in the Loire so I can see castles and then 4 or 5 nights in Paris. I'm really hoping the metro strikes will be over for good while we're there, but even if they haven't we'll just adapt and visit things closer to where we're staying. My kids are most interested in visiting as many bakeries as possible. Pretty sure that's not going to be a problem ;-)

What's weird to me is that, based on some of the responses, it seems the cruise and tour companies are cancelling trips that are many month away and paying big buck to do that. Do they really feel that things will be worse 7 months or longer from now or are they just erring on the side of caution?

Most likely doing it for financial rather than safety reasons. E.g. KLM airlines decided to cancel their flights to China only once people stopped buying them. Although I think it's weird that companies are already canceling cruises 6 months out, I guess it's because they're not hitting their minimum numbers of passengers to make them happen in the first place.
That makes sense and I hadn't thought of that. While it seems like a bit of overkill this early on, I guess if people who normally makes reservation months earlier aren't doing that, or are cancelling, then cruise ships, flights and tours will likely sideline themselves. I have several friends who are cancelling domestic trips (flights, cruises of tours) and opting to do road trips instead this year.

I also have a hunch it may be because the type of traveler who books a cruise or group tour is also the type of person to be easily spooked by any kind of potential problem. Plus, it's much more difficult to re-route a cruise ship or group tour to avoid some kind of unexpected event than it is for an individual or small group (like my family of 4) to change course mid-trip. In fact, this is one of the reasons we're doing a family trip instead of just sending the kids on their school's trip to France. If something comes up (illness, accident, terror attack, etc) the school trip just gets cancelled. In our case, we can reroute and it's not a big deal.

I've lived through SARS, the swine flu (caught it myself before a vaccine was available) and any number of other calamities. I'm not invincible, but I'm also not interested in hiding under a rock. Life goes on.

I'd love to know if people who get this strain of coronavirus become immune to future infections.

Cassie

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Re: Anyone putting off overseas travel due to Corona virus?
« Reply #17 on: February 08, 2020, 01:17:20 PM »
We usually book cruises 6-12 months in advance to get the best prices. Once we received a email from RC that if we could leave in 39 days it was 500/person for a week. We went of course.  If most people book way in advance they might have a good idea of capacity. Plus the earlier you cancel the cheaper it as because you put down a deposit. That increases as it gets closer to the cruise day. If I was younger I wouldn’t be so concerned. But at 65 with asthma even a cold hits me hard.

MayDay

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Re: Anyone putting off overseas travel due to Corona virus?
« Reply #18 on: February 09, 2020, 05:47:58 AM »
The past norovirus outbreaks on cruises plus the current quarantines have put me off cruising on a big ship forever. I'd still do a river cruise or an Alaskan cruise I think.

I'm going to Europe for a week in April. I'm unconcerned about that. I wouldn't book travel to Asia right now though- China for obvious reasons, the rest of Asia mainly because it's a very unfamiliar culture to me and not somewhere if feel confident navigating in an emergency situation. I feel comfortable navigating Europe in an emergency situation as I ja e been there multiple times.

Metalcat

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Re: Anyone putting off overseas travel due to Corona virus?
« Reply #19 on: February 09, 2020, 06:07:36 AM »
We have a trip to Ireland in April, which at this point, I'm not concerned about.

I work in healthcare in an extremely high risk of exposure job with a very high population of Chinese patients, many of whom traveled to China for New Year's, my risk is much higher staying here and working than it is going to Ireland for a vacation.

iris lily

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Re: Anyone putting off overseas travel due to Corona virus?
« Reply #20 on: February 09, 2020, 10:01:09 AM »
What's weird to me is that, based on some of the responses, it seems the cruise and tour companies are cancelling trips that are many month away and paying big buck to do that. Do they really feel that things will be worse 7 months or longer from now or are they just erring on the side of caution?

Most likely doing it for financial rather than safety reasons. E.g. KLM airlines decided to cancel their flights to China only once people stopped buying them. Although I think it's weird that companies are already canceling cruises 6 months out, I guess it's because they're not hitting their minimum numbers of passengers to make them happen in the first place.
That makes sense and I hadn't thought of that. While it seems like a bit of overkill this early on, I guess if people who normally makes reservation months earlier aren't doing that, or are cancelling, then cruise ships, flights and tours will likely sideline themselves. I have several friends who are cancelling domestic trips (flights, cruises of tours) and opting to do road trips instead this year.

DH has already decided to drive to a Florida wedding rather than take an airplane at the end of this month.

We have to go to the East Coast in May, so I am planning on buying airline tickets now. But I have already warned DH  that if we are in full-blown coronavirus world, we either may not go or we will drive so we may eat the cost of those airline tickets.

Paul der Krake

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Re: Anyone putting off overseas travel due to Corona virus?
« Reply #21 on: February 09, 2020, 10:08:05 AM »
Going to Japan in 3 months. Not worried. Positively excited about the prospect of having fewer self-stick wielding visitors to compete with.

Cassie

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Re: Anyone putting off overseas travel due to Corona virus?
« Reply #22 on: February 09, 2020, 11:25:18 AM »
Getting a flu shot is making people more likely to get this other virus.  It was a interesting article but I cannot find the link now.

OtherJen

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Re: Anyone putting off overseas travel due to Corona virus?
« Reply #23 on: February 09, 2020, 11:45:11 AM »
Getting a flu shot is making people more likely to get this other virus.  It was a interesting article but I cannot find the link now.

I'm curious how that would even be determined for this coronavirus this early into the epidemic. We aren't even getting straight numbers about the actual number of cases because by all accounts, there is a shortage of test kits in the hardest-hit areas. I can't imagine there's enough of a record to determine who among the actual total number of infected patients did and did not receive a flu vaccine and whether the difference between the groups was statistically significant.

Zamboni

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Re: Anyone putting off overseas travel due to Corona virus?
« Reply #24 on: February 09, 2020, 11:47:26 AM »
^ and ^^
Nope, that is not how your immune system works . . . not at all.

Getting a flu shot absolutely does NOT make you more susceptible to various strains of the cold, which is what a corona virus is. Any article that says so is straight up false. Please don't spread false information like this.

I have a PhD and used to work in an immunology department. I understand how vaccinations, antibodies, and immunity work.

Edited to add: in fact, getting the flu shot every year might actually give you something called "crossover" resistance if you happen to have antibodies (that you develop each time you get vaccinated) that can attack a similar portion of a new strain of the flu. Every time you get a vaccine, your body puts the antibody it made into your own personal library of immunity molecules that it can recall, activate, and very rapidly replicate whenever doing so will fight a new virus. You should get the flu shot. Period.
« Last Edit: February 09, 2020, 11:52:07 AM by Zamboni »

OtherJen

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Re: Anyone putting off overseas travel due to Corona virus?
« Reply #25 on: February 09, 2020, 11:49:03 AM »
Back on topic: I wouldn't travel to China right now, and maybe not to surrounding countries. I would be less afraid of getting sick than I would be about getting stuck in quarantine for an indefinite period of time. It also seems like many of the big cities in China are operating at limited capacity so the restaurants and tourist sites would not be available.

I don't see a reason to avoid other areas of the world.

OtherJen

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Re: Anyone putting off overseas travel due to Corona virus?
« Reply #26 on: February 09, 2020, 11:50:39 AM »
^ and ^^
Nope, that is not how your immune system works . . . not at all.

Getting a flu shot absolutely does NOT make you more susceptible to various strains of the cold, which is what a corona virus is. Any article that says so is straight up false. Please don't spread false information like this.

I have a PhD and used to work in an immunology department. I understand how vaccinations, antibodies, and immunity work.

I'm not sure whether you're responding to me or Cassie. I have a PhD in immunology. There's no evidence suggesting that flu vaccination has any effect on susceptibility to other viral illness.

meghan88

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Re: Anyone putting off overseas travel due to Corona virus?
« Reply #27 on: February 09, 2020, 11:55:48 AM »
Going to Japan in 3 months. Not worried. Positively excited about the prospect of having fewer self-stick wielding visitors to compete with.

Ha!!  Great attitude.  IMO, times like these are the best times to book.

meghan88

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Re: Anyone putting off overseas travel due to Corona virus?
« Reply #28 on: February 09, 2020, 11:57:49 AM »
We're spending one night in Caen so DH can visit Juno beach, 3 or 4 nights in the Loire so I can see castles and then 4 or 5 nights in Paris. I'm really hoping the metro strikes will be over for good while we're there, but even if they haven't we'll just adapt and visit things closer to where we're staying. My kids are most interested in visiting as many bakeries as possible. Pretty sure that's not going to be a problem ;-)

Enjoy!!  We are in the south, enjoying spectacular weather.

MaybeBabyMustache

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Re: Anyone putting off overseas travel due to Corona virus?
« Reply #29 on: February 09, 2020, 12:55:52 PM »
I completed a trip to Japan the week everything was breaking out (got back on 1/24). I usually go to Tokyo 4-5x/year. Our group is not advising trips to Asia generally, and China is out altogether, as expected. I have a work trip to London planned in March, and so far see no reason not to go.

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Re: Anyone putting off overseas travel due to Corona virus?
« Reply #30 on: February 09, 2020, 01:03:22 PM »
I am so glad you asked.  I have plans to go to NYC in May and Hawaii in August.
I am waiting to purchase tickets/hotel room for NYC for a couple of weeks to see how this goes.  For Hawaii, if the virus is on the rise in the US I will consider canceling.
Right now it seems unlikely, but I am being reserved in case this illness is not contained.

Cassie

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Re: Anyone putting off overseas travel due to Corona virus?
« Reply #31 on: February 09, 2020, 01:08:52 PM »
Jen, thanks for your educated response. I have no medical background and just mentioned what I read about virus interference and was wondering if it was true or not.

LonerMatt

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Re: Anyone putting off overseas travel due to Corona virus?
« Reply #32 on: February 09, 2020, 04:10:26 PM »
We canceled our trip to China in April, less out of fear of corona virus and more out of acknowledging that with all the control and processing around travel it just would be a giant pain in the arse.

That and Chinese hospitals are pretty shithouse, so if we did catch it we'd be miserable, even if unlikely to die.

Villanelle

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Re: Anyone putting off overseas travel due to Corona virus?
« Reply #33 on: February 09, 2020, 04:49:54 PM »
I would still travel outside Asia, though maybe not on a cruise ship where germs spread like, well, the plague. https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/news/2020/02/08/coronavirus-cruise-ships-diamond-princess-cases-rise-japan-coast/4693112002/


Within Asia, China and Hong Kong would be out for me, but I'm not sure about other places.  Husband has a work trip to Japan in March and I'm curious to see what, if anything comes of that. 


JoJo

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Re: Anyone putting off overseas travel due to Corona virus?
« Reply #34 on: February 09, 2020, 08:12:49 PM »
roommate is leaving for Asia today without a return ticket.  No plans for China, though.  He tried to buy face masks in the PNW but everywhere is sold out.

Spiffy

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Re: Anyone putting off overseas travel due to Corona virus?
« Reply #35 on: February 10, 2020, 11:05:22 AM »
We are taking our son to Italy this summer for a high school graduation present. He is a big worrier and follows politics and current events closely and I am surprised he hasn't mentioned anything about this yet. I don't think it will make any difference to our travels. I used travel rewards for most of the trip and bought the cheapest/non refundable tickets, so I hope I am right!

Car Jack

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Re: Anyone putting off overseas travel due to Corona virus?
« Reply #36 on: February 10, 2020, 01:09:08 PM »
Our company (large nasdaq tech) has cancelled all presence at conferences and trade shows and cancelled trainings in the headquarters through April.  Some are going to be held via webex.  For employees who travel to Asia off business, they will be forced to stay home for 2 weeks after arriving back in the US.

Villanelle

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Re: Anyone putting off overseas travel due to Corona virus?
« Reply #37 on: February 10, 2020, 01:14:21 PM »
Our company (large nasdaq tech) has cancelled all presence at conferences and trade shows and cancelled trainings in the headquarters through April.  Some are going to be held via webex.  For employees who travel to Asia off business, they will be forced to stay home for 2 weeks after arriving back in the US.

Is this just travel in Asia, for all international travel, or for all conferences even within the US?
« Last Edit: February 10, 2020, 02:37:43 PM by Villanelle »

Capsu78

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Re: Anyone putting off overseas travel due to Corona virus?
« Reply #38 on: February 10, 2020, 01:45:19 PM »
We're spending one night in Caen so DH can visit Juno beach, 3 or 4 nights in the Loire so I can see castles and then 4 or 5 nights in Paris. I'm really hoping the metro strikes will be over for good while we're there, but even if they haven't we'll just adapt and visit things closer to where we're staying. My kids are most interested in visiting as many bakeries as possible. Pretty sure that's not going to be a problem ;-)

Enjoy!!  We are in the south, enjoying spectacular weather.

Stayed in Caen and visited Juno last June.  Fabulous trip and leave time for both the beach and the museum.

Capsu78

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Re: Anyone putting off overseas travel due to Corona virus?
« Reply #39 on: February 10, 2020, 01:58:45 PM »
What's weird to me is that, based on some of the responses, it seems the cruise and tour companies are cancelling trips that are many month away and paying big buck to do that. Do they really feel that things will be worse 7 months or longer from now or are they just erring on the side of caution?

Most likely doing it for financial rather than safety reasons. E.g. KLM airlines decided to cancel their flights to China only once people stopped buying them. Although I think it's weird that companies are already canceling cruises 6 months out, I guess it's because they're not hitting their minimum numbers of passengers to make them happen in the first place.
That makes sense and I hadn't thought of that. While it seems like a bit of overkill this early on, I guess if people who normally makes reservation months earlier aren't doing that, or are cancelling, then cruise ships, flights and tours will likely sideline themselves. I have several friends who are cancelling domestic trips (flights, cruises of tours) and opting to do road trips instead this year.

Having read a lot of business continuity plans across multiple industries, it feels to me like last Friday was a decision day to activate whatever plans many companies had.  Certain "triggers" had been met and escalated to the C suite, the BOD's had been given the risks/ plan options, the financial folks had gamed out the $$$ impacts, HR and the insurers had spoken, PR and media spokes polled and decisions were made to implement some long term emergency responses.  There is the crisis today- the news of the virus disrupting supply chains etc, and the crisis tomorrow if the suits and power skirts act misjudge the response or decision to not respond- which, of course, is a serious decision in itself.  Not sure what specifically is spooking them, but it seems triggers were pulled late last week.  And yes, I was booked on an Asia cruise that was cancelled, but had no intention of cancelling...spending my time trying to hold onto my flights and find a land based alternative.

Another Reader

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Re: Anyone putting off overseas travel due to Corona virus?
« Reply #40 on: February 12, 2020, 10:52:56 AM »
Just read about another cruise ship (Carnival) was denied port entry by 5 countries even though no one tested positive for Corona. Looks like Cambodia will allow them in but I wonder if this is going to be a new trend to deny port entry for cruise ships (and cargo ships) from China to the US. There are about 20 Chinese freighters waiting off shore now in the port of LA that are being denied entry. Maybe planes, trains, buses and cars too. Seems a bit over cautious but who knows!

Source?  Can't find in the LA Times and similar news outlets.

Cassie

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Re: Anyone putting off overseas travel due to Corona virus?
« Reply #41 on: February 12, 2020, 03:27:46 PM »
We love cruises but won’t be taking any for a year or two.

Paul der Krake

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Re: Anyone putting off overseas travel due to Corona virus?
« Reply #42 on: February 14, 2020, 12:37:26 AM »
I just realized you could lean FIRE easily by visiting China one day, then coming back. Free room & board & medical for two weeks. Plane tickets to China are cheap these days, so you could repeat as soon you are released.

Discuss.


former player

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Re: Anyone putting off overseas travel due to Corona virus?
« Reply #43 on: February 14, 2020, 02:40:06 AM »
1070 AM station plus friend is CG vessel inspector for ports of LA/LB and does cargo ship inspections. Also several diffetent TV news reports last night interviewed dock workers, longshoremen and truck drivers and all said work is nearly at a standstill. Truck drivers not able to pick up loads and not getting paid (independents) but union longshoremen are still getting paid.

ETA: just googled but couldn't find anything but it was on the 11 pm newscast night (plus you can see all the cargo ships sitting off the coast). Part of the problem is just the big slow down or shut down of production in Chinese factories due to the virus. Less shipments to US means less work for everyone involved with the cargo industry. Also ships and crews are quarantined for 14 days before they can off load and crews are denied shore leave.

This is from a week ago. Probably different now:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dailybreeze.com/2020/02/04/new-federal-regulations-battling-spread-of-coronavirus-could-affect-cargo-cruise-ship-industries-at-ports-of-la-and-long-beach/amp/
Live ships map isn't showing any problems at the moment- there are 4 cargo ships (green dots) anchored off and a number of tankers (red dots) but nothing unusual -

https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:-118.247/centery:33.704/zoom:12

BussoV6

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Re: Anyone putting off overseas travel due to Corona virus?
« Reply #44 on: February 14, 2020, 03:42:40 AM »
I've cancelled a business trip to China next week at the request of my Chinese hosts.

Still planning to visit Tucson and Hermosillo in mid March though. Flight is via Paris.

GuitarStv

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Re: Anyone putting off overseas travel due to Corona virus?
« Reply #45 on: February 14, 2020, 07:11:15 AM »
I just realized you could lean FIRE easily by visiting China one day, then coming back. Free room & board & medical for two weeks. Plane tickets to China are cheap these days, so you could repeat as soon you are released.

Discuss.


It's easier to just start stabbing people on the street.  Then you'll be arrested and put in jail.  Free laundry, free food, free accommodations, free heating.  Really no down side at all.

RetiredAt63

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Re: Anyone putting off overseas travel due to Corona virus?
« Reply #46 on: February 15, 2020, 07:28:43 PM »
I flew out of Sydney (Australia) yesterday and at the entrance to security they asked every one if they had been to China in the last 2 weeks.  The check-in machine also asked, so it looks like a person asking is a newer measure.

Lots of people wearing masks at both Sydney and Christchurch airports.  I think Air New Zealand has cancelled most if not all flights to China.

obstinate

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Re: Anyone putting off overseas travel due to Corona virus?
« Reply #47 on: February 16, 2020, 09:21:20 AM »
Imo it would be pretty dumb to travel to Asia right now. The personal risk from COVID-19 is pretty low, but if you bring it home with you and infect your city you would rightly feel pretty guilty a out the excess deaths you caused.

MrThatsDifferent

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Re: Anyone putting off overseas travel due to Corona virus?
« Reply #48 on: February 16, 2020, 10:47:16 PM »
Apparently everyone in China and Hong Kong is working from home as much as possible, maybe other countries too. Just seems like a miserable time to go there and get anything done.

frugaldrummer

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Re: Anyone putting off overseas travel due to Corona virus?
« Reply #49 on: February 18, 2020, 11:14:44 AM »
Here's a few ways to think about the travel issue:

1) Risk of quarantine. We won't know for another month or so whether quarantines are going to continue to be the response or if they will finally admit that the horse is out of the barn and there is no use in quarantining anyone anymore. I do not expect the attempt to restrict this virus to China to be successful because of the large percentage of cases that are asymptomatic or mild, like a common cold, and the inability to test everyone with a cold for the virus. (Also the current test gives a lot of false negatives.)  Traveling to any foreign country, even European countries, might include a risk of being quarantined there if that is the response to future outbreaks.  Soon the US will be unable to bring back all quarantined or infected Americans.  Do buy traveler's health insurance if you go and if you're traveling to third world countries, buy insurance with Medevac coverage.  On the other hand, a month from now they may finally admit it's too late for quarantines and your risk traveling may be no greater than your risk of contracting it at home.

2) Risk of contracting it while traveling: Planes with their recycled air, crowded airports, trains and buses may increase your risk if you aren't normally exposed to crowds. Washing your hands frequently and wearing a mask will protect you from a lot of that risk (not all). Masks are not available to buy but fairly easy to sew if you know someone with sewing skills. Not as good as a N95 mask but pretty good for this use (I've been making some for my family). I wouldn't go on a cruise ship right now as they are germ factories in the best of situations (but then again, I don't go on cruises anyway because I have the worlds worst motion sickness). 

3) Inexpensive travel opportunities: once the virus is widespread and quarantines are no longer being used, traveling may not pose a bigger risk than being home if you wash hands frequently and wear a mask. If you're young and healthy you may be able to pick up some killer travel deals because the travel industry will be hurting.

4) Perspective - the true fatality rate is most likely in the 0.3-0.6% range. This would put the likelihood of US deaths, if 20% of the population contracts the virus, at about 4-8 times a typical flu season's deaths.  Not exactly zombie apocalypse numbers, but concerning. It is unknown whether this virus will be seasonal or not - if it is, it may start to die down for the summer and recur next winter.

5) Countries not reporting coronavirus - do not assume that Africa, South America, and especially Indonesia are safe because they aren't reporting coronavirus cases yet. Indonesia almost certainly DOES have cases, based on the spread in surrounding countries, so the lack of reported cases is suspicious. Africa has numerous ties to China and almost certainly has the virus too but lacks the public health capacity to test for it efficiently.

In short - assume it will not be successfully contained to China, there's no predicting how other countries will respond as it starts to spread, washing hands and wearing a mask are your best protection, 90% of cases may be mild or asymptomatic, older people and people with underlying health conditions are at the most risk but even healthy young people can die of it. I predict that in 2 months we will have a much clearer picture of how other countries will respond to the eventual spread, and whether it will start to die down for the summer - or not.

Oh - and don't wait around for a vaccine. It will probably be two years before there is enough for routine vaccinations at a minimum.
« Last Edit: February 18, 2020, 11:19:11 AM by frugaldrummer »