The recent re-run of the ChooseFI podcast episode with Michael Kitces was encouraging for those pursuing or already FIRE'd. Kitces reminded the hosts that the Great Depression was an 89% loss of stock market value, it lasted for more than a decade, and yet the 4% rule WORKED even if you retired at the start of it. So wear a cup and stop freaking out.
With some of the angst displayed on other threads it seems like this virus episode should be a reckoning and those who don't have the stoicism to weather this market downturn without panic-selling should probably turn in their FIRE cards. They would be complete basket cases if such an event happened after they leave the cushy job so they might as well admit it now and pursue other hobbies. FIRE is not for everyone, never has been.
What is the math on that? I have 3.5% annual withdrawal and the stock market returns for that decade. I run out of money by year 15?
Initial Investment $1,200,000.00
Withdrawal $42,000.000 Return Withdrawal Ending Balance
$1,200,000.00
Year 1 -11.91% $(42,000.000) $1,146,566.40
Year 2 -28.48% $(42,000.000) $778,024.29
Year 3 -47.07% $(42,000.000) $369,808.26
Year 4 -15.15% $(42,000.000) $271,782.31
Year 5 46.59% $(42,000.000) $356,405.68
Year 6 -5.94% $(42,000.000) $293,235.18
Year 7 41.37% $(42,000.000) $372,546.58
Year 8 27.92% $(42,000.000) $434,561.58
Year 9 -38.59% $(42,000.000) $224,864.27
Year 10 25.21% $(42,000.000) $239,552.55
Year 11 -5.45% $(42,000.000) $184,496.94
Year 12 -15.29% $(42,000.000) $114,287.36
Year 13 -17.86% $(42,000.000) $51,875.63
Year 14 12.43% $(42,000.000) $16,323.78
Year 15 19.45% $(42,000.000) $(22,501.25)